NationStates Jolt Archive

Middle Eastern intrigue is almost Byzantine. It's impossible to even tell who all the players are and what their true motives might be. Actually, it reminds me of pre-World War I Europe. Here's just a partial list off the top of my head:

Iran
Sunni Muslim groups
Shittie Muslim groups
International Muslim groups
Al Qieda
Hezbolla
Syria
Jordan
Lebanon
Israel
Germany
France
Great Britian
USA
China
Russia
Turkey
Australia
Japan
North Korea

Possible questions for discussion ( feel free to add your own ):

1. What other nations/groups have a stake or interest in outcomes in the Middle East?

2. What are the possible goals/objectives of the various players?

3. Who has the greatest reasons for continuted turmoil in the region?

4. Who has the greatest reasons for stability in the region?

5. What are the possible outcomes given the current situation?

6. What is the most likely outcome given the current situation?

7. What is the worst-case scenario?

8. What can be done to head off the worst-case scenario, what players will be involved, what should they do, and how should they do it?

9. What are your personal feelings about all of the above?

Your wrong so sit down. I am very mean, I know. Look there is no way in hell will there ever be a World War III. It won't happen. Even if there was one the Middle East wouldn't cause it. I don't expect to se Iran, Al quieda, and a special gust appearence of North Korea, to team up and fight the U.S. and allies.

If anything ever came close to it the U.S. would just bomb the hell out of everyone.

I doubt there will be another World War... They all know it would mean Armageddon. Smile, nod and agree, or your country gets it...

Fear really does rule the world. And to question it would mean anialation.

Shittie Muslim groups


*Shi'ite/Shii'a

Or are you implying something?

SHITTIE MUSLIMS HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! LOL!!!HEHEHEHEH HEHE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!@$#%^&%*##!~!@~!!!~


Learn how to spell before you post again.

Meh. Spelling mistakes happen all the time.

SHITTIE MUSLIMS HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHA!!!! LOL!!!HEHEHEHEH HEHE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!@$#%^&%*##!~!@~!!!~


Learn how to spell before you post again.
Very mature. n00b. :rolleyes: shut-up and sit down before you start annoying decent players. It was a typo.

It would be really nice if someone would actually like ... you know ... discuss the TOPIC! Sheesh!

1. What other nations/groups have a stake or interest in outcomes in the Middle East?

Saudi Arabia and more moderate muslim states.

Religious groups access to holy places in Israel.

2. What are the possible goals/objectives of the various players?

Iran + Hezbollah - Complete destruction of Israel or at least a massively weakend state.

Israel - Pacification (violent or otherwise) of those they see as terrorists and securing of their borders.

US - Ending of troubles, although if it really came down to it would side with Israel.

Europe + Wider world - Ending of tensions generally.

3. Who has the greatest reasons for continuted turmoil in the region?

Terrorist/Political/Freedom Movements - If for nothing else than the constant purveying of their ideals to the world.

Isreali Far Right - To keep their political strength high and maintain support from both internationally and locally.

Iran - To keep attention away from them to a more potent flash point.

4. Who has the greatest reasons for stability in the region?

Israeli and Arab populace - To stop political turmoil and to allow economic growth of region.

US - Won't have to keep troops near by (Med Fleet).

Moderate Muslim Nations - Will improve their world status and will allow economic growth.

5. What are the possible outcomes given the current situation?

War - If war were ever to happen, it would most likely, although by no means certain end in arab defeat, but a gurrilla war would almost certainly happen and civil casualties would be horriffic. If Israel were to be beaten, they have nukes, small ones, but still, could be very very nasty. (25% Chance)

Peace - This would take a lot of concessions by both sides but if it worked, it would be both brilliant and stabilising for the region. (10% Chance)

Continuance of current situation - Most likely as no-one wants to risk open war and no-one will give into peace. (65% Chance)

6. What is the most likely outcome given the current situation?

Carry on as it is.

7. What is the worst-case scenario?

War ending in Israeli defeat with their use of nukes as last chance victory.

8. What can be done to head off the worst-case scenario, what players will be involved, what should they do, and how should they do it?

US to guarantee Israeli state.
Israel to have nukes taken off them.
Palestinian State to become internationally recognised.
Hezbollah and other movements leaders to be tried in international court.

Ideally

9. What are your personal feelings about all of the above?

To be honest it think things will remain as they are for a long time. I don't see an end to it unless both sides make major concessions.

discuss ;) :D

I don't belive in a world war like the previous two, nation against nation. I think that the violance will mostly stay in the middle east. But there might be agression and violance all over the world like suicide bombs etc.. For palestinians and Israels I think that the only real solution is negotions, just like in northern ireland. Nothing progressed untill both sides started to negotiate.

I went to all that trouble to answer every damn question....

I went to all that trouble to answer every damn question....
Well, you didn't have to, but I'm glad you did. :)



To be honest I think things will remain as they are for a long time. I don't see an end to it unless both sides make major concessions.

discuss ;) :D
How likely do you think it is that will happen?

Middle Eastern intrigue is almost Byzantine. It's impossible to even tell who all the players are and what their true motives might be. Actually, it reminds me of pre-World War I Europe. Here's just a partial list off the top of my head:

Iran
Sunni Muslim groups
Shittie Muslim groups
International Muslim groups
Al Qieda
Hezbolla
Syria
Jordan
Lebanon
Israel
Germany
France
Great Britian
USA
China
Russia
Turkey
Australia
Japan
North Korea

Possible questions for discussion ( feel free to add your own ):

1. What other nations/groups have a stake or interest in outcomes in the Middle East?

2. What are the possible goals/objectives of the various players?

3. Who has the greatest reasons for continuted turmoil in the region?

4. Who has the greatest reasons for stability in the region?

5. What are the possible outcomes given the current situation?

6. What is the most likely outcome given the current situation?

7. What is the worst-case scenario?

8. What can be done to head off the worst-case scenario, what players will be involved, what should they do, and how should they do it?

9. What are your personal feelings about all of the above?

CALM DOWN. IT IS NOT THAT COMPLICATED.

The US + UK will control the "situation".

France, Germany, Russia, and China will shut up, shortly, when it becomes obvious that they are powerless to do anything meaningful. (But, all of them actually want to eliminate Muslim terrorists, and that WILL HAPPEN, in spite of "official" opposition, by their phoney politicians; INCLUDING US DEMOCRATS).

No one on the "Top of Your Head" list has total control (including "USA" and "Great Britain" as monoliths). Factions in some of them will have controlling inputs, and the problem will go away, but you jerks will still complain. Then, on demand, you-all will start your next "conspiracy-theory", with the prompting of the world's liberal (mis-guided) media.

CALM DOWN. IT IS NOT THAT COMPLICATED.

The US + UK will control the "situation".

France, Germany, Russia, and China will shut up, shortly, when it becomes obvious that they are powerless to do anything meaningful. (But, all of them actually want to eliminate Muslim terrorists, and that WILL HAPPEN, in spite of "official" opposition, by their phoney politicians; INCLUDING US DEMOCRATS).

No one on the "Top of Your Head" list has total control (including "USA" and "Great Britain" as monoliths). Factions in some of them will have controlling inputs, and the problem will go away, but you jerks will still complain. Then, on demand, you-all will start your next "conspiracy-theory", with the prompting of the world's liberal (mis-guided) media.

Have none of you ostriches listened to talk-radio since 1960?

How likely do you think it is that will happen?


Unless the US (with allied support of course ;) ) puts pressure on the Israeli government as well as the Palestinians, i think its highly unlikely.
The problem is unless the violent groups cease their attacks and resort to more peaceful methods then they will never gain international sympathy. Peoples opinions will change if they see a peaceful protestor get shot by an israeli soldier, and more importantly there were to be no attacks afterwards. The palestinians would change from terrorists to 'plucky freedom fighters'. An unjust tag, but it could happen.

The US would have to guarantee Israeli safety, but the israelis wouldn't like that, not after the 6 Day War and other conflicts where they were on their own. So its a quandry, but i believe that unless the US, as the only country who could do this, along with UN backing (for international support and legitimacy), could provide the necessary threat to bring both parties into line. But many would see it as the US interferring again, but without a power who could defeat both countries, no mediator would work.

Unless the US (with allied support of course ;) ) puts pressure on the Israeli government as well as the Palestinians, i think its highly unlikely.
The problem is unless the violent groups cease their attacks and resort to more peaceful methods then they will never gain international sympathy. Peoples opinions will change if they see a peaceful protestor get shot by an israeli soldier, and more importantly there were to be no attacks afterwards. The palestinians would change from terrorists to 'plucky freedom fighters'. An unjust tag, but it could happen.

The US would have to guarantee Israeli safety, but the israelis wouldn't like that, not after the 6 Day War and other conflicts where they were on their own. So its a quandry, but i believe that unless the US, as the only country who could do this, along with UN backing (for international support and legitimacy), could provide the necessary threat to bring both parties into line. But many would see it as the US interferring again, but without a power who could defeat both countries, no mediator would work.

Why are you asking him? What are his credentials? Watch what happens in the next 6 months.

Unless the US (with allied support of course ;) ) puts pressure on the Israeli government as well as the Palestinians, i think its highly unlikely.
The problem is unless the violent groups cease their attacks and resort to more peaceful methods then they will never gain international sympathy. Peoples opinions will change if they see a peaceful protestor get shot by an israeli soldier, and more importantly there were to be no attacks afterwards. The palestinians would change from terrorists to 'plucky freedom fighters'. An unjust tag, but it could happen.

The US would have to guarantee Israeli safety, but the israelis wouldn't like that, not after the 6 Day War and other conflicts where they were on their own. So its a quandry, but i believe that unless the US, as the only country who could do this, along with UN backing (for international support and legitimacy), could provide the necessary threat to bring both parties into line. But many would see it as the US interferring again, but without a power who could defeat both countries, no mediator would work.
I suspect you may be correct, although even the US has limited ability to influence things in the Middle East. The hatreds go back into prehistory and the "thinking" of many Islamists is not very amenable to change.

Lots of oil there and WW3 if it starts will be fought for the oil reserves of Earth. Oil consumption will go up and the production will go down and will be more expensive. expect a price of 100-150$ per barrel in 2010.

I don't think ya can tell if the Middle East will lead to WWIII

There is only one way it will turn into WWIII, and that is if the Middle East is left alone. Before 9/11, there was only a little US involvement in the region, but that was mostly to monitor oil supplies. The world didn't pay much attention. However, fundementalism was growing. If it was left alone for a decade or so longer, it'd probably result in a massive overthrow of every Muslim state from Morroco to Pakistan, and threaten Israeli security. It could probably gain WMDs easily, and may have also encrouched on Europe or India.