NationStates Jolt Archive

The issue of the EU as a superpower is often discussed on these forums. And after doing some reading I have found a reason for why it never will. Unless it reaches the position soon, under which circumstances, it won't last for long.

The reason is population. The western European population is on the decline. Birth rates are way below even sustenance level. In Germany the birthrate is 1.3 children per family. Spain and Italy have roughly the same birthrate, Even France, which has long running programs to up their birthrate is set to lose population. Population decline can also be seen in Eastern Europe.

Immigration is only a temporary solution. It can be expected that almost all immigrants will adopt the reproduction rates of the new country within one to two generations.

Besides just having less people, these nations will have less young people. Germany can expect to have 1/3 of it's population retired by the year 2050. School enrollment will be down 12%. Similar trends that can be seen throughout Western Europe.

This aging population will demand social services from the working ages. Expensive social services. European nations won't have enough resources to fund even these programs though. Cuts will have to be made. 12% in education is natural, but not enough. Military cuts are certain.

Elderly populations tend to be more timid than younger populations. As stated earlier a greater focus on elderly social programs will be in line.

Nations that will maintain vigorous young populations include China, the US, India, Indonesia, many african nations, many South American nations and Australia. This is where the balance of power will rest.

This population curse will harm the EU more than any invader.

they won't be a superpower because i won't let them!!!

if you want a superpower in the making, look at China!

they won't be a superpower because i won't let them!!!

if you want a superpower in the making, look at China!
China's probably the most likely next superpower. But it has hurdles to overcome.

The problem isnt birth rates. Foreigners coming to Europe can make up for that. The thing is, we need 44 million foreigners by 2050 to sustain population grownth rate, and our societies will be tested due to this strain.

The issue of the EU as a superpower is often discussed on these forums. And after doing some reading I have found a reason for why it never will. Unless it reaches the position soon, under which circumstances, it won't last for long.


Your point has been taken. However, the University of Michigan will still be at the Rose Bowl this year ;)

Your point has been taken. However, the University of Michigan will still be at the Rose Bowl this year ;)
all that matters is we beat Michigan. Nothing else matters.

The problem isnt birth rates. Foreigners coming to Europe can make up for that. The thing is, we need 44 million foreigners by 2050 to sustain population grownth rate, and our societies will be tested due to this strain.
only 44 million?

Here's a site that claims you'll need 700 million.

http://web.inter.nl.net/users/Paul.Treanor/nohumans.html

Oh, yeah, sources include:

Friday's New York Times
This website
http://web.inter.nl.net/users/Paul.Treanor/nohumans.html
This website
http://www.os-connect.com/pop/

only 44 million?

Here's a site that claims you'll need 700 million.

http://web.inter.nl.net/users/Paul.Treanor/nohumans.html


http://www.nidi.nl/public/demos/dm99epc1.html

1 source, that makes a contestable point.

Let's face facts people! Only one thing will save the EU...my "Equipment". Now this would not be a free service, I'm thinking 1 Billion dollars. Once the payment is in my account, I'll bring my testicles and myself to Paris, France.

1 source, that makes a contestable point.

From the Eurostat:
http://europa.eu.int/abc/keyfigures/sizeandpopulation/older/index_en.htm


700 Million people are needed to maintain our population? mmm

Lets imagine that in this moment, breeding and imigration to Europe stops. We are now, 380.8 million. Of those, 40 million are 20 years old or less. That means that by 250, there would still be 40 million europeans, though old. If we took 700 millions, our population would explode..

Let's face facts people! Only one thing will save the EU...my "Equipment". Now this would not be a free service, I'm thinking 1 Billion dollars. Once the payment is in my account, I'll bring my testicles and myself to Paris, France.



ROFL!

From the Eurostat:
http://europa.eu.int/abc/keyfigures/sizeandpopulation/older/index_en.htm


700 Million people are needed to maintain our population? mmm

Lets imagine that in this moment, breeding and imigration to Europe stops. We are now, 380.8 million. Of those, 140 million are 20 years old or less. That means that by 250, there would still be 140 million europeans, though old. If we took 700 millions, our population would explode..
a goodly number of the graphs on this page seem to support my assertion...
And I'm not saying that that one site is correct, just that there is the remote possibility of such occuring.

a goodly number of the graphs on this page seem to support my assertion...
And I'm not saying that that one site is correct, just that there is the remote possibility of such occuring.

Ah yes, there are many scenarios that point to population decline. But there also scenarios that point to population growth, or to stabilization. They are just scenarios.

Personally, i am willing to contribute to the EU population growth Effort :fluffle:

LETS MATE!

LETS MATE!
only if you're a chick.

Ah yes, there are many scenarios that point to population decline. But there also scenarios that point to population growth, or to stabilization. They are just scenarios.

Personally, i am willing to contribute to the EU population growth Effort :fluffle:

LETS MATE!

Let's mate sounds so lame. Lets try "triple-x throwdown."

another reason i think is a couple of different aims of the nations

I think we should ban condoms. That ought to bring back those 8-children families.

Yeah Europe is doomed unless they get their act together and start with the baby making. I wonder if perhaps futuristic fertility drugs might save them though, so that women could have babies when they are in their 40s and 50s or perhaps even in their 60s. If I was a woman I don't think I would mind having kids if I could have them when I was old and fat, but having them when I was young and hot would be a drag.