NationStates Jolt Archive

In January 2005, the first elections in Iraq will occur. What are your opinions about the possible results and/or consequences of these elections, considering the following:

- Iraq as massive ethnic divisions, between Sunni, Shia, and kurds.
- The economy of Iraq is, for all efects, shattered
- A large part of the infrastructure of Iraq as been destroyed
- There are thousands of foreign troops in Iraq (both US and Allies, and Foreign Islamists) battling each other
- There are most likely Iraqis involved in armed resistance
- Many Iraquis may have lost relatives to the US or the insurgents
- There is no Democratic culture or tradition in Iraq
- Moderate candidates will most likely be supported, and associated with the US
- Extremist candidates, considering the mess of the confusion, have a better opportunity to get good results.
- ... (more stuff I cant remember, but someone will)

elections or not, Iraq will need years to be democracy.

I see two possible scenarios but I'm biased :p.

1. Allawi wins. Violence continues but generally speaking all three major ethnic/religious groups are able to find common ground and slowly rebuild Iraq.

2. Sistani wins. :p I'm being facetious. By this I mean the religious Shiites gain the majority with a mandate to create a more or less religious state (perhaps a true theocracy). This is where all hell breaks loose.

A. If any major legislation passes, the Kurds are guaranteed to secede. This brings Turkey back into the picture and it just gets worse from there.

B. I seriously doubt there will be any concessions made to differences with the Sunnis (Sistani doesn't seem to grasp the evils of "the tyranny of the majority"). Expect more not less violence if this is the case.

C. It's doubtful that the Shiites will allow any secession and will try to bring the others in by force. I could be wrong. It's been known to happen from time to time. ;)

The best that the Iraqi elections can hope for, and I think it will determine the final fate of Iraq, is that no ethnic group boycotts the election. If one group deliberately boycotts and avoids the election completely, that's trouble. Big trouble.