NationStates Jolt Archive

That is... you liberals have four years to learn why you lost this years election. Hint: You're all wrong all the time.

I haven't been smiling so often since four years ago. I'll hand out this cheese pre-emptively because I can hear the whine coming. You all have a great day!

Well, before the thread gets locked, let me just say that a similar situation exists for the Republicans. They have no excuses now. They are in control of the House, The Senate and the Presidency. So if the country isn't better in four years, they have nobody to blame.

---Kerry won. Here are the facts.---

I know you don't want to hear it. You can't face one more hung chad.
But I don't have a choice. As a journalist examining that messy sausage
called American democracy, it's my job to tell you who got the most
votes in the deciding states. Tuesday, in Ohio and New Mexico, it was John
Kerry.

Most voters in Ohio thought they were voting for Kerry. CNN's exit poll
showed Kerry beating Bush among Ohio women by 53 percent to 47
percent. Kerry also defeated Bush among Ohio's male voters 51 percent to 49
percent. Unless a third gender voted in Ohio, Kerry took the state.

So what's going on here? Answer: the exit polls are accurate. Pollsters
ask, "Who did you vote for?" Unfortunately, they don't ask the crucial,
question, "Was your vote counted?" The voters don't know.

Here's why. Although the exit polls show that most voters in Ohio
punched cards for Kerry-Edwards, thousands of these votes were simply not
recorded. This was predictable and it was predicted. [See
TomPaine.com, "An Election Spoiled Rotten," November 1.]


---Whose Votes Are Discarded?---

And not all votes spoil equally. Most of those votes, say every
official report, come from African-American and minority precincts. (To learn
more, click here.)

We saw this in Florida in 2000. Exit polls showed Gore with a plurality
of at least 50,000, but it didn't match the official count. That's
because the official, Secretary of State Katherine Harris, excluded 179,855
spoiled votes. In Florida, as in Ohio, most of these votes lost were
cast on punch cards where the hole wasn't punched through
completely-leaving a 'hanging chad,'-or was punched extra times. Whose cards were
discarded? Expert statisticians investigating spoilage for the government
calculated that 54 percent of the ballots thrown in the dumpster were
cast by black folks. (To read the report from the U.S. Civil Rights
Commission, click here .)

And here's the key: Florida is terribly typical. The majority of
ballots thrown out (there will be nearly 2 million tossed out from Tuesday's
election) will have been cast by African American and other minority
citizens.


---The Impact Of Challenges---

First and foremost, Kerry was had by chads. But the Democrat wasn't
punched out by punch cards alone. There were also the 'challenges.' That's
a polite word for the Republican Party of Ohio's use of an old Ku Klux
Klan technique: the attempt to block thousands of voters of color at
the polls. In Ohio, Wisconsin and Florida, the GOP laid plans for poll
workers to ambush citizens under arcane laws-almost never used-allowing
party-designated poll watchers to finger individual voters and demand
they be denied a ballot. The Ohio courts were horrified and federal law
prohibits targeting of voters where race is a factor in the challenge.
But our Supreme Court was prepared to let Republicans stand in the
voting booth door.


---Enchanted State's Enchanted Vote---

Now, on to New Mexico, where a Kerry plurality-if all votes are
counted-is more obvious still. Before the election, in TomPaine.com, I wrote,
"John Kerry is down by several thousand votes in New Mexico, though not
one ballot has yet been counted."

How did that happen? It's the spoilage, stupid; and the provisional
ballots.

CNN said George Bush took New Mexico by 11,620 votes. Again, the
network total added up to that miraculous, and non-existent, '100 percent' of
ballots cast.

New Mexico reported in the last race a spoilage rate of 2.68 percent,
votes lost almost entirely in Hispanic, Native American and poor
precincts-Democratic turf. From Tuesday's vote, assuming the same ballot-loss
rate, we can expect to see 18,000 ballots in the spoilage bin.

Spoilage has a very Democratic look in New Mexico. Hispanic voters in
the Enchanted State, who voted more than two to one for Kerry, are five
times as likely to have their vote spoil as a white voter. Counting
these uncounted votes would easily overtake the Bush 'plurality.'


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