NationStates Jolt Archive

As most of you know Im a British Conservative who sympathises with The Republicans in the US. In spite of my support for the republicans I got to thinking about yesterdays leaked exit poll that suggested a win for kerry could be on the cards.

If you were a democrat and saw that poll and hadnt yet voted isnt there a greater chance you wouldnt bother to go and vote? If you thought the democrats had it in the bag, perhaps you would succumb to the school of thought that the democrats wouldnt miss your vote and you could just go about your business without waiting about at the polling place.

If you were a republican on the other hand, and hadnt yet voted wouldnt a leaked exit poll suggesting a democrat victory motivate you to get off your ass and go down and vote before it was too late?

[/end ramble]

I'm not sure how they do exit polls in the UK, but here an exit poll favoring a candidate usually inspires their party to vote more then the other party, who assumes their candidate has lost. An example of this is the 2002 House and Senate race in which pro-democrat exit polls were blamed for supressing the republican vote.

I'm not sure how they do exit polls in the UK, but here an exit poll favoring a candidate usually inspires their party to vote more then the other party, who assumes their candidate has lost. An example of this is the 2002 House and Senate race in which pro-democrat exit polls were blamed for supressing the republican vote.
Ah thanks for the info.

I voted republican this election because I was tired of Hollywood telling me to vote Democrat. Base on what I last saw about the poles, many people feel the same way.

A lot of people were fed up about the integrity of this election and decided not to vote because of it. There was too much negative press and mind games. I don't know how much of the election process you were able to witness from the UK. It was really bad.

I'm not sure how they do exit polls in the UK, but here an exit poll favoring a candidate usually inspires their party to vote more then the other party, who assumes their candidate has lost. An example of this is the 2002 House and Senate race in which pro-democrat exit polls were blamed for supressing the republican vote.

And yet, despite this, the Republicans still picked up a couple of House and Senate seats. Ironic isn't it!

As most of you know Im a British Conservative who sympathises with The Republicans in the US. In spite of my support for the republicans I got to thinking about yesterdays leaked exit poll that suggested a win for kerry could be on the cards.

If you were a democrat and saw that poll and hadnt yet voted isnt there a greater chance you wouldnt bother to go and vote? If you thought the democrats had it in the bag, perhaps you would succumb to the school of thought that the democrats wouldnt miss your vote and you could just go about your business without waiting about at the polling place.

If you were a republican on the other hand, and hadnt yet voted wouldnt a leaked exit poll suggesting a democrat victory motivate you to get off your ass and go down and vote before it was too late?

[/end ramble]

Actually, the most accepted view of this is that people like to go with a winner and things like this depress turnout for the losing side. This happened in 2000 where people in line in the panhandle area of Florida didnt bother to vote because the election had been called for Gore while the polls were still open.

In all fairness though, the mainstream media didnt really disseminate the exit poll info. So I dont think it had much of any effect.

And yet, despite this, the Republicans still picked up a couple of House and Senate seats. Ironic isn't it!

no. a depress effect does not ensure anything. It is just a factor.

no. a depress effect does not ensure anything. It is just a factor.

I know but if the Republican Vote wasn't suppressed as someone stated, how many more seats could they have picked up?

Actually, the most accepted view of this is that people like to go with a winner and things like this depress turnout for the losing side. This happened in 2000 where people in line in the panhandle area of Florida didnt bother to vote because the election had been called for Gore while the polls were still open.

In all fairness though, the mainstream media didnt really disseminate the exit poll info. So I dont think it had much of any effect.

That makes no sense. Would there be an anti-war campaing if the troops where comeing home? Would there have been public outcry over Veitman? Would homer have voted on prop 24 (from the simpsons) if he decided not to have that bbq? If we think somethings going to happen we don't rush out to make sure.