NationStates Jolt Archive

Considering what I am looking at right now, I'm going to go ahead and call it:

It will be a short race, but Bush will win by at least 20 Electoral votes. And, of course, the popular votes still don't matter, so I'm not looking at them.

I have to agree with you there. At present it has Bush with 211 seats, and there's about another 90 that he's likely to get. It doesn't look like Kerry's going to get Florida, Michigan or Ohio (and that's 64 seats for those three).

Based on the C-SPAN chart, with coming up to three quarters (countrywide average) of the precincts called (actually 72.4% at time of posting, but it's changing all the time, so just ignore that), if things stay as they are we're looking at this for the final result:

G. W. Bush: 274 - J. F. Kerry: 264

So currently it's a 10-point win for Bush, with Iowa currently the closest with Kerry leading by just 1% with 71% of the votes counted. District of Columbia is the most distant with John Kerry taking the district with 81% of the vote.

As everyone knows, the key battleground states is Ohio, currently leaning towards a Bush win. If Ohio swings towards Kerry, then he will have a very clear chance of victory in this election, however, if Bush takes Ohio but Kerry can turn New Mexico in his favour it could all come down to Alaska and Hawaii. If he doesn't, however, or the Republicans take Iowa or Wisconsin, it's all over for John Kerry.

Things aren't looking good for Kerry's chances, with the Democrats hanging on by a single percentage point in three the states they must take to win the election even if they take Ohio - Nevada, Iowa and Wisconsin. A lack of change in New Mexico and Ohio coupled with their slipping percentages in those three now-key states means that, while not dead yet, the Democratic presidential bid is in very ill health indeed.

I'll be updating this every 5 minutes until I give up and go to bed (5:03AM here in the UK)

Let's take a look at the US map well its all red here and just a little blue up here by new york and mass. Well i think Dubya wins.

Yes, but that's also where a lot of people live.

Based on the C-SPAN chart, with just over half (countrywide average) of the precincts called (actually 52% at time of posting, but it's changing all the time, so just ignore that), if things stay as they are we're looking at:

G. W. Bush: 284 - J. F. Kerry: 254.
Note for Dummies: These aren't the current results and they are simply what the final result will be if the voting trends are continued right up until the finish.

So currently it's a 40-point win for Bush, with New Hampshire currently the closest with the Kerry leading by just 1% with 34% to go, and District of Columbia the most distant with John Kerry taking the state with 81% of the vote.

I'll be updating this every 5 minutes until I give up and go to bed (4:35AM here in the UK)

Note for dummy: 284-254 = 30 not 40.

Let's take a look at the US map well its all red here and just a little blue up here by new york and mass. Well i think Dubya wins.
That's immaterial. What's important is the electoral votes. California has 55 for eg. So that's far more important to win than all the mid-western states combined.

From what I can see, I can't see Kerry getting more than 236 seats.

Let's take a look at the US map well its all red here and just a little blue up here by new york and mass. Well i think Dubya wins.
What you fail to realize is that all those "little areas of blue" are populated by many more people than the vast expanses of red you see.
All things considered. George Jr. wins again. And I called it months ago, so do think you have any profound sense of precognition.

Note for dummy: 284-254 = 30 not 40.
That'll teach me not to copy a number out of an Excel cell worked out with old data. Or be so damn sleepy.

From what I can see, I can't see Kerry getting more than 236 seats.
I'd say Kerry will get 255. Still short, though. Unless something starts to happen in Ohio to reverse the current trend.

People see lots of red, where I see lots of farmland...not people.

District of Columbia the most distant with John Kerry taking the state with 81% of the vote
Or the DISTRICT for that matter.

:)