NationStates Jolt Archive

I want to run a running tally here of the electoral vote.

Because using the Internet as more than a forum for discussion is pointless. The Internet is a tool, not a toy: http://www.cnn.com/ <-- there is a map on the right that will start turning colors (per state) as polls close.

Or Try the one on C-Span here:

http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/election_night_2004/us_map_govsenhouse/index.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Georgia goes to Bush

15-0

Kentucky goes to Bush

23-0

West Virginia goes to Bush

28-0

Georgia goes to Bush

15-0

With 1% of the precincts reporting in. 0-0

Vermont goes to Kerry

28-3

Indiana goes to Bush

39-3

West Virginia goes to Bush

28-0

With 0% of the precincts reporting in. 0-0

are any of these states swing states?
or are they falling the way they were expected to?
is it possible when writing the results you could put in how they were expected to go?
so that us non-americans can get some idea of how its going

With 0% of the precincts reporting in. 0-0

Race for President
Candidate Votes Vote% Electoral votes
Bush 1899722 57% 39
Kerry 1425813 43% 3
Nader 11725 0% 0

Oh, snap. Doesn't look like 0% to me.

All the states that have been projected are the way they figured they would. The only thing that is going astray is that Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina are too close to call where they were supposed to be auto-Bush.

Race for President
Candidate Votes Vote% Electoral votes
Bush 1899722 57% 39
Kerry 1425813 43% 3
Nader 11725 0% 0

Oh, snap. Doesn't look like 0% to me.

I was going with this.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/WV/P/00/index.html

And this.

http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2004/general/by_state/pres_sen_gov/WV.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

0%

Maine goes to Kerry

39-7

66-77

this is the lastest count from CNN as of 8:08

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/

Mass goes to Kerry

39-19

Connecticut goes to Kerry

39-28

EC votes..

Kerry 77 - Bush 66

New Jersey goes to Kerry

39-43

Deleware goes to Kerry

39-46

Maryland goes to Kerry

39-56

DC goes to Kerry

39-59

Illinois goes to Kerry

39-80

It's 77-66, Kerry leads. ...and Bush has 57% of the popular vote so far...

Bush has: Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, and West Virginia.

Kerry has: Illinois, Vermont, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Deleware, Maryland, and Washington, DC.

Illinois goes to Kerry

39-80
Your math isn't matching up with CNN.

Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennesee, South Carolina goes to Bush

74-77

Arkansas is at 56% Bush, 43% Kerry, but only 4% of precincts have reported. Polls here are still open for 12 minutes.

Your math isn't matching up with CNN.
Yeah, I was screwing it up.

74-77

102-77 8:38 Est

Bush takes Virginia, North Carolina, Alabama
102-77

A Slew of states at 900 Eastern
156-112

155-112, not 156

Oh, and all of the stuff CNN reports are "Projected winners" and we know what happened last time around with "projected winners"

Hell, Gay Marriage is banned in Arkansas and Blanche Lincoln was re-elected to US Senate like 2 hours ago with 0% precincts reporting.

Mississippi goes for Bush
162-112

169-112 according to CSpan. LA went to Bush.

and according to CNN it's 162-112...same states to same candidates.

171-112 msnbc

CNN and CSpan got back in line and both are reporting 170-112.

GOt my connection back.
210-188

210-188 on ABC

Looking at the poll results on Cspan, it looks to me like it could actually come down to Ohio and Florida (surprise surprise)

http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/election_night_2004/us_map_govsenhouse/index.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS
if you haven't seen this. Live updates with percentages of reported votes.

I swear I thought from the NBC and CBS coverage here in Australia, it said 207-199

Looks like Bush is going to win Florida, Ohio is tight.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2004/politics101/politics101_ecmap.html

[QUOTE=Mac the Man]210-188 on ABC

Looking at the poll results on Cspan, it looks to me like it could actually come down to Ohio and Florida (surprise surprise)

QUOTE]

No, Florida looks locked. Amazing what happens when the News doesnt discourage the panhandle conservative voters like they did last time.

Kerry has to win Ohio. If Ohio goes Bush, this is basically over. I wonder what excuse the kool aid drinkers will use with regards to Ohio? I mean Jeb Bush isnt governor there.

Looks like Bush is going to win Florida, Ohio is tight.
Bush leads by 300 000 in Florida, so I think we can say it's his (94% of vote counted)
Bush leads by 150 000 in Ohio (59% of vote in). So it's not that tight in Ohio. We can give Ohio to GWB.

Yeah, the only reason they're not calling Florida is because it was fought over so hard in '00. With the count 52-47%, Bush and 97% reporting, my quick math says Kerry can't win, even if he wins every vote in the other 3%.

Bush leads by 300 000 in Florida, so I think we can say it's his (94% of vote counted)
Bush leads by 150 000 in Ohio (59% of vote in). So it's not that tight in Ohio. We can give Ohio to GWB.
Sadly, I have to agree. CNN is calling it by 5% with 64% of Ohio and there seems to be no way for Kerry to pull it out. Florida is worse with 97% in Bush has a 5% lead.

That is that folks!

I may uncork a bottle of very strong booze. This is beyond depressing!

oh please kerry win, PLEASE!

Bush leads by 300 000 in Florida, so I think we can say it's his (94% of vote counted)
Bush leads by 150 000 in Ohio (59% of vote in). So it's not that tight in Ohio. We can give Ohio to GWB.
I wish I had your optimism. I give Florida to GWB, but Ohio is still tight. 130,000 votes right now. I thing the president will pull it out, but it will be close.

Well the BBC map has called Florida for Bush (using AP projections I think), giving 238 - 188 (they give CA to Kerry despite no results).

I've been watching Ohio all night (since it's my home state, after all) and it's been pretty consistent at 52-53% Bush.

Well the BBC map has called Florida for Bush (using AP projections I think), giving 238 - 188 (they give CA to Kerry despite no results).
CA is a given, like NY. No foul there. Certain states are going to be what they always are. It must suck to be from HI or AL, eh?

I'll call it at midnight EST (what's with the server clock?) - Bush carries Ohio & Florida by about 5% each. That all she wrote folks.

Goodnight, I am going to bed hoping I am wrong about what the next four years will be like for us all.

CA is a given, like NY. No foul there. Certain states are going to be what they always are. It must suck to be from HI or AL, eh?AL was close unless your talking about AK, which is in play according to the polls. As for CA, well it's a pretty sure thing, but they've not called many others which were locks, just CA. I imagine that's so it doesn't look like a Bush landslide.

AL was close unless your talking about AK, which is in play according to the polls. As for CA, well it's a pretty sure thing, but they've not called many others which were locks, just CA. I imagine that's so it doesn't look like a Bush landslide.
The rest are irrelevant. With Ohio and Florida in Bush's pocket he has won.

According to CSPAN, Bush is up by 4 so far in Ohio, but according to CNN (on TV) a lot of the urban votes in Ohio (which are expected to be largely Democrat) have not even been counted yet. As far as those other north-central states in that area, Kerry has a 1-2% lead in all of them. Kerry also has a small lead in Nevada and Oregon, and Bush has a small lead in Washington. Hawaii will probably be really close, but I expect it to go to Kerry and Alaska to go to Bush. New Mexico and Colorado both will likely go to Bush. New Mexico has Bush up by 3, and Colorado has him up by 9.

The rest are irrelevant. With Ohio and Florida in Bush's pocket he has won.
Except Ohio isn't in his pocket yet.

I think I saw Bush: 246 Kerry: 199, man that was depressing

And now all this talk about Ohio going to Bush, I think I'm going to be sick

CNN is still trying to milk Florida as much as they can; their headline story says there's not enough info to declare a winner (CNN.com (www.cnn.com)).

Edit: Just after I post this, CNN calls Florida for Bush. Ironically, the blurb from the headline story still says there's not enough info from Florida!

What I can see is 197 to Bush, and 188 to Kerry. It's tight, and Florida is too close to call again.

I think I saw Bush: 246 Kerry: 199, man that was depressing

And now all this talk about Ohio going to Bush, I think I'm going to be sick
Goi to MSNBC, they've got Bush 207 to Kerry's 206. I don't know how they get those numbers, but they have them. It will make you feel better I'm sure.

C-span actually has the balls to call Florida. Bush!
237-188

In Ohio, Bush is now down to 51% and Kerry at 48%. CSPAN and BBC have both called Florida for Bush by 5 points. Aside from New Mexico (Bush up by 3) and Colorado (Bush up by 9) and Ohio (Bush up by 3), Kerry is up in all the states that have numbers in.

CNN is still trying to milk Florida as much as they can; their headline story says there's not enough info to declare a winner (CNN.com (www.cnn.com)).

Edit: Just after I post this, CNN calls Florida for Bush. Ironically, the blurb from the headline story still says there's not enough info from Florida!
I think no one has the balls to call Florida! Except perhaps C-Span but their server is down - to me at least!

Okay, now I have no idea which one is right. U.S. Elections have always baffled me.

Except Ohio isn't in his pocket yet.
Check the map & the stats. Sure there is a statistical possibility, but really? I don't see it.

Okay, now I have no idea which one is right. U.S. Elections have always baffled me.
What is confusing you? At this point it is all just mathemetics.

Check the map & the stats. Sure there is a statistical possibility, but really? I don't see it.
Two hours ago, Bush was up by 5 in Ohio. Now he's up by 3, and they're still counting URBAN (typically more democrat) votes.

Two hours ago, Bush was up by 5 in Ohio. Now he's up by 3, and they're still counting URBAN (typically more democrat) votes.
I am staying awake in that hope. If Kerry loses Ohio I get no sleep tonight anyway. Who was I kidding?

CSPAN and BBC just called Oregon for Kerry. It's 237-195

C-span gives Oregon to Kerry.
237-195

What is confusing you? At this point it is all just mathemetics.

Yeah but it seems every result is differing from station to station - I don't know which one's are right or whatever

Yeah but it seems every result is differing from station to station - I don't know which one's are right or whatever
Seems like the one the Electoral College will eventually come up with is probably the most accurate.

Yeah but it seems every result is differing from station to station - I don't know which one's are right or whatever
Ok, everybody gives Bush Florida. That is a big "undecided" win at 27 EV. Kerry is at <3% and perhaps closing in Ohio. That may not be decided tonight since there are many absentee and write in ballots. The polls have been overwhelmed by the voter turnout.

Kerry just picked up the 4th and final Maine EV, putting him at 196. Kerry is only behind by 130,300 votes in Ohio.

Colorado called for Bush.

246-196, Bush's favor.

Fox News has called Ohio for Bush, but...

Numbers starting to come in for Hawaii and Alaska.

Bush has large lead in Alaska with 28% precincts reported, and Hawaii has huge Kerry lead, but less than 1% precincts reported.

Fox News has called Ohio for Bush, but...
266-211...c'mon, New Mexico, Alaska or Nevada.

CSPAN calls Minnesota for Kerry.

246-205, Bush's favor.

Kerry lost a small bit of ground (less than 10,000 votes) in Ohio, but 17 precincts still unreported.

C-span gives Colorado to Bush, Minnesota to Kerry. I say Washington to Kerry.
246-216

Yep, I was just coming to update on Washington.

It sucks, living in Ohio, but not having the power to vote...

51%-49% in Ohio in favor of Bush. Silly Conservatives think Ohio is in the bag, despite the fact that since about 70% of precincts reported, Kerry's been steadily gaining.

Alaska has gone for Bush. With Ohio, that would make 269. I am not sure about Ohio.
249-216

CSPAN still hasn't called Alaska since not even half the precincts have reported yet, but with Bush having about twice as many votes as Kerry, I think it's a safe bet.

EDIT: CSPAN just called Alaska for Bush.

Iowa is currently a 180 vote difference.

Iowa is 50/50 even though Kerry has a few more votes.

CSPAN still hasn't called Alaska since not even half the precincts have reported yet, but with Bush having about twice as many votes as Kerry, I think it's a safe bet.
Yeah, I think your right.

Wow. Kerry has a 185 vote lead in Iowa...

OHIO 13% uncounted 2.1 % difference . . . .

projections from cbc canada...

249 bush - 207 kerry

bush has pulled ahead a bit for a 125,000 vote lead in ohio :(

249 - 217
-ctv.ca

bush has pulled ahead a bit for a 125,000 vote lead in ohio :(
119k by my calculator.

projections from cbc canada...

249 bush - 207 kerry

Looking at Cspan, it's 216 Kerry. To make some "easy" predictions, Kerry gets NH, Hawaii, and MI for another 25, and Bush takes NM for another 5 making it 254-232. Ohio is leaning Bush (making him the winner), but even if Kerry gets Ohio, the other states left are all 50/50.

I just hope that doesn't happen. I don't want to deal with an election quite that close /again/.

They just gave NH to Kerry on Cspan (about time)

249-220

119k by my calculator.
well my calculator is just my head, and that has been knowen to be wrong occasionally.
but according to cnn its 129,000 with 89% counted

Bush has Ohio IMO

I may be forgetting, but isn't it Maine and New Hampshire that split their electoral votes based on popular vote percentage? That lowers the /actual/ number of Kerry votes by about 4 and raises Bush by the same for 254-216.

And then there's the guy from WV that said he wouldn't vote for Bush anyway (and WV went republican), so take one more away from Bush. 253-216.

Colorado voted against the split vote, so they won't be giving any to Kerry.

New Hampshire goes to Kerry. Ohio still questionable, probable Bush.
249-220

I may be forgetting, but isn't it Maine and New Hampshire that split their electoral votes based on popular vote percentage? That lowers the /actual/ number of Kerry votes by about 4 and raises Bush by the same for 254-216.

And then there's the guy from WV that said he wouldn't vote for Bush anyway (and WV went republican), so take one more away from Bush. 253-216.

Colorado voted against the split vote, so they won't be giving any to Kerry.
Based on some funky math, they awarded all of Maine's and New Hamshires' votes to Kerry. I didn't know anything about the guy in WV. Source. I'm interested.

I may be forgetting, but isn't it Maine and New Hampshire that split their electoral votes based on popular vote percentage? That lowers the /actual/ number of Kerry votes by about 4 and raises Bush by the same for 254-216.

And then there's the guy from WV that said he wouldn't vote for Bush anyway (and WV went republican), so take one more away from Bush. 253-216.

Colorado voted against the split vote, so they won't be giving any to Kerry.

This election is getting very messy.
Its times like this that im happy not to be american :p

bush 269
kerry 211

The President has a 25,000 vote lead in New Mexico.

THe Kerry campaign have emailed the press to anounce they have won Ohio. WTF?? :confused:

Looks like Kerry now has to win /every other state/ to tie.

Looks like Kerry now has to win /every other state/ to tie.
And then the Senate and House will give it to The republican ticket.

THe Kerry campaign have emailed the press to anounce they have won Ohio. WTF?? :confused:

Not what I heard. They said they wouldn't back down on Ohio until every vote was counted ... and they were sure after every vote was counted they will have won.

Right now Ohio is 100,000 in favor of Bush, 92% reported in, and probably 100,000 outstanding votes, maybe 200,000 total votes left to count. Kerry would have to win 150,001 of those to win Ohio.

Not likely.

And then the Senate and House will give it to The republican ticket.

Except everyone is neglecting the Maine and New Hampshire split electoral vote (voting by popular vote) ... which actually result already in a Bush win.

I don't think that NH splits their vote, although maine does.

I don't think that NH splits their vote, although maine does.

Then this may be important ... I know Maine does ... but what's the second state?

I only remember there are two because Colorado was slated to be the third until we voted it down.

They just gave NH to Kerry on Cspan (about time)

249-220
NH is a very split state. Tons of Navy contract work up by Kittery. Ay-yup. Other than that they count with their socks off.

Then this may be important ... I know Maine does ... but what's the second state?

I only remember there are two because Colorado was slated to be the third until we voted it down.

Damn. Nebraska is the second state. The vote there was 67-32 to Bush. That means the 2 that Maine will give to Bush will be countered by the 2 that Nebraska gives to Kerry. No change.

The third splitting state is Kansas, who sent all of theirs to Bush. On another note, it's 50-49%, Bush in Iowa and 49-49% (with less than a thousand-vote margin for Kerry) in Nevada-- both states in which Kerry leading earlier. And in the great state of Ohio Bush leads by two with 93% reporting.

Edit: 54% reporting in NV; 94% in IA.

Damn. Nebraska is the second state. The vote there was 67-32 to Bush. That means the 2 that Maine will give to Bush will be countered by the 2 that Nebraska gives to Kerry. No change.

I would imagine that all of Nebraska is going to Bush considering he has quite the lead there.

NH and Maine both can split their vote, however, they won't this time.

NNBC and Fox have both givin Ohio to Bush. Waiting.

NH and Maine both can split their vote, however, they won't this time.

It's Nebraska and Maine. Neither of which will split this time.

You're right, it is Nebraska, not Kansas. I knew that, it's just 2 a.m.

And who can tell the difference between 'em anyway?

bush 269
kerry 221

I would imagine that all of Nebraska is going to Bush considering he has quite the lead there.That's Ok, all four of Maine's are probably going to Kerry (1 still in minor play, I'll call it for Kerry).
The split system used in Maine (and I'm pretty sure Neb) is not the Colorodo one where Electoral votes are allocated based upon percentage of the popular total in the state, but according to the popular vote in each of the electoral districts (each senator and rep). People explaining it tend not to make it clear how the vote splitting is done.

There is no need to talk in really big font

And Bush takes a lead in Nevada 50-49% with a 5133 vote margin and 56% reporting.

You're right, it is Nebraska, not Kansas. I knew that, it's just 2 a.m.

And who can tell the difference between 'em anyway?
SLAP! SLAP! Here, have some coffee.

http://www.fsci.umn.edu/Ted_Labuza/Coffee/Cup%20of%20Coffee.jpg

CBS sez . . .

249-238

CBS sez . . .

249-238
its all lies

truth
Electoral Votes
270 of 538 needed to win
Bush
269
Kerry
221

I'm still trying to figure out the relucatance to call Ohio for Bush, I mean Pennsylvania was called early for Kerry and the votes totals are just about the same in both states, but PA for Kerry was the first state I saw called.

Michigan goes to Kerry. Ohio still questionable, probable Bush.
249-238

Senator (not anymore, really) Edwards just came out and said they will fight. That they can wait "one more night" for their victory. Does anyone really think in one more night when they have lost that they are going to concede? They are going to sue everyone.

Mmm, thanks. Pass the sugar (this big bowl, please).

Update from Iowa, according to CNN, the final count will be delayed due to broken machines and "a delay in opening absentee ballots," whatever that means. Currently Bush has overtaken Kerry in Iowa by 10,000 votes to lead 50-49%.

I think we can safely declare New Mexico for Bush. With a 5-point lead and 97% reporting (according to Yahoo), I doubt Kerry will come away with it. Also during my quick look down CNN's list of counties (CNN lists 93% as reporting with the same 5% lead), it appeared that most of the counties with unreported precincts were for Bush or split very narrowly. +5 votes for Bush.

In Ohio Bush is still in the lead 51-49% with a 120,000 vote margin. Although 97% of the precincts are reporting, CNN still lists it as "too close to call." I suspect they want to milk this for as much suspense as they can. They had a lot of fun with Florida in '00. Nonetheless, I say we can call Ohio. +20 votes for Bush.

In Nevada Bush increaces his lead by 2% to 50-48% with a 10,000 vote margin. Apparently the pro-Bush precincts were slower in reporting their totals as Kerry was leading earlier. Still at 65% reporting, Kerry could still pull this state.

In Wisconson, Kerry maintains his 1-point, 10,000 vote advantage with 87% reporting.

And I think those are all the close states. I hope the info isn't out of date quite yet.

f course this has nothing to do with the real cliff hanger, Thune versus Daschle. last check has Thune ahead by 5,000 votes.

Going down the county lists, those with unreported precincts are:

Ashland with only 40%, 64% of the vote thus far went for Bush; Clermont with 74% reporting, 71% for Bush; Coshocton, 51% reporting, 56% for Bush; Hamilton, 78% reporting, 53% for Bush; Knox, 98% reporting, 66% for Bush; and finally, Lucas County with 95% reporting, 60% for Kerry.

Seeing as only one of the remaining counties has gone for Kerry (who only has 5% not reporting) and the rest have gone to Bush by good, if not great, margins, I don't think there's any question left about who gets Ohio.

Mmm, thanks. Pass the sugar (this big bowl, please).

.......

And I think those are all the close states. I hope the info isn't out of date quite yet.

Too bad we're now going to be exactly where we were 4 years ago. Ohio will be contested. Voter fraud in other states will be claimed.

It's too late. This election will not be over tonight. Edwards has declared they will fight.

CNN has finally declared Michigan for Kerry where he leads by 3% with 80% reporting. I wonder why they haven't called NM for Bush yet where he leads by 5% with 96% reporting (CNN figure, Yahoo says 99%). Oh well, I don't suppose anyone cares that much about New Mexico.

My personal predicitons, Edwards isn't going to make many friends in Ohio if he forces us to go through the same thing Florida went through in 2000. And that was decided by 538 votes, not 137,606 (with 98% reporting).

BUSH 249
KERRY 242


BUSH 269
KERRY 242


BUSH 249
KERRY 225
which is the right one? noone knows?

Senator (not anymore, really) Edwards just came out and said they will fight. That they can wait "one more night" for their victory. Does anyone really think in one more night when they have lost that they are going to concede? They are going to sue everyone.
That was just the usual 'rally the troops' bit. They always do the VP candidate rally bit to keep them up.

The correct count is just a matter of who considers which states declared.

The only undecideds are Iowa (7) and Nevada (5), which are leaning Bush, and Wisconson (10), which is leaning Kerry. Iowa and Wisconson are within 1% with most of the votes counted. Nevada is within 2% but with about 80% reporting. Some have already declared Nevada for Bush, but I don't think it should be yet.

Ohio (20) isn't really undecided as I pointed out above, and New Mexico (5) is Bush's.

So by my count the score right now is 274-242 with 22 still untaken.

Ohio goes to Bush, if we manage to keep the democratic shenanigans to a minimum. THey will try to steal this ting.
269-238

Nevada has gone to Bush
274-238

New Mexico is going to go to Bush.
279-238

Iowa will go to Bush.
286-238

Kerry will win Michigan and Wisconsin, and Hawaii
286-252
Regardless of the democrat lawsuits, recounts, ballot shenanigans, just like 2000......



Ladies and Gentelman, your winner, and Still President of the United States of America, George W. Bush

Ohio goes to Bush, if we manage to keep the democratic shenanigans to a minimum. THey will try to steal this ting.
269-238

Nevada has gone to Bush
274-238

New Mexico is going to go to Bush.
279-238

Iowa will go to Bush.
286-238

Kerry will win Michigan and Wisconsin, and Hawaii
286-252
Regardless of the democrat lawsuits, recounts, ballot shenanigans, just like 2000......



Ladies and Gentelman, your winner, and Still President of the United States of America, George W. Bush

We'll see, but not tonight. NV still has 17% to count. NM looks good for Bush. OH? That may take days.

If Bush gets Ohio and NM, he wins.

If Bush gets Ohio and NM, he wins.

And ... if Kerry loses /any/ state at this point, he loses (by my count Iowa, Wisc, Mich, Ohio are still out ... NM and NV are decided)

And ... if Kerry loses /any/ state at this point, he loses (by my count Iowa, Wisc, Mich, Ohio are still out ... NM and NV are decided)

Yeah.

You people need to rethink your math. The way I see it, Nader's got this one locked down.