NationStates Jolt Archive

OK, it is two hours until the 1st polls close, but I'll start this thread early where we can discuss the returns.

I will go ahead and beat FoxNews to it:

BUSH WINS NEW JERSEY
Final 15 votes decide as Bush is relected 276 to 262.

I will go ahead and beat FoxNews to it:

BUSH WINS NEW JERSEY
Final 15 votes decide as Bush is relected 276 to 262.
I've already got a polling thread going but ha.


I say...PA and NJ are solidly democratic this year.

For what it's worth, I'm calling New Hampshire for Bush right now. Nader's on the ballot, Badnarik's not, and NH hasn't gotten much attention from either party since 2000, when it went for Bush.

Additionally, I'm predicting that Amendment 36 in Colorado fails.

For what it's worth, I'm calling New Hampshire for Bush right now. Nader's on the ballot, Badnarik's not, and NH hasn't gotten much attention from either party since 2000, when it went for Bush.

Additionally, I'm predicting that Amendment 36 in Colorado fails.

AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41


NH- Kerry up by 16 in early exit polling. Bush ain't coming back from that, not without a heavy fight.

AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41


NH- Kerry up by 16 in early exit polling. Bush ain't coming back from that, not without a heavy fight.
Exiting is flawed as you lack absentees and they tend to lean Republican. You are also basing it before the late afternoon rush.

Exiting is flawed as you lack absentees and they tend to lean Republican. You are also basing it before the late afternoon rush.
Bush isn't going to fight back from 16 points down, even if absenteeism is leaning extremely Bush, which from the last polls about that I've seen seems to suggest that it is a tie or only marginally Bush.

Bush isn't going to fight back from 16 points down, even if absenteeism is leaning extremely Bush, which from the last polls about that I've seen seems to suggest that it is a tie or only marginally Bush.
where are the exit polls from? I want a link. Even if you provide one, exit polls are extremely innacurate, especially when they come before the afternoon rush.

Exiting is flawed as you lack absentees and they tend to lean Republican. You are also basing it before the late afternoon rush.
You make a point but assuming that these polls are even somewhat true, its unlikely that 16 points will be made up. Then again early exiting polls were 9 and 10 points off, both in favor of Gore, in 2000 in the states of Colorado and Arizona, respectively.

You make a point but assuming that these polls are even somewhat true, its unlikely that 16 points will be made up. Then again early exiting polls were 9 and 10 points off, both in favor of Gore, in 2000 in the states of Colorado and Arizona, respectively.
And this year almost 40% of voters in some states voted early.

AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41


NH- Kerry up by 16 in early exit polling. Bush ain't coming back from that, not without a heavy fight.

And this is exactly what caused Florida. Exit Poll Data

And this is exactly what caused Florida. Exit Poll Data
And there is little veracity to this data. It was supposedly a leak, but the media is reporting it as false data from an Internet rumor.

Exit Poll Charade: Why Slate is posting the exit-poll numbers: As this item posts, the first raw exit-poll data are streaming from the National Election Pool consortium owned by the Associated Press and the five television networks (CBS, ABC, NBC, Fox, and CNN) to their news divisions and to the newsrooms of NEP subscribers—big city newspapers and other broadcasters.

These early exit-poll numbers do not divine the name of the winner. Instead, regard these numbers as a sportswriter does the line scores from the fourth inning of a baseball game. The leading team might win the game, but then again it might not. But having the early data in front of him helps the sportswriter plot the story he thinks he'll need to write at game's end.

As you read this posting, the political reporters at the networks, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, NPR, Newsweek, and about two dozen other news outlets are cracking their knuckles over their keyboards, contemplating the story, while statisticians and political analysts at the networks prepare to run the numbers through their computer models to generate a prediction.

The paid users of exit-poll data have signed a blood oath not to divulge it to unauthorized eyes, and the networks have promised not to call any states before their polls close. But the numbers always leak out to other journalists—such as the writers at Slate—and starting at about 5 p.m. ET or so, the news anchors start giving clues about what they've learned from the exit-poll results. As John Tierney writes in today's New York Times, the result on television is sometimes like a "version of the Dance of the Seven Veils, in which anchors or correspondents will pretend not to know what's happening in a state but give enough clues for the discerning viewer. They might allude to the high spirits at one campaign headquarters, or start speculating about what effect the loss of this state would have on the other candidate."

In the 2003 gubernatorial election in California, the networks kept their solemn oath not to call the winner until polls closed at 11 p.m. ET. Just the same, CBS News' Dan Rather telegraphed his findings in this 6:30 p.m. ET broadcast.

With voting still under way in the California governor recall election, CBS News exit polls, for whatever, if anything, they may be worth, now indicate many voters made up their minds weeks ago. … If [Gov. Gray Davis] is recalled, there are widespread expectations—again, for whatever they may be worth—that Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger would replace Davis.

On CNBC, John Seigenthaler maintained a straight face in the 7 p.m. ET time slot as he divulged these exit-poll results: "Nearly three-quarters of California voters, 73 percent, say they disapprove of [Gov. Gray Davis'] job performance." Need he have drawn a picture? Meanwhile, MSNBC and Fox indulged in similar mugging. Watch the airwaves for such giveaways this evening.

Slate believes its readers should know as much about the unfolding election as the anchors and other journalists, so given the proviso that the early numbers are no more conclusive than the midpoint score of a baseball game, we're publishing the exit-poll numbers as we receive them. Some people say it's irresponsible to publish the numbers—or broadcast early projections of winners—because it may disturb voter turnout. As Slate Editor Jacob Weisberg put it in today's Times, he doesn't want to put the Web site "in the paternalistic position of deciding that our readers aren't mature enough to react in the proper way to truthful information we possess."

*sigh*...

Bush: 34
Kerry: 3

All those electoral votes for Bush so far are from firmly Bush states. Interesting that Virginia and South Carolina, also considered Bush country, are too close to call at this point. It suggests heavy movement towards Kerry in the fist-time voter category.

Bush: 34
Kerry: 3

You mean Kerry actually won a state? (Vermont)

You mean Kerry actually won a state? (Vermont)

Yea Kerry took VT!

Bush just took WV w/ NC and OH to close to call

NC, VA to close to call (MSNBC)

The numbers so far:

Race for President
Candidate Votes Vote% Electoral votes
Bush 636602 57% 34
Kerry 475536 42% 3
Nader 4770 0% 0
270 votes needed to win

From USAtoday

NC, VA to close to call (MSNBC)

You forgot SC too

Woo, now starts the nervous wait. I'm gonna try to not go to watch it until around 7ish central, so polls are closed and results will start coming in fairly soon.

I'd like to take this opportunity to say, HEIL BUSH.

:upyours: To the Kerry supporters :p

I'm suprised WV was called so fast.

I'm suprised WV was called so fast.

I'm not!

Exiting is flawed as you lack absentees and they tend to lean Republican. You are also basing it before the late afternoon rush.
Source for that? I voted absentee... for Kerry.

Source for that? I voted absentee... for Kerry.

I voted absentee.... For Bush

Absentee and Kerry! :D

All those electoral votes for Bush so far are from firmly Bush states. Interesting that Virginia and South Carolina, also considered Bush country, are too close to call at this point. It suggests heavy movement towards Kerry in the fist-time voter category.

VA is at 60% Bush right now....

I voted absentee.... For Bush
I'm not claiming to represent the overall trend, I'm saying that it isn't so clear that I'll accept statements about it without evidence.

Time moves faster when you're watching election night coverage.

MSNBC inadvertantly calls OH for John Kerry.

In Illinois there's a guy running for senate named Jerry Kohn.



HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

MSNBC inadvertantly calls OH for John Kerry.

And Fox News hasn't! CNN hasn't either I hope!

And Fox News hasn't! CNN hasn't either I hope!
They didn't mean to, just their exit poll numbers showed bush below 49% for all voters (minus 60++_

Jesery projected John Kerry

NJ and IL MA DE CT DC MD Maine go to Kerry

TN OK AL for Bush

Kerry 77
Bush 66

ANother state or states called!

Unknown but it is now:

Kerry 77
Bush 74

Edit:

South Carolina Called for GWB making it what you see here

VA and NC called for George W. Bush making it 89 to 77 Bush

It is now 102 to 77 Bush!

What state or states was called I don't know yet!

This will be my last update unless something happens between now and 5 minutes!

Hey, I gotta go in for a good ol' peanut gallery. Warm fuzzies.

I just got home from voting and have been incomunicado until just now. What I find most remarkable is the vast difference in everyones numbers. Flipping the channels gets different numbers, combing the internet gets me different numbers. Crazy talk. I don't know if I can hold my breath this long....

Um, I'm calling New York and California for Kerry, and I'm calling Texas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Idaho, and Alaska for Bush. :p

Bush is looking good right now on CNN.com in terms of Florida and Ohio

I may actually be too tired to keep up with all of this. I might just crash out and then have all my emotions at once tommorrow instead of force myself down this rollercoaster.

I may actually be too tired to keep up with all of this. I might just crash out and then have all my emotions at once tommorrow instead of force myself down this rollercoaster.
I like how Ohio and Florida are looking. With those two states Bush will claim a victory tonight

ABC has called Florida for Bush and it looks like Ohio is also going Bush!

ABC has called Florida for Bush and it looks like Ohio is also going Bush!
I'll call it at midnight EST - Bush carries Ohio & Florida by about 5% each. That all she wrote folks.

Goodnight, I am going to bed hoping I am wrong about what the next four years will be like for us all.

OK, I'll wait for Ohio. *sigh* the NYT just called Florida.

I'll call it at midnight EST - Bush carries Ohio & Florida by about 5% each. That all she wrote folks.

Goodnight, I am going to bed hoping I am wrong about what the next four years will be like for us all.

Real Clear Politics has it 246 to 188 Bush

Real Clear Politics has it 246 to 188 Bush
Let's see if Ohio can close tonight. If Bush takes Ohio then that is that.

The NYT is very careful with it's results and they have it currently at 224/134.

Let's see if Ohio can close tonight. If Bush takes Ohio then that is that.

The NYT is very careful with it's results and they have it currently at 224/134.

And Fox News has it 246 to 211

And OHIO HAS FALLEN TO BUSH!!!!!!

That makes it 266 to 211 for Bush

And Fox News has it 246 to 211

And OHIO HAS FALLEN TO BUSH!!!!!!

That makes it 266 to 211 for Bush
Fox has no credibility.

It's still 12% uncounted and 2.5 % apart.

Fox has no credibility.

It's still 12% uncounted and 2.5 % apart.

Bullshit dude! MSNBC has also called it my friend so this race is basically over!

Bullshit dude! MSNBC has also called it my friend so this race is basically over!
You'r saying bullshit to what? Fox's credibility? AHEM!

It doesn't matter what anyone forecasts. At this moment it is very close and as yet undecided. What part of that don't you get?

It may well be that Ohio is won by Bush. But your say so, Fox's say so, MSNBS's say so all have no bearing on the outcome.

CBS - 249 Bush 221 Kerry

NH to Kerry

CBS - 249 Bush 221 Kerry

NH to Kerry

NBC 269 to 211 Bush with Ohio to Bush

NBC 269 to 211 Bush with Ohio to Bush
LOL!

Let's try this, NV, NM, & WI are an even split at 10-10, although WI is very close also. If Bush pulls WI then he'll definitely have 269. Ohio isn't sealed yet. Whoever wins Ohio wins it all.

You want to believe so then you have faith. I have no faith so I'll wait & see. This could well wind up in Congress.

LOL!

Let's try this, NV, NM, & WI are an even split at 10-10, although WI is very close also. If Bush pulls WI then he'll definitely have 269. Ohio isn't sealed yet. Whoever wins Ohio wins it all.

You want to believe so then you have faith. I have no faith so I'll wait & see. This could well wind up in Congress.

Bush has a sizeable lead in NM! WI i'm giving to Kerry and NV to Bush too!