NationStates Jolt Archive

Just to kick off the night with some good news for Democrats in the (leaked) exit polls:


AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41


They were inaccurate in the 2002/2000 election, keep that in mind, but PA by 20?

Just to kick off the night with some good news for Democrats in the (leaked) exit polls:


AZ CO LA PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41


They were inaccurate in the 2002/2000 election, keep that in mind, but PA by 20?
Wait until the people with jobs get off of work and go vote. That number will swing to Bush!

Wait until the people with jobs get off of work and go vote. That number will swing to Bush!
...except that early morning voting favors Bush.


Say nothing of the fact that most democrats, you know, work.

...except that early morning voting favors Bush.


Say nothing of the fact that most democrats, you know, work.

As do most republicans so what is your point?

As do most republicans so what is your point?
Just talking about the nice little implication that 'natural choice' made.

Just talking about the nice little implication that 'natural choice' made.

That's fine but the way it sounded to me is that republicans dont work. That is how I took it personally.

That's fine but the way it sounded to me is that republicans dont work. That is how I took it personally.
"Wait until the people with jobs get off of work and go vote. That number will swing to Bush!"


...

Wait until the people with jobs get off of work and go vote. That number will swing to Bush!


Goddamnit. Shut up. That's the second stupid thing you've said in two political threads. :rolleyes:

Let's just keep to the facts here. That being said, Pennsylvania by 20%? Hot damn! What's the source?

I bet MD is up by even more

Let's just keep to the facts here. That being said, Pennsylvania by 20%? Hot damn!

Gymoor, don't believe those numbers. I don't believe those numbers! I think Kerry will win PA but I think he'll win it by 3 points

...except that early morning voting favors Bush.


Say nothing of the fact that most democrats, you know, work.Sure man, keep thinking that, if that is what helps you sleep at night.

Let's just keep to the facts here. That being said, Pennsylvania by 20%? Hot damn! What's the source?
Command post...It's being slow atm. http://www.command-post.org/2004/2_archives/016763.html

Gymoor, don't believe those numbers. I don't believe those numbers! I think Kerry will win PA but I think he'll win it by 3 points

I don't believe the numbers, but I think 20%, by the law of averages, is too much of a differential to overcome. I also accept that anything can happen.

I don't believe the numbers, but I think 20%, by the law of averages, is too much of a differential to overcome. I also accept that anything can happen.

and if it was leaked by a democrat, I call those numbers bullshit! If it came from a republican going the other way with the same differential, I would still yell bullshit.

Don't believe the exit numbers.

and if it was leaked by a democrat, I call those numbers bullshit! If it came from a republican going the other way with the same differential, I would still yell bullshit.

Don't believe the exit numbers.

I do not automatically toss aside data just because of the source. I look at it, and see how other sources support or refute it. Then I use my judgement to see which, in the end, makes more sense to me.

In other words, even though I support the conclusion, I take the information with a grain of salt and now I'm off to see it anything else out there agrees or disagrees with this data.

I do not automatically toss aside data just because of the source. I look at it, and see how other sources support or refute it. Then I use my judgement to see which, in the end, makes more sense to me.

In other words, even though I support the conclusion, I take the information with a grain of salt and now I'm off to see it anything else out there agrees or disagrees with this data.
More polls:

NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI
Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51
Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46


Looks like everything is playing out within the MoE so far.

name source

name source
Slate.
http://slate.msn.com/id/2109053/

name source
It dosen't matter, no election resuts/polls released this early are likely to be that accurate, anyway. (Note how Pennsylvania's difference is five times that of North Carolina).

It dosen't matter, no election resuts/polls released this early are likely to be that accurate, anyway. (Note how Pennsylvania's difference is five times that of North Carolina).
Agreed. Just posting them as they come through the night :)

Actually I shouldn't say that they won't be accurate since looking at the numbers, most of the polls are within a few points, however, the source isn't really that big of an issue IMO, since you won't get any of the really "trusted" polling firms like Gallup or Zogby to release them this early.

You Republicans have awoken a sleeping giant called the Democrats. Through the last few elections, less than 1/3 of all registered Democrats voted while a little over 1/3 of Republicans voted. This has changed. Near 1/2 of registered Democrats are voting/have voted today, whil the Republican figures have stayed roughly the same. I bid President Bush adieu.

I bet MD is up by even more

I live in MD, and it is most certain that the vote goes to Kerry. Maryland has always been a democrat state. We probably have Kerry up by 40%

I live in MD, and it is most certain that the vote goes to Kerry. Maryland has always been a democrat state. We probably have Kerry up by 40%
I live in Maryland too. Its Kerry. There is almost no chance that it can go otherwise.

despite three different attempts to get on including a reboot of my computer, your link isn't working. It would appear that the site you direct to exists, but there isn't any data upon it.

The release of exit poll data is very much an illegal action to do so before the closing of polls.

I live in MD, and it is most certain that the vote goes to Kerry. Maryland has always been a democrat state. We probably have Kerry up by 40%

Yep. That's why I said that. I live in maryland too.

80% of registered voters in Maryland are voting/have voted already.

Kerry will not win MD by more than 40 points! I know he'll win it but it won't be by a massive landslide

Stop arguing about this. The only polls that matter are the final ones.

Stop arguing about this. The only polls that matter are the final ones.
Agreed, but these exit polls are giving us democrats a glimmer of hope.

Agreed, but these exit polls are giving us democrats a glimmer of hope.

And it caused massive amounts of Trouble last year in Regard to Florida 2000!

And it caused massive amounts of Trouble last year in Regard to Florida 2000!
The exit polls didn't screw us over, the final polls did.

I finally got the site up, and I was unable to find a source for the numbers. Just saying that the numbers were "leaked" isn't enough to actually account for anything. And if they were leaked, then that is a serious violation of the US election law.

I finally got the site up, and I was unable to find a source for the numbers. Just saying that the numbers were "leaked" isn't enough to actually account for anything. And if they were leaked, then that is a serious violation of the US election law.
...No. Read the slate article, they are done independently, just the numbers aren't supposed to be released until later...for various reasons.

The exit polls didn't screw us over, the final polls did.

WRONG!!!

They called Florida based on Exit poll data while the Pandhandle was STILL VOTING!!!

WRONG!!!

They called Florida based on Exit poll data while the Pandhandle was STILL VOTING!!!
Argh! I have to go now, I would argue this but I have to go vote if I want to get in before the election hall closes. See ya'll later!

Argh! I have to go now, I would argue this but I have to go vote if I want to get in before the election hall closes. See ya'll later!

Hurry back Yevon!

And it caused massive amounts of Trouble last year in Regard to Florida 2000!the poll did not screw the dems...the Judges did.

I wonder how accurate this site is...
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

One last batch of exit polls:


Kerry Bush

PA 53 46
FL 51 49
NC 48 52
OH 51 49
MO 46 54
AK 47 53
MI 51 47
NM 50 49
LA 43 56
CO 48 51
AZ 45 55
MN 54 44
WI 52 47
IA 49 49

I think that most of those exit polls cant be depended on. However, with a 20% difference it basically means Pennslyvania is in Kerry's hands, not particularly suprising.

with OH and FL, its a difference of 2%, not only could it be slanted, but it still is within the margin of error.

Polls can be somewhat wrong, but not compleatly.

I wonder how accurate this site is...
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Not very!

the poll did not screw the dems...the Judges did.

No the Florida Supreme Court was caught trying to rewrite laws in the middle of the game. That is in violation of the law and SCOTUS called them on it.

Do you want me to drag out Bush v Gore opinion?

So far, 34-3 for Bush. But he got a number of hardcore republican states and Kerry got Vermont, so it's nothing surprising yet.

No the Florida Supreme Court was caught trying to rewrite laws in the middle of the game. That is in violation of the law and SCOTUS called them on it.

Do you want me to drag out Bush v Gore opinion?sure...be my guest :D

Indeed. Bring on the Supreme Court opinion.

New Jersey for Kerry, the state that lost the most people on 9/11.

Is there a site out there that lists this stuff in real time?

New Jersey for Kerry, the state that lost the most people on 9/11.
And Strategic Vision kept saying NJ was a tie. :p


Is there a site out there that lists this stuff in real time?
cnn.com and foxnews.com are doing that, but they are VERY cautious this time. They're only calling the obvious ones.

And it caused massive amounts of Trouble last year in Regard to Florida 2000!
I think the experience of the 2000 election woke a hell of a lot of people up with regard to exit polls, early pronostications by media 'pundits' and in making sure your vote gets in and counted. In my district - which is very civilized - there were a few incidents of people getting antsy. Mind you this is in Manhattan which is strongly Democratic.

I finally got the site up, and I was unable to find a source for the numbers. Just saying that the numbers were "leaked" isn't enough to actually account for anything. And if they were leaked, then that is a serious violation of the US election law.
That is the heart of a leak. Otherwise it is called a release.

Thats it, I'm going to Cuba as a political refugee. I measured my choices and decided that i'll take Castro over Bush. See ya'll in 2008!

lol, just kidding. The thought did cross my mind though. I'm still contemplating Canada and Italy(my home country)