NationStates Jolt Archive

My best guess. I've done a shitload of research, gone over every poll, evaluated it all, and here is my honest non-partisan prediction.

THE STATES:

Solid Bush: Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Indiana.

I'm calling for Bush: Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, and Missouri. 227 electoral votes so far.

Solid Kerry: Hawaii, California, Oregon, Washington, Maine, Vermont, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., and Illinois.

I'm calling for Kerry: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. 272 electoral votes so far.

New Mexico, Iowa, and Florida are too close to call (not that it's stopping me).

I am also guessing Kerry will just barely take Iowa and Florida, giving him 306 votes.

EDIT: I now think Kerry will also take New Mexico. 311 votes.

Nader will probably take 1.1%, Badnarik .7%, and the others .2%.

I disagree on the Ohio, recently the rallies in Columbus resulted in a minor Bush bump (including in the general atmosphere). Also, the Kerry rally seemed to have a whole hell of a lot of people who were solely there to see the Springsteen. And Central Ohio is where it's at this election. After the Bush rally there seemed to be an attitude around that was highly favorable to Bush.

Also, the most recent Rasmussen Poll gave Bush a 50-46-1 lead.

My call is that Florida gets tied up in litigation for a long time.

Bush will pull ohio by a comfortable margin, and Florida by a slightly, when all the people in the panhandle who were told their votes didn't matter in 2000 by the networks vote this time. Plus Palm Beach county people evidently havn't learned how to vote yet.

I think Kerry will win by 1%. Of course the Bushie people will complain about this because 1% isn't enough. :rolleyes:

I think Kerry will win by 1%. Of course the Bushie people will complain about this because 1% isn't enough. :rolleyes:
You mean like that last four years of whining from the gories because Gore lost, but not by enough?

Personally, that goes against the last five estimates by both CNN and Fox so...I'm going to stay skeptical

Personally, that goes against the last five estimates by both CNN and Fox so...I'm going to stay skeptical
*sarcasm* What, You watch FOX! OMG, FOX Lies! Fox wathcers are Stupid! *end sarcasm*

Your gonna get killed for that, man. Good luck! :)

Should I and Newsweek, and the Economist to the list?

I don't rely on one new source since all news sources are biased...I understand Fox is biased, so is CNN...so is Newsweek...and the Economist...

Relying on one news source is a bad idea...

Personally, that goes against the last five estimates by both CNN and Fox so...I'm going to stay skeptical
I believe the nature of polling this year is highly inaccurate. Polls don't do so good when the number of new voters and voter interest are high. Plus the polls in 2000 predicted a moderate Bush lead in the popular vote, which he lost by .5%.

And most importantly, those are national polls you are citing. I don't consider them to be that important. State polls are all that matter.

I hate living in a Bush state. Idaho schmidaho

I hate living in a Bush state. Idaho schmidaho
M
O
V
E
!

Just an update, I still think New Mexico is damn close. A new ARG poll puts Kerry 1% ahead. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Kerry takes this state.

My best guess. I've done a shitload of research, gone over every poll, evaluated it all, and here is my honest non-partisan prediction.

I'm calling for Kerry: 272 electoral votes so far.


I am guessing Bush 232 votes.
.


Chodolo, altough you've done a shitloadof resarch, you can not beat: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

and they give a Bush win.

I give a Bush win to but because they (Reps) will have a mass fraud in Brower, Palm Beach and many other counties. I simply don't see a honnest election, altough (and that is the nice part) the US asked for international observers.

Nader will probably take 1.1%, Badnarik .7%, and the others .2%.
Considering how similar the two major parties are, it stuns me that so few people vote third party.

Chodolo, altough you've done a shitloadof resarch, you can not beat: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

and they give a Bush win.
On the main page yes, they're one of my main sources. I prefer the polling page though, www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html (http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html) .

Kerry and Bush have both fluctuated in various polls to leads in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico, etc.

I look for trends, voter history, poll bias, etc.

Another good site (just ignore the partisan commentary) is electionprojection.com

Right now they have Kerry up (giving him Florida but not Ohio).

Perhaps my favorite site of all is www.politicalwire.com (http://www.politicalwire.com), which has a non-partisan main page, as well as sections for both liberal and conservative blogs.

I still stand by my predictions, although I am considering calling New Mexico for Kerry, that might be presumptive. We'll see, as always.

Extra Extra Kerry Wins Presidential Election

I believe the nature of polling this year is highly inaccurate. Polls don't do so good when the number of new voters and voter interest are high. Plus the polls in 2000 predicted a moderate Bush lead in the popular vote, which he lost by .5%.

And most importantly, those are national polls you are citing. I don't consider them to be that important. State polls are all that matter.

The fact that you haven't spent enough time to know that all four of the sources I just mentioned break down the vote using the electoral college and state polls demonstrates a decided lack of actual research.

We are in the margin of error...(even the last vote was...)

I disagree on the Ohio, recently the rallies in Columbus resulted in a minor Bush bump (including in the general atmosphere). Also, the Kerry rally seemed to have a whole hell of a lot of people who were solely there to see the Springsteen. And Central Ohio is where it's at this election. After the Bush rally there seemed to be an attitude around that was highly favorable to Bush.

Also, the most recent Rasmussen Poll gave Bush a 50-46-1 lead.
Bush Kerry
Rasmussen 47.9 47.1 Saturday

I bet the whole thing will get thrown into chaos when David Ortiz carries Massachusetts with 78% of the vote.

I wonder if a poll got 89% Bush 10% kerry, that repubs would spout it as surefire reasoning bush would win?

Polls can be very misleading.

I hate living in a Bush state. Idaho schmidahoI hate living in a close state. I understand you folks don't have 40 minutes of political commercials out of every hour on the TV and can actually answer the phone without it being either a politician or a pollster. The annoying one now is the machines which are too good to talk to humans, they only wish to speak to my answering machine, I want to know what those machines are plotting.

I bet the whole thing will get thrown into chaos when David Ortiz carries Massachusetts with 78% of the vote.
No, Kerry will win with 17% of the vote.

Bush will get 9%

Ortiz will get 14%

Schilling and Martinez will get 15% apiece

Foulke and Ramirez will get 10% apiece

Cabrera will get 5%

Nixon will get 3%

And Mueller will get 2%

Oddly enough, no votes will be cast for any other candidate.

Chodolo, altough you've done a shitloadof resarch, you can not beat: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

and they give a Bush win.

I give a Bush win to but because they (Reps) will have a mass fraud in Brower, Palm Beach and many other counties. I simply don't see a honnest election, altough (and that is the nice part) the US asked for international observers.

I'm at electoral-vote.com and they have Kerry 283, Bush 246 (Nevada, 5 and New Hampshire, 4 are exactly tied). I'm not saying you were wrong, though. They update it so often, it has probably changed between now and your post. They gave Bush the win yesterday, but Kerry today. They update it so often and are so accurate. Everbody should go there.

And you are right about the mass fraud of the GOP in Brower, which is heavily Democratic. According to my Chicago Tribune this morning, tens of thousands of early-cast ballots have already gone missing in the Democratic county. And the Tribune Co. is endorsing Bush, so when they say something bad about him, you know it's right.

I hate living in a close state. I understand you folks don't have 40 minutes of political commercials out of every hour on the TV and can actually answer the phone without it being either a politician or a pollster. The annoying one now is the machines which are too good to talk to humans, they only wish to speak to my answering machine, I want to know what those machines are plotting.

Out of curiosity, what swing or "battleground" (as they call it now) state are you in?

The fact that you haven't spent enough time to know that all four of the sources I just mentioned break down the vote using the electoral college and state polls demonstrates a decided lack of actual research.

We are in the margin of error...(even the last vote was...)
Um, you just said CNN and Fox.

I take the mainstream news predictions with a grain of salt anyways.

In fact, I take every source (including electoral-vote.com, electionprojection.com, realclearpolitics.com, politicalwire.com, politics1.com, etc.) with a grain of salt.

The polls are all over the map, I'm just looking through them for patterns, momentum, historical precedent, etc, combined with current trends (higher Democrat registration of new voters, high voter interest in general, overpolling and underpolling, etc), and giving my best estimate.

It is of course all within the margin of error (even when the polls themselves aren't).

The tiniest movement either way could shift it from a 300+ Kerry win to a 300+ Bush win. Such is the nature of the electoral college. In fact, Kerry may even lose the popular vote, but still take the college.

In fact, Kerry may even lose the popular vote, but still take the college.
I hope that whichever candidate wins, wins decisively, but in that situation it would be funny to see Republicans grit their teeth and accept the result.

In fact, Kerry may even lose the popular vote, but still take the college.

You know, a part of me wants that to happen, so I can shove it back into the Republicans face.

You know, a part of me wants that to happen, so I can shove it back into the Republicans face.

I want to see that so there's a petition for tremendous changes made to our political system. (I really despise the idea of parties)

I think Kerry is going to win by more then any of the pundits and pollsters think he will. I say Kerry takes Ohio, PA (which he's expected to win any way) but I think he takes Florida too.. Bush can't win if Kerry takes all three!

I think Kerry is going to win by more then any of the pundits and pollsters think he will. I say Kerry takes Ohio, PA (which he's expected to win any way) but I think he takes Florida too.. Bush can't win if Kerry takes all three!
Bush can barely win if Kerry just takes two. And Kerry already has Pennsylvania in his pocket. Ohio and Florida are both tossups, but trending Kerry.

If Kerry were to lose Florida, Bush would still have to sweep and take Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, etc, (very unlikely.)

If Kerry takes either Ohio or Florida he wins.

Considering how similar the two major parties are, it stuns me that so few people vote third party.

I've been a supporter of Ralph Nader ever since I began reading about his policies years ago.

However, I believe that another 4 years of the Bush Administration would not be beneficial to this country, and that voting for Kerry would bring about change. Don't get me wrong, I support Nader more then Kerry, but voting for Nader this election would get nothing done.

Its techically possible for Bush to win even if he loses all 3 of the "big 3", although its doubtful that Michigan (which has recently gone from safe Democrat to very tight) would go for Bush if both Ohio and Pennsylvania didn't.

http://www.issues2000.org/George_W__Bush.htm

*bawls* It's horrible! This guy isn't a Republican, let alone a sentient creature.

http://www.issues2000.org/George_W__Bush.htm

*bawls* It's horrible! This guy isn't a Republican, let alone a sentient creature.

*still awed* He's not even human. Ug.

*goes off to halloween party*

I've been a supporter of Ralph Nader ever since I began reading about his policies years ago.

However, I believe that another 4 years of the Bush Administration would not be beneficial to this country, and that voting for Kerry would bring about change. Don't get me wrong, I support Nader more then Kerry, but voting for Nader this election would get nothing done.
Yeah, that's pretty much my sentiments. Considering I live in a safe Bush state, I almost considered voting Nader. However, that would just encourage the guy to run again. :mad:

No, Kerry will win with 17% of the vote.

Bush will get 9%

Ortiz will get 14%

Schilling and Martinez will get 15% apiece

Foulke and Ramirez will get 10% apiece

Cabrera will get 5%

Nixon will get 3%

And Mueller will get 2%

Oddly enough, no votes will be cast for any other candidate.

I believe you grossly underestimate what winning the World Series meant to Red Sox Nation.

A new Zogby poll in New Mexico has them tied, and a new ARG poll has Kerry ahead 1% in that state.

I'm changing my mind and calling this one for Kerry.

New prediction, Kerry 311, Bush 227.


Something else interesting, a majority of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, by far: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/direction_of_country.html

This is part of the reason I predict undecideds will go for the challenger by far.

A new Zogby poll in New Mexico has them tied, and a new ARG poll has Kerry ahead 1% in that state.

I'm changing my mind and calling this one for Kerry.

New prediction, Kerry 311, Bush 272.


Something else interesting, a majority of Americans believe the country is on the wrong track, by far: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/direction_of_country.html

This is part of the reason I predict undecideds will go for the challenger by far.

311-272? **whips out calculator** OK, that's 583 electoral votes. Which third-party candidate's going to get those other -45 electoral votes?

311-272? **whips out calculator** OK, that's 583 electoral votes. Which third-party candidate's going to get those other -45 electoral votes?
whoops! :p

Hopefully they do a better job counting than me in Ohio and Florida!

I think Kerry is going to win by more then any of the pundits and pollsters think he will. I say Kerry takes Ohio, PA (which he's expected to win any way) but I think he takes Florida too.. Bush can't win if Kerry takes all three!

Kerry won't win Ohio. I'm sorry I know a lot of you are relying on that. But I live here. I eat here. I usually take my dumps here (unless I'm on a road to Ann Arbor). I'm almost 100% sure Ohio's going Bush. I'm judging this from my interactions with people, from local telelvision, from my lifelong appreciation and sense of Ohio people (Ohio people and I are like "this"). The local broadcasters are being fair and even (as opposed to their national counterparts), and the Bush supporters I've met are very solid--definitely turning out for election day. The Kerry supporters I've met might either too stoned, too lazy, or too unenthused by the Senator's rock-like charisma to go vote. The Bush base in Ohio is strong. I haven't seen the same strength from Kerry's camp. If Bush supporters from the sticks outside those industry heavy northern metroplises turn out reliably, it won't matter how many Younstowners are angry over losing jobs.

Bush will win Ohio.

Most likely, the Shrub will stay in power for another four years. I'm not saying he's going to win the election, just stay in power. Here's part of the reason why...

Don't know if anyone out there has Dish Satellite for their cable provider, but there is an amazing channel on 9415 called Free Speech TV out of Boulder, Colorado. The so-called "liberal media" aint got nothing on these guys. Anyway, caught a fascinating and totally unsettling show called "Invisible Ballots: Electronic Vote". It discussed the rise of computerized voting and the threat to American Democracy. Mind you, America is an Oligarchy and not a Democracy (in my opinion), but I stray off topic. The program covered a number of the problems and potential fraud that can arise from computerized voting. And the owner of Diebold, one of the big three providers of computerized voting machines, stated he will do whatever is in his power to help get Bush re-elected (paraphrasing). If you get the chance and have the access, check this program out. I don't know how many more times it will be shown in the days to come, but it's a real eye-opener -- as have been many of the shows I've watched on FSTV.

Living in the potential battleground state of Colorado, I must vote Kerry this time around. I'll be voting Green or other third party for any other office there's a candidate for except for the Presidency and one other race (Pete Coors is running for Senate, and both he and his beer SUCK!). I honestly feel that Democrats and Republicans are pretty much two sides of the same coin, especially between Kerry and Bush. I'm voting more against Carl Rove (this guys pure evil), Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, and Patriot Act Ashcroft. Bush is just a dumbass; these guys are the real power and the real problem.

Vote third party! It's the only real choice!

Long Live Matalatataka!
Mahatma Matt

post-post: If history holds true to course then Kerry will win since the Redskins lost to the Packers today. Thanks to the Countdown with Keith Olbermann for this bit of electorial trivia. :D

Kerry won't win Ohio. I'm sorry I know a lot of you are relying on that. But I live here. I eat here. I usually take my dumps here (unless I'm on a road to Ann Arbor). I'm almost 100% sure Ohio's going Bush. I'm judging this from my interactions with people, from local telelvision, from my lifelong appreciation and sense of Ohio people (Ohio people and I are like "this"). The local broadcasters are being fair and even (as opposed to their national counterparts), and the Bush supporters I've met are very solid--definitely turning out for election day. The Kerry supporters I've met might either too stoned, too lazy, or too unenthused by the Senator's rock-like charisma to go vote. The Bush base in Ohio is strong. I haven't seen the same strength from Kerry's camp. If Bush supporters from the sticks outside those industry heavy northern metroplises turn out reliably, it won't matter how many Younstowners are angry over losing jobs.

Bush will win Ohio.
Bush won Ohio by 3.6% in 2000. I've gone over tons of polls and the like, but a first-hand report is appreciated. I still think the Democrat machine is stronger than you've seen there. Nearly a million new voters have been registered, most of them Democrats. It will all come down to turnout.

i hope god saves us all and does not allow kerry to become president

i hope god saves us all and does not allow kerry to become president
God hasn't interfered in our day-to-day affairs for 2000 years now. I seriously doubt he'd get involved over a little election.

I don't know about that, he sure seemed to bitchslap Florida this summer for messing up the election in 2000. (j/k)

www.electoral-vote.com (http://www.electoral-vote.com)

Zogby's latest polls show Kerry getting large leads in the Midwest cluster of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Gallup has Kerry pulling ahead in Ohio, while Zogby has Bush pulling ahead there.

Gallup and Zogby both have Kerry leading in Pennsylvania still.

Both pollsters also have Kerry leading in Florida.

Zogby has suddenly switched from a huge Bush lead in New Mexico to a tie. ARG has Kerry up 1%.

New Hampshire still looks easy Kerry.

This election looks like it's going to be an electoral rout by Kerry (but the popular vote will probably be very close).

You can look at RCP's page of the battlegrounds: http://realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html

I basically give all the tossups they list to Kerry.

www.electionprojection.com (http://www.electionprojection.com) gives Iowa, Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico to Bush.

Here's a nice sum up of pundits predicting the election: http://realclearpolitics.com/commentary.html, scroll down to October 31. 10 of the pundits they list predict a Bush win, 9 predict a Kerry win.

Out of curiosity, what swing or "battleground" (as they call it now) state are you in?
I'm not in a battleground state, I'm in New Hampshire which is a close state, but has so few electoral votes that it isn't considered a battleground. I think NH will squeek for Bush unless cheating goes on - because the immigration from Mass has pretty much stopped.

I'm not in a battleground state, I'm in New Hampshire which is a close state, but has so few electoral votes that it isn't considered a battleground. I think NH will squeek for Bush unless cheating goes on - because the immigration from Mass has pretty much stopped.
New Hampshire is expected to go for Kerry by 2-5%. This one kinda snuck up on Bush and bit him in the ass. I wondered why hardly any media attention was paid to NH, considering the fuss around Iowa and New Mexico, which only have 3 and 1 more vote respectively than NH. I don't even remember if either of the candidates went by there. In any case, Bush may have written it off early on in the campaign, because although he won it in 2000 by a couple percent, he is now running against a New England Democrat and that changes things.

By the way Chodolo, where are you getting some of your poll numbers? Specifically, Gallup's for Pennsylvania. Looking at RCP right now, it seems as though the Gallup poll has put Bush up by 4% there.

By the way Chodolo, where are you getting some of your poll numbers? Specifically, Gallup's for Pennsylvania. Looking at RCP right now, it seems as though the Gallup poll has put Bush up by 4% there.
Ah. I checked the listing on electoral-vote.com, Gallup is listed as Kerry 49, Bush 47 in PA. http://www.electoral-vote4.com/pastpolls.html#Pennsylvania

I checked Gallup's official website: http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/default.aspx?ci=13876 , you're right, they have Kerry 46, Bush 50.

Probably a Likely Voter adjustment vs. Registered Voters.

(And strangely, they have Kerry at 50 in both Florida and Ohio, and Bush at 47 and 46 respectively. Go figure. And they have Bush leading by 8% in Wisconsin, which is plainly rediculous.)

But still, based on the majority of Pennsylvania polls, I feel safe calling it for Kerry.

For Americas Sake lets hope to god that you are right.

New Hampshire is expected to go for Kerry by 2-5%. This one kinda snuck up on Bush and bit him in the ass. I wondered why hardly any media attention was paid to NH, considering the fuss around Iowa and New Mexico, which only have 3 and 1 more vote respectively than NH. I don't even remember if either of the candidates went by there. In any case, Bush may have written it off early on in the campaign, because although he won it in 2000 by a couple percent, he is now running against a New England Democrat and that changes things.It was pretty mcuh writtten off, but more becasue of the demographic trend than the NE democrat thing. Over half the population of NH came here from Mass, and the state has been leaning more and more democratic as they have overrun the state. It has come into play recently however. The big thing is actually going to be the president riding on the coattails of the governors race (yah I know it's usually the other way arround), where if the incumbent can discourage the oppositions supporters, especially in the north, it should take votes away from Kerry - I fully expect this is happening.

I dont think it will go to Kerry with that margin. There are going to be some upsets and that estimate doesnt have any real close states leaning towards Bush. I think Bush will win New Mexico and possibly Iowa. I am relying on a secret hunch.

I dont think the polls are very reliable we can only wait until election night.

I saw three polls for Ohio. One said Bush had a 4 point lead, one said Kerry had a two point lead, another (the Los Angelos Times) said Kerry had a 6 point lead with a 4.5 error of margin giving him a solid lead so you just cant tell.

This is when a strong 3rd party suddenly pop's up one day with a Spam advertising campaign, spewing out 600 Billion Dollars on one day and sweep the election.

You know if there was a large, strong, and highly funded third party they would easily jack this election.

But here's a question.
Why not simply have your voter's from your Uber Strong states move (Some of them) to another state that is in question.

Then you'd have a
Slightly Weaker (But still easily going to you state)
And a State that was hesitating but is now for you.
:p 'Voters are a natural resource'

I dont think it will go to Kerry with that margin. There are going to be some upsets and that estimate doesnt have any real close states leaning towards Bush. I think Bush will win New Mexico and possibly Iowa. I am relying on a secret hunch.

Gore won New Mexico by a very slim lead in the 2000 election, and there have been many thousands of Mexican immigrants since than and Hispanics highly favor Kerry so I think he'll win NM, but I do think Bush has Iowa, unfortunately.

I love the day before elections, so much debate on the forums and all, and yet, I hate it, so much worry, its utter chaos, I guess thats why I like it!

Gore won New Mexico by a solid lead in the 2000 election, and there have been many thousands of Mexican immigrants since than and Hispanics highly favor Kerry so I think he'll win NM, but I do think Bush has Iowa, unfortunately.

I love the day before elections, so much debate on the forums and all, and yet, I hate it, so much worry, its utter chaos, I guess thats why I like it!
No he didn't, look up stuff before you post it if you're not sure. Gore won by under 400 votes.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/president/index4.html

Gore won New Mexico by a solid lead in the 2000 election, and there have been many thousands of Mexican immigrants since than and Hispanics highly favor Kerry so I think he'll win NM, but I do think Bush has Iowa, unfortunately.
Gore won New Mexico by 366 votes out of 573,200 votes cast. That's 0.06%. Wow.


And a note about Hispanics, they do tend to favor Democrats, but they are open to exploitation of their devout Catholicism by the Republicans. Also of note, Cuban Americans are heavily Republican. This has been a strong point for Florida Republicans.

And I'm not giving up on either New Mexico or Iowa, the polls yesterday jumped in Kerry's favor. Hell, Kerry went from 9% down to a tie in one day according to Zogby. Then again, Kerry was up 10% just a week earlier according to Zogby. Go figure.

No he didn't, look up stuff before you post it if you're not sure. Gore won by under 400 votes.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/president/index4.html

I know sorry about that, I just rushed back to this forum to edit my horrible mistake. I will fix it now, sorry.

Gore won New Mexico by 366 votes out of 573,200 votes cast. That's 0.06%. Wow.


And a note about Hispanics, they do tend to favor Democrats, but they are open to exploitation of their devout Catholicism by the Republicans. Also of note, Cuban Americans are heavily Republican. This has been a strong point for Florida Republicans.

And I'm not giving up on either New Mexico or Iowa, the polls yesterday jumped in Kerry's favor. Hell, Kerry went from 9% down to a tie in one day according to Zogby. Then again, Kerry was up 10% just a week earlier according to Zogby. Go figure.

I heard that Cubans are voting more and more towards Democrats, especially this time, it showed a greater margin of Cubans voting for Kerry in Florida and other Heavy Cuban states, good news. And usually Mexicans dont vote on religion, and most people who vote for Bush for religion are Evangelicals. They are very annoying, although heavy Christians vote for him.

My call is that Florida gets tied up in litigation for a long time.

I think that is a safe bet. I see Ohio and Pennsylvania also getting some legal attention as well.

In Ohio there have already been news articles about challengers to voters coming in, and I read that the courts (I can't recall if they were Federal or State) issued a ruling that poll workers should be responsible for this and that non-poll workers should stick to observing the elections.

The problem with all of these legal battles is they are taking the focus off the real issues associated with US elections ... and that is the question of as to whether or not they are equal county to county. I fault the Electoral College, for putting such a great focus on "Battleground" states, and not also focusing on places like Oregon and its Vote By Mail ballots. While I think that is a good idea, I think it too is worthy of *international* attention.

An Ohio appeals court just struck down two lower court rulings that prohibited GOP workers from (depending on your point of view) monitoring the polling places for voter fraud, or harassing voters in heavily Democratic areas.

Either way you look at it, a small victory for the Ohio Republican network.

This election is coming down to two tossup states, Ohio and Florida. Bush basically needs both to win (barring some upsets elsewhere).

Or not...the Ohio court scene is going crazy, suits and countersuits.

I wonder how much money is going to have been spent in total on this entire election.

It's just like Aliens vs Predator --- Either way....we lose

Sad to say, but Bush will take Ohio (by a small percentage.) As a Kentuckian, I received daily television coverage of our neighboring states (Indiana and Ohio.) Of the three states, only Ohio was in play (KY and IN are solidly Republican, unfortunately.)

The Rove machine has poured millions into Ohio, and was looking to shore up a Bush victory with a win in this state. Forget Florida; Ohio is the real battleground this election.

And as goes Ohio, so goes the election.

I think Kerry is going to win by more then any of the pundits and pollsters think he will. I say Kerry takes Ohio, PA (which he's expected to win any way) but I think he takes Florida too..
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Or not...the Ohio court scene is going crazy, suits and countersuits.

I wonder how much money is going to have been spent in total on this entire election.

I think its at 1 billion before the lawyers

I think Kerry is going to win by more then any of the pundits and pollsters think he will. I say Kerry takes Ohio, PA (which he's expected to win any way) but I think he takes Florida too..
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Yes, many people who don't live in America (Steph is a Canuck) had the unmitigated pretentiousness to think they could tell us who to vote for. That this particular prediction was SO far off the mark (and their apoplectic frenzy over the election results) only serves to illustrate that they know virtually nothing about Americans and what makes us tick.

I must say I am very impressed with this thread and would like to humbly urge the mods to Archive it immediately.