NationStates Jolt Archive

Jesus, all of the polls has this election at razor thin, and yet, I feel that it shouldn't be that way. Bush is by far the worst president in the 20th century. This administration flip then flop, and then flip again that its not funny! The latest flip flop? The missing 58,000 ton of explosive. First it was it was gone before we got there, then its Russia fault, then the soilders probably blew it up, and the list goes on and on! I mean comon, these people should be able to open their freakin eyes open??? This biggest one still is the Bin Laden flop. Hell this President even sat on his ass for seven minutes after the first WTC was struck, and read My Pet Goat. He even lied about watching it on TV! How can we tell he lied, because the footage for the first WTC being struck wasn't released till AFTER the attacks were finished. I know all about protecting the little children, well guess what, SCREW the little children, when your country is under attack you need to ACT NOW! I swear if it wasn't for 9/11 Bush wouldn't be in office right now. We would have President Collin Powell (after a few more impeachements.....). Even the REASON for going to Iraq keep changing. I don't even know what the lastest reason is, does anyone? And what a way to piss off an entire region, and create a recruiting video for none other than Bin Laden. Not that they were loving America before we invaded... This President has done more damage to America than Al Queida did on 9/11. Hell why do we even need Bin Laden? Bush seem to be doing his job just fine. We even have the "lastest thing you should be scare of" every week! Also lets not forget that Bush has never apologized for ANYTHING, I mean God, its one thing to screw up about every, other day. But to NEVER apologize or admit that you screw up???? Even Bill Clinton apologized to us after he tried to cover up the Monica Lewinsky Scandal. Even KERRY apologized for his senate voting in one of the debate? What does that say about YOU when everyone else is apologzing EXCEPT YOU? Now, presented with what Bush has done over the past 4 years, why is the race so close? Why isn't Kerry leaving Bush in the dust like he should be? Is America getting dumber, are the polls skewed, or maybe the Republicans has the majority of the population brainwashed? Maybe America was asleep during these past 4 years? I mean jeez, even Bin Laden isn't scare of Bush! I mean what does that say about you when your enemy isn't scare of you? So in my final statement, why is the race so close?

Because Bush is the worst Preisdent of the 21ST century. And the ONLY one at that....American-wise...

Because Bush is the worst Preisdent of the 21ST century. And the ONLY one at that....American-wise...

That wasn't really the point of this rant....

That wasn't really the point of this rant....
no but just pointing out a huge miscalculation. The 20th century had it's own host of bad times, and now we have our own in this generation.

perhaps it's so close because people are idiots?

that plus for some reason, smear campaigns work better than anything.

well, in the states at least. here that kinda fucked up what's his face.

no but just pointing out a huge miscalculation. The 20th century had it's own host of bad times, and now we have our own in this generation.

You quit reading it after "20th century" didn't you? lol.

maybe alot of Americans still believe in G W Bush. Maybe alot of Americans think Bush is doing a great job.

Maybe this will be another squeeker like 2000.

for the record, my grandparents are voting for bush because he's a good christian.

for the record, my grandparents are voting for bush because he's a good christian.

You know, I've been to a mental hospital before, just to let you know. ALOT of people in there claim that God talks to them.

perhaps it's so close because people are idiots?

that plus for some reason, smear campaigns work better than anything.

well, in the states at least. here that kinda fucked up what's his face.
LOL....it sure did backfire in Canada!! :eek:

LOL....it sure did backfire in Canada!! :eek:
yeah, claiming that the other guy supports kiddie porn is probably a bad thing to do when you have no basis for it.

I don't think it's as close as the pollsters have it. One thing to remember--a this point in the 2000 election, most of the polls had Bush up by anywhere from 4 to 6 points two days before the election, and Gore wound up winning the popular vote. Zogby called it a dead heat then, and he's basically said that pollsters are pissing in the wind right now because they're missing so much of the population.

This race is not as close as the polls seem to indicate. The odd thing about American politics is that it is so superficial; the polls are designed to influence the upcoming election---not predict its outcome. This is why agencies such as Zogby adjust their internals from poll to poll; it is outcome oriented.

The punchline is that Zogby will claim---post-election---that they predicted the outcome; one that they helped bring about. The prophecy is self-fulfilling where American politics is concerned.

The best indicator of the likely result of any American election---especially at the state level---is the status of the economy. Look at employment rates, interest rates and the level of consumer consumption (particularly in the home purchase sector.) If levels of consumption and employment are high (i.e., home purchase rates increasing each quarter and above the prevailing interest rate,) the incumbent politicians are typically re-elected. If consumer confidence is down (i.e., national unemployment approaching high-single or even double digits, and new home purchases becoming stagnate or falling below the prevailing interest rate,) then voters will elect new representatives.

Don't let the hype about this being a "different" type of election due to 9/11 fool you; American political decision are always influenced by "fear mongering," (remember "the Red Scare" and "Willie Horton?") and always come down to a simple analysis of the economy.

Here's the prediction:

Republicans hold the House, but Democrats gain 5-10 seats.
Republicans hold the Senate by a single seat (they will lose Kentucky and Colorado, despite Bush victories in both states.)
Bush wins re-election (unfortunately) after pulling off a narrow victory in Ohio and despite losing Florida.

Anyone care to wager a few NS bucks on this outcome?

I don't think it's as close as the pollsters have it. One thing to remember--a this point in the 2000 election, most of the polls had Bush up by anywhere from 4 to 6 points two days before the election, and Gore wound up winning the popular vote. Zogby called it a dead heat then, and he's basically said that pollsters are pissing in the wind right now because they're missing so much of the population.
Yeah, it was 46 to 41%, Bush to Gore. And in Ohio, the polls had Bush by 52 to 41%, so Gore made a fatal mistake and stopped campaigning there. In the end, Bush took Ohio by a tad over 3%.
Some poll accuracy, huh?

As to why it's close, and why this seems so illogical - in the paper yesterday (South China Morning Post, in case you're interested), it had a front page article about some research in the States. They were looking at party-supporters brain activity patterns when looking at pictures of Bush and Kerry.
What they found was that when GOP voters looked at Bush, the emotive part of the brain lit up. When they looked at Kerry, the logical area lit up. The reverse was true (though not as clear-cut) with Dem voters.
What this means, is that ppl are voting according to their feelings towards a candidate, and are only using logic to justify NOT voting for the opponent. They're not using their logic reasoning skills in deciding who to vote for - only who to vote against.
In other words, why does it seem so illogical? Because it is!
You only have to read the responses you get on this forum from Bush supporters to criticism of Bush to see the validity of this research. There was a thread the other day about the missing explosives, and some of the responses were surreal - most used the missing tonnes (377, not 58 000 BTW) as 'proof' of WMDs (ignoring the logical explanation of what a WMD is). There was even one post that claimed that a machine gun was a WMD!
This is what happens when you are forced to logically justify your emotive decisions - your responses do not make sense, and you end up frustrated and angry at the person forcing you into analysing your emotions - which also explains the inevitable descent into name-calling and flaming that starts up around page 4 of any US political thread (in fact I've noticed it creeping further up - lately it can be seen on the first page).

The reason it's close? Simple, Bush has had really a dreadful Presidency. But two factors combined to keep him alive, The shitty job the Kerry campaign has done, and the whoop ass job the GOP has done. Really, that's all there is to it, Kerry has some great points, he's just not the right candidate (not that any of the dems in the primary were the right candidate, but kerry definitely isn't) Now he may win, but who knows, it's a toss up.

The reason it's close? Simple, Bush has had really a dreadful Presidency. But two factors combined to keep him alive, The shitty job the Kerry campaign has done, and the whoop ass job the GOP has done. Really, that's all there is to it, Kerry has some great points, he's just not the right candidate (not that any of the dems in the primary were the right candidate, but kerry definitely isn't) Now he may win, but who knows, it's a toss up.
The only reason it looks like Kerry's done a shite job is because he has been mainly trying to appeal to the voter's logical side - and if you read my post above, you'll see that this isn't going to work to woo GOP voters over.
Clinton was fantastic cause he was able to appeal to both our emotive side and logical side depending on the situation.

Nah, Clinton won both time because he could smooze the media. He catered to them, so they catered to him. Glossing over any negitive news during the campain, always trying to cast him in a positive light. Bush did no such thing which is why they always tried to show Bush as being dumber that he really is. If Kerry smoozed the media like Clinton, then he would have this election in the bag. After all, All the news media are biased and all the news agencies will cater to those who are 'nice' to them.

reason its close?

Simple both candidates are dreadful. Neither one is appealing, our choice is lying moron or disembling scumbag.

If the democrats had put a decent candidate up, he'd be like 10 points ahead now, but back when the process was starting Bush looked like a lock, so we just got the slops.