NationStates Jolt Archive

i was just watchting the daily show. mr zogby of the zogby poll was on and he predicted that kerry will win

his rationale was that the undecided votes break for the challenger rather than the incumbent so kerry is going to be the winner

too bad its only the actual VOTE that counts

Yeah, I just saw that, which is excellent, given Zogby was the ONLY pollster to get it right in 2000. :)

i feel so pathetic grasping at poll straws but i need a bit of HOPE.

there ARE many thousands of unpolled voters out there. im just hoping they are all kerry voters

Yeah, I just saw that, which is excellent, given Zogby was the ONLY pollster to get it right in 2000. :)

Not true, actually. ;)

Still, Zogby's opinion is at odds with his own polling.. :cool:

Edit: Here's the 2000 numbers.

http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm

Not true, actually. ;)

Still, Zogby's opinion is at odds with his own polling.. :cool:

Edit: Here's the 2000 numbers.

http://www.ncpp.org/poll_perform.htm

Sure, but his opinion is based on undecided voters who, by definition, are not included in the numbers. It's the same as my rationale for predicting that, while the electoral vote may be close, the overall popular vote won't be, and neither will the popular votes in any of the swing states. I expect the undecided vote to go very strongly one way or the other, but unlike Mr. Zogby, I can't claim to know which way they'll go.

Not true, actually. ;)

Some of us actually do believe Gore won and with very good reason. So, to my mind Zogby got it right!

(Don't bother arguing with me, I'm going to bed..lol)

There have been a few studies on the matter, actually. Also, polling methodology is open to systematic forms of bias - pollsters tend to work by telephone during the day, which notoriously under-reports certain populations. "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN!" anybody?

his rationale was that the undecided votes break for the challenger rather than the incumbent so kerry is going to be the winner

The opposite happened in the Australian election this year.... :(

Some of us actually do believe Gore won and with very good reason. So, to my mind Zogby got it right!

(Don't bother arguing with me, I'm going to bed..lol)

I wasn't arguing that Zogby didn't get it right, just that he wasn't the Only one who did, and that others were closer. ;)

the undecideds will be like the rest of the pop and break even. where the even breaking will occur, who knows.

the undecideds will be like the rest of the pop and break even. where the even breaking will occur, who knows.

Most of the undecideds are single women. There is quite a precedent that they will most likely go to Kerry.

The young and the formerly apathetic will decide this election.

there are bunches of newly regisitered voters who dont get polled for various reasons. if they bother to VOTE, im hoping they will lean toward kerry.

Stupid east coasters getting thier Daily Show before me and then telling me about it because I can't think far enough in advance to think "Hey, they're probably talking about tonights show and I should just wait...."




My weather is better....pphhhhhhbbbbllllllttttttt!!!!

Hey, where do you live? I live in San Jose.

Hey, where do you live? I live in San Jose.
Santa Cruz. I could throw rocks at you if I could throw rocks really far...

not that I want to throw rocks at you, that just occoured to me.....


I'm pretty tired..............and yet, I'm not going to sleep anytime soon...

Santa Cruz. I could throw rocks at you if I could throw rocks really far...

not that I want to throw rocks at you, that just occoured to me.....


I'm pretty tired..............and yet, I'm not going to sleep anytime soon...

Likewise. I'm tired because my softball team suffered a humiliating defeat. I'll have everyone know that I did not hit into any outs. 2-2 with a walk.

/hijack

I hate looking at the national numbers. The states are all that matter.