NationStates Jolt Archive

Do you think Kerry or Bush will win? This is who you think will win, not who you want to win. Be honest.

It'd be sheer obstinacy to claim you think you know who will win this election. It's way too close.

What? No Nader?

He is going to win!!! He has 1% of the votes, and we all know that is unbeatable.

:cool: :sniper: :mp5: :gundge:

At the moment, Kerry has the momentum. Bush is on the defensive, and is refusing to answer questions. Something else can always happen though, but at this time, I think Kerry will win.

Just a point to make. A lot of fervent Bush supporters paint Kerry as a weak, ineffectual, waffling, uber-liberal with communist leanings. Doesn't it bother you that (in your view) such a "fringe" candidate is neck and neck with your "mainstream" (ha!) candidate?

If your perception of Kerry is right, how abysmal must the job your candidate is doing be?

Bush... but only by 30-45 EV... :headbang:

I swear, sometimes it's like he likes the competition... I say get it done with...go for the throat.

He did well with the "missing" explosives thing though.. that was CBS's big Nov. 1 surprise, which they blew.

I think its going to be Kerry. That explosive story should take Bush down a few notch. Hell with all of the miskate he has made I'm suprised hes still in office.

If the candidates appear to be tied, I suspect Kerry will come out slightly ahead. Conventional wisdom held Bush to be far ahead in 2000, and as we all know it was pretty damn close. Also, no one is denying voter interest and participation are much higher this year than 2000. High turnouts always benefit the liberals, and first time voters are missed by the pollsters.

For all these reasons I think the polls are favoring Bush more than they should.

Kerry should just barely squeak by.

I think Kerry will win. I have two reasons that I believe can be counted, but most may think doesn't effect the outcome.

1. Kerry is considerably taller than Bush. Booyah! (The taller candidate has always won since the wide acception of the television with three acceptions. Two times, the taller was bald. The other time, technically the supreme court decided.) I believe there is some psychological value to this, though.....

2. The Packers will defeat the Washington Redskins this sunday! They did awesome last sunday, and also the sunday before that! There is no stoping Ahman Green now! Or Bret, for that matter. His last game, I believe he threw no interception. And ahman ran for a 90 yard touchdown! Anyways... for the last 15 elections the Redskins have accurately predicted the outcome of the election. If the redskins lose their last home game before the election day, the incumbant party, (Bush) will lose.

Of course, I also believe that Kerry would make a better president.

Bush.

Because we all know that no matter how obvious it is that he's bad for social, domestic, and econimic issues (I've added this field of the "President's" "job" [most breaks ever taken by a President] since I've now amassed enough research to hold my ground), people still seem to overlook those facts and go on "gut" instinct.

Also they have the pathetic inability to critique a President, which is something I have no trouble doing, Democrat or Republican (Bush is definitely not a Republican).

He's a lousy President, probably the worse there ever was, and since Kerry could easily rack up a deficit (and deplete an enormous surplus), spend tons of money (that he claimed he'd never spend), appeal to stringent and fanatic ideals of nazis and fringe Christians, give tax cuts to the rich, abuse the environment (worse than any President before) and educational standards, lose numerous jobs, involve himself in money scandals with energy and oil corporations, and start a war that even his father was against (which has only irked terrorists even more), I don't see why we shouldn't give old Frankenstein a shot.
It's not like our deficit is going away any time soon, even though Clinton (whose sex life is the greatest problem I've ever heard raised about him) seemed to have it on the way being cut in half by 2010.

So yes, I think Bush will win. Because America is filled with stupid, uneducated fanatical Christian nutjobs, as well as numerous impoverished and stupid farmers who don't know what's good for them, and haven't taken a baisc economics course that can tell them that almost any other course of action is better than the one we're currently taking.

way too close to call :headbang: . kerrys trying to get rid of debt but decrease military. bush is trying to increase military but is increasing debt in the process. both are nessecary. i think we should have co-presidents. :rolleyes:

i think we should have co-presidents. :rolleyes:

They are called Vice President.

I think he meant one from each party, like they had in the old days.

problem was, it was getting too difficult to get anything done.

I think he meant one from each party, like they had in the old days.

Yes and even then they were called Vice President.

Yes, I know.

It is really too close, and one shouldn't call it at this point.

That said, I think Kerry has a better chance. High voter turnouts benefit the left, and undecided voters generally break against the incumbent. Additionally, Zogby, who has been rather accurate in the past, has called a slight Kerry victory.

Plus, as the pressure comes up, Bush's consistant gaffes will hurt him more, even if they really don't have any bearing on anything other than his ability to sound intelligent when he speaks.

problem was, it was getting too difficult to get anything done.

That's one of the greatest things about democracy.

I mean, if the country is LITERALLY divided on which way they want to go, and the directions are as vastly different as they are in this election, then what we need is a stalemate till logic comes and people do the right and "progressive" thing (or "right" and retrogressive thing, in which case I run off to Switzerland or something).

Maybe the only solution to the Bush/Kerry conundrum is to split the U.S. again on North/South grounds...the country's that divided.

I give 2:1 odds that Kerry will win a very tight election, basically on "the incumbent rule."

If you're not familiar with it, it says in an incumbent election that undecided voters have basically already rejected the incumbent, but just aren't ready to commit to the challenger yet. Because of this, when they actually hit the polls, the challenger gets 60-80% of the "undecided" vote.

This is a demonstrable pattern, and I think fits here. So, for a rule of thumb, any state that Bush final polls at 50% or more, he'll probably win. Anything he polls 47%, Kerry will win. 48-49% will be a photo finish based on a lot of factors, including whether Nader's on the ballot.

Maybe the only solution to the Bush/Kerry conundrum is to split the U.S. again on North/South grounds...the country's that divided.

What do we do with the battleground states? Do they vote every 4 years on which union to join?

Maybe the only solution to the Bush/Kerry conundrum is to split the U.S. again on North/South grounds...the country's that divided.

Hell no. What happens with the liberals in states like Texas and conservatives in states like California?

We'd be screwed over royally just because the majority of our peers in the state voted the opposite of us.

What do we do with the battleground states? Do they vote every 4 years on which union to join?

We'll just give them their own country...maybe then they'll be able to decide.

Hell no. What happens with the liberals in states like Texas and conservatives in states like California?

We'd be screwed over royally just because the majority of our peers in the state voted the opposite of us.

I was just kidding...but to answer your question, every country has its minorities...the new states would be no different.

I was just kidding...but to answer your question, every country has its minorities...the new states would be no different.

Yes, the liberals in New Christian Texas can expect to have their rights and property slowly stripped away from them, while the conservative in New Greenland will probably enjoy being right about "them illegal Mexicans" taking away all their jobs while the liberal hierarchy stands idly by in mild amusement.

Yes, the liberals in New Christian Texas can expect to have their rights and property slowly stripped away from them, while the conservative in New Greenland will probably enjoy being right about "them illegal Mexicans" taking away all their jobs while the liberal hierarchy stands idly by in mild amusement.

In my defence, I said they'd have minorities. I didn't say how they'd deal with them.

Regardless, my original post on the subject was a joke...don't read too much into it.

Nader will I still say :)

http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/nader.php

I voted Bush. It seems Kerry has lost his momentum and Bush seems to be gaining more.

... and stupid farmers who don't know what's good for them, and haven't taken a baisc economics course that can tell them that almost any other course of action is better than the one we're currently taking.

Or more likely they know what is good for them because Republicans are known to help out farmers. Democrats focus mainly on "the stupid" urban poor.

I voted Bush. It seems Kerry has lost his momentum and Bush seems to be gaining more.

What world do you live in? The polls have been tightening. All the recent battleground polls are heading in Kerry's favor (except Gallup, but they are not accurate,) and the news has been all bad for Bush.

What wolrd do you live in?

In an unbiased one (I am a libertarian). I study several sources of news. If every evil thing about Bush is true and everyone believed them, then Kerry should be dominating the race. Instead, it is close race. I give the incumbant the advantage in a close race.

In an unbiased one (I am a libertarian). I study several sources of news. If every evil thing about Bush is true and everyone believed them, then Kerry should be dominating the race. Instead, it is close race. I give the incumbant the advantage in a close race.
Actually, undecideds tend to break for the challenger. So a close race with lots of undecideds (which some polls still show) is probably a challenger victory.

Thanks for your input everyone, and for not turning this in to a mudslinging or flame thread. You guys rock.

Bush is going to win, methinks. There's no way they will let Kerry take Florida, no matter how much of the population there supports him (and right now it's about evenly divided).