NationStates Jolt Archive

Here is their last projection the night before the election of 2000.

In all it's glory: http://web.archive.org/web/20001110051000/www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-EC_ALWAYS.html

Final RCP Electoral College Analysis: Bush 446 Gore 92
Bush 51.2% Gore 41.9% Nader 5.8%

Just read through it, it's hilarious.

And, as always, there is a point. Can you guess my point? :D

As well, browse the final polls done before the 2000 election here: http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/polls-2000.html

Out of 15 pollsters, only 2 guessed a Gore popular vote win. Zogby and CBS, both basically ignored by Republicans.

The result of the 2000 election after the dust settled was Bush 271, Gore 267. Popular vote: Gore 48.4%, Bush 47.9%, Nader 2.7%.

I bet my friend $10 Kerry would win. I'm feeling lucky.

f00! Now you've jinxed it! If Bush wins, I'm blaming you.

f00! Now you've jinxed it! If Bush wins, I'm blaming you.
No don't do that. Blame Nader. It's much easier. :D

(on that note, it's interesting how Nader took only half what they were guessing. Nader's been polling in the 1-2% range this year. It's gonna be a Dem/Repub blowout of the third parties.)

No don't do that. Blame Nader. It's much easier. :D

(on that note, it's interesting how Nader took only half what they were guessing. Nader's been polling in the 1-2% range this year. It's gonna be a Dem/Repub blowout of the third parties.)

The easiest ting to do is blame Canada.

So the obvious conclusion is that if realclearpolitics predicted a huge Bush win in 2000, and it was close as hell, and now they are predicting a slight Bush lead, perhaps Kerry is going to sweep on Election day? Or maybe RCP has refined their methods, I dont know. But many people have called RCP Republican-biased, and I now have some pretty strong proof.

There's a lack of supporting polls, at least as I can find, for the site's conclusions. It would be interesting to see what polls the site used to back is claims that Illinois and California would be going to Bush, and if the site has changed its methods.t