NationStates Jolt Archive

OK, it's time we had a little fun game over this year's election. The rules are as follows:

1. Predict the winner of each of the 51 states. If you guess correctly, you win the elecoral votes for that state.
Exceptions to that are as follows:
--In Maine and Nebraska, electoral votes are divided by congressional district. In these states, you are allowed to split votes between candidates. So if you believe Kerry will win 3 EVs in Maine and Bush will win 1, you can split your vote that way. If Kerry wins all 4 EVs for that state when you split your vote, you win 3 EVs. If Kerry wins 3 EVs and Bush wins 1, you get all 4 EVs.
--In Colorado, you may split your vote based on proportion of the vote. If that motion passes, and you split your ballot correctly, you win all the EVs for that state. EVs will be taken off accordingly.
--If there is an elector that abstains anywhere in the U.S., no one receives an EV for that elector UNLESS they predict an abstention. You win the EV for predicting an abstention; you win 10 bonus EVs for predicting the correct state.
--Remember that DC counts as a state for our purposes.

2. Predict the winner of the popular vote in this fashion:
--Predict how much of the overall popular vote Bush and Kerry will each receive. You score bonus EVs if you are within 3 points for either, and score 25 total bonus EVs for predicting either candidate's exact percentage, rounded to the nearest whole number.
--You get bonus points for margin of victory as well in the popular vote. A maximum of 25 EVs is available for this.

3. If you predict the winner of the election correctly, you earn 25 bonus EVs.

4. The tiebreaker is to predict what percentage of the vote Ralph Nader will receive to the nearest tenth of a percent. The second tiebreaker is to predict Michael Badnarik's percentage of the vote to the nearest tenth of a percent.

Please send your predictions to devilrays1999@yahoo.com, my e-mail address. Please include your nation's name in the subject of the message. Deadline is the last midnight EST before Election Day.

I'll think about it.
What's in it for me? I didn't see a list of prizes.

We should all agree on some sort of prize...not sure what we can really offer, but I am open to ideas...

Predict the winner of each of the 51 states
Sorry, but there's only 50 states in the United States. Puerto Rico is not a state, nor does DC have full statehood. Though 51 is closer to the real number than most Americans would probably get, so good job there. I'm not even going to try putting down a state-by-state breakdown, I simply don't have the time. My guess is Kerry by a slight margin (4-15 EVs), but I'm an optimistic Democrat, so consider my numbers biased. Though everyone agrees it'll be exceedingly close.

51 states?

51 states?

As I said, DC counts as a state for purposes of this pool. I am well aware it's not a state, but I put it in as a state because it gets electoral votes just like every other state.

Edited to add: I am just too damn lazy to type "50 states plus DC". Which is why I am editing just to type it. How silly of me.

Just going to tag this for now so I can get to it later.

Maybe I should have started this thing earlier, what with all the "early" voting...

I know you said to email them, but I'm gonna put them up here for all to see.

Keruvalia's picks:

Bush States: EV total - 221

Alabama, 9 EV
Alaska, 3 EV
Arizona, 10 EV
Arkansas, 6 EV
Colorado, 9 EV
Idaho, 4 EV
Utah, 5 EV
Wyoming, 3 EV
North Dakota, 3 EV
South Dakota, 3 EV
Nebraska, 5 EV
Kansas, 6 EV
Oklahoma, 7 EV
Louisiana, 9 EV
Mississippi, 6 EV
Georgia, 15 EV
South Carolina, 8 EV
West Virginia, 5 EV
Indiana, 11 EV
Virginia, 13 EV
New Mexico, 5 EV
Montana, 3 EV
Tennesee, 11 EV
Kentucky, 8 EV
Ohio, 20 EV
Texas, 34 EV (although Tom Delay may have screwed TX for Republicans and it may go Kerry in a bizarre and very welcomed coup)

Kerry States: EV Total - 317

Washington, 11 EV
Oregon, 7 EV
California, 55 EV
Nevada, 5 EV
Hawaii, 4 EV
Minnesota, 10 EV
Iowa, 7 EV
Missouri, 11 EV
Illinois, 21 EV
Wisconsin, 10 EV
Michigan, 17 EV
Pennsylvania, 21 EV
New York, 31 EV
Florida, 27 EV
Vermont, 3 EV
New Hampshire, 4 EV
Massachusetts, 12 EV
Rhode Island, 4 EV
Connecticut, 7 EV
New Jersey, 15 EV
Delaware, 3 EV
Maryland, 10 EV
North Carolina, 15 EV
Maine, 4 EV
DC, 3 EV

Popular vote:

Kerry 57%
Bush 42%
Nader 0.8%
Badnarik 0.2%

Kerry will win the election uncontested.

Keruvalia left off seven states by my count...I know Ohio wasn't in there...

Err...scratch that...down to one state missing...turns out it's Maine...

Here is my prediction.. I'm not going to go state by state..

Kerry will win the E.C. and Bush will win the popular vote and what irony will that be! ;)

Keruvalia left off seven states by my count...I know Ohio wasn't in there...

Err...scratch that...down to one state missing...turns out it's Maine...

It was a work in progress. :) It is now done.

However, I would like to mention that Nader will win the Federated States of Micronesia by a landslide. :D

http://www.50states.com/image/micro.gif

Incertonia's picks:

Bush States: EV total - 206 (I think--my math ain't so good)

Alabama, 9 EV
Alaska, 3 EV
Arizona, 10 EV
Arkansas, 6 EV
Idaho, 4 EV
Utah, 5 EV
Wyoming, 3 EV
North Dakota, 3 EV
South Dakota, 3 EV
Nebraska, 5 EV
Kansas, 6 EV
Oklahoma, 7 EV
Louisiana, 9 EV
Mississippi, 6 EV
Georgia, 15 EV
North Carolina 15 EV
South Carolina, 8 EV
West Virginia, 5 EV
Indiana, 11 EV
Virginia, 13 EV
Montana, 3 EV
Tennesee, 11 EV
Kentucky, 8 EV
Iowa 7 EV
Texas, 34 EV (although Tom Delay may have screwed TX for Republicans and it may go Kerry in a bizarre and very welcomed coup)

Kerry States: EV Total - 329 (Same math disclaimer)

New Mexico 5 EV
Ohio 20 EV
Colorado 9 EV
Washington, 11 EV
Oregon, 7 EV
California, 55 EV
Nevada, 5 EV
Hawaii, 4 EV
Minnesota, 10 EV
Missouri, 11 EV
Illinois, 21 EV
Wisconsin, 10 EV
Michigan, 17 EV
Pennsylvania, 21 EV
New York, 31 EV
Florida, 27 EV
Vermont, 3 EV
New Hampshire, 4 EV
Massachusetts, 12 EV
Rhode Island, 4 EV
Connecticut, 7 EV
New Jersey, 15 EV
Delaware, 3 EV
Maryland, 10 EV
Maine, 4 EV
DC, 3 EV

Popular vote:

Kerry 52%
Bush 46%
Nader 0.4%
Badnarik 1.0%

Kerry will win the election uncontested.

OK, it's time we had a little fun game over this year's election. The rules are as follows:

1. Predict the winner of each of the 51 states. If you guess correctly, you win the elecoral votes for that state.
Exceptions to that are as follows:
--In Maine and Nebraska, electoral votes are divided by congressional district. In these states, you are allowed to split votes between candidates. So if you believe Kerry will win 3 EVs in Maine and Bush will win 1, you can split your vote that way. If Kerry wins all 4 EVs for that state when you split your vote, you win 3 EVs. If Kerry wins 3 EVs and Bush wins 1, you get all 4 EVs.
--In Colorado, you may split your vote based on proportion of the vote. If that motion passes, and you split your ballot correctly, you win all the EVs for that state. EVs will be taken off accordingly.
--If there is an elector that abstains anywhere in the U.S., no one receives an EV for that elector UNLESS they predict an abstention. You win the EV for predicting an abstention; you win 10 bonus EVs for predicting the correct state.
--Remember that DC counts as a state for our purposes.

2. Predict the winner of the popular vote in this fashion:
--Predict how much of the overall popular vote Bush and Kerry will each receive. You score bonus EVs if you are within 3 points for either, and score 25 total bonus EVs for predicting either candidate's exact percentage, rounded to the nearest whole number.
--You get bonus points for margin of victory as well in the popular vote. A maximum of 25 EVs is available for this.

3. If you predict the winner of the election correctly, you earn 25 bonus EVs.

4. The tiebreaker is to predict what percentage of the vote Ralph Nader will receive to the nearest tenth of a percent. The second tiebreaker is to predict Michael Badnarik's percentage of the vote to the nearest tenth of a percent.

Please send your predictions to devilrays1999@yahoo.com, my e-mail address. Please include your nation's name in the subject of the message. Deadline is the last midnight EST before Election Day.

BastardSwords's picks:

Bush States: EV total - 235

Alabama, 9 EV
Alaska, 3 EV
Arizona, 10 EV
Arkansas, 6 EV
Idaho, 4 EV
Utah, 5 EV
Wyoming, 3 EV
North Dakota, 3 EV
South Dakota, 3 EV
Nebraska, 5 EV
Kansas, 6 EV
Oklahoma, 7 EV
Louisiana, 9 EV
Mississippi, 6 EV
Georgia, 15 EV
North Carolina 15 EV
South Carolina, 8 EV
Indiana, 11 EV
Virginia, 13 EV
Montana, 3 EV
Tennesee, 11 EV
Kentucky, 8 EV
Iowa 7 EV
Maine, 1 EV
Texas, 34 EV
Florida, 27 EV

Kerry States: EV Total - 274

New Mexico 5 EV
Ohio 20 EV
West Virginia, 5 EV
Colorado 9 EV
Washington, 11 EV
Oregon, 7 EV
California, 55 EV
Nevada, 5 EV
Hawaii, 4 EV
Minnesota, 10 EV
Missouri, 11 EV
Illinois, 21 EV
Wisconsin, 10 EV
Michigan, 17 EV
Pennsylvania, 21 EV
New York, 31 EV
Vermont, 3 EV
New Hampshire, 4 EV
Massachusetts, 12 EV
Rhode Island, 4 EV
Connecticut, 7 EV
New Jersey, 15 EV
Delaware, 3 EV
Maryland, 10 EV
Maine, 3 EV
DC, 3 EV

Popular vote:

Kerry 50.5%
Bush 47.0%
Nader 0.2%
Badnarik 2.3%

Kerry will win the election very well but they will be lawyers saying that the election is rigged.

Bush: 246 (with abstention)

Alabama, 9 EV
Alaska, 3 EV
Arizona, 10 EV
Arkansas, 6 EV
Idaho, 4 EV
Utah, 5 EV
Wyoming, 3 EV
North Dakota, 3 EV
South Dakota, 3 EV
Nebraska, 5 EV
Kansas, 6 EV
Oklahoma, 7 EV
Louisiana, 9 EV
Mississippi, 6 EV
Georgia, 15 EV
North Carolina 15 EV
South Carolina, 8 EV
West Virginia, 4 EV (with abstention)
Indiana, 11 EV
Virginia, 13 EV
Montana, 3 EV
Tennesee, 11 EV
Kentucky, 8 EV
Texas, 34 EV
Missouri, 11 EV
Nevada, 5 EV
Colorado 9 EV (I predict the measure will fail)
Ohio 20 EV

Kerry: 291

New Mexico 5 EV
Washington, 11 EV
Oregon, 7 EV
California, 55 EV
Hawaii, 4 EV
Minnesota, 10 EV
Illinois, 21 EV
Wisconsin, 10 EV
Michigan, 17 EV
Pennsylvania, 21 EV
New York, 31 EV
Florida, 27 EV
Vermont, 3 EV
New Hampshire, 4 EV
Massachusetts, 12 EV
Rhode Island, 4 EV
Connecticut, 7 EV
New Jersey, 15 EV
Delaware, 3 EV
Maryland, 10 EV
Maine, 4 EV
DC, 3 EV
Iowa, 7 EV

I predict a West Virginia abstention.

Popular Vote:

Kerry 49
Bush 48
Nader 1.1%
Badnarik .3%

Bush: 246 (with abstention)

Alabama, 9 EV
Alaska, 3 EV
Arizona, 10 EV
Arkansas, 6 EV
Idaho, 4 EV
Utah, 5 EV
Wyoming, 3 EV
North Dakota, 3 EV
South Dakota, 3 EV
Nebraska, 5 EV
Kansas, 6 EV
Oklahoma, 7 EV
Louisiana, 9 EV
Mississippi, 6 EV
Georgia, 15 EV
North Carolina 15 EV
South Carolina, 8 EV
West Virginia, 4 EV (with abstention)
Indiana, 11 EV
Virginia, 13 EV
Montana, 3 EV
Tennesee, 11 EV
Kentucky, 8 EV
Texas, 34 EV
Missouri, 11 EV
Nevada, 5 EV
Colorado 9 EV (I predict the measure will fail)
Ohio 20 EV

Kerry: 291

New Mexico 5 EV
Washington, 11 EV
Oregon, 7 EV
California, 55 EV
Hawaii, 4 EV
Minnesota, 10 EV
Illinois, 21 EV
Wisconsin, 10 EV
Michigan, 17 EV
Pennsylvania, 21 EV
New York, 31 EV
Florida, 27 EV
Vermont, 3 EV
New Hampshire, 4 EV
Massachusetts, 12 EV
Rhode Island, 4 EV
Connecticut, 7 EV
New Jersey, 15 EV
Delaware, 3 EV
Maryland, 10 EV
Maine, 4 EV
DC, 3 EV
Iowa, 7 EV

I predict a West Virginia abstention.

Popular Vote:

Kerry 49
Bush 48
Nader 1.1%
Nader .3%

You have Nader twice are there two Naders?

You have Nader twice are there two Naders?

Whoops, should be Badnarik. Fixed.

You know all those third party candidates look the same...;)

I'll go ahead and put my predictions on here as well.

Bush States (total 274 EVs)

Alabama - 9
Alaska - 3
Arizona - 10
Arkansas - 6
Colorado - 9
Florida - 27
Georgia - 15
Idaho - 4
Indiana - 11
Kansas - 6
Kentucky - 8
Louisiana - 9
Mississippi - 6
Missouri - 11
Montana - 3
Nebraska - 5
Nevada - 5
North Carolina - 15
North Dakota - 3
Ohio - 20
Oklahoma - 7
South Carolina - 8
South Dakota - 3
Tennessee - 11
Texas - 34
Utah - 5
Virginia - 13
West Virginia - 5
Wyoming - 3

Kerry States (total 264 EVs)

California - 55
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
D.C. - 3
Hawaii - 4
Illinois - 21
Iowa - 7
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
New Hampshire - 4
New Jersey - 15
New Mexico - 5
New York - 31
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

Popular vote

Bush 49%
Kerry 48%
Nader 0.9%
Badnarik 0.2%

You have Nader twice are there two Naders?

Yep there are, Tumbledum and Tumbledee but at least you know where you are with Tumbledee.

BTW it is Kerry 291 Dubya 248

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Yep there are, Tumbledum and Tumbledee but at least you know where you are with Tumbledee.

BTW it is Kerry 291 Dubya 248

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

291-247 actually..your numbers add to 539 EVs, and unless Iraq gets an EV, then we still only have 538.

291-247 actually..your numbers add to 539 EVs, and unless Iraq gets an EV, then we still only have 538.
Yeah, we spend so much time in Iraq why not call it a state :)

well, any Bushies gonna give a shot at this?

I keep seeing people post how Bush "has it in the bag" and I ran a poll about who people honestly thought would win, and Bush won...so...

well, any Bushies gonna give a shot at this?

I keep seeing people post how Bush "has it in the bag" and I ran a poll about who people honestly thought would win, and Bush won...so...

OK. Bush: 1 EV from Maine and all EVs from NH, VA, WV, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL, MS, TN, KY, OH, IN, WI, IA, MO, AR, LA, TX, OK, KS, NE, SD, ND, MT, WY, CO, NM, AZ, UT, NV, ID, AK and either PA or NJ for a darkhorse. Kerry gets the rest. Popular vote: Bush 52.5% (and the first candidate to get at least 50% since his father in 1988), Kerry 46.4% (yep, second Dukakis), Nader 0.6% and the rest of the field 0.5%. But I dunno if I qualify as a "Bushie" - I'd much rather prefer Cheney (not even sure which one - perhaps Lynne for prez and Dick for VP, with the Bushes serving as "the first couple" since the Cheneys would be too busy). Oh, forgot another prediction - Republicans pick three Senate seats.

48.7 Kerry
48.8 Bush
1.7 Nader
0.1 Constitution
0.1 Green
0.5 Libertarian
0.1 All others

Kerry 321
Bush 217

Kerry win all blues states and also Florida, Ohio, NH, WV, Nev.
since California is needed (321-55=266), the election is decided
eleven minutes after the polls close in California (11:11 PM EST)

I also predict Colorado will cast 9 votes for Bush
and Neb and Maine will not split