NationStates Jolt Archive

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/17/poll.sunday/index.html
among likely voters Bush had a larger spread -- 52 percent to 44 percent. That compared with a 49 percent to 46 percent edge for Bush in the previous poll.

This is good news as it appears people are figuring out who Kerry really is, an ultra-liberal who makes Teddy Kennedy look like Ronald Reagan.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/17/poll.sunday/index.html


This is good news as it appears people are figuring out who Kerry really is, an ultra-liberal who makes Teddy Kennedy look like Ronald Reagan.
Gallup has been messing with the voter balance (again).

There was a thread around here somewhere taking bets on who would win this horse race.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/17/poll.sunday/index.html


This is good news as it appears people are figuring out who Kerry really is, an ultra-liberal who makes Teddy Kennedy look like Ronald Reagan.

lol

you should look up the meaning of the word liberal

kerrys isnt one

There was a thread around here somewhere taking bets on who would win this horse race.

There is a betting market that has predicted the presidential elections of that last 20 years with greater accuracy than any poll.

With that said... Kerry is not an ultra-liberal and Gallop uses Dem/Rep ratios that do not in any way match previous voting records. They weight Republicans as much as 8% higher than their turnout in previous elections (and the number has been pretty consistent only changing by 1% over the last 3 elections).

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/17/poll.sunday/index.html


This is good news as it appears people are figuring out who Kerry really is, an ultra-liberal who makes Teddy Kennedy look like Ronald Reagan.
Actually Kerry is the 11th most left senator not the 1st as you might be thinking.

There is a betting market that has predicted the presidential elections of that last 20 years with greater accuracy than any poll.

With that said... Kerry is not an ultra-liberal and Gallop uses Dem/Rep ratios that do not in any way match previous voting records. They weight Republicans as much as 8% higher than their turnout in previous elections (and the number has been pretty consistent only changing by 1% over the last 3 elections).
You are forgetting that in this election turnout on both sides will be a record. There seems to be strong movements on both sides that will cause this to be true. This wasn't just a Gallup, it was Gallup, USA Today, and CNN joining together on this poll.

Either way, the major polls all show Bush leading and CNN isn't a conservative outlet.

Actually Kerry is the 11th most left senator not the 1st as you might be thinking.
Accordint to the non-partisan National Review, he is the most liberal.

Accordint to the non-partisan National Review, he is the most liberal.
Only because he missed quite a few votes.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/10/17/poll.sunday/index.html


This is good news as it appears people are figuring out who Kerry really is, an ultra-liberal who makes Teddy Kennedy look like Ronald Reagan.


Oh I luv that Teddy Kennedy! But I wouldn't like him to drive me over a bridge! No sireee!

Either way, the major polls all show Bush leading and CNN isn't a conservative outlet.

The most recent poll, from Reuters, shows a statistical dead heat.

You are forgetting that in this election turnout on both sides will be a record. There seems to be strong movements on both sides that will cause this to be true. This wasn't just a Gallup, it was Gallup, USA Today, and CNN joining together on this poll.

Either way, the major polls all show Bush leading and CNN isn't a conservative outlet.
I also think there will be a record number of younger voters, and I don't think the pollsters agree.

I also think there will be a record number of younger voters, and I don't think the pollsters agree.
and recent polls show that most young voters favor Bush. Most polls show a 4-8 point lead for Bush. None of the majors show Kerry leading.

But the even better news is in the battle ground states it's Kerry 53% Bush 43% , so Kerry may just pull it off. Just might be a case of Bush winning the popular vote and Kerry winning the E.C. Now, if this does happen and one Republican says a word about Kerry not winning the popular vote, so the E.C. should be changed, I'm going to laugh my ass off.. :D

I also think there will be a record number of younger voters, and I don't think the pollsters agree.
Pollsters do agree on a record turnout for young voters.
...Which I heard greatly favor Kerry--but I guess that depends on where you are listening.
NPR here.

Pollsters do agree on a record turnout for young voters.
...Which I heard greatly favor Kerry--but I guess that depends on where you are listening.
NPR here.
I haven't seen a poll yet that shows young voters breaking Bush.

Most polls have had Bush leading for quite some time.
I believe other polls make it look closer to encourage
people to get out and vote.

The ONLY poll that got it right in 2000 was Zogby.. they have Bush 45% and Kerry 45% .. don't trust the polls this late in the game people. Use them as they are meant to be used, a snap-shot on any given day. In a race this close, all of these polls are well within the margin of error or damn close. I just don't trust polling data 15 days before the election, the USA is far too divided at the moment. Yes, even pollsters are partisans. ;)

I haven't seen a poll yet that shows young voters breaking Bush.
It came out in the Spring that the younger generation is favoring Republicans. This is part of a usual cycle. One generation supporte liberals and the next will rebel against their parents and go the opposite way and so on. It's nothing out of the ordinary.

As for swing states, Bush is winning Florida and Ohio by safe margins. If he wins those two, he wins the EC.

It came out in the Spring that the younger generation is favoring Republicans. This is part of a usual cycle. One generation supporte liberals and the next will rebel against their parents and go the opposite way and so on. It's nothing out of the ordinary.

As for swing states, Bush is winning Florida and Ohio by safe margins. If he wins those two, he wins the EC.
By that logic, I oughta be voting 3rd party. My parents support opposing candidates.

As for swing states, Bush is winning Florida and Ohio by safe margins. If he wins those two, he wins the EC.

Ohio is 49-45 for Kerry right now, according to the chicago tribune polls. Hardly a win for bush.

By that logic, I oughta be voting 3rd party. My parents support opposing candidates.
It doesn't apply to all teens, but it is a good number of teens. Polling data backs this theory up.

As for swing states, Bush is winning Florida and Ohio by safe margins. If he wins those two, he wins the EC.

You're sure about that huh IDF?

Swing State Polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html)

It came out in the Spring that the younger generation is favoring Republicans. This is part of a usual cycle. One generation supporte liberals and the next will rebel against their parents and go the opposite way and so on. It's nothing out of the ordinary.

As for swing states, Bush is winning Florida and Ohio by safe margins. If he wins those two, he wins the EC.
The spring? I see polls done now that see a heavy lean Democratic among younger voters.


Oh, and both are within 1-2% pts. Well within the MoE.

Besides, Gallup had Bush up by 16%(!) before the election, we all know how that turned out.

You're sure about that huh IDF?

Swing State Polls (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html)
most of those polls are before the 3rd debate. And, they only show mainly minor polls and seem to not be using the same polls across the same states.

most of those polls are before the 3rd debate. And, they only show mainly minor polls and seem to not be using the same polls across the same states.
Firstly, these are all fairly reputable polls. Secondly, not every poll goes over every state at the same time. The site gets the newest polls, and they should be accurate enough to get a rough sketch of how the state is going anyways.

most of those polls are before the 3rd debate. And, they only show mainly minor polls and seem to not be using the same polls across the same states.

So what? Kerry won all three debates and the polls say he won all three 42% to 34%.. I'd like to see your source for "Bush is winning Florida and Ohio by safe margins" I don't think you have your info correct. I think you're looking at national polls. Well that or you're looking at 2000 polls.. but that can't be because of your assertion about Florida.

Firstly, these are all fairly reputable polls. Secondly, not every poll goes over every state at the same time. The site gets the newest polls, and they should be accurate enough to get a rough sketch of how the state is going anyways.
I'm not saying the polls are biased, I'm saying too many of them are dated from October 2nd. While polls show Kerry winning the debate, they show Bush going up as they trush what he said and Kerry's numbers dropping due to the fact he is not a likable guy. He is a tax and spend guy who will make Bush's deficit look like a $2 betting depth. More recent polls show Bush up by 9 in Florida and 4 in Ohio. I saw my poll results from Newsweek magazine.

I'm not saying the polls are biased, I'm saying too many of them are dated from October 2nd. While polls show Kerry winning the debate, they show Bush going up as they trush what he said and Kerry's numbers dropping due to the fact he is not a likable guy. He is a tax and spend guy who will make Bush's deficit look like a $2 betting depth. More recent polls show Bush up by 9 in Florida and 4 in Ohio.
Likability should have nothing to do with who runs our government.


Source?

More recent polls show Bush up by 9 in Florida and 4 in Ohio. I saw my poll results from Newsweek magazine.

You're going by "Newsweek"? The same Newsweek that had an 11 point spread before the debates? Can you give us a link to your source please? LOL funny!

Likability should have nothing to do with who runs our government.

Job approval ratings tell a much better story historically any way. Bush is not over 50%.. that's not good news for him. No president since job approval rating polls started in 1939 has ever won re-election will job approval under 50% (except Truman) In fact I believe he's (Bush) around 47%.. will source if asked.

Job approval ratings tell a much better story historically any way. Bush is not over 50%.. that's not good news for him. No president since job approval rating polls started in 1939 has ever won re-election will job approval under 50% (except Truman) In fact I believe he's (Bush) around 47%.. will source if asked.

Not only that, but incumbents have historically never scored more than 1% above their job approval rating when the election begins. In fact, most incumbents recieved 3-5% below what their approval rating said right before the election. That might be nice and comforting for a candidate who polls at 60% approval, but conscidering Bush's numbers are below 50% and challengers tend to have a bit of a surge on election night, this is ominous for him.

Likability should have nothing to do with who runs our government.


Source?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6260444/site/newsweek/

IDF wants to use Newsweek, so be it..

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Oct. 14-15, 2004.
.

"Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?"
.
10/14-15/04

Approve - Disap-prove - Don't Know

47% - 46% - 7% -

You are forgetting that in this election turnout on both sides will be a record. There seems to be strong movements on both sides that will cause this to be true. This wasn't just a Gallup, it was Gallup, USA Today, and CNN joining together on this poll.

Either way, the major polls all show Bush leading and CNN isn't a conservative outlet.

If both sides surge you would expect the ratio to stay relatively steady, if anything giving the Democrats an advantage since the average turnout for Republicans is high while the turnout for Democrats is low.

IDF--you might want to know that Gallup is the company that actually does the poll. They're contracted by USA Today and CNN jointly to do the poll, but Gallup is the polling outfit.

The real problem with their poll is that they're ignoring their own historical precedents. Steve Soto has been breaking this down on his blog, the Left Coaster, using information Gallup has been providing him freely. Here's the basics. In order to get the numbers Gallup has provided, they have assumed that Republicans will turn out at a higher percentage than they have in the last 32 years, and that Democrats will turn out at a lower percentage than they have in the last 32 years. Now be honest--what are the chances of both of those options happening? I'd say slim and none, and slim just left town. Face it--Gallup's numbers are flawed.

This is good news as it appears people are figuring out who Kerry really is, an ultra-liberal who makes Teddy Kennedy look like Ronald Reagan.

umm... what?

how the hell is kerry liberal at all?

umm... what?

how the hell is kerry liberal at all?
He's liberal only in the deluded minds of hardcore Bush supporters.