NationStates Jolt Archive

First off, check your damn partisanship at the door. I'm tired of running in circles about "Bush is a moron" or "Kerry eats babies".

Enter the no-spin zone... ;)

Regardless of who you support, who do you honestly think is going to win?

PLEASE, do not write something like "Bush won't win because we all know he's stupid" or "Kerry won't win cause he's a lying fence-sitter".

Reference polls, electoral votes, news articles, whatever you want.

If you are interested in seeing more polls than the single newsbit that CNN or Fox run with, here they are: www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html (http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html)

The main page of electoral-vote.com is also a handy guide to state by state results.

Honestly it looks like Bush might squeak ahead

I have been evaluating and researching all the polls for awhile now, and I can say that, state by state, Kerry is doing worse in the major Republican states, but better in the battleground states than Gore did. I think he has a good chance to hold the states Gore took BASED ON THE STATE POLLS and that Florida and Ohio are still very much tossups. If Kerry wins either, and keeps Gore's wins, he wins the election.

Also, Democrats have registered many more new voters than Republicans in the battleground states. These new voters are never polled. As well, the rise of cell phones has made it so that many people no longer have a land line. These people are mostly urban city dwellers, which tend to lean left.

In that case, I think most of the polls are leaning more right than what is accurate.

AND, my single greatest piece of evidence, is that right before the 2000 election, most polls gave Bush the popular vote. Only CBS and Zogby gave Gore the popular vote (by 1 and 2% respectively). Some polls even gave the popular vote to Bush by as much as 6%. Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%.

I support Kerry, have already voted for Kerry, and honestly believe he will win.

It really doesn't matter who wins as Kerry is not much better than Bush, but given what I've seen, Bush will more likely than not win. The problem is American culture itself, not simply government.

i dont see a santa claus option, cuz thats who id vote for

I think Bush will win unfortunately, though it will be a tight race.

Kerry eats babies? :eek:

Well, at least that solves an overpopulation problem.

Kerry won't win cause he's a lying fence-sitter.

Seriously, I think he may win for numerous reason I won't go into here, and I fear my safety and my children and wife's saftety if he does win.

I see more people have voted for Kerry, even though more people have posted here saying they think Bush will pull it out.

What are your reasons for thinking Kerry will win? I've given mine.

I think it's Bush who comes out on top. For my reference, check out http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

'Nuff said.

Also, Democrats have registered many more new voters than Republicans in the battleground states. These new voters are never polled. As well, the rise of cell phones has made it so that many people no longer have a land line. These people are mostly urban city dwellers, which tend to lean left.


I have heard about this cell phone phenomenon, but I've never seen any numbers. I wonder if it's a significant share of potential voters who aren't being polled. If so, that would certainly skew the results. But does it really?

I think Bush will win, and I'm a Kerry supporter, only because it seems that Bush supports don't want to reason with facts and are voting along strictly party lines this election, especially among college kids.

I think it's Bush who comes out on top. For my reference, check out http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

'Nuff said.

Those are national polls. And they are quite similar to the numbers right before the 2000 election (although Gore won by 0.5%). I'm more interested in state polls, and electoral sums.

its too close to tell
i think its all going to come down to who gets the vote out. there is going to be an effort to discourage people from voting because it will seem useless.

so VOTE dammit. it counts this year more than ever

Those are national polls. And they are quite similar to the numbers right before the 2000 election (although Gore won by 0.5%). I'm more interested in state polls, and electoral sums.
Fair enough. Check http://www.electionprojection.com/

To me, the really disturbing aspect of this whole thing is the number of young people who seem to be for Bush. And it's disturbing because they seem to be drawn to his "real"-ness, his personal appeal, without understanding any of the issues facing America and the world.

I don't have a clue who will win, but I know Bush will get Florida. His brother, who is Florida's governor, will make sure of that.

Fair enough. Check http://www.electionprojection.com/Very religious, therefore suspect.

Seriously, I think he may win for numerous reason I won't go into here, and I fear my safety and my children and wife's saftety if he does win.

Then, leave the freaking country. Bush is worse than ANY politician in the world today.

Very religious, therefore suspect.
You're intolerant, therefore your opinion is suspect.

Fair enough. Check http://www.electionprojection.com/

Thanks. I had discounted that site a while back because of the pro-Bush links and it seemed to be a partisan website giving huge leads to Bush, but now it seems fairly accurate. Heh. And it's not because I like the numbers, it's because the numbers actually seem realistic, closer to electoral-vote.com, which is itself non-partisan.

but I know Bush will get Florida. His brother, who is Florida's governor, will make sure of that.

I said check the partisanship at the door, dammit! :p

Do you know how many people are watching Jeb, just hoping for some excuse to accuse him of fixing the vote? He knows his every move is being watched.

Thanks. I had discounted that site a while back because of the pro-Bush links and it seemed to be a partisan website giving huge leads to Bush, but now it seems fairly accurate. Heh. And it's not because I like the numbers, it's because the numbers actually seem realistic, closer to electoral-vote.com, which is itself non-partisan.

Sorry, I can't buy that argument. Electoral-vote.com is just as partisan. Spend some time reading the site (not just the poll results,) and you will see it's the Left's response to electionprojection.com.

lol i have a few friends who are going to randomly pick using the einy mieny miny mo method

I'm afraid it's going to be Bush, as much as I hate to admit it. He is playing on the fear of Americans and nobody can deny that that is effective :headbang:

Sorry, I can't buy that argument. Electoral-vote.com is just as partisan. Spend some time reading the site (not just the poll results,) and you will see it's the Left's response to electionprojection.com.

The webmaster does not distinguish which polls he likes and which ones he dislikes. Hard to get any more non-partisan than that.

On the welcome page (http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/welcome.html) , he lays out which parts of the site are partisan, which is only the humor and links sections.

For chrissake, he even included the Strategic Vision poll that put New Jersey tied.

electoral-vote.com is as nonpartisan as you can get. He takes all the polls and uses all the polls, even the obviously bogus ones (remember when Maryland was supposedly tied?)

The webmaster does not distinguish which polls he likes and which ones he dislikes. Hard to get any more non-partisan than that.

On the welcome page (http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/welcome.html) , he lays out which parts of the site are partisan, which is only the humor and links sections.

For chrissake, he even included the Strategic Vision poll that put New Jersey tied.

electoral-vote.com is as nonpartisan as you can get. He takes all the polls and uses all the polls, even the obviously bogus ones (remember when Maryland was supposedly tied?)
Electionprojection.com uses the same methods, and all polls. Not too long ago (prior to the conventions,) it showed Kerry way ahead.

Doesn't matter who wins. They're both in the same party, the uber rich. No real change is going to come about, and the saddest thing, is that we, the people of America, have the power to change it all. Yet we don't.

Badnarik

Kerry isn't going to get enough electoral votes, and if it ties it will automatically go to the republican-controlled congress and he'll still lose. Although I'm sure there will be enough outrage at the Democrats winning the popular vote and losing the electoral vote twice in a row that congress might consider getting rid of the electoral college.

I honestly think Kerry will win...and I'm supporting Bush. I just think Kerry has told enough people what they want to hear, whether realistic or not. I won't go into the details because I don't want to get into a debate over the candidates right now. But, again, I think Kerry will win the election. (If he doesn't they'll just claim that voters' rights have been violated.)

I'm predicting Bush will win, but in an even more shady way than 2000.

Bush (http://www.canada.com/national/nationalpost/news/comment/blog/index.html?post=1450)

Thanks. I had discounted that site a while back because of the pro-Bush links and it seemed to be a partisan website giving huge leads to Bush, but now it seems fairly accurate. Heh. And it's not because I like the numbers, it's because the numbers actually seem realistic, closer to electoral-vote.com, which is itself non-partisan.



I said check the partisanship at the door, dammit! :p

Do you know how many people are watching Jeb, just hoping for some excuse to accuse him of fixing the vote? He knows his every move is being watched.


Lets be honest, electoral-vote.com(which is what I use BTW) isnt exactly nonpartisan. The webmaster is fair enough to include ALL polls AND he clearly points out the biases of both Zogby and strategic vision. However, he is rooting for Kerry and he slants his opinions that way. I wouldnt exactly call him biased either though, because he seems to be about as fair as possible in this environment.

His pulling(making it harder to access) of the projected final map two weeks before the election is also highly suspect in my eyes(it consistantly leaned Bush). Not that I agreed with using a regression analysis to predict the "trend"(I think it is stupid to use that method in circumstances such as this) but he didnt seem to have a problem with it when it consistantly showed a Kerry win(eg most of this year)

I'm afraid it's going to be Bush, as much as I hate to admit it. He is playing on the fear of Americans and nobody can deny that that is effective :headbang:

Grow up, they both play on fear. Its what politicians do.

Kerry scaring seniors about social security for example. Cheney claiming Terror attacks if Kerry is elected ect.

This is how politicians play. They understand that the way to get people to the polls is to scare the crap out of them.

If your life is okay, maybe you will go to the polls and maybe you wont. If you are scared for your life or scared that you are gonna starve then you will find the time to vote instead of watching a soap opera.

All politics aside, Bush has the advantage and will capitalize, barring anything disastrous happening in the next 14 days.. Neither cell-phone users nor the youth vote are going to save Kerry, draft scare or no draft scare.

I'm a good sport though, so I'm going to gloat in polite silence, i.e. no "told-you-so" posts, and the like, on this or any other forum. Instead, I'm gonna take it all in real slow, from around 5, when the exit polls hit Drudge, to 11, when it's official. And yes, a 5-star bottle of Ouzo will be involved. ;) Maybe I'll even go out and rent Fahrenheit 9/11 for a good laugh the weekend after. :p Oh yeah, I'm gonna relish it.

All politics aside, Bush has the advantage and will capitalize, barring anything disastrous happening in the next 14 days.. Neither cell-phone users nor the youth vote are going to save Kerry, draft scare or no draft scare.

I'm a good sport though, so I'm going to gloat in polite silence, i.e. no "told-you-so" posts, and the like, on this or any other forum. Instead, I'm gonna take it all in real slow, from around 5, when the exit polls hit Drudge, to 11, when it's official. And yes, a 5-star bottle of Ouzo will be involved. ;) Maybe I'll even go out and rent Fahrenheit 9/11 for a good laugh the weekend after. :p Oh yeah, I'm gonna relish it.

And if you're wrong..?

1

Kerry is now projected to win (for the first time) on MSN Slate Magazine, which breaks down the race by poll numbers for each state....

my guess, Kerry by 10 (roughly) electorial votes and a few hundred thousand more popular votes...

but based on margin for error in the various polls, it could be Bush by a couple of electorial votes (but once again without a majority of the popular votes)

But I think the first answer is more likely

I don't think it's even possible to say who will win, it's just that close. Not to mention we don't know what elections fraud might or might not happen in this election. However all that being said.. I think Bush is going to win. I hate to say it. I gasp at the very thought..I hope I am wrong.. 4 more years of Bush would be such a mistake..I will have to not watch the news for 4 years if he does.. I won't be able to stand watching America being destroyed by that moron.

I think -and want- Kerry to win. It's not jusy because I'm a flaming liberal hippie douche, either. It's because I've seen the damage Bush can do, let's see how much damage Kerry can do.

I don't think it's even possible to say who will win, it's just that close. Not to mention we don't know what elections fraud might or might not happen in this election. However all that being said.. I think Bush is going to win. I hate to say it. I gasp at the very thought..I hope I am wrong.. 4 more years of Bush would be such a mistake..I will have to not watch the news for 4 years if he does.. I won't be able to stand watching America being destroyed by that moron.

I am in shock!!

However, Kerry would be more of a disaster than Bush has or will ever be. He will raise taxes on everyone and drive small business out of business. He has declared war on the "rich" and say they do not pay enough in taxes yet as a percentage, he and his wife pay less in taxes than I do. See him running to pay more? I don't. Ever been offered a job by a "poor" person? They do not create jobs, the "wealthy" do.

I am in shock!!

However, Kerry would be more of a disaster than Bush has or will ever be. He will raise taxes on everyone and drive small business out of business. He has declared war on the "rich" and say they do not pay enough in taxes yet as a percentage, he and his wife pay less in taxes than I do. See him running to pay more? I don't. Ever been offered a job by a "poor" person? They do not create jobs, the "wealthy" do.

I have to disagree with you there... most jobs in the US are created by small businesses, which are generally middle and upper middle class people.... even Cheney said that, not the rich, which generally have their money invested in stocks and bonds or real estate or a combination of the three

and Kerry said pointedly he would raise taxes on the richest 1% and cut them for the middle and lower classes

only risky element of his economic strategy is raising the minimun wage.. but in California it is already higher than the other 49 states and doesnt appear to have hurt California too much (we have other problems like energy costs and air pollution issues which cause the government to increase standards which raises the cost of doing business... plus some impressive water issues developing)

Make no mistake, it will come down to whichever party can out-fraud the other. I will be surprised if a winner is announced within 24 hours of the polls closing. There will be lawyers filing suit in so many places it will make 2000 Florida look like a local PTA recount.

And when that comes to light, do you think that the citizenry of the US will finally begin a discourse in how Republican/Democratic partisanship is just choking the life out of most people in America?

Yeah, I doubt it too.

and Kerry said pointedly he would raise taxes on the richest 1% and cut them for the middle and lower classes


If you're a LP, LLP or LLC, that's you. The wealthiest 1% are houesholds earning 200k or more, (could be 2 people earning 100k each, or a combination adding to 200k) which would include most small businesses, even if operating at a loss. Time to file a dummy corporation and sign those 1031 exchanges, I guess.. :headbang:

Make no mistake, it will come down to whichever party can out-fraud the other. I will be surprised if a winner is announced within 24 hours of the polls closing. There will be lawyers filing suit in so many places it will make 2000 Florida look like a local PTA recount.

And when that comes to light, do you think that the citizenry of the US will finally begin a discourse in how Republican/Democratic partisanship is just choking the life out of most people in America?

Yeah, I doubt it too.

I agree. The Dems. already have lawsuits in place and I'm sure the Repubs. do as well.

The discourse will happen and will last about as long as the anti-electoral discourse after 2000.

After it is all over (weeks probably) I think Bush is going to squeek it.

Whoever Diebold wants to win of course!

Since the CEO has said he's going to do whatever he can to see W into the whitehouse I'm inclined to believe that W is going to win. :mad:

I'm curious about something, as a Canadian who likes Americans I have to ask: What is wrong with paper ballots? I mean, is it so hard to read a name and clearly mark an "X" in the clear circle next to it?

What exactly is wrong with a recount? In 2000 all the news networks were saying "The American people just want closure" -- WTF is that? :headbang:

We just had one of the closest elections in history up here and all recount issues were settled within a week!! And that is a big deal (up here anyways) when the parliament :headbang: is divided up between FOUR major parties!

if we did things simply Afghregastan, it wouldn't be needlessly complicated enough for us...

Americans love things to be complicated, its in our nation character... just look at our history

or our tax laws...

If you're a LP, LLP or LLC, that's you. The wealthiest 1% are houesholds earning 200k or more, (could be 2 people earning 100k each, or a combination adding to 200k) which would include most small businesses, even if operating at a loss. Time to file a dummy corporation and sign those 1031 exchanges, I guess.. :headbang:

most of the small businesses are below that figure in my experience, and even family farms (which generally are rich only in capital assets, not cash) don't clear that much gross income after allowable expenses. In fact, most small business clear well below that figure.... the allowable deductions are very comphrensive for businesses in general and small businesses that aren't corporations in particular.

but that is really beside the point, if Kerry wins, he will still most likely have a Republican controlled House and probably a Republican controlled Senate (although I haven't been following state races outside of my state, so its hard to say there).... no tax bill that the Republicans don't like are going to pass. If Bush wins, then a similar situation exists because many Republicans are getting cautious about Bush's economic policies.... so neither party is going to do anything really drastic on the economic front..

which is about as nonpartisian as I can stay... which is the point of this thread... who is going to win, not who is the better candidate

I am going to stick with a 10 electoral vote win by Kerry, based on the latest polls state by state on MSN Slate Magazine

I'm curious about something, as a Canadian who likes Americans I have to ask: What is wrong with paper ballots? I mean, is it so hard to read a name and clearly mark an "X" in the clear circle next to it?
Theoretically, no. But someone has to count all those pieces of paper. (Picture someone like Grampa Simpson counting the ballots by hand: "fivehundredseventythreethousandsixhundredfortyeight, fivehundredseventythreethousandsixhundredfortynine").
It's the age of the computer, we want them to compute dammit! Even if most of them are 70's era IBM punchcard contraptions. We want answers NOW! On demand. There's no room for human error!
Uh ... yeah! And there's no room for mechanical/electronic error either!
It's all a ruse anyway.

Here's why I think Kerry will win.

1) Bush got every vote he was ever going to get in 2000 when he ran as a moderate and the media didn't challenge him on it. Ever since then, he's pandered to his base and pissed off moderate constituencies--Log Cabin Republicans, minorities, social libertarians and fiscal conservatives. And in 2000, it took a craptacular decision by the Supreme Court to swing him the win. I don't see how Bush can make substantial inroads into any Democratic constituency in 2004.

2) The Democratic party is the most motivated I've ever seen it. People are angry. Registration is through the roof, and the pollsters are missing them. And Kerry is kicking the most ass in the most important places--the swing states.

3) Turnout, turnout, turnout. It's a statistical fact that the higher the turnout, the better the Democrats do, and the polls on voter interest show more interest in this race than in any since 1976. People have been paying attention for months now. Turnout in the primaries was astoundingly high, and it will be again in the general election.

Lets be honest, electoral-vote.com(which is what I use BTW) isnt exactly nonpartisan. The webmaster is fair enough to include ALL polls AND he clearly points out the biases of both Zogby and strategic vision. However, he is rooting for Kerry and he slants his opinions that way. I wouldnt exactly call him biased either though, because he seems to be about as fair as possible in this environment.

His pulling(making it harder to access) of the projected final map two weeks before the election is also highly suspect in my eyes(it consistantly leaned Bush). Not that I agreed with using a regression analysis to predict the "trend"(I think it is stupid to use that method in circumstances such as this) but he didnt seem to have a problem with it when it consistantly showed a Kerry win(eg most of this year)

Honestly, the so-called projected map was so rediculous that keeping it as a link on the main page made little sense. He probably would have left it up if it represented numbers closer to reality.

Electionprojection.com uses the same methods, and all polls. Not too long ago (prior to the conventions,) it showed Kerry way ahead.

I did not follow electionprojection that closely, I checked it once when it showed Bush with a 300+ electoral sum, and saw the big "21 reasons while Bush will win" right above the map, and discounted it as a partisan site without doing any more research. I take back the partisan comment if they use the same polls as electoral-vote.com.

Grow up, they both play on fear. Its what politicians do.

Kerry scaring seniors about social security for example. Cheney claiming Terror attacks if Kerry is elected ect.

This is how politicians play. They understand that the way to get people to the polls is to scare the crap out of them.

If your life is okay, maybe you will go to the polls and maybe you wont. If you are scared for your life or scared that you are gonna starve then you will find the time to vote instead of watching a soap opera.

Quite true. I'm glad there is room for objective non-partisan analysis of this election.

The will be no decisive victory.

I think that Bush will win due to the documentry that was shown on all the main networks, which condemned Kerry's protesting against the Vietnam war despite winning three purple hearts.

Ok, it looks like the election is pretty much coming down to Ohio, Florida, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Nevada.

Slight Bush lead in Ohio, Florida is basically tied, Iowa and Wisconsin both lean Kerry, and Nevada leans Bush.

Kerry needs to take either of the two big ones to win, otherwise if he takes the rest it's a tie. If he takes Ohio, he also needs one more state to win.