NationStates Jolt Archive

So which state won't know if it's for Bush or Kerry until the Supreme Court rules in favour of Bush?

I think it will be Ohio. Bush is almost guaranteed to get Florida. I think Kerry will get Pennsylvania, NJ and Michigan. Ohio has been swinging for months.

So which state won't know if it's for Bush or Kerry until the Supreme Court rules in favour of Bush?

I think it will be Ohio. Bush is almost guaranteed to get Florida. I think Kerry will get Pennsylvania, NJ and Michigan. Ohio has been swinging for months.


If you believe in polls(their worth is questionable) then NJ is tied right now. If by some freak of electoral politics Bush gets NJ, then it really wont matter because he will be a lock

If you believe in polls(their worth is questionable) then NJ is tied right now. If by some freak of electoral politics Bush gets NJ, then it really wont matter because he will be a lock

I really doubt Bush is tied with Kerry in New Jersey. Polls lately have been very unpredictable and/or inaccurate. Its like a report suddenly coming out and saying Kerry has a shot in Georgia (and there was one a bit back that supposedly had Kerry within 4 points of Bush there.) My theory is if you see any radical change like that, ignore it. Chances are it is a fluke.

I'm also betting on Ohio.

I'm also betting on Ohio.

I'm betting on Florida. It would be beautifully ironic for the same incident to happen twice consecutively.

I really doubt Bush is tied with Kerry in New Jersey. Polls lately have been very unpredictable and/or inaccurate. Its like a report suddenly coming out and saying Kerry has a shot in Georgia (and there was one a bit back that supposedly had Kerry within 4 points of Bush there.) My theory is if you see any radical change like that, ignore it. Chances are it is a fluke.


Since the Mccgreavy scam, democratic support has been waning in that state. If Jewish voters realize that the party for them(Israel + income wise) is Republican not Democrat then the NJ polls make sense.

who knows, we will see nov 2.

edit: it isnt a fluke, they have been polling closely(lead to Kerry) through September

who knows, we will see nov 2.

Much agreed. The Nov 2 poll is the one I'll be paying attention to.

Much agreed. The Nov 2 poll is the one I'll be paying attention to.

Make sure to double check with the nov 3 recount, and the one on nov 4 etc. You should also confirm your views with the various state courts and the Supreme Court.

I'm also betting on Ohio.

Hey!!!

I'm thinking Florida again.

It's a friggin' tie. We should just split the country back into North vs South, let 'em have their cowboy.

We Ohioans know how to read ballots thank you very much. :mad:

i bet florida AND ohio

It's a friggin' tie. We should just split the country back into North vs South, let 'em have their cowboy.

:rolleyes:

i bet florida AND ohio

Grrr...

We Ohioans know how to read ballots thank you very much. :mad:

Yes we do indeed. And me living in Columbus, Ohio; Ohio's largest city and it's capital. I have to spred the word for my canidate and get people to get up and vote.

I'm betting the Democrats will want to recount the whole nation this time around. They recounted Florida how many times..?..and they still say G W cheated.

Grrr...
i doubt you could read a ballot

I'm betting the Democrats will want to recount the whole nation this time around. They recounted Florida how many times..?..and they still say G W cheated.

LOL. Yeah. They just might. If there is another one of those... can you say 2nd Civil War?

i doubt you could read a ballot

And just why the Hell would you say that? So we're making personal attacks now are we?

I'm betting the Democrats will want to recount the whole nation this time around. They recounted Florida how many times..?..and they still say G W cheated.

But that's only if Kerry doesn't win. If he does, the Republicans might want a re-count, to get back at the Dems.

My money's on Puerto Rico.

My money's on Puerto Rico.

:confused: They can't even vote in the Presidential election. I take it you're joking...

:confused: They can't even vote in the Presidential election. I take it you're joking...


Well that's why it would be so damn funny.

And just why the Hell would you say that? So we're making personal attacks now are we?
i thoguht it would be amusing to get you riled up

I also have to say Florida. Broward County again. They have a long track record (going back decades) of totally messed up ballots. Most because they chose to make a point by mismarking or otherwise mangling their ballot. I think some actually don't know what they are doing, but it's tough to believe that they could have that many clueless folk in one small area. Most are adults that have been voting a long time -- they have to know.

What happens if the vote is close and the "right" candidate loses? Same thing that happened in 2000, 1960, and a couple of others: the Constitution will hold everybody to the rules, and by January someone will draw the short straw and be stuck in the chair in the Oval Office.

i thoguht it would be amusing to get you riled up

I'm sure you did.

It's a friggin' tie. We should just split the country back into North vs South, let 'em have their cowboy.

It's more New England + West Coast vs. everywhere else. (Ok, DEMS got Hawaii...)

But you're right, it is neck-and-neck.
http://presidentelect.org/e2004.html
(Hit the map analysis in the middle of the page)

Colorado has a good chance! It has a proposition this year to split it's votes, and it's on the ballot to start doing so THIS year.

Check it out at:
http://www.time.com/time/covers/1101041018/ncolorado.html

I'm from Ohio, and I'm betting it'll be Ohio, unless the state feelings chage quickly. I don't think it's because Ohioans are stupid (on the contrary, we're not too bad), but I think it'll be a more policy driven problem.

1) There's the registration card weight issue. Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell ordered cards to be a certain weight (for their safety in the postal system) and this is frustrating election officials statewide. They argue that it's producing further work (for people with too light of cards: resending registration cards/informing people about the mix-ups) for an already laxative-worthy, backed up system. Registration might have trouble being complete or well organized come November 2nd.

2) Secretary Blackwell als ordered that voters vote only in their home county. Ohio Democrats have protested this. While this doesn't seem a problem if the final word is well-enough heard, there might not be a final ruling on this controversial subject until later, much too close to the election for comfort.

3) Ohioans have been told for the longest time that their going to decide a lot about this election. Frankly, our heads are too big. If our candidate doesn't win on Tuesday, there are enough very vocal, Ohio-swing convinced people out there to catch the media's attention from our outcries. This will turn a little mix-up into a far reaching scandal.

That's my understanding of it. I think it'll be Ohio, because of policy and logistical mistakes, not because of a lack of voter intelligence.

I'm betting the Democrats will want to recount the whole nation this time around. They recounted Florida how many times..?..and they still say G W cheated.

Fact is none of those recounts included various votes which were banned from the count.

I'm from Ohio, and I'm betting it'll be Ohio, unless the state feelings chage quickly. I don't think it's because Ohioans are stupid (on the contrary, we're not too bad), but I think it'll be a more policy driven problem.

1) There's the registration card weight issue. Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell ordered cards to be a certain weight (for their safety in the postal system) and this is frustrating election officials statewide. They argue that it's producing further work (for people with too light of cards: resending registration cards/informing people about the mix-ups) for an already laxative-worthy, backed up system. Registration might have trouble being complete or well organized come November 2nd.

2) Secretary Blackwell als ordered that voters vote only in their home county. Ohio Democrats have protested this. While this doesn't seem a problem if the final word is well-enough heard, there might not be a final ruling on this controversial subject until later, much too close to the election for comfort.

3) Ohioans have been told for the longest time that their going to decide a lot about this election. Frankly, our heads are too big. If our candidate doesn't win on Tuesday, there are enough very vocal, Ohio-swing convinced people out there to catch the media's attention from our outcries. This will turn a little mix-up into a far reaching scandal.

That's my understanding of it. I think it'll be Ohio, because of policy and logistical mistakes, not because of a lack of voter intelligence.

Yeah, but Blackwell seems to just like to mess with things and confuse the Hell out of us.

Deffinatly Ohio. The margin is razor-thin there. However, just because a counting crisis may occur doesn't exactly mean that this will go to the Supreme Court, or possibly any court. Of course, the best case scenario is for the election to go on without a hitch.

Colorado has a good chance! It has a proposition this year to split it's votes, and it's on the ballot to start doing so THIS year.

Check it out at:
http://www.time.com/time/covers/1101041018/ncolorado.html
I was also going to suggest Colorado, for the same reason.

Colorado has a good chance! It has a proposition this year to split it's votes, and it's on the ballot to start doing so THIS year.

Check it out at:
http://www.time.com/time/covers/1101041018/ncolorado.html

And a lawsuit has been filed against the measure which is to be expected.

It won't be Ohio. Ohio, will be a win for Bush, even if more people vote for Kerry. You see, Ohio is using Diebold voting machines, which leave no paper trail. The president of Diebold promised that Ohio would be delivered to Bush. In a public speech. And yet, somehow, very few people found this suspicious.

Oh by the way, rest assured, us NJers won't let Bush win our state...regardless of whether its half n' half.. (half n' half now, more like 3/4 after I use my 12-gauge on the residents of Hamilton :D )

I'm from Ohio, and I'm betting it'll be Ohio, unless the state feelings chage quickly. I don't think it's because Ohioans are stupid (on the contrary, we're not too bad), but I think it'll be a more policy driven problem.

1) There's the registration card weight issue. Secretary of State Kenneth Blackwell ordered cards to be a certain weight (for their safety in the postal system) and this is frustrating election officials statewide. They argue that it's producing further work (for people with too light of cards: resending registration cards/informing people about the mix-ups) for an already laxative-worthy, backed up system. Registration might have trouble being complete or well organized come November 2nd.

2) Secretary Blackwell als ordered that voters vote only in their home county. Ohio Democrats have protested this. While this doesn't seem a problem if the final word is well-enough heard, there might not be a final ruling on this controversial subject until later, much too close to the election for comfort.

3) Ohioans have been told for the longest time that their going to decide a lot about this election. Frankly, our heads are too big. If our candidate doesn't win on Tuesday, there are enough very vocal, Ohio-swing convinced people out there to catch the media's attention from our outcries. This will turn a little mix-up into a far reaching scandal.

That's my understanding of it. I think it'll be Ohio, because of policy and logistical mistakes, not because of a lack of voter intelligence.


I'm from Ohio and I agree with this post. It is BRUTAL here and people are fighting so hard for votes. Even tonight, Kerry brought up Ohio more than once in the debate, so you know Ohio is very important. If something goes down, it will be in Ohio, and it's NOT because we're stupid; it's because we're just that important.

It won't be Ohio. Ohio, will be a win for Bush, even if more people vote for Kerry. You see, Ohio is using Diebold voting machines, which leave no paper trail. The president of Diebold promised that Ohio would be delivered to Bush. In a public speech. And yet, somehow, very few people found this suspicious.

They have a president for a voting machines company? He must feel very fufilled...

My best guess is that the only real tossups are Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire.

If I had to guess, Kerry will take New Hampshire, Bush will take Florida...and Ohio, I honestly don't know.

But I'm willing to call Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and New Mexico, Oregon, Maine, and Washington for Kerry.

And I'm calling Missouri, Arizona, and Nevada for Bush.

Thus, the election is a very close call, depending on a couple states.

I have to say Ohio. About one month ago I would have said Ohio was a lock for Bush, but I think Kerry has done a great job in the state recently. He has played to the right crowds (or should I say "left" crowds), energized his base, swayed some undecided voters, etc. Now I think Ohio will be split down the middle and may wind up in - I hate to say this - recount territory. Another reason OH reminds me of Florida in 2000 is the fact that more and more reports are coming in about voter registration fraud. The AFL-CIO (this group has to drop in the eyes of the average person with the actions it has supported recently) is in the middle of an issue in some northern counties. There's another group (can't think of the name) that signed up voters but forget to turn in some of the names. There have been some similar issues which say some democrat registrations were destroyed. It's an issue on both sides (R & D). So Ohio will probably go through the "did every vote count?" garbage this year.

One other issue...Nader was originally on the ballot, then signatures on petitions were challenged and he was taken off. He's suing to be put back on the ballot. Just another wonderful twist in a crazy election.

Finally, let me say this: Anyone who has followed some of my other posts (such as Chodolo) knows I'm in Bush's corner this year. However, whether you're pro-Kerry or pro-Bush, just get out and vote. I'm disgusted by the people who don't realize what an unbelievable right we have. Look at the Afghanistan situation. People were just recently given the chance to participate in a free election. The Iraq situation - people debate whether the election process will ever happen there. Regardless of how you feel about Iraq, it should send a message to U.S. citizens who take the right to vote for granted. So, please, Kerry-Bush-Nader-whoever, just get out and vote.

Fact is none of those recounts included various votes which were banned from the count.

Not only that, but the Republicans counted numerous overseas votes that came in postmarked too late and were thus invalid. When the Democrats tried to stop it, the Republicans made a big stink about "suppressing the military vote."

Not only that, but the Republicans counted numerous overseas votes that came in postmarked too late and were thus invalid. When the Democrats tried to stop it, the Republicans made a big stink about "suppressing the military vote."

The issue for the Republicans was that the Dems were whining about "every vote counts" (which, when the rules are followed, they do), yet they wanted to throw out the military votes, as if those votes (which were mostly for Bush) shouldn't count.

As it turned out, all the fair recounts came back in Bush's favor anyway.

i think the obvious answer is california where we've had a perfectly servicable, if to some eyes lack lust governor, (yes i know, even his name was grey, poor guy) ripped from us and a vienesse weight lifter ramed down our throut in his place, for no other obvious reason then to deliver our state to the forces of pseudo-conslirvatizm.

of course as long as florida has jeb; florida will always be problematical as well. (for that matter as long as the us retains it hate-on for castro and whoever his successor(s) might happen to be).

there can be little doubt that EVERY potential 'swing' state has or will, in some way be targeted. for compromising the integrity of its voting system(s)

=^^=
.../\...

parts of Ohio, including big Franklin county, still use old electronic voting machines with no paper trail

Assuming each party holds their wins in 2000 aside from the below states they hold;
Democrat = 228
Republican = 227

They need 270 to win or 42 and 43 respectively. Here are the four staes in hottest contention and how they voted (or were decided) in 2000. No offense to Colorado. At 9 electors it would only be decisive if NJ went to Bush and OH went to Kerry, then you would rule. I figure FL is a lock for Bush.

(D) New Jersey = 15
(D) Pennsylvannia = 21
(R) Ohio = 20
(R) Florida = 25

Have some fun with this site's interactive states map http://www.grayraven.com/ec/

Assuming each party holds their wins in 2000 aside from the below states they hold;
Democrat = 228
Republican = 227

They need 270 to win or 42 and 43 respectively. Here are the four staes in hottest contention and how they voted (or were decided) in 2000. No offense to Colorado. At 9 electors it would only be decisive if NJ went to Bush and OH went to Kerry, then you would rule. I figure FL is a lock for Bush.

(D) New Jersey = 15
(D) Pennsylvannia = 21
(R) Ohio = 20
(R) Florida = 25

Have some fun with this site's interactive states map http://www.grayraven.com/ec/


Well, it's funny you include New Jersey and Pennsylvania, both considered locks for Kerry, and exclude Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire!

www.electoral-vote.com (http://www.electoral-vote.com) has ALL the polls, you need to click the state polls button for that, the main page is subject to the most recent polls, often biased.

Gore won New Jersey by 16%. Not a single poll has ever put Bush ahead, and most have put Kerry ahead by huge margins.

As for Pennsylvania, Bush is slowly cancelling ads and appearances, after the polls have given Kerry anywhere from a 2-7% lead. It's no longer a battleground state.

Likewise, Kerry has cancelled ads in Missouri and Arizona, basically conceding them to Bush.

The race is heating up in Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico.

I think Kerry can easily hold New Mexico, but Iowa and Wisconsin will be damn close. Nevada is nearing tossup status. Florida seems to lean Bush, but it's also damn close. Funny thing is, Kerry appears to have a huge lead in New Hampshire, after it went to Bush by 2%. But no one seems to be making a big deal out of NH. Ohio...is a pure tossup. Even though it went to Bush by 3.6% in 2000.

Well, it's funny you include New Jersey and Pennsylvania, both considered locks for Kerry, and exclude Wisconsin, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and New Hampshire!

Don't count out NJ! Real Clear Politics (www.realclearpolitics.com) has NJ leaning Kerry but it is not a lock.

www.electoral-vote.com (http://www.electoral-vote.com) has ALL the polls, you need to click the state polls button for that, the main page is subject to the most recent polls, often biased.

Your right about the biasness, he is a democrat but I do think he is somewhat fairer though than most Democrats. If you roll your mouse over the states, you get the poll numbers. If you click on the map, you get the state graph.

Gore won New Jersey by 16%. Not a single poll has ever put Bush ahead, and most have put Kerry ahead by huge margins.

Click on NJ State graph on electoral-vote.com. Real Clear Politics hase Kerry up by 6 but it does depend on what poll you see.

As for Pennsylvania, Bush is slowly cancelling ads and appearances, after the polls have given Kerry anywhere from a 2-7% lead. It's no longer a battleground state.

I live in PA and as far as both sides are concerned, it is still in play. Both sides are hammering away here.

Likewise, Kerry has cancelled ads in Missouri and Arizona, basically conceding them to Bush.

This is accurate

The race is heating up in Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico.

Again accurate

I think Kerry can easily hold New Mexico, but Iowa and Wisconsin will be damn close. Nevada is nearing tossup status. Florida seems to lean Bush, but it's also damn close. Funny thing is, Kerry appears to have a huge lead in New Hampshire, after it went to Bush by 2%. But no one seems to be making a big deal out of NH. Ohio...is a pure tossup. Even though it went to Bush by 3.6% in 2000.

New Hampshire is tied according to Electoral-vote.com and realclearpolitics.com! According electoral-vote.com New Mexico is barely Bush but it is a toss-up according to realclearpolitics.com! Neveda should go Kerry and electoral-vote.com has it barely Kerry and realclear politics HOWEVER, realclearpolitics has Neveda leaning Bush. There is the conflict so far. Ohio is a toss-up. No denying it.

Nice post Chodolo

Iraq.

Sorry. Couldn't resist.

And a lawsuit has been filed against the measure which is to be expected.
Yes, I too expect Colorado to be the Florida this year.

Worse case, SC rules the system is unconstitutional and the votes go to one person, big deal like Florida

Best case, SC rules system is unconstitutional, as is the current system which does not represent the people ver accurately, new system must be put into place.

I vote a system like Maine or Nebraska, keeps the checks in place while still giving the most voice to the people. Any state with 3 electoral votes would still have to go "winner takes all" anyway.

Let us not forget who governs Florida, George Bushes brother. I wonder if that had anything to do with it.

Let us not forget who governs Florida, George Bushes brother. I wonder if that had anything to do with it.

I sincerely doubt it. For one, if it got traced to him, think of the political repercussions. No politician wants to see that happen.

All of the states that have electronic voting systems and no paper trail are going to be sued immediately after the election.

Thus, all states that are too stupid to institute a paper trail will be this year's Florida.

All of the states that have electronic voting systems and no paper trail are going to be sued immediately after the election.

Thus, all states that are too stupid to institute a paper trail will be this year's Florida.

Lawsuits are already in place

Lawsuits are already in place

Yes, but many of the courts have ruled that they can't go through until someone can show harm - thus, a major election.

Yes, but many of the courts have ruled that they can't go through until someone can show harm - thus, a major election.

Yep but I'm just saying they're just ready to go and trust me, I'm expecting them to go foward.

It's a friggin' tie. We should just split the country back into North vs South, let 'em have their cowboy.

Um, does the South have to take the cowboy? Cause regardless of what you see on the news, large pockets of the Southeast are Democratic. Here in Middle Tennessee the population's pretty well divided (if bumper stickers and yard signs are a good indication). Plus the state went back to Democratic leadership in 2002 when we elected a new governor.

Of course, I'm completely ignoring the folks in the Carolinas...cause they troublemakers. ;)

Um, does the South have to take the cowboy? Cause regardless of what you see on the news, large pockets of the Southeast are Democratic. Here in Middle Tennessee the population's pretty well divided (if bumper stickers and yard signs are a good indication). Plus the state went back to Democratic leadership in 2002 when we elected a new governor.

And yet in all state polls, TN is in the Bush Category so that went right out the window ;)

Of course, I'm completely ignoring the folks in the Carolinas...cause they troublemakers. ;)

I know South Carolina has the knack for it. LOL :D

It will obviously be Wyoming and it will just be snuck be Nader on the line. Nader for President.

And yet in all state polls, TN is in the Bush Category so that went right out the window ;)

Dude, I know. And it blows my mind. I talk to a lot of folks around here and tons of the good ole boys are at least saying they are thinking about Kerry. There's a decent amount of concern over jobs, and we have a Guard unit up the road that's lost a fair share of soldiers. But in every poll we come up red. I don't understand it.

I mean in my neighborhood there's a Kerry sign for every Bush sign and it seems overwhelmingly Kerry on the uni's campus in town. All I can think of is that folks over in East Tennessee are far more conservative than I remember. Heck, even my dad (extremely conservative man) is voting for Kerry. He doesn't like him, but he's scared of Bush. Who knows, there may be a surprise in Nashville on November 2nd.

Dude, I know. And it blows my mind. I talk to a lot of folks around here and tons of the good ole boys are at least saying they are thinking about Kerry. There's a decent amount of concern over jobs, and we have a Guard unit up the road that's lost a fair share of soldiers. But in every poll we come up red. I don't understand it.

Probably because there are more Bush Supporters than Kerry supporters. That is normally how it goes.

I mean in my neighborhood there's a Kerry sign for every Bush sign and it seems overwhelmingly Kerry on the uni's campus in town. All I can think of is that folks over in East Tennessee are far more conservative than I remember. Heck, even my dad (extremely conservative man) is voting for Kerry. He doesn't like him, but he's scared of Bush. Who knows, there may be a surprise in Nashville on November 2nd.

Around here, it is a Republican Stronghold. Yea there are Kerry/Edwards signs but mostly Bush/Cheney. As for the University, I'm not surprised. I live on campus here in PA and this campus is about split. Maybe more towards Kerry. However, here's the thing about Universities. They maybe registered to vote elsewhere in the state or out of state. You have to take that into account.

Arizona

Since the Mccgreavy scam, democratic support has been waning in that state. If Jewish voters realize that the party for them(Israel + income wise) is Republican not Democrat then the NJ polls make sense.
Whether the Deomcrats are better for Israel or not is a different argument. I want highlight the IMO stupid idea that Jewish voters only care about Israel. Of course most of them support Israel, but they're Americans like the rest and I'm sure that they care about the other issues.

Whether the Deomcrats are better for Israel or not is a different argument. I want highlight the IMO stupid idea that Jewish voters only care about Israel. Of course most of them support Israel, but they're Americans like the rest and I'm sure that they care about the other issues.

I listed Israel AND Income. Israel because well they are Jewish and Income because it is my understanding that Jewish people are on average better off than the average of all people in America. 2 reasons why they should support Bush. Being Jewish isnt relevant for all the other reasons they might or might not vote for any party.

E.G. Being Jewish isnt going to have any impact on your views on the environement. Maybe it has an impact on abortion and gay marriage, but no different than a person of any religion. Thats why I didnt mention other factors.

Don't count out NJ! Real Clear Politics (www.realclearpolitics.com) has NJ leaning Kerry but it is not a lock.

Well, I'm pretty confident that Bush has NO chance in New Jersey. Strategic Vision is heavily biased in favor of Republicans. Most of the other polls show Kerry with 5-8% leads. If Zogby actually did a poll there, they'd probably show Kerry with a 20% lead! (Obviously Zogby skews heavily democrat, but it's nice to see variety.)

Your right about the biasness, he is a democrat but I do think he is somewhat fairer though than most Democrats. If you roll your mouse over the states, you get the poll numbers. If you click on the map, you get the state graph.

The webmaster is a Dem, but the site is completely impartial. He just takes the polls, even ones he is sure are very flawed, and puts them in the machine.

Click on NJ State graph on electoral-vote.com. Real Clear Politics hase Kerry up by 6 but it does depend on what poll you see.

Most of the polls done there are ones that overly favor Bush. Strategic Vision is probably the most biased. Mason-Dixon, Quinnipiac, and Survey USA (until recently) also skewed towards Bush. Rasmussen might as well. Zogby skews heavily towards the left. American Research Group probably skews a little bit to the left. Just my best estimations.

I live in PA and as far as both sides are concerned, it is still in play. Both sides are hammering away here.

Well, Bush has cut ads to PA...there could always be a surprise, but it's expected to go Kerry.

New Hampshire is tied according to Electoral-vote.com and realclearpolitics.com! According electoral-vote.com New Mexico is barely Bush but it is a toss-up according to realclearpolitics.com! Neveda should go Kerry and electoral-vote.com has it barely Kerry and realclear politics HOWEVER, realclearpolitics has Neveda leaning Bush. There is the conflict so far. Ohio is a toss-up. No denying it.

For NH, American Research Group puts it as tied. Franklin Pierce gives Kerry a 6% lead. Zogby gives him a 7% lead. Becker gives him a 6% lead. I'd say this state is definately leaning Kerry.

As for New Mexico, Gallup (which has been shown to oversample Republicans) just gives Bush a 1% lead. Zogby gives Kerry an 11% lead. Hart gives Kerry 4%, and R&P gives Kerry a 3%. This one is going to Kerry.

Nevada is just the opposite. Zogby gives Kerry a 1% lead, but Survey USA gives Bush a 4% lead. The other polls are too old to really count. I think this one will go Bush, but hey, Kerry has a definate shot here.

It's more New England + West Coast vs. everywhere else. (Ok, DEMS got Hawaii...)
And the Upper Midwest (Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota etc.)

It's not so set. Remember that as recently as 1984 New York, Massachusetts and California voted Republican. As recently as 1992 and 1996 large portions of the South and West - Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, WV, Ohio, Montana, Colorado etc. - voted Democrat.

The president of Diebold promised that Ohio would be delivered to Bush. In a public speech. And yet, somehow, very few people found this suspicious.
Source please. I'd be very interested to see this.

New Hampshire is tied according to Electoral-vote.com and realclearpolitics.com! According electoral-vote.com New Mexico is barely Bush but it is a toss-up according to realclearpolitics.com!
Have you looked how old their NH poll is? Even if the state is extremely close, it has so few electoral votes that it won't matter.

Have you looked how old their NH poll is? Even if the state is extremely close, it has so few electoral votes that it won't matter.

Yea I know I did! Unfortunately the site appears down for the day because it has not been updated today. As for their Electoral Vote number, in this election, all electoral votes matter

Source please. I'd be very interested to see this.
Just from a quick Googling (with rather strict search requirements):

http://www.commondreams.org/news2004/0120-04.htm

From the article:

Walden O'Dell, chief executive of Diebold assured Republicans in an August 14, 2003 fund-raising letter that he is "committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."

I'm betting on Florida. It would be beautifully ironic for the same incident to happen twice consecutively.
.....ironic....?
!?
*retch*

Source please. I'd be very interested to see this.
It was in (at least) TIME magazine and i think i saw it a few other places ....

It's not so set. Remember that as recently as 1984 New York, Massachusetts and California voted Republican. As recently as 1992 and 1996 large portions of the South and West - Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Kentucky, WV, Ohio, Montana, Colorado etc. - voted Democrat.

In this election, they're fairly set. Massachusetts Democrat vs. Texas Republican. The camps are fairly distinct.

The only states I think are still up in the air are (in this order of tossup-ishness) Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Iowa.

I just checked the latest poll out of NJ! According to an FDU Public Mind Poll: Has Bush and Kerry knotted at 46 Percent with nader at 1% But the RealClearPolitics average is 49.2 to 44% Kerry in the state of NJ!

Well, I'll say again, no is really considering NJ anymore of a battleground than Virginia, where Zogby put Bush only 3% ahead.

I really think this election is coming down to:

Ohio: pure tossup
Florida: tossup, might lean Bush
Wisconsin: very close Kerry lead.
Nevada: slight Bush lead.
Iowa: small Kerry lead.

If the states go which way I'm guessing, Ohio will determine the election, though if Kerry takes Florida, he still wins.

This election is very much up in the air.

Well, I'll say again, no is really considering NJ anymore of a battleground than Virginia, where Zogby put Bush only 3% ahead.

I really think this election is coming down to:

Ohio: pure tossup
Florida: tossup, might lean Bush
Wisconsin: very close Kerry lead.
Nevada: slight Bush lead.
Iowa: small Kerry lead.

If the states go which way I'm guessing, Ohio will determine the election, though if Kerry takes Florida, he still wins.

This election is very much up in the air.

Even though I disagree w/ your politics, you are one excellent number cruncher. You should be a CPA.

I say Colorado. Purely because we just passed a bill that makes our states electoral votes process so messed up, and the news stations here are saying that Colorado is shaping up to look like the Florida of this election...

I say Colorado. Purely because we just passed a bill that makes our states electoral votes process so messed up, and the news stations here are saying that Colorado is shaping up to look like the Florida of this election...

Dude, its been challenged and I'm placing bets it'll be ruled unconstitutional

hehe, I have spent hours going over the polls, past data, etc. I'm thinking of a Poli Sci major. This shit is fascinating.

And I can take myself out of my politics and be objective for a bit, it would be nice if everyone could do that. ;)

the data is here for everyone... http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html

bout the Colorado thing, the state will likely go to Bush, and the reform is likely to pass, and likely to go up to the state Supreme Court. It's already been challenged. Worth noting is state senator candidate Ken Salazar has come out against the reform.

Dude, its been challenged and I'm placing bets it'll be ruled unconstitutional

Well actully we have all ready passed the bill and it has gone into effect already, plus Colorado is also changing most of the polling places to drive-ups, where you drive up, they give you a peice of paper, you fill it out and you on your way.

Well actully we have all ready passed the bill and it has gone into effect already, plus Colorado is also changing most of the polling places to drive-ups, where you drive up, they give you a peice of paper, you fill it out and you on your way.

I'm talking about the electoral vote bill! Its been challenged and I'm willing to bet it will be ruled unconstitutional.

hehe, I have spent hours going over the polls, past data, etc. I'm thinking of a Poli Sci major. This shit is fascinating.

And I can take myself out of my politics and be objective for a bit, it would be nice if everyone could do that. ;)

the data is here for everyone... http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html

bout the Colorado thing, the state will likely go to Bush, and the reform is likely to pass, and likely to go up to the state Supreme Court. It's already been challenged. Worth noting is state senator candidate Ken Salazar has come out against the reform.

Well Ken Salazar is begging desperatly for votes, even though polls are un-relyable, it looks like it si going to be the beer man that gets into senate...

I'm talking about the electoral vote bill! Its been challenged and I'm willing to bet it will be ruled unconstitutional.

Right, I am too! and no Colorados constitution has a "fatal loophole" as the Denver Post calls it, that makes it leagal.

Well Ken Salazar is painding for votes, even though polls are un-relyable, it looks like it si going to be the beer man that gets into senate...

Salazar seems to be leading in most polls, I'll check again...

Anyhow, the Colorado reform was widely expected to get challenged. It may get ruled unconstitutional, it may not, we'll see. We probably won't know for a while.

somewhere, if Bush fails to win like he did in 2000, there will be something that squeezes him through the cracks again... like the last time.

yay for plutocracy.

get behind your government, corporate interests and banks! Vote YES on Nov 2nd to more invasions!


:rolleyes:

Salazar seems to be leading in most polls, I'll check again...

Anyhow, the Colorado reform was widely expected to get challenged. It may get ruled unconstitutional, it may not, we'll see. We probably won't know for a while.

At least Coors is leading in my county (Boulder) Where he is planing to lower the drinking age so all the partiers here (CU is # 3 for Parties!!) are happy. And again see my last post...

...and it seems overwhelmingly Kerry on the uni's campus in town.

Shocker.