NationStates Jolt Archive

Putting partisanship aside, and leaving out who you think should win, who do you think will actually win the election on Nov. 2? Bush or Kerry? By how much (number of states, electoral points, and/or percentage of popular vote)? Let's also try to leave out various conspiracy theories, like Bush is going to steal the election by paying off people or the Clintons are going to rig it for Kerry. Just be realistic. Personally, I think Bush will win with about 35 states, the vicinity of 315 electoral points, and between 48 and 52% of the popular vote.

I think Kerry will win 270 electorial college vote.

Bush by about 45 electoral votes, and about 2.5% of the popular vote. That's an honest prediction, even if I hope he takes 400 electoral votes. ;)

I think Bush will win by a few electorals.

I think kerry will end up about 3-7 short.

Momentum is for Kerry now. Knowing that, I'd give him a win by a handful of electoral votes. Bush is on the defensive much more than Kerry is right now.

Judging by the polls, I'd have to say Kerry by a small margin, although that could easily change with the third debate.

Sadly i feel that Bush will win... the world will have to hold themselves for another very chaotic 4 years.

Kerry should win in a landslide, if people bothered to evaluate the candidates for who they were, what their records were, and what they stood for. Of course, Bush is going to win by about 30 electoral votes...that's assuming that he doesn't suspend the election or something crazy. (Well, a lot of people thought he skewed the results last time, and he easily could have, so the idea of his party...umm, helping his cause in other ways...is not out of the question.)

I think Kerry will win 270 electorial college vote.
Which would send the election to the House of Representatives, whose members would elect the President...i.e., 4 more years!!!

Having said that, me-thinks Bush will take the same states he took in 2000...maybe one or two more, and end up winning by about 285-253, with 49.7% of the popular vote. Nader will take about 2%, enough to tilt at least one state that would have been for Kerry...maybe Oregon.

Bush.

Which would send the election to the House of Representatives, whose members would elect the President...i.e., 4 more years!!!

Having said that, me-thinks Bush will take the same states he took in 2000...maybe one or two more, and end up winning by about 285-253, with 49.7% of the popular vote. Nader will take about 2%, enough to tilt at least one state that would have been for Kerry...maybe Oregon.

actually, 269 sends it to the House. 270 wins.

as far as Nader goes, they predicted him to take around 5% in 2000, he only took 2%. This year it's looking like he might just barely crack 1% nationwide. Anyhow, national polls don't matter.

About Oregon, I can nearly garuntee you Kerry will take that state by a safe margin, even though Gore only took it by 0.5%.

Kerry is on track to take every state Gore did (although Wisconsin is gonna be close.) plus New Hampshire. This time around, Ohio is a tossup. And Florida...is Florida...

Kerry just needs either Florida or Ohio, considering the rest of the country is the same as 2000 (I'm predicting it will be, barring an upset in Nevada, Missouri, or Iowa).

All in all, I'm predicting a Kerry win.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

This is a pretty simple yet interesting site that shows how the election is going in a state-by-state breakdown. For some reason, I'm kinda addicted to it... I don't know why, but I like going back everyday to see the new polls.

actually, 269 sends it to the House. 270 wins.

as far as Nader goes, they predicted him to take around 5% in 2000, he only took 2%. This year it's looking like he might just barely crack 1% nationwide. Anyhow, national polls don't matter.

About Oregon, I can nearly garuntee you Kerry will take that state by a safe margin, even though Gore only took it by 0.5%.

Kerry is on track to take every state Gore did (although Wisconsin is gonna be close.) plus New Hampshire. This time around, Ohio is a tossup. And Florida...is Florida...

Kerry just needs either Florida or Ohio, considering the rest of the country is the same as 2000 (I'm predicting it will be, barring an upset in Nevada, Missouri, or Iowa).

All in all, I'm predicting a Kerry win.

By my math, Bush won 271-266 in 2000. One elector abstained in a Gore state, which brings the total to 271-267. New Hampshire would have given Gore the victory. If Kerry wins New Hampshire, he wins with all of Gore's states.

By my math, Bush won 271-266 in 2000. One elector abstained in a Gore state, which brings the total to 271-267. New Hampshire would have given Gore the victory. If Kerry wins New Hampshire, he wins with all of Gore's states.

States have changed. Some have lost, others have gained population, which equals more or less representatives, which equals more or less electoral votes. All in all, Bush 2000 states have gained 7 votes.

If every state goes the way it did in 2000, Bush would win 278-260. Kerry needs to take either Ohio or Florida.

HOWEVER, now that you've mentioned the DC voter who abstained in protest (cause DC gets no representation in Congress), that reminds me, one of the WV voters has said he may abstain in protest of Bush.

As well, there is legislation being pushed through Colorado that would split it's votes more equally. If it passes (and there is a high chance it will) Kerry would probably get 4 of the 9 votes.

So if Kerry takes New Hampshire (which seems very likely, although I could be wrong), Colorado's reform passes, and the WV voter abstains, the final result is Bush 269, Kerry 268.

Thus the House selects Bush, and with control of the Senate literally a tossup, Edwards may get chosen as VP.

Alright. So far we have Bush ahead in our makeshift poll 7-4. And please, really, lets leave out the conspiracy theories of Bush suspending elections and what not. I don't want this to turn into another thread with constant partisan bashing from both sides.