NationStates Jolt Archive

A COMPLETE ELECTORAL SUMMARY, AND MY PREDICTIONS

Democrat strongholds are California, Illinois, New York, Maryland, Delaware, D.C., New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Hawaii, and Vermont. A sum of 168 definate Kerry votes.

Republican strongholds are Utah, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, and Alaska. A sum of 170 definate Bush votes.

I am predicting...based on ALL the polls...of which I did my own extensive research...

that Kerry will easily take Minnesota, Michigan, Oregon, Maine, and Washington. Given this, Kerry has 217 solid electoral votes.

Bush will easily take Arizona, Tennessee, West Virginia, and Arkansas. Given this, Bush has 202 solid electoral votes.

I think Kerry will take Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin. If he manages this, he will have 260 electoral votes.

Gore won Pennsylvania by 4.2%, Iowa by 0.3%, Wisconsin by 0.2%, and New Mexico by 0.1%, but Kerry seems on track to take these four by more comfortable (but still close) margins. Iowa and Wisconsin are pretty damn close, though.

I think Bush will take Nevada, Missouri, and Colorado. If he manages this, he will have 227 electoral votes.

Bush seems on track to repeat his 3.3% win in Missouri, 3.6% win in Nevada, and 8.4% win in Colorado, though all three are closer (Colorado most surprisingly).

Colorado's electoral reform is favored to pass by only 1%, according to a new poll. Earlier polls showed support for it was much higher. I still think this will pass, however it is thought that this may end up in the Colorado Supreme Court, should it pass. This reform would award electoral votes proportionally to the state popular vote. This would most likely give 4 of the 9 votes to the loser, most likely Kerry.

If this passes and is upheld/unchallenged, then the likely electoral numbers will change to 264 to 223, Kerry to Bush.

Electoral Voter Richie Robbs of West Virginia has threatened to not vote for Bush. He would not vote for Kerry, but rather withhold his vote in protest (as one D.C. voter did in 2000, to protest the district's lack of representation in Congress). Thus Bush may have only 222 likely electoral votes.

New Hampshire (4 votes) is a tossup, but leans Kerry.

Florida (27 votes) is a tossup, but leans Bush.

Ohio (20 votes) is a tossup, plain and simple.

To win decisively, you need at least 270 votes. If no candidate obtains this, it gets thrown to Congress.

FOR KERRY TO WIN: He must hold his likely wins, and take either Florida or Ohio.

FOR AN ELECTORAL TIE: Kerry must take New Hampshire, Bush must take Florida and Ohio, and Richie Robbs must withdraw his state's vote to Bush.

Bush would become president again, and if the Senate shifts to Democrat control (which is itself a tossup), Edwards would replace Cheney as vice president.

FOR BUSH TO WIN: He must hold his likely wins, and take all three tossups OR he must take Florida and Ohio, and keep Richie Robbs' vote OR he must take Florida and Ohio, and Colorado's reform must fail.

So, the election itself is still very much up in the air, but I believe Kerry has a significant advantage electorally.

Basically, Kerry looks on track to take every state Gore did, and has a shot at the (in 2000) .000001% Bush-won Florida, the 3.6% Bush-won Ohio, and the 1.3% Bush-won New Hampshire.

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ALL OF THE POLLS (http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html)

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Agree? Disagree? This is not a debate thread, btw. I bet a friend $10 on Kerry and want to see if I'm right on the states.

I agree with this prediction.

\http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct10p.html

I agree with this prediction.

\http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct10p.html
I agree with this one:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct08.html. It's the post-first-debate one. I think Kerry will do very well on Wednesday, and grab a lead nationwide (a very narrow one, but a lead nonetheless).

I agree with this one:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct08.html. It's the post-first-debate one. I think Kerry will do very well on Wednesday, and grab a lead nationwide (a very narrow one, but a lead nonetheless).
Ahh, but the one I posted is a projected final based on extrapolation from all polls, not just one based on a polls taken after the first debate..

Interesting take, Chodolo. I'm going to make a couple of quibbles, but good-hearted ones.

I think Bush may eke away one of Maine's electoral votes in the 2nd Congressional district.

Kerry is going to win either Colorado or Arizona. Probably not both, but I think he's going to get one of them--probably Colorado because he'll ride Salazar's coattails to the Senate.

Kerry's going to win Ohio, and I don't think it'll be all that close in the end--by 4 or 5 points I think.

Florida will be contested legally if the electoral college is close. I have little doubt that Kerry will get more votes, but as long as you have electronic voting machines and Jeb, you never know what the final count will be. In the end, I don't think it will matter in the electoral college, because I'm betting Kerry will have 210+ electoral votes in hand before the west coast polls close for the night.

So far this map (current) has Kerry as winner. If he ace this last debate it should be in the bag for Kerry

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct10.html

Interesting take, Chodolo. I'm going to make a couple of quibbles, but good-hearted ones.

I think Bush may eke away one of Maine's electoral votes in the 2nd Congressional district.

Kerry is going to win either Colorado or Arizona. Probably not both, but I think he's going to get one of them--probably Colorado because he'll ride Salazar's coattails to the Senate.

Kerry's going to win Ohio, and I don't think it'll be all that close in the end--by 4 or 5 points I think.

Florida will be contested legally if the electoral college is close. I have little doubt that Kerry will get more votes, but as long as you have electronic voting machines and Jeb, you never know what the final count will be. In the end, I don't think it will matter in the electoral college, because I'm betting Kerry will have 210+ electoral votes in hand before the west coast polls close for the night.


I've heard about Maine's split votes...I'll do some more research into that. I know Bush didn't take any in 2000...I'll check if the numbers are more favorable for him this time around. I know he campaigned there a bit...

As for Arizona, the Democratic-leaning Zogby gives it to Bush by 3%. Kerry just pulled planned ads from the state, no longer considering it competitive. The right-leaning polls give it to Bush by more than 10%. Bush won it by 6.3% in 2000, and it's looking to be a 4-5% win this time around.

As for Colorado, Kerry is working against an 8% Gore loss in 2000. Zogby puts Kerry ahead 1%, Survey USA (heavily Republican biased) puts Bush ahead 8%, Gallup puts them tied, surprisingly...(Gallup has changed their methodology, they no longer overpoll Republicans). I'm hopeful, but honestly don't think Kerry can pull a victory here, regardless of the positive numbers for Salazar.

As for Ohio...the polls have been maddeningly inconsistent. Left-leaning American Research Group gives it to Kerry by 1%, as does right-leaning Survey USA!!! Zogby puts them tied...what's going on?? Rasmussen, which seems to be fairly in the middle, puts Bush with a 2% lead. Gore lost it by 3.6%...anything can happen here, though I am optimistic for Kerry, I have to keep it in the complete tossup category.

As for Florida, the numbers aren't looking good. Zogby only gives it to Kerry by 1%, and ARG only gives it to Kerry by 2%, while the right-leaning polls Mason-Dixon, Quinnipiac, and Strategic Visions give it to Bush by 4-5%. Also, Rasmussen gives it to Bush by 6%...although Rasmussen has seemed more left-leaning in other states, they seem way off the mark here.

So far this map (current) has Kerry as winner. If he ace this last debate it should be in the bag for Kerry

http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct10.html

I think they've got Nevada and New Mexico wrong, first off. Kerry has a 9% lead in New Mexico according to Zogby, and right-leaning Gallup only gives it to Bush by 1%. Kerry has this one, barring an upset. Whereas Nevada, Zogby puts Kerry only 1% ahead, and Survey USA puts Bush 4% ahead. Nevada will be close, but I doubt Kerry can pull it out. Gore lost it by 3.6%. I'm calling this one for Bush again, a 2-3% win.

As well, a tie in Arkansas is silly. As much as I like Zogby's results, I must admit they are heavily in favor of Kerry. Every other poll gives Bush huge leads there. Kerry doesn't have a chance.

As well, Minnesota is hardly tied. Zogby gives it to Kerry by 8%, all of Rasmussen's polls have put Kerry in a 2-3% lead, other independant polls have given Kerry safe leads, and then the latest Rasmussen is a tie. Unlikely. Gore only won it by 2.4%, but Kerry has it in the bag this time around.

As for New Hampshire, most polls put it tied dead-even, but if Zoby says Kerry leads by 7%, then I think Kerry leads by 2-4%. Although left-leaning ARG says it's tied...I still think this tossup leans Kerry.

Other than that, I think that map is what the final election is gonna look like.

I work for Kerry in Arizona, and there is noooo way we're getting this state, unfortunately.

I work for Kerry in Arizona, and there is noooo way we're getting this state, unfortunately.
I live here in Arizona, You are very right. Kerry is no more going to win Arizona than Bush is going to win California.

Wow, two fellow Arizonians! I'm in an oasis of liberalness otherwise known as Arizona State University...but Kerry has no chance here.

But do you really think Bush has a chance of taking Pennsylvania or Maine? Do you really think New Jersey will end up in a dead tie?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html

The map you gave is a prediction based on trends, which are based on the assumption that Bush's recovery after a bad summer will continue indefinately to election day.

Wow, two fellow Arizonians! I'm in an oasis of liberalness otherwise known as Arizona State University...but Kerry has no chance here.

But do you really think Bush has a chance of taking Pennsylvania or Maine? Do you really think New Jersey will end up in a dead tie?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html

The map you gave is a prediction based on trends, which are based on the assumption that Bush's recovery after a bad summer will continue indefinately to election day.
Sierra Vista, but only by military Duty Station.

Why do you call California a shoe-in for Kerry? I'm not saying I'd like Bush to win there, but think about it - they recalled their Democratic governor and replaced him with a Republican ex-bodybuilder. I definitely think Kerry ought to get the sweet 55 but I don't see it as a sure thing.

Why do you call California a shoe-in for Kerry? I'm not saying I'd like Bush to win there, but think about it - they recalled their Democratic governor and replaced him with a Republican ex-bodybuilder. I definitely think Kerry ought to get the sweet 55 but I don't see it as a sure thing.

Gore won Cali by 11.7%. Check the polls at http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html , Kerry is ahead anywhere from 9 to 13%.

Just because they elect Republicans in their own state does not indicate their national persuasion. My home state of Hawaii recently voted a Republican as governor for the first time in 40 years. Yet their Democrat electoral votes are assured. Similarly, Tom Daschle survives as a Democrat in fricken South Dakota! Yet Bush will beat Kerry by 30% there.

California is safely Kerry.


BTW, Arnie is hardly a Republican. Conservatives squirm when they hear his stances on abortion, gay rights, etc.

Why do you call California a shoe-in for Kerry? I'm not saying I'd like Bush to win there, but think about it - they recalled their Democratic governor and replaced him with a Republican ex-bodybuilder. I definitely think Kerry ought to get the sweet 55 but I don't see it as a sure thing.
Get your facts straight. We didn't replace a Democrat with a Republican. We replaced an incompetant fool with the superior canidate.

You were fed black and white facts on California as it seems.

I work for Kerry in Arizona, and there is noooo way we're getting this state, unfortunately.Good news indeed!

I think you might wnat to relook Oregon. There are over 1K Guardsmen deployed from that state, that could lead to a different outlook for any poll they cannot vote in. In addition, the families of the deployed guardsmen, will go with their soldiers view, and Oregon just might turn Red.

Kudos to your research and anaolgy.

A better detailed poll. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html)

I think you might want to relook Oregon. There are over 1K Guardsmen deployed from that state, that could lead to a different outlook for any poll they cannot vote in. In addition, the families of the deployed guardsmen, will go with their soldiers view, and Oregon just might turn Red.

Kudos to your research and anaolgy.

Zogby gives Oregon to Kerry by 10%. Given Zogby's obvious left-leanings, I'd say Kerry's lead is closer to 4-5%. Some independant poll put Kerry ahead 2%, right after the RNC, at the height of Bush's bounce. Research 2000 put him ahead 7%. Rasmussen put him ahead 4%. Survey USA, which skews heavily towards the right, put Bush ahead 1% immediately after the RNC. American Research Group put Kerry ahead 2%. As for the deployed Guardsman, 1000 voters, of whom probably a little over 500 will vote, of which probably 70% will vote Bush...it shouldn't be a large impact. I still put Oregon as safe Kerry, although it is worth noting that Gore only won it by 0.5% (!)

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As for your page J0eg0d, it doesn't even list state by state! Their poll saying "Bush is beating Kerry 51-46%" is useless. I could dig up a dozen other national polls either giving it to Kerry by 2%, or putting Bush ahead 7%, it's all rather useless. You need to call it state by state.

Where's the detail? All I see is that, plus a pie chart organizing voter concerns, 5 most visited states, campaign contributements, and irritating banner ads. ;)

www.electoral-vote.com (http://www.electoral-vote.com) collects ALL the polls and organizes them in the best easiest-to-analyze fashion.

Im betting on Bush, but lets be serious for a moment.

a) (2000) Clinton was a popular president and the economy APPEARED to be good at the time....Bush shouldnt have been able to win(well, gore was pathethic) but historically, it should have gone to the incumbant(gore) by a landslide

b) (2004) The economy is in great shape yet the incumbant(G.W.) isnt pulling away.

Given this, I think that people who are making predictions are basically throwing darts.

Gore should have won by a landslide in 2000
Bush should be leading by a landslide in 2004

Neither of these things is holding up. So who the hell knows.

Im betting on Bush, but lets be serious for a moment.

a) (2000) Clinton was a popular president and the economy APPEARED to be good at the time....Bush shouldnt have been able to win(well, gore was pathethic) but historically, it should have gone to the incumbant(gore) by a landslide

b) (2004) The economy is in great shape yet the incumbant(G.W.) isnt pulling away.

Given this, I think that people who are making predictions are basically throwing darts.

Gore should have won by a landslide in 2000
Bush should be leading by a landslide in 2004

Neither of these things is holding up. So who the hell knows.Just a couple of quibbles with your analysis. While Clinton was indeed popular and the economy was strong, Clinton wasn't running, and actually stayed largely out of the race. He was asked to do so by the DLC, a bunch of idiots if I ever saw them, because they feared Clinton fatigue in the electorate. Add in that the media did a hatchet job on Gore while giving Bush a pass, and it's no wonder that Bush got as close as he did, close enough for the Supreme Court to hand to to him. (For an interesting article on that subject, look in the latest Vanity Fair with Jude Law on the cover--interviews with Supreme Court law clerks and everything.)

Secondly, the economy right now is not in great shape. If it were, then Bush would be pulling away, no matter how Iraq was going. It's pretty surprising to me that Bush is as close as he is, considering the array of bad news against him. If I'm frustrated about anything, it's that Kerry didn't put Bush away a month ago.

Get your facts straight. We didn't replace a Democrat with a Republican. We replaced an incompetant fool with the superior canidate.

You were fed black and white facts on California as it seems.

I realise the last one was a nincompoop but did you really just call Arnold Schwarzenegger a superior condidate?

Really?!

I agree with this prediction.

\http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct10p.html
Yeah but that is on older prediction. :D

This is todays poll, and certainly nicer than the one you hold in your "favourites". :eek:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/index.html

Just a couple of quibbles with your analysis. While Clinton was indeed popular and the economy was strong, Clinton wasn't running, and actually stayed largely out of the race. He was asked to do so by the DLC, a bunch of idiots if I ever saw them, because they feared Clinton fatigue in the electorate. .

This was a really stupid thing for the Gore campaign to have done. Regardless, there was little reason for the people to have come close to voting for a change(Bush).


Add in that the media did a hatchet job on Gore while giving Bush a pass, and it's no wonder that Bush got as close as he did, close enough for the Supreme Court to hand to to him. (For an interesting article on that subject, look in the latest Vanity Fair with Jude Law on the cover--interviews with Supreme Court law clerks and everything.).

I dont think the media gave Bush a pass at all. His Nat guard record was brought up AND he was blasted with a 30yr old DUI and allegations of cocaine use. Pretty damning things for a conservative. Not to mention how relentlessly the media said Bush was a moron and Gore was brilliant even though their academic careers are roughly similar except that Gore dropped out a few more times.

Edit: just remembered the bit about how Bush is so bad on the environment that Houston's air is worse than LA's. The news failed to mention however that this was because LA's air quality had improved so much, instead they implied that Houston's had gotton worse when that wasnt the case.

As far as the Supreme court goes, it is my understanding that they simply didnt allow the Florida Supreme court to change the recount rules in the middle of the elections. Florida law(maybe federal law) requires that the same standard be applied to EVERY counties recount. Florida was using differant standards in differant counties.




Secondly, the economy right now is not in great shape. If it were, then Bush would be pulling away, no matter how Iraq was going. It's pretty surprising to me that Bush is as close as he is, considering the array of bad news against him. If I'm frustrated about anything, it's that Kerry didn't put Bush away a month ago.

I disagree, but I suppose we could argue this endlessly like the candidates are doing. The important thing to consider is that no matter what you feel about the economy, you cant seriously believe that it is in BAD shape. You might not be thrilled by the size or speed of the expansion post recession but it isnt enough to dislodge a sitting president

Anecdote: I cant hire a receptionist for twice the minimum wage. I am not even asking for a high school degree, just basic english skills.

I'm changing the opening prediction. Bush will easily take Arkansas. I'm moving it out of likely win, and into easy win.

Zogby a couple days ago put them tied...A new poll's out, Bush ahead by 9%. I'm guessing Bush will take this one by 5%.

Another change, I added the note that Wisconsin and Iowa are very close, cause they are. However, I'm not calling these tossups. I still believe Kerry will likely take them. However, it's much closer than in, say New Mexico or Pennsylvania, where I'm guessing Kerry will have 3-4% leads.

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As well, the webmaster of electoral-vote.com has taken off the link MunkeBrain gave, believing it to be hopelessly flawed. You can still access it, but it's not a link anymore on the main page.

I still believe the election will come down to Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire. There is a strange lack of polls in New Hampshire, but those that I have lead me to believe Kerry has a lead there, but I'm still considering it a tossup just due to lack of variety of polls.

Florida still looks to be favoring Bush, but the polls are so close I'm still considering it a tossup.

and Ohio...Ohio is just victim to the strangest polls. Although, I'm starting to believe Bush may have a lead there. Zogby put them tied, a bad sign. Rasmussen puts Kerry behind a few percent, bad sign. American Research Group puts Kerry ahead only 1%, bad sign. Survey USA also puts Kerry ahead 1%?! Makes no sense. I am still considering Ohio a pure tossup...but acknowledging it may be leaning Bush.

If the above scenarios play out on election day, there should be an electoral tie. The Senate is a tossup. Cheney isn't safe yet.

You're right to be circumspect about Ohio, but I still think Kerry will take it because I think the polls are impossibly flawed. New registrations are booming right now, and the Democrats are outregistering Republicans 2 to 1 throughout the state, and those people aren't showing up in likely voter models, and possibly even in registered voter models. The Democratic GOTV efforts in Ohio are incredible--in 2000, the polls but Bush up by more than 10%, and yet he only won by 4%, thanks to those efforts, and the Democrats have only gotten more inspired in the last 4 years.

You're right to be circumspect about Ohio, but I still think Kerry will take it because I think the polls are impossibly flawed. New registrations are booming right now, and the Democrats are outregistering Republicans 2 to 1 throughout the state, and those people aren't showing up in likely voter models, and possibly even in registered voter models.

The question now is whether or not these newly registered voters- particularly the 18-25 age bracket- will actually show up to vote.

The question now is whether or not these newly registered voters- particularly the 18-25 age bracket- will actually show up to vote.
If there's ever a year where newly registered voters will show up, this will be it. I've never seen an electorate motivated like this one is--more people have been paying closer attention for a longer period than in any other Presidential election I've ever seen.

Hard to tell, but heres what I'm guessing:

Bush takes the entire Bible Belt and most of the South. (Dearest God, what have I done to deserve being a liberal in Kentucky?)

Kerry nabs California and most of the west and New England.

...call me a conspiracy theorist, but I see an election-riggin' coming.

/flame on

Hard to tell, but heres what I'm guessing:

Bush takes the entire Bible Belt and most of the South. (Dearest God, what have I done to deserve being a liberal in Kentucky?)

Kerry nabs California and most of the west and New England.

...call me a conspiracy theorist, but I see an election-riggin' coming.

/flame on

heh. Kentucky. :p

as for election-rigging...there's talk of abuse of the electronic voting, but I wouldn't worry too much about it. More important is if Kerry's bounce in the past couple weeks keeps going, or falls off right before the election.

Bush takes the entire Bible Belt and most of the South. (Dearest God, what have I done to deserve being a liberal in Kentucky?)



isnt that a crime?

isnt that a crime?

It would be, but the Department of Thought Crime hasn't been invented yet. :p

Here's something very telling.

2000 Pre-Election Polls (http://www.electoral-vote.com/info/polls-2000.html)

Right before the 2000 election, various polls were giving the election to Bush by up to 6%! In fact, nearly every poll predicted a popular victory for Bush. Only two out of 15 gave the popular vote to Gore. That would be CBS by 1% and Zogby by 2%.

Gore won the popular vote by 0.5%.

That is why, I am very optimistic this time around. ;)

I give Kerry 80% chance of winning.