NationStates Jolt Archive

Seeing as Australia has returned the Conservative government of John Howard with a greater majority I reflected on the similarities between some aspects of the Australian campaign and the current campaign in the US.

Polls leading up to the election were too close to call in Australia, the same in the US.

Mark Latham (opposition) was deemed to have clearly won the televised debate, Kerry was roundly determined the winner of the first debate in the US.

Latham ran a campaign concentrating on the perceived untruths of Howard and vice versa. The US campaign seems to be running on a similar platform with the Iraq war and WMD and also the war records of both Kerry and Bush.

The campaigns seem to mirror each other in many areas, so, does this mean that Bush will be returned with a stronger majority than before or is this similarity purely coincidental?

I don't care who wins out of Bush or Kerry so please play the ball and not the man.

How very interesting . . .

but what did the Austrailian polls say prior to election? Was Latham or Howard leading them?

How very interesting . . .

but what did the Austrailian polls say prior to election? Was Latham or Howard leading them?

Howard slightly ahead early, then about even as the election rolled up.

Howard slightly ahead early, then about even as the election rolled up.
More or less, that is the same here

Seeing as Australia has returned the Conservative government of John Howard with a greater majority I reflected on the similarities between some aspects of the Australian campaign and the current campaign in the US.

Polls leading up to the election were too close to call in Australia, the same in the US.

Mark Latham (opposition) was deemed to have clearly won the televised debate, Kerry was roundly determined the winner of the first debate in the US.

Latham ran a campaign concentrating on the perceived untruths of Howard and vice versa. The US campaign seems to be running on a similar platform with the Iraq war and WMD and also the war records of both Kerry and Bush.

The campaigns seem to mirror each other in many areas, so, does this mean that Bush will be returned with a stronger majority than before or is this similarity purely coincidental?

I don't care who wins out of Bush or Kerry so please play the ball and not the man.

I'd say it's an omen that Australia will continue to support the yanks in their warmongering no matter who wins the election in the US...

The campaigns seem to mirror each other in many areas, so, does this mean that Bush will be returned with a stronger majority than before or is this similarity purely coincidental?

It does. Here's why: there's a huge gulf between the number of people who "strongly support" the President versus those who say they "strongly support" Kerry, in the polls. Additionally, kids (18-25) support Kerry by only a few points, even if they show up. In short, the President has the grassroots and strong base support, while Kerry only has hatred of Bush among a smaller core. Look out for the landslide (Bush by 4-8 points = electoral landslide).

However, from what I've heard, the war in Iraq, which is generally disapproved of in Australia, wasn't a big issue in the campaign. Howard got re-elected because of the fact that the economy has been so strong under him.

I'd say it's an omen that Australia will continue to support the yanks in their warmongering no matter who wins the election in the US...

Thanks for that....

It does. Here's why: there's a huge gulf between the number of people who "strongly support" the President versus those who say they "strongly support" Kerry, in the polls. Additionally, kids (18-25) support Kerry by only a few points, even if they show up. In short, the President has the grassroots and strong base support, while Kerry only has hatred of Bush among a smaller core. Look out for the landslide (Bush by 4-8 points = electoral landslide).

I think thats what may have happened here also. The anti-Howard people were more vocal in the leadup to the election while those that supported him just went about there business. That made the leadup polling closer than it actually was.

However, from what I've heard, the war in Iraq, which is generally disapproved of in Australia, wasn't a big issue in the campaign. Howard got re-elected because of the fact that the economy has been so strong under him.

Thats true in the sense that the Iraq war was largely a non-issue. Probably because both parties stances were not completely satisfactory to voters so they both decided to leave it alone. I agree that the current economic situation greatly helped Howard in his re-election.

was some one in the australia election as completely incompetent and stupid as bush? or is just the australia populace as stupid as most americans?

was some one in the australia election as completely incompetent and stupid as bush?

Howard is not stupid nor incompetent. Latham is not stupid but was largely "untested" in the political scene so his competence was more of an unknown.

or is just the australia populace as stupid as most americans?

The Australian population is not stupid and I do not think the American population is stupid either. So I guess my answer to that question is no.

If intrest rates are an issue, Bush will win.

It does. Here's why: there's a huge gulf between the number of people who "strongly support" the President versus those who say they "strongly support" Kerry, in the polls. Additionally, kids (18-25) support Kerry by only a few points, even if they show up. In short, the President has the grassroots and strong base support, while Kerry only has hatred of Bush among a smaller core. Look out for the landslide (Bush by 4-8 points = electoral landslide).
I don't know where you're getting your numbers frm, but they don't match up to the ones I've been seeing.

Here are some trends that favor Kerry. In the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, Democratic party voter registration has outstripped Republican registration by 2 or 3 to 1. In close elections, the undecided voters break for the challenger 3 or 4 to 1, regardless of party affiliation. There's also a problem about just how accurate the polls are this year. Zogby most notably, but other pollsters as well, has noted that the lack of younger people with landlines combined with the habit of call screening threatens to make telephone polling obsolete. Combine a large swath of the population who isn't polled with a large number of people who won't show up as voters because this will be their first time, and the polls could be off by an enormous factor--either way.

But based on the picture I see today, the trends of previous years regarding undecideds and on registration, and on the polls we have which call this thing neck and neck, I like Kerry's chances very much with just over 3 weeks to go.

If intrest rates are an issue, Bush will win.

I can definitely say that interest rates are not an issue in this election. ;)

At least, not to too many people.

I don't know where you're getting your numbers frm, but they don't match up to the ones I've been seeing.

Here are some trends that favor Kerry. In the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida, Democratic party voter registration has outstripped Republican registration by 2 or 3 to 1. In close elections, the undecided voters break for the challenger 3 or 4 to 1, regardless of party affiliation. There's also a problem about just how accurate the polls are this year. Zogby most notably, but other pollsters as well, has noted that the lack of younger people with landlines combined with the habit of call screening threatens to make telephone polling obsolete. Combine a large swath of the population who isn't polled with a large number of people who won't show up as voters because this will be their first time, and the polls could be off by an enormous factor--either way.

But based on the picture I see today, the trends of previous years regarding undecideds and on registration, and on the polls we have which call this thing neck and neck, I like Kerry's chances very much with just over 3 weeks to go.

There's problems with landlines, and I'm not counting Kerry out. However, what polling has been done, under our current methods, show the level of enthusiasm for Kerry on a gut level to be low, and that means something on election day. Kerry's favorability numbers have surged recently, because he's viewed once again as someone who can win. However, his favorability ratings have never broken 50%, (right after the DNC), while Bush's have only once dipped below 50 (again, right after the DNC, and parts of last summer). But yeah, the phone dynamics are changing, and we could all be way off, I agree.

Also - registering Republican has gone the way of the dodo. Most conservatives register independent nowadays.