In your face, republicans.
Japaican Insanity
08-10-2004, 22:51
OOOHHH You had a 12 point lead after the convention, but now, due to the first debate, kerry is slightly ahead. In your face, baby slapping, pregnant women kicking, conservatives. :p
I think the case is that Gallup stopped polling Republicans by a huge margin, and now polls a bit more equally.
Thus, the election was a virtual tie going into September, Bush had a small bounce after the RNC, and Kerry had a small bounce after the first debate, and now it's tied again.
The supposed 15% change just seems skewed.
Japaican Insanity
08-10-2004, 23:16
Now that you mention that, it does seem a bit unrealistic for polls to change that dramastically from just the convention, and then again after the debate.
Cannot think of a name
08-10-2004, 23:21
I'm on your side, more or less, but-
We still have a month to go, polls have been less and less accurate predictors lately, and anything can happen. You don't dance until you're in the endzone. Being encouraged is fine to a point, but trying to rub anything in anyones face-it's too early. There's still a fight to fight. (That and I've never found gloating to be all that dignified, on a personal level-unless you're playing a video game, then you're obligated to gloat...)
as a canadian, i can tell you: polls don't mean fuck all.
if you really want accuracy, get that psychic they had predict the canadian election. i think he was on about every party except the bloc, and he was off by three seats for them, which isn't too bad.
Suicidal Librarians
09-10-2004, 00:11
I don't think those polls mean anything. All of them depend on "likely voters" or "possible voters". It is all just a guessing game with those polls, they don't have any basic in fact.
Well, I will say this...Zogby and American Research Group skew Democrat, while Gallup, Survey USA, Strategic Vision, Mason-Dixon, and Quinnepiac skew Republican.
I think Rasmussen is fairly in the middle.