NationStates Jolt Archive

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=6410286
Despite a rather shocking preformance at the debates, Bush still manages to hang in there. Kerry has risen dramatically in support, but still hasn't beaten Bush. But hey, no one said it'd be easy for a challenger to unseat the incumbent, no matter who he is.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=6410286
Despite a rather shocking preformance at the debates, Bush still manages to hang in there. Kerry has risen dramatically in support, but still hasn't beaten Bush. But hey, no one said it'd be easy for a challenger to unseat the incumbent, no matter who he is.
I'd like to see the internals of this...

I'd like to see the internals of this...
What do you mean?

What do you mean?
The party balance ect. Newsweek has Kerry up by 4 or 5, mostly due to the fact that they messed with the internal party balance. (See the DailyKos for more on this)

Me too--so far, this is the outlier of the group. Gallup, who doesn't have their party weighting available on their site right now, has it as a tie. Newsweek had Kerry with a two point lead and the LA Times had the same, albeit with different percentages. Rasmussen has Bush holding onto a 2.5 point lead, and ARG has Kerry with a 2 point lead. Even so, the difference isn't remarkable, not like the wacky post-convention polls that gave Bush a double-digit lead that simply didn't exist.

The party balance ect. Newsweek has Kerry up by 4 or 5, mostly due to the fact that they messed with the internal party balance. (See the DailyKos for more on this)
I'm not a polling expert, but I do think that there'll be quite a few polls with different results. But I really think that the sample space polling, as this probably is, has merits. Half of the country is not Democratic, and the other half Republican. It is very uneven, and most voters only register with a party so they can vote.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=politicsNews&storyID=6410286
Despite a rather shocking preformance at the debates, Bush still manages to hang in there. Kerry has risen dramatically in support, but still hasn't beaten Bush. But hey, no one said it'd be easy for a challenger to unseat the incumbent, no matter who he is.

gave me this:


We're sorry...this story is not available.

I'm not a polling expert, but I do think that there'll be quite a few polls with different results. But I really think that the sample space polling, as this probably is, has merits. Half of the country is not Democratic, and the other half Republican. It is very uneven, and most voters only register with a party so they can vote.
yesterday, Gallup released its latest national poll carried by USA Today and CNN. According to the latest poll, Gallup shows the race tied at 49% amongst likely voters, and with Bush having a 49%-47% lead over Kerry amongst registered voters. This came after the most recent Gallup poll in late September amongst likely voters showed Bush with a 8% lead of 52%-44%, and a 53%-42% spread amongst registered voters. How is it possible that in the space of one week after one debate an 8% lead amongst likely voters has evaporated, and an 11% lead amongst registered voters has dwindled to 2%? Did the race shift that much because of one debate? If it did, this is the biggest story of the last several days.

After weeks of complaints that Gallup's samples had a GOP bias, note that their likely and registered voter results in yesterday's poll were based on party ID samples composed very closely along the lines of the 2000 exit poll turnout [...]

Likely Voter Samples

Poll of September 13-15
Reflected Bush Winning by 55%-42%

GOP: 40%
Dem: 33%
Ind: 28%

Poll of September 24-26
Reflected Bush Winning by 52%-44%

GOP: 43%
Dem: 31%
Ind: 25%

Poll of October 1-3
Reflected Dead Heat 49%-49%
772 Likely Voters

GOP: 35%
Dem: 39%
Ind: 26%

Folks, for Gallup's likely voter methodology to be accurate you would have to accept that there was a 16% swing in party self-identification in one week, with 8% fewer likely voters self-identifying as Republicans and 8% more self-identifying as Democrats.

Damn, CSW--you beat me to it. :D

Edit: the link to the website that provided that information is here. (http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/002932.html) It's Steve Soto's website.

Look guys, I don't want to argue with you on this. I spent the entire weekend doing just that at Yale, and I'm tired of it. If you wish to shoot me, the messanger, fine by me. I just hope you guys burn in the process.

Look guys, I don't want to argue with you on this. I spent the entire weekend doing just that at Yale, and I'm tired of it. If you wish to shoot me, the messanger, fine by me. I just hope you guys burn in the process.
Yale...Say hi to a guy named Jason Chu if you see him...well, saw him.

Look guys, I don't want to argue with you on this. I spent the entire weekend doing just that at Yale, and I'm tired of it. If you wish to shoot me, the messanger, fine by me. I just hope you guys burn in the process.
No no--I'm not looking for an argument here, and I hope you didn't take it that way. I was thinking of this more as a discussion of polling and the way they work. Sorry if you felt attacked--that wasn't my intention, I assure you.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3658490.stm

Combination of:
ABC News/Washington Post; CBS News/ New York Times; and CNN/USA Today/Gallup.

Shows Bush ahead 49 to 47 (margin of error +/- 3%, so in effect even).

Yale...Say hi to a guy named Jason Chu if you see him...well, saw him.
Sorry, didn't. Did you go there or something?

Sorry, didn't. Did you go there or something?
No, Jason Chu is a friend of mine who goes there, he used to go to my school before he graduated.

No no--I'm not looking for an argument here, and I hope you didn't take it that way. I was thinking of this more as a discussion of polling and the way they work. Sorry if you felt attacked--that wasn't my intention, I assure you.
Okie dokie.

No, Jason Chu is a friend of mine who goes there, he used to go to my school before he graduated.
Oh, okay. But even if I was looking for him, I probably would never find him. Yale is extremely big, and very sprawled. But just out of curiosity, what college did you go to?

Dont know if it has been posted yet, but here is the link to the results of the Gallup poll.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/usatoday/20041004/ts_usatoday/bushkerryinadrawpollsays&e=4

Bush is still holding up and tied with Kerry, but Kerry has made gains in virtually every category.

Kerry is moving on up! :D

Anyhow, about Yale, I find a great paradox to exist. Bush went there, yet New Haven is one of the most liberal cities in America.

Anyhow, about Yale, I find a great paradox to exist. Bush went there, yet New Haven is one of the most liberal cities in America.
Elite colleges exist beyond political biases for the most part. You will find conservative bastions is what are perceived to be the most liberal institutions, simply because they are the elite. Hell, Stanford is home to the Hoover Institute, one of the most traditionally conservative groups around, but it's in the Bay Area, which is perhaps the most liberal area of the country.

Anyhow, about Yale, I find a great paradox to exist. Bush went there, yet New Haven is one of the most liberal cities in America.
If I am remembering this correctly, Bush hated his time at Yale. (which would explain his comment during the debate; "you went to yale, i wont hold that against you.") I'd heard he essentially only went there because his father and grandfather both went there and expected it of him as well.

If I am remembering this correctly, Bush hated his time at Yale. (which would explain his comment during the debate; "you went to yale, i wont hold that against you.") I'd heard he essentially only went there because his father and grandfather both went there and expected it of him as well.
Well, Yale is nothing more than a cluster of nice, old buildings inside a giant ghetto. I don't think I'd go even if I were accepted (which would be unlikely).

Elite colleges exist beyond political biases for the most part. You will find conservative bastions is what are perceived to be the most liberal institutions, simply because they are the elite. Hell, Stanford is home to the Hoover Institute, one of the most traditionally conservative groups around, but it's in the Bay Area, which is perhaps the most liberal area of the country.
I think it's simply diversity of thought. Why are these schools on the Ivy League, anyhow? It's not that Yale itself is liberal, but as always, some of the students.

Well, Yale is nothing more than a cluster of nice, old buildings inside a giant ghetto. I don't think I'd go even if I were accepted (which would be unlikely).

I've never been up there, but I'd probably go simply because Yale has such a good educational reputation. There is nothing like having a diploma from a prestigious and high ranking university on your resume.

I've never been up there, but I'd probably go simply because Yale has such a good educational reputation. There is nothing like having a diploma from a prestigious and high ranking university on your resume.
Then go to Harvard or Princeton if that's what you're looking for. They always occupy the top three spots of the list of best colleges in the US, so the best factor is livability. I'm going to Harvard on a student trip this February, and Boston is definatly more livable. Princeton is a very nice place to be. But Yale is crap. Besides, the buildings aren't well maintained.
Of course, the best Ivy League school is Cornell, even if only because I live near there :). But don't any of you think that these schools will accept anyone. I'm not even sure I can get into a tier two school.

Oh, okay. But even if I was looking for him, I probably would never find him. Yale is extremely big, and very sprawled. But just out of curiosity, what college did you go to?
I'm not, he's a freshman at Yale, and I was a freshman last year (long story) at this school (the one I'm going to now).

I'm not, he's a freshman at Yale, and I was a freshman last year (long story) at this school (the one I'm going to now).
Which one? I might know it.

Which one? I might know it.
The school?

Long story about this, Charter School of Wilmington (No, thats not where I get my CSW from)

The school?

Long story about this, Charter School of Wilmington (No, thats not where I get my CSW from)
I won't press further. Anyhow, I thought CSX was a West Virginian company.

I won't press further. Anyhow, I thought CSX was a West Virginian company.
Yup, a railroad company, that isn't it either though. I don't think any of our juniors went on a romp through Yale...what was it for, just college visits?

Bush's lead is dead gone.

Its tied.

http://www.pollingreport.com/

MSNBC reported today that Kerry leads at 52%.


No more years

ARG reports Kerry up by 3

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Its a good thing.

Kerry has risen dramatically in support, but still hasn't beaten Bush.
Risen dramatically? Where in the world did you pull that from. Of the 2,000 people in the entire United States who actually watched the entire debate, not one in the polled audience changed their mind except for one man who had formerly chosen Nader and switched to Bush. Everyone else, unfortunately, was already asleep by the 50 minute mark and missed the part where Kerry actually pwned Bush. Too bad... for you!

I won't press further. Anyhow, I thought CSX was a West Virginian company.

Just HAD to bring me in here didn't ya! CSX is a company formed from the merger of Chessie and Seaboard. Seaboard was a Florida company and Chessie was headquartered in Ohio. CSX has its headquarters in Virginia, though you're right, it should be here. CSX is widely associated with West Virginia because of all the coal they haul out of here. Norfolk Southern too, but to a much lesser extent. Of course, with Norfolk, its more obvious where they are headquartered.

CSX is, by and large, a very decent company. They keep their tracks and domain clean and do an excellent job with their coal hauling. For the most part, West Virginia is quite fond of them, to a much greater extent than the companies from which they haul their coal from.

Oh, and Euclid...two things.

1. Be very wary of the polls. If you look at the last several presidential elections, you'll notice that none were even close to what the actual result was. This holds especially true now since cell phones are not included in polls and so many households now use them exclusively. When you exclude a large portion of the population, your end results are altered as well.

2. If you want Ivy League experience but don't want the New England campuses, go to Penn. A fantastic school!

Just HAD to bring me in here didn't ya! CSX is a company formed from the merger of Chessie and Seaboard. Seaboard was a Florida company and Chessie was headquartered in Ohio. CSX has its headquarters in Virginia, though you're right, it should be here. CSX is widely associated with West Virginia because of all the coal they haul out of here. Norfolk Southern too, but to a much lesser extent. Of course, with Norfolk, its more obvious where they are headquartered.

CSX is, by and large, a very decent company. They keep their tracks and domain clean and do an excellent job with their coal hauling. For the most part, West Virginia is quite fond of them, to a much greater extent than the companies from which they haul their coal from.
Aren't you just a CSX fan. Anyhow, where I live, a car was smashed because a gate and sirens at a railroad crossing didn't work (CSX owned). It killed both people inside.
Oh, and Euclid...two things.

1. Be very wary of the polls. If you look at the last several presidential elections, you'll notice that none were even close to what the actual result was. This holds especially true now since cell phones are not included in polls and so many households now use them exclusively. When you exclude a large portion of the population, your end results are altered as well.
I know. I'm just wishfully hoping that this is right.
2. If you want Ivy League experience but don't want the New England campuses, go to Penn. A fantastic school!
I'd prefer Cornell myself. A school just two hours from where I live. Besides, it's the cheapest of the eight Ivy League schools, as some of its colleges have land grants.

I don't tout polls when they show my candidate in the lead and I don't besmirch them when the opponent leads. IMO polls are basically crap which are manipulated by both sides. This campaign is essentially boiling down to a contest between brains and balls.
The vast majority of american voters didn't even watch the debates and the vote of the least educated, fact ignorant, party line moron can still effectively cancel out my vote regardless of how smart, informed and enlightened I believe myself to be. Vive le democracie!
A repeat of election histrionics circa 2000 are virtually assured this year, and in every election in the forseeable future.
Gods bless America, we're gonna need it.

Gods bless America, we're gonna need it.Personally, I think God's taken a powder on this one. He's telling us to work our own shit out this time and leave Him out of it.

Look guys, I don't want to argue with you on this. I spent the entire weekend doing just that at Yale, and I'm tired of it. If you wish to shoot me, the messanger, fine by me. I just hope you guys burn in the process.
Naw - No weaponry. Just talking here. What is the variance on the poll +/-4% or so?

ARG reports Kerry up by 3

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
He has 28 days - 4 long weeks to grow that.
T - R - A - C - T - I - O - N Baby!