NationStates Jolt Archive

Bad news for the Neocons today.

It seems as though Kerry's decisive victory in the first Presidential Debate has caused Bush's lead in the polls to evaporate.
I too, was concerned that Kerry's chances were declining, but it seems as though its still anybodys game.

With Bush's odds of winning the next two debates in a state of doubt, it looks like these numbers just may increase.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6159637/site/newsweek/

While that's good news, just remember, polls don't really amount to much. The election is won by the electoral college, and polls usually have a 3.5 margin of error, which means that the shift could just easily be a fluke. Also, polls rely greatly on many assumptions which, arguably, make the polls incorrect. For example, they assume that the same number of Dems and Reps who voted last time will vote again, or that only likely voters will vote. Most importantly, the number of voters registering this year is kind of amazing, and polls definetely don't take that into account.

I agree completely.

Poll numbers are not indicative of a winner.
They just represent a small target group.
However, to my mind, this means that more and more people, on an average, are choosing Kerry.
Really, I believe more and more people are tired of un-needed war, and economic struggles at home are taking thier tolls on the average citizens opinion of Bush.

(I call it "sanity".)

November 2....30 days from today....wow, so close and yet so far.