TJHairball
01-10-2004, 05:26
So, for those of you who missed it, or weren't paying attention, my brief notes and take on the debate follow. I would've posted this under my [non-moderator] nation normally, but that browser is crashed and I have other stuff I need to get done tonight, so here ya go:
TJ's notes.on the debate
In the initial question, the captioning for ABC said 70%, but the president said 75% of the Al-Qaeda leadership had been captured. This was not the only error in the captioning, understandably. Also not unexpectedly, Bush spent much of his initial air time mentioning "9/11 attacks" as much as coherently possible.
Asked about how the security of the United States would be affected by Kerry being elected, Bush states simply that "I don't believe that's going to happen." [Kerry getting elected] and then avoids saying anything relevant to the question for the next two minutes.
Kerry, said relatively little more except about his conviction on the matter in rebuttal, but it was very interesting to see an alleged waffler state very firmly and to the point, straight off the bat, that he "will hunt down and kill" terrorists who attack the United States.
On the third question, Kerry set forth the claim that the Bush administration has been changing its position on the matter a great deal, and that "his campaign has a word for that," the first oblique reference made by Kerry about the charges of waffling by the Bush campaign.
Bush, in turn, cited that Kerry made the same mistakes he did about the intelligence leading up to the Iraq war. He also said something that I find very interesting:
"Saddam Hussein had no intention of disarming." This is very curious when (a) we know he used to have lots of weapons needing to be disarmed and (b) next to none of these WMDs he used to have have been found in Iraq. The obvious conclusion to be made is that Saddam not only intended to, but actually did disarm his WMDs. Bush also cited 9/11 as a fundamental change in American policy.
The next question was posited as to the relative priority of Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush: "We can do both," then played the fear card and talked about how "we have strong alliances." He also mis-spoke in a very volatile fashion. I will, of course, remember this phrase, although many of the pundits will probably neglect to mention it in the papers tommorrow morning.
"Of course we're after Saddam Hussein - I mean, Osama bin Laden." Kerry, in turn, went over various failings he perceived in how Bush has been managing the Iraq/Afghanistan situation, emphasizing one key phrase. "You don't do that."
Also quotable: "We don't have enough troops there."
Bush, in turn, repeated that "You voted the same," and then uttered the following very curious phrase: "Follow through on the plan I just outlined." Appropriately quoted, perhaps I should write "..on the plan I just [did not] outline," since Bush had not outlined any plan during his 30 second spot or his previous 2 minute spot that I could discern.
In the next question, Kerry picked up the pace and went directly into his plans. "I'll tell you exactly what I'll do," noting that tax cuts for people like him and Bush are a lower priority than homeland security ("That's who gets it," referring to Bush and himself. Bush did not address this point that I noticed.) Kerry also brought up the issue of loose nuclear materials in the former USSR, one of his themes for the night.
Bush said in response, "I don't see how you'll pay for that, but that's another debate," and then stated what was to be his theme on security for the night. "The best way to protect is to go on the offense."
Classic, but I don't think it's necessarily accurate in this case myself. I did not find Bush's conceptions of the flow of offense and defense (classically or not) particularly apt myself applied to direct physical combat and doubt them even more in a strategic sense, considering the factor motivation plays in terrorism.
On the sixth question, where we see the matter of exit strategy from Iraq, we see Bush get very hesitant. During this awkward moment of silence preceding his speech, I started to notice that Kerry would jot a note down to himself every now and then during Bush's speeches, and nod very slightly occasionally. Kerry, in turn, then quoted George Bush Sr.'s book talking about why Bush I didn't go into Baghdad, which seemed very apt today in light of what has happened since we marched on Baghdad.
I did not, regrettably, take this quote down; Bush then interrupted to repeat the exact same phrases from his initial response to the question. Bush seemed to impatiently interrupt several times during the debate.
The next question (#7) saw Kerry draw a very interesting analogy, which I found particularly interesting. He said that attacking Iraq for 9/11 would be roughly on par with FDR deciding to invade Mexico in response to Pearl Harbor. Bush responded by saying that Kerry insults our allies by playing down their participation.
Question #8 had to do with the quagmire that Iraq seems to have become. Bush set forth the confident explanation that the reason why we're having trouble in Iraq now is that we did too good of a job in conquering the country in the first place, and that he expected more (and bloodier) resistance initially, in which most of Saddam's loyalists would've died. A quotable quote: "I see on the TV screens how hard it is." [He was speaking of the job soldiers do.]
Kerry turned the question on its head. "Osama bin Laden uses the invasion of Iraq," setting forth the case that the war in Iraq is making America less safe. I happen to agree with this; I've been of this opinion for some time. The only possible way that being at war in Iraq makes it safer at home is that terror attacks tend to be targeted at our troops... and this is temporary. By aiding terrorist recruitment, the [i]capacity of terrorists is indubitably increased by providing a strong propaganda tool like the US invasion of Iraq.
At this point, I stopped numbering the questions; as some of my pages of notes may have fallen out of order, the questions may no longer be sequential.
A question was offered as to the legally of pre-emptive strikes; Kerry affirmed the pre-emptive strike as a valid option open to the president of the United States since the Cold War (notably, the Cuban Missile Crisis). He went on to cite the level of credibility and justification required, and quoted de Gaulle as having said [during the Cuban Missile Crisis] "The word of the President of the United States is good enough for me," [for evidence] and asked what world leader would say that today.
Bush: "I wouldn't join the ICC." Here, he is talking about the treaties he hasn't signed, and mentioning this as one treaty he can be proud about not signing. Lays claim that Kerry supports signing on with the ICC; Kerry did not speak of the ICC during this debate that I noticed.
Asked about nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea, Bush brought up that multilateral talks with North Korea and several other nearby interested nations have been ongoing. It is curious that he did not think to bring this up earlier, when Kerry was criticizing his lack of multilateral meetings; Bush also spoke of Iran, mainly in terms of how the IEA has been dealing with Iran.
Kerry responded by saying that the United States has ceased to negotiate with North Korea, and in this time North Korea has developed nuclear weapons, and that had he been in charge, we'd've seen him approach other nations to speak about sanctions against Iran if they didn't cooperate. Bush, in turn, noted that we already have sanctions against Iran; at the beginning of his response to the next question (on Sudan) Kerry noted that he meant getting other nations to cooperate in sanctions against Iran. Bush, at the start of his rebuttal on the question about Sudan (lowering himself to the same extra-format pettiness - and irrelevantly), in turn said that he wasn't the one who started the US policy of sanctions against Iran.
On Sudan, Kerry said that he would send troops if nothing else would work, [as a last resort, after delineating the other options] and noted that he intends to expand the army by two divisions and double the special forces to enable the US to keep up with its non-Iraq commitments. Bush then said "I agree that we shouldn't send troops."
Let me repeat the key there:
[b]Kerry said that he would send troops. [As a last resort.]
Bush said he agreed with Kerry that we shouldn't send troops into Sudan at all. I was not particularly impressed by this "agreeing.
On another page of notes, I have a truncated Bush position. "The only consistent thing about my [a pause here] opponent's position" [phrase ends with something along the lines of "that it keeps changing," but I didn't feel like writing down this repetition.] On the same question, Bush set forth a very interesting claim... that "your enemy does not decide how defend America."
When your enemy attacks, he forces the decision. Either you defend where he attacks you, or you get smacked. I'd say that means your enemies - their nature, abilities, styles, and motivations - determine how you defend yourself. Unless you want to get screwed over by defending ineffectually.
The question following that one asked if what we have accomplished in Iraq is worth the cost. Bush opened with a touching anecdote about meeting with the wife of a departed soldier. A curious phrase with regard to this wife: "...to love her as best as I can." Kerry also had an interesting phrase fragment in response to this question, in listing the things he would do to make things better: "by cutting-" and cut himself off. One wonders what he was thinking about cutting; here he called the "Bush plan" "four words: more of the same."
Bush took his thirty second response to this to reiterate one of his most often repeated phrases during the debate. "Wrong war, wrong place, wrong time." He also took this point to couch the Iraq war as a "diversion," a term he used for the Iraq war repeatedly during the debate. In both cases, Bush appears to have been trying to firmly plant this phrase in association with Kerry, but I find it touching that Bush himself said it so often that I may as well quote him on it.
The next question (about Iraq, again) Kerry said that it is very important to make it clear that "The United States has no long term designs on Iraq," which Bush has been doing a very poor job of. Bush in turn interrupted to say that "We're going to win" [in Iraq].
The following question, little sticks in my mind but the following conjunction of Bush statements: "I never wanted to commit troops." "I never dreamt" [during the 2000 election that he would go to war] and the tolling phrase "No doubt in my mind." Well, there was no doubt in [i]my mind back in 2000 that the Bush team was interested in invading Iraq, and I wasn't the only one thinking that back in 2000. Maybe I was wrong, or maybe Bush has a bad memory, or just maybe this is a bit fishy.
Asked about the recent crackdowns by President Putin in Russia, Bush completely failed to pronounce Vladimir. I'm sorry, but that bothers me, if you claim someone to be a personal friend but can't pronounce his given name. Quotable quote: He intends to "disagree in a way that's effective" with Putin on this. Aside from reiterating about "the enemy," probably his second favorite word/phrase of the debate, and speaking of Russia as an important ally (diplomatically put, there, for once), he closed by saying "I will continue working with him over the years," as if the notion that there should be some sort of fair democratic elections in both countries is completely irrelevant.
Kerry brought up in response that he was there visiting the USSR after the iron curtain fell. Quotable quotes: "We always have to stand up for democracy." [Although I daresay I didn't hear him advocate fomenting democratic revolutions in our "allies."] "Just because the president of the United States said so doesn't mean it is so." I really like these two lines on the whole; heck, I could say these in complete honesty.
Bush took his 30 seconds to turn the clock back a few questions and talk about how Kerry also believed the intelligence leading up to the Iraq war, which Kerry responded to in kind very bluntly.
We then come to the final section of the debate, when Bush was asked if there was anything about Kerry's character that he felt should disqualify Kerry from becoming the president. Bush squirmed, said that was a "loaded question," (I must agree - asking about the character of your opponent is like fishing for ad hominem attacks) and proceeded to compliment Kerry's service to the country, his family, etc. It looked like watching someone have teeth pulled, but it was a good call. Then, of course, he said that he didn't like how Kerry waffles, saying a couple interesting things: "I just know how the world works," and the two word phrase that sent chills down my spine: "Strategic Beliefs."
What in tarnation is a Strategic Belief? I do not like the sound of that, sorry.
Kerry responded by saying it is entirely possible to be certain, but dead wrong, implying of course that this is what has been the case with Bush and him, the difference being that Kerry realized that he had reached an incorrect conclusion. Slick.
Bush took 30 seconds and noted that "We will shift tactics," but that this is somehow different from waffling. Kerry then put the matter bluntly: "I've never wilted or wavered in my life," ending it on a very alpha-male do-you-want-to-call-me-a-liar-to-my-face note. Bush didn't take him up on it, but then again, we were on to the next question - what is the greatest threat facing America?
Kerry: "Nuclear proliferation is the great threat." Bush seemed to agree, but phrased this as weapons of mass destruction in the hands of terrorists, and also claimed to have made progress in stopping "shipment of information or weapons of mass destruction materials," and brought up missile defense as also important.
It bugged me that he said Kim Jing Il and Kim Chung Il during this, but you know me - always getting riled up about little things.
On the closing statements, I have little to say. Quotable:
Kerry: "I'm not talking about leaving, I'm talking about winning." "Freedom, not fear." [i]He makes me feel so warm and fuzzy inside...
Bush: "If we show uncertainty or weakness..." "The military will be an all-volunteer army." If the draft comes back, this quote better go on the wall as one of the Big Lies. " "Fight across the world so we don't have to fight at home." "May God continue to bless our great land." Avoid saying this right after mentioning 9/11 and hurricanes. He did a good job of avoiding that, actually.
In conclusion, I'd say that Kerry did better in the debate; yes, I'm biased, but I'd have to say that Bush's campaign managers were right to want to avoid having debates. I know, I know, this isn't the entire debate transcript, nor a very in-depth analysis, but I just felt like posting this. Feel free to pass this brief reduction of the debate along to those who missed seeing the actual debate.
TJ's notes.on the debate
In the initial question, the captioning for ABC said 70%, but the president said 75% of the Al-Qaeda leadership had been captured. This was not the only error in the captioning, understandably. Also not unexpectedly, Bush spent much of his initial air time mentioning "9/11 attacks" as much as coherently possible.
Asked about how the security of the United States would be affected by Kerry being elected, Bush states simply that "I don't believe that's going to happen." [Kerry getting elected] and then avoids saying anything relevant to the question for the next two minutes.
Kerry, said relatively little more except about his conviction on the matter in rebuttal, but it was very interesting to see an alleged waffler state very firmly and to the point, straight off the bat, that he "will hunt down and kill" terrorists who attack the United States.
On the third question, Kerry set forth the claim that the Bush administration has been changing its position on the matter a great deal, and that "his campaign has a word for that," the first oblique reference made by Kerry about the charges of waffling by the Bush campaign.
Bush, in turn, cited that Kerry made the same mistakes he did about the intelligence leading up to the Iraq war. He also said something that I find very interesting:
"Saddam Hussein had no intention of disarming." This is very curious when (a) we know he used to have lots of weapons needing to be disarmed and (b) next to none of these WMDs he used to have have been found in Iraq. The obvious conclusion to be made is that Saddam not only intended to, but actually did disarm his WMDs. Bush also cited 9/11 as a fundamental change in American policy.
The next question was posited as to the relative priority of Iraq and Afghanistan. Bush: "We can do both," then played the fear card and talked about how "we have strong alliances." He also mis-spoke in a very volatile fashion. I will, of course, remember this phrase, although many of the pundits will probably neglect to mention it in the papers tommorrow morning.
"Of course we're after Saddam Hussein - I mean, Osama bin Laden." Kerry, in turn, went over various failings he perceived in how Bush has been managing the Iraq/Afghanistan situation, emphasizing one key phrase. "You don't do that."
Also quotable: "We don't have enough troops there."
Bush, in turn, repeated that "You voted the same," and then uttered the following very curious phrase: "Follow through on the plan I just outlined." Appropriately quoted, perhaps I should write "..on the plan I just [did not] outline," since Bush had not outlined any plan during his 30 second spot or his previous 2 minute spot that I could discern.
In the next question, Kerry picked up the pace and went directly into his plans. "I'll tell you exactly what I'll do," noting that tax cuts for people like him and Bush are a lower priority than homeland security ("That's who gets it," referring to Bush and himself. Bush did not address this point that I noticed.) Kerry also brought up the issue of loose nuclear materials in the former USSR, one of his themes for the night.
Bush said in response, "I don't see how you'll pay for that, but that's another debate," and then stated what was to be his theme on security for the night. "The best way to protect is to go on the offense."
Classic, but I don't think it's necessarily accurate in this case myself. I did not find Bush's conceptions of the flow of offense and defense (classically or not) particularly apt myself applied to direct physical combat and doubt them even more in a strategic sense, considering the factor motivation plays in terrorism.
On the sixth question, where we see the matter of exit strategy from Iraq, we see Bush get very hesitant. During this awkward moment of silence preceding his speech, I started to notice that Kerry would jot a note down to himself every now and then during Bush's speeches, and nod very slightly occasionally. Kerry, in turn, then quoted George Bush Sr.'s book talking about why Bush I didn't go into Baghdad, which seemed very apt today in light of what has happened since we marched on Baghdad.
I did not, regrettably, take this quote down; Bush then interrupted to repeat the exact same phrases from his initial response to the question. Bush seemed to impatiently interrupt several times during the debate.
The next question (#7) saw Kerry draw a very interesting analogy, which I found particularly interesting. He said that attacking Iraq for 9/11 would be roughly on par with FDR deciding to invade Mexico in response to Pearl Harbor. Bush responded by saying that Kerry insults our allies by playing down their participation.
Question #8 had to do with the quagmire that Iraq seems to have become. Bush set forth the confident explanation that the reason why we're having trouble in Iraq now is that we did too good of a job in conquering the country in the first place, and that he expected more (and bloodier) resistance initially, in which most of Saddam's loyalists would've died. A quotable quote: "I see on the TV screens how hard it is." [He was speaking of the job soldiers do.]
Kerry turned the question on its head. "Osama bin Laden uses the invasion of Iraq," setting forth the case that the war in Iraq is making America less safe. I happen to agree with this; I've been of this opinion for some time. The only possible way that being at war in Iraq makes it safer at home is that terror attacks tend to be targeted at our troops... and this is temporary. By aiding terrorist recruitment, the [i]capacity of terrorists is indubitably increased by providing a strong propaganda tool like the US invasion of Iraq.
At this point, I stopped numbering the questions; as some of my pages of notes may have fallen out of order, the questions may no longer be sequential.
A question was offered as to the legally of pre-emptive strikes; Kerry affirmed the pre-emptive strike as a valid option open to the president of the United States since the Cold War (notably, the Cuban Missile Crisis). He went on to cite the level of credibility and justification required, and quoted de Gaulle as having said [during the Cuban Missile Crisis] "The word of the President of the United States is good enough for me," [for evidence] and asked what world leader would say that today.
Bush: "I wouldn't join the ICC." Here, he is talking about the treaties he hasn't signed, and mentioning this as one treaty he can be proud about not signing. Lays claim that Kerry supports signing on with the ICC; Kerry did not speak of the ICC during this debate that I noticed.
Asked about nuclear proliferation in Iran and North Korea, Bush brought up that multilateral talks with North Korea and several other nearby interested nations have been ongoing. It is curious that he did not think to bring this up earlier, when Kerry was criticizing his lack of multilateral meetings; Bush also spoke of Iran, mainly in terms of how the IEA has been dealing with Iran.
Kerry responded by saying that the United States has ceased to negotiate with North Korea, and in this time North Korea has developed nuclear weapons, and that had he been in charge, we'd've seen him approach other nations to speak about sanctions against Iran if they didn't cooperate. Bush, in turn, noted that we already have sanctions against Iran; at the beginning of his response to the next question (on Sudan) Kerry noted that he meant getting other nations to cooperate in sanctions against Iran. Bush, at the start of his rebuttal on the question about Sudan (lowering himself to the same extra-format pettiness - and irrelevantly), in turn said that he wasn't the one who started the US policy of sanctions against Iran.
On Sudan, Kerry said that he would send troops if nothing else would work, [as a last resort, after delineating the other options] and noted that he intends to expand the army by two divisions and double the special forces to enable the US to keep up with its non-Iraq commitments. Bush then said "I agree that we shouldn't send troops."
Let me repeat the key there:
[b]Kerry said that he would send troops. [As a last resort.]
Bush said he agreed with Kerry that we shouldn't send troops into Sudan at all. I was not particularly impressed by this "agreeing.
On another page of notes, I have a truncated Bush position. "The only consistent thing about my [a pause here] opponent's position" [phrase ends with something along the lines of "that it keeps changing," but I didn't feel like writing down this repetition.] On the same question, Bush set forth a very interesting claim... that "your enemy does not decide how defend America."
When your enemy attacks, he forces the decision. Either you defend where he attacks you, or you get smacked. I'd say that means your enemies - their nature, abilities, styles, and motivations - determine how you defend yourself. Unless you want to get screwed over by defending ineffectually.
The question following that one asked if what we have accomplished in Iraq is worth the cost. Bush opened with a touching anecdote about meeting with the wife of a departed soldier. A curious phrase with regard to this wife: "...to love her as best as I can." Kerry also had an interesting phrase fragment in response to this question, in listing the things he would do to make things better: "by cutting-" and cut himself off. One wonders what he was thinking about cutting; here he called the "Bush plan" "four words: more of the same."
Bush took his thirty second response to this to reiterate one of his most often repeated phrases during the debate. "Wrong war, wrong place, wrong time." He also took this point to couch the Iraq war as a "diversion," a term he used for the Iraq war repeatedly during the debate. In both cases, Bush appears to have been trying to firmly plant this phrase in association with Kerry, but I find it touching that Bush himself said it so often that I may as well quote him on it.
The next question (about Iraq, again) Kerry said that it is very important to make it clear that "The United States has no long term designs on Iraq," which Bush has been doing a very poor job of. Bush in turn interrupted to say that "We're going to win" [in Iraq].
The following question, little sticks in my mind but the following conjunction of Bush statements: "I never wanted to commit troops." "I never dreamt" [during the 2000 election that he would go to war] and the tolling phrase "No doubt in my mind." Well, there was no doubt in [i]my mind back in 2000 that the Bush team was interested in invading Iraq, and I wasn't the only one thinking that back in 2000. Maybe I was wrong, or maybe Bush has a bad memory, or just maybe this is a bit fishy.
Asked about the recent crackdowns by President Putin in Russia, Bush completely failed to pronounce Vladimir. I'm sorry, but that bothers me, if you claim someone to be a personal friend but can't pronounce his given name. Quotable quote: He intends to "disagree in a way that's effective" with Putin on this. Aside from reiterating about "the enemy," probably his second favorite word/phrase of the debate, and speaking of Russia as an important ally (diplomatically put, there, for once), he closed by saying "I will continue working with him over the years," as if the notion that there should be some sort of fair democratic elections in both countries is completely irrelevant.
Kerry brought up in response that he was there visiting the USSR after the iron curtain fell. Quotable quotes: "We always have to stand up for democracy." [Although I daresay I didn't hear him advocate fomenting democratic revolutions in our "allies."] "Just because the president of the United States said so doesn't mean it is so." I really like these two lines on the whole; heck, I could say these in complete honesty.
Bush took his 30 seconds to turn the clock back a few questions and talk about how Kerry also believed the intelligence leading up to the Iraq war, which Kerry responded to in kind very bluntly.
We then come to the final section of the debate, when Bush was asked if there was anything about Kerry's character that he felt should disqualify Kerry from becoming the president. Bush squirmed, said that was a "loaded question," (I must agree - asking about the character of your opponent is like fishing for ad hominem attacks) and proceeded to compliment Kerry's service to the country, his family, etc. It looked like watching someone have teeth pulled, but it was a good call. Then, of course, he said that he didn't like how Kerry waffles, saying a couple interesting things: "I just know how the world works," and the two word phrase that sent chills down my spine: "Strategic Beliefs."
What in tarnation is a Strategic Belief? I do not like the sound of that, sorry.
Kerry responded by saying it is entirely possible to be certain, but dead wrong, implying of course that this is what has been the case with Bush and him, the difference being that Kerry realized that he had reached an incorrect conclusion. Slick.
Bush took 30 seconds and noted that "We will shift tactics," but that this is somehow different from waffling. Kerry then put the matter bluntly: "I've never wilted or wavered in my life," ending it on a very alpha-male do-you-want-to-call-me-a-liar-to-my-face note. Bush didn't take him up on it, but then again, we were on to the next question - what is the greatest threat facing America?
Kerry: "Nuclear proliferation is the great threat." Bush seemed to agree, but phrased this as weapons of mass destruction in the hands of terrorists, and also claimed to have made progress in stopping "shipment of information or weapons of mass destruction materials," and brought up missile defense as also important.
It bugged me that he said Kim Jing Il and Kim Chung Il during this, but you know me - always getting riled up about little things.
On the closing statements, I have little to say. Quotable:
Kerry: "I'm not talking about leaving, I'm talking about winning." "Freedom, not fear." [i]He makes me feel so warm and fuzzy inside...
Bush: "If we show uncertainty or weakness..." "The military will be an all-volunteer army." If the draft comes back, this quote better go on the wall as one of the Big Lies. " "Fight across the world so we don't have to fight at home." "May God continue to bless our great land." Avoid saying this right after mentioning 9/11 and hurricanes. He did a good job of avoiding that, actually.
In conclusion, I'd say that Kerry did better in the debate; yes, I'm biased, but I'd have to say that Bush's campaign managers were right to want to avoid having debates. I know, I know, this isn't the entire debate transcript, nor a very in-depth analysis, but I just felt like posting this. Feel free to pass this brief reduction of the debate along to those who missed seeing the actual debate.