NationStates Jolt Archive

What do you guys think? I think a lot could change with the debate this Thursday, but Kerry's definatley had better days.

Kerry's in a lot better shape than anyone wants to admit. Democrats have been registering far more new voters than the Republicans have been, especially in battleground states, and those people aren't showing up in likely voter polling models. Throw in that Kerry is a traditionally strong closer, and that undecided voters go 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 for the challenger on election day, and Bush is in serious trouble.

And the Heads are coming (http://www.headcount.org/)

Eh? EH?




okay that doesn't really contribute, but it is my favorite get out the vote group so far...

How bout the polls putting kerry at 8-10 points behind? Those are off, then?

How bout the polls putting kerry at 8-10 points behind? Those are off, then?
National polls done by Time, Gallup and Newsweek? Yes. They've been oversampling Republicans.

But more importantly, what we learned so strongly in 2000 was that the national poll numbers mean jack shit. What counts in the end is the electoral college, and neither candidate has wrapped that up yet--neither one is even close as a matter of fact.

I live in a conservative town where we dont even have democrats on the local elections.
This year, I see Kerry signs everywhere.

I dont see as many Bush signs on peoples lawns.

I see a lot of peoples homes.

Here's the only thing I've seen regarding the Electoral College so far.
I haven't checked it's legitimacy or credentials though.
http://presidentelect.org/e2004.html

Bush definintely doesn't have it. The question is, do the American people care/can they see it?

What do you guys think? I think a lot could change with the debate this Thursday, but Kerry's definatley had better days.
The election is not until November 2. Until then, Bush has squat. If Bush wins on November 2, then the US will have squat.

Bush's many failures:

Foreign Policy

Fiscal Policy

Economic Policy

Environmental Policy

Health Care Policy

These aren't minor failures, they are HUGE!!

The election is not until November 2. Until then, Bush has squat. If Bush wins on November 2, then the US will have squat.

Bush's many failures:

Foreign Policy

Fiscal Policy

Economic Policy

Environmental Policy

Health Care Policy

These aren't minor failures, they are HUGE!!
Yub yub. No Dick and no Bush in 2004!!!

Kerry's in a lot better shape than anyone wants to admit. Democrats have been registering far more new voters than the Republicans have been, especially in battleground states, and those people aren't showing up in likely voter polling models. Throw in that Kerry is a traditionally strong closer, and that undecided voters go 3 to 1 or 4 to 1 for the challenger on election day, and Bush is in serious trouble.

That's all well and good, except that Bush has this little thing called the October surprise...oh yeah, and the ability to sell his lousy policies as good ideas. I notice he isn't saying much about his tax breaks for outsourcing jobs overseas...there must be a reason for that...

The election is not until November 2. Until then, Bush has squat. If Bush wins on November 2, then the US will have squat.

Bush's many failures:

Foreign Policy

Fiscal Policy

Economic Policy

Environmental Policy

Health Care Policy

These aren't minor failures, they are HUGE!!

Look, clearly they are all clintons fault. You can't right 8 years damage in one term, right?

Look, clearly they are all clintons fault. You can't right 8 years damage in one term, right?

Clinton didn't rack up trillions in deficits, nor did he cheese off the majority of our allies...contrary to what some neocons will tell you, Bush could have gotten the French and Germans to agree to the Iraq war at least passively with a little bit of negotiation. Bush just doesn't like diplomacy. Also, Clinton didn't jack up Medicare costs on the same scale Bush did, and he certainly didn't use ironically-named policies aimed at destroying the environment...err, I mean, allowing corporations more freedom.

That's all well and good, except that Bush has this little thing called the October surprise...oh yeah, and the ability to sell his lousy policies as good ideas. I notice he isn't saying much about his tax breaks for outsourcing jobs overseas...there must be a reason for that...I have to believe that the public is prepared for any sort of military "October surprise." We've done a pretty good job of making ourselves paranoid over the last 50 years or so, and a magical capture of Bin Laden on October 23 would strike a lot of people as more than a bit suspicious.

Guys...guys...we don't need another Bush policies vs. Kerry or Clinton policies.


I will address the issue of who's going to win though.

And it is a tossup.

And...it's likely gonna come down to Florida. If Kerry holds Minnesota, Florida would give him the win. If Kerry can't take Florida, he would have to take several Bush-leaning states, unlikely. If Kerry loses Minnesota, he would have to compensate with some combination with New Hampshire (a tossup) and another state. But Kerry should be able to hold Minnesota.

So Florida it is, then. Florida should determine the election...AGAIN.

And the latest poll puts Kerry ahead by 1% there.

here's a nice list of the MANY polls in Florida: http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html#florida

and in graph form: http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/florida.html

I have to believe that the public is prepared for any sort of military "October surprise." We've done a pretty good job of making ourselves paranoid over the last 50 years or so, and a magical capture of Bin Laden on October 23 would strike a lot of people as more than a bit suspicious.

We're talking about a public that is falling for the line about liberals banning Bibles...or some of them are, anyway...so I hardly have faith in the public in that regard.

We're talking about a public that is falling for the line about liberals banning Bibles...or some of them are, anyway...so I hardly have faith in the public in that regard.Leave me my delusions. I know. I know. I know. These are people who are fascinated by Britney Spears' wedding, for crying out loud. Sometimes I wonder if all it would take is waggling a set of car keys in their faces right outside the voting booth.

You have your opinion
I have my opinion
We have our opinions
and others have theirs.

You have your opinion
I have my opinion
We have our opinions
and others have theirs.
There's a difference though. Being stubborn in the face of overwhelming evidence to contrary reality than what you claim or believe in does not make for a suitable opinion to convince others with it.

here's a nice list of the MANY polls in Florida: http://www.electoral-vote.com/pastpolls.html#florida

and in graph form: http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/florida.html


You should look at other projection sites as well. That's the one that tends to give the most favorable results to Kerry that you could possibly have picked, of the ones you've seen. It's consistently demonstrated this bias.

I suggest consulting others, like http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html , http://www.coldheartedtruth.com/projection.html , http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm , and http://www.federalreview.com/compositepoll.htm to get a better-rounded picture of what multiple sources are saying.

While it's possible electoral-vote could be correct, be aware of its liberal bias. Just the same, be aware of electionprojection's conservative bias. But once you've looked at several sites and their methodologies (and I've no idea which has the best of all of those, but the info is available for better statisticians than me), you may have a clearer understanding.

I think that some version of the Florida fiasco will happen every time from here on out. Considering what was accomplished (or almost accomplished, depending on your perspective) last time, I think that we can count on politicians to try it rather than admit defeat. And elections will probably all be close enough for doubt and agony for many years yet. America is simply that polarized, in my opinion.

I don't know, you might be right, but I personally think Ohio is a more important state this time around. Whoever takes Ohio will win. That's my prediction.