NationStates Jolt Archive

I live in a small Michigan town of about 35,000 people.
Its the world headquarters of a major chemical company.
It makes plastic sandwich bags, and scrubbing bubbles...things like that.
Its also the current world record holder for "Most Churches per Capita".

Its one of the last Republican strongholds in Michigan.
On the local elections, we often dont even have Democratic or third party candidates. A freind of mine ran for state representative, just becuase the candidate ran unopposed.
He lost.

BUT...

I drive pizzas around for a living, currently.
I see a lot of peoples homes.

Lately,
Ive seen more Kerry/Edwards signs on people's lawns than ever.
In fact, Ive seen more Kerry signs than George Bush.

I wonder, if this is indicative of things to come?

I wonder, if this is indicative of things to come?

We can only hope.

It might be. For all the talk that this election will be won in Iraq, I still think people vote with their pocketbooks, and the economy continues to be shaky for everyone but the investor class, and they don't make up more than half the country.

It should also be noted that the war is hitting the poor disproportionately as well, and they're the ones getting shafted the worst by it. Don't be surprised if the military isn't overwhelmingly Republican this time around, especially among the rank and file.

Indeed.

See, the latest Gallup Poll, has Bush ahead.
But, two other leading polls have it at a dead tie, so I dont know what to believe.

But If even the smallest conservative, hard-core christian, republican stronghold in Michigan is leaning towards Kerry....maybe the nation is too?

Hey BackwoodsSquatches, if you log on MSN perhaps we could have another chat.. if you're up to it :)

Steph, is anyone on the IRC politics channel?

Indeed.

See, the latest Gallup Poll, has Bush ahead.
But, two other leading polls have it at a dead tie, so I dont know what to believe.

But If even the smallest conservative, hard-core christian, republican stronghold in Michigan is leaning towards Kerry....maybe the nation is too?
The Gallup poll is flawed--they're oversampling Republicans. They've got Republicans as 40% of the electorate in their likely voter model, when in the last 3 presidential elections, they've never made up more than 34% of the electorate, while they've got Democrats down around 29% I believe, and they're traditionally in the 35-37% range. Independents make up the other third. If you resample based on traditional turnout models, you wind up with a tied race. Don't sweat it.

Check out the methodology over at Donkey Rising--Ruy Teixiera's blog.

That is good news then.