NationStates Jolt Archive


Kerry or Hillary - One or the other?

Trakken
13-09-2004, 20:43
With so many Democrats and pundits talking about Hillary wanting to run for president - If Kerry wins, does that pretty much eliminate any chance of this ever happening?

If Kerry wins, optomisticly, you can assume he'll run for 2 terms and has at least a 50/50 chance of winning. That's 8 years. In 2012, you have to expect that Edwards will be the heir-apparent, and win or lose, HC's next chance comes in 2016 - When she'll be 70 years old... Is she really a viable candidate at 70?
BastardSword
13-09-2004, 20:55
With so many Democrats and pundits talking about Hillary wanting to run for president - If Kerry wins, does that pretty much eliminate any chance of this ever happening?

If Kerry wins, optomisticly, you can assume he'll run for 2 terms and has at least a 50/50 chance of winning. That's 8 years. In 2012, you have to expect that Edwards will be the heir-apparent, and win or lose, HC's next chance comes in 2016 - When she'll be 70 years old... Is she really a viable candidate at 70?
Why would Edwards run in 2012? Hillary wil run then.
Maybe it will be like the current run with Dean, Kerry, Edwards, etc.
Both run till one gains enough support.
So no worries Conservatives your day of "doom" is coming, Hillary will run for president.

By the way in 2040 Bobby from that new show "Jack and Bobby" will run and win.
TheOneRule
13-09-2004, 20:58
Perhaps Hillary at 70 wouldnt be a bad idea... that will give her time to wise up and learn the error of her ways.
;)
Ashmoria
13-09-2004, 21:03
With so many Democrats and pundits talking about Hillary wanting to run for president - If Kerry wins, does that pretty much eliminate any chance of this ever happening?

If Kerry wins, optomisticly, you can assume he'll run for 2 terms and has at least a 50/50 chance of winning. That's 8 years. In 2012, you have to expect that Edwards will be the heir-apparent, and win or lose, HC's next chance comes in 2016 - When she'll be 70 years old... Is she really a viable candidate at 70?
timing is everything when it comes to running for president

you nailed it

her only real chance is for kerry to lose NOW or to not get reelected.

of course edwards will run in 2012 if he has been vp for 8 years. not only THAT but the way the party machinery works, he WILL be the nominee. (this is the biggest reason why mondale was the nominee in '84, bush in '88 and gore in '00)


70 is pretty much too old. and she may be sick of the whole thing by then anyway, most potential candidates are.

this same calculation goes for every other democrat who is near her age. (including governor bill richardson of new mexico) one wonders how hard it is to put that ambition aside in order to get the partys nominee in the white house.
BastardSword
13-09-2004, 21:07
timing is everything when it comes to running for president

you nailed it

her only real chance is for kerry to lose NOW or to not get reelected.

of course edwards will run in 2012 if he has been vp for 8 years. not only THAT but the way the party machinery works, he WILL be the nominee. (this is the biggest reason why mondale was the nominee in '84, bush in '88 and gore in '00)


70 is pretty much too old. and she may be sick of the whole thing by then anyway, most potential candidates are.

this same calculation goes for every other democrat who is near her age. (including governor bill richardson of new mexico) one wonders how hard it is to put that ambition aside in order to get the partys nominee in the white house.

Gore shouldn't have run but he thought why not.

Why would Edwards? Give me a reason...
Ashmoria
13-09-2004, 21:11
Gore shouldn't have run but he thought why not.

Why would Edwards? Give me a reason...

because after less than one full term as senator he ran for president?
he is an ambitious man.
true he could have a change of heart but not many men have had such a change of heart in his projected position

really this is the reason why (besides how much it would please ME) george bush shoudl have dumped cheney. the vp job gives a guy a leg up on becoming president, he should have brought in his favorite guy to replace him in '09
Keruvalia
13-09-2004, 21:23
With so many Democrats and pundits talking about Hillary wanting to run for president - If Kerry wins, does that pretty much eliminate any chance of this ever happening?


Hillary has openly said on many occasions that she has no designs on a White House bid. I think her lack of desire to run for President is what eliminates the chance of her doing it.

Hillary will not run for President at any time in the near future.
Sdaeriji
13-09-2004, 21:25
because after less than one full term as senator he ran for president?
he is an ambitious man.
true he could have a change of heart but not many men have had such a change of heart in his projected position

really this is the reason why (besides how much it would please ME) george bush shoudl have dumped cheney. the vp job gives a guy a leg up on becoming president, he should have brought in his favorite guy to replace him in '09

I might vote for Bush if he lost Cheney and Rumsfeld. Those guys scare me.
The Black Forrest
13-09-2004, 21:26
I think it would be funny if Hillery won.

Just think what the Repubs and the Conservatives will do knowing that Bill is in the White House again. ;)
Keruvalia
13-09-2004, 21:30
I think it would be funny if Hillery won.

Just think what the Repubs and the Conservatives will do knowing that Bill is in the White House again. ;)

It makes me smile a little to think of Bill as the "First Gentleman". Suppose Hillary will have a thing for interns? :D I bet she'd get a "You go, girl!" and a high-five.
Keruvalia
13-09-2004, 21:32
Is she really a viable candidate at 70?

Ronald Reagan turned 70 a mere 17 days after taking office. It worked for him, why not Hillary?
Ashmoria
13-09-2004, 21:46
I think it would be funny if Hillery won.

Just think what the Repubs and the Conservatives will do knowing that Bill is in the White House again. ;)
it would KILL the repubs
it woudl be worse than when truman won in '48

they would go nutz imagining all the sex bill would be having in the white house since he would have plenty of spare time to devote to the interns.
Trakken
14-09-2004, 02:59
it would KILL the repubs
it woudl be worse than when truman won in '48

they would go nutz imagining all the sex bill would be having in the white house since he would have plenty of spare time to devote to the interns.

I think you are right, it would hurt more than W being president hurts the Dems... But I think that may well be another impediment to her ever winning. There is so much of the country irrevocably polarized against her (far worse than Bush, IMHO), that she'd damn well need 100% of what's left to win... And if the GOP can put up even a half-decent candidate - something it's looking more and more like the Dems failed to do this year - that won't happen.

But I have another prediction... Barring a succession scenario, the first minority or woman candidate elected president will come on a Republican ticket. The Dems already claim those groups as their powerbase... So I think the first candiate who will win will be the one who can run on their traditional party-line support, plus grab those votes from the other side. Just a prediction - Someday we'll see.
Antileftism
14-09-2004, 03:12
man, would the right go up in flames...and a lot of moderates. her comments like the "we're going to take money away from you and use it for the common good" comments would kill her, especially considering we already need to revise America's social programs ASAP or be unable to afford them in about 10 years.....she is a VERY polarizing figure...i would work against her personally, i admit, free time given to keep her out of power. too socialistically extreme for me. and i am one of those moderates everybody talks about, but very anti socialistic (ie capitalist) so would oppose her vehemently.....and about 90% of people i know would, too....and i hang around a bunch of social liberals, lol....this country is going to hell in a handbasket, though, too, if repubs don;t start moving to the center again......these supply side economics/social conservatives are starting to get me very angry, too.....why can;t John McCain run on the reform ticket, dammit?
Incertonia
14-09-2004, 03:18
Ronald Reagan turned 70 a mere 17 days after taking office. It worked for him, why not Hillary?
That would certainly work against her, since many people would worry about a replay of the last years of Reagan, namely the potential of having an Alzheimers' president.

That said, 66 isn't too old for her to run, although I wonder if she will or not. She's certainly got the drive and the intelligence to do it, and by then, perhaps the wingnuts will have either found someone else to dump on or will be dead from their own syphilis-induced dementia. (Okay, so I'm a little over the line with the last bit--I have no proof their dementia is caused by syphilis.)