NationStates Jolt Archive

Some of you may remember that I posted a thread when the Time poll came out declaring that Bush was ahead by 11%. Well I was listening to Rush Limbaugh today and he reported that the Time and Newsweek polls had an overly large sampling of Republicans when they did the poll, therefore leading to a large Bush lead.
Now my thinking goes that if you want to produce a fake lead by a person you don't want to get elected, then make it seem that Kerry has fought back to even or just below Bush, that would be the way you do it. Now I'm not one for conspiracy theories, and this is really all it is, but it makes sense to me.

Some of you may remember that I posted a thread when the Time poll came out declaring that Bush was ahead by 11%. Well I was listening to Rush Limbaugh today and he reported that the Time and Newsweek polls had an overly large sampling of Republicans when they did the poll, therefore leading to a large Bush lead.
Now my thinking goes that if you want to produce a fake lead by a person you don't want to get elected, then make it seem that Kerry has fought back to even or just below Bush, that would be the way you do it. Now I'm not one for conspiracy theories, and this is really all it is, but it makes sense to me.

Nah...it was just bad polling.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup has Bush up by 7% - that's outside the margin of error and it's more realistic.

And that's still a good bump.

I'm more inclined to believe the internal Repulican sampling, there's show Bush ahead by 4%.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows him up by 7%, yes, but the previous pre-convention poll had him up by 5%, which means the bounce was only 2%, not 7% as you seemed to be implying. That said, national polls mean very little, and national polls that still, for whatever reason, include Nader mean absolutely nothing. http://www.electoral-vote.com/ <--- the electoral college is what counts. Incedently, at this far past the Democratic convention, Keryy was up with 302 or so EVs.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows him up by 7%, yes, but the previous pre-convention poll had him up by 5%, which means the bounce was only 2%, not 7% as you seemed to be implying. That said, national polls mean very little, and national polls that still, for whatever reason, include Nader mean absolutely nothing. http://www.electoral-vote.com/ <--- the electoral college is what counts. Incedently, at this far past the Democratic convention, Keryy was up with 302 or so EVs.

National Journal says differently. This is from their White House Scoreboard in the Hotline.

9/7
STATES EVs
Bush 28 269
Kerry 19 226
Tied 4 43

And I agree - national polls are useless and Nader needs to quit being added to the sample.

Gallup had a smaller bounce but it was consistent in the number of people that support Bush, 52%, over the Kerry region of the 3 polls, 43-45%.

Why kick Nader out of the choices, hes going to run and if you want to make it as realistic as possible then you need to include Nader in the sampling that is being done.

Why kick Nader out of the choices, hes going to run and if you want to make it as realistic as possible then you need to include Nader in the sampling that is being done.
Because Nader isn't on ballot on any state...I mean if you doin't have to be on the ballot then millions of people are eligible to run.
In fact Mickey Mouse gains .1% of the popular vote usually.

Because Nader isn't on ballot on any state...I mean if you doin't have to be on the ballot then millions of people are eligible to run.
In fact Mickey Mouse gains .1% of the popular vote usually.

Well, for all intents and purposes, this is true, but he's actually on the ballot in 8 states. Nevada, and all of the states the Reform party has qualified in, because he's their nominee (this includes Florida).

Nader qualified for the ballot in Ohio. He still might not actually end up on the ballot since Ken Blackwell has a history of simply refusing to acknowledge valid petitions that he doesn't like

The new Zogby International poll in the key states shows much less of a post-convention "Bush bounce" than the instant national polls. On the basis of these state-by-state surveys, Mr Kerry remains on course to capture the presidency. Tot up the electoral college votes based on the state-by-state polls, award Mr Bush all of the current dead-heat races, and Mr Kerry still takes the White House by 273-265.

from the guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/leaders/story/0,3604,1299219,00.html