NationStates Jolt Archive

According to this article from Time Magazine, Bush has an 11 point lead.

http://www.time.com/time/press_releases/article/0,8599,692562,00.html

I don't doubt it.

Both parties gain a lead in the polls during and immediately after their conventions. The same thing happened after the DNC.

And just as the Democrat's inflated numbers didn't last long after the convention, neither will Bush's.

They don't call it "bounce" for nothing.. and what happens to a ball that gets bounced? It comes down. So lets see how long or short lived the bounce will be, but I have seen 3 different polls today, the Time one being one of them, the other two still show them fairly even. I think we should know by after Labor Day if the GOP did in fact get a real bounce or not.

I don't doubt it.

Both parties gain a lead in the polls during and immediately after their conventions. The same thing happened after the DNC.



Except that this year, it didn't. The Dems got almost no bounce coming out of their convention....

Whether or not the numbers are inflated is irrelevent, I think. If you look at the other poll numbers that Time mentions you'll notice that compared to the past Bush has managed to change his ratings past to present from a negative position relative to Kerry to a positive one or from a small lead relative to Kerry to a greater one. That shows that Bush is gaining a lead against Kerry and if Kerry doesn't get his shit together soon, he's in trouble.

Except that this year, it didn't. The Dems got almost no bounce coming out of their convention....

There could be many reasons for that though. Most pundits seem to agree that the democrats were already very energized and united like never before. Lots of people in the republican party are unhappy with Bush, perhaps the convention made them feel it was okay to vote for him. None the less, convention bounces never last when you have a race this close and a country this divided.

There could be many reasons for that though. Most pundits seem to agree that the democrats were already very energized and united like never before. Lots of people in the republican party are unhappy with Bush, perhaps the convention made them feel it was okay to vote for him. None the less, convention bounces never last when you have a race this close and a country this divided.

Most pundits I've heard argue it's quite the opposite. Polls have shown Bush solidly getting 90+% approval among Republicans with Kerry only in the 80's with Democrats. And that was before this convention - Which is supposed to "energize" the base.

While I agree that Dems seem united in their dislike of Bush, they are far from united behind Kerry. That could cause some problems.

Except that this year, it didn't. The Dems got almost no bounce coming out of their convention....
4-5% of a bounce isn't 'no'.

RR still shows Bush at 49%, and how the hell did they get a poll out this quickly.

Bush will win and the Commu.... I mean Repunlicans will prevail!!!!!!!!!! :D

Is everybody forgetting Michael Dukakis and his 16% post-convention bounce?

And how much good it did him?