NationStates Jolt Archive

[Poll forthcoming, please be patient.]

I don't much believe in luck myself. I think it is simply random chance. While it may be true you have 50/50 odds of getting tails when flipping a coin, that doesn't mean you can't get 3 or 4 tails in a row, or 3 or 4 heads in a row. Likewise I think people sometimes attribute to lucky/unlucky streaks what are simply oddities of random chance.

To make matters more complicated, believing you have good or bad luck changes your perception of events. An optimist/lucky person may barely notice bad events because they focus on the good ones. A pessimist/unlucky person may focus on the bad events, and miss the good ones.

Anyhow. Your thoughts?

"Sooner or later you're going to realize that lady luck is really a whore - and you're fresh out of cash." -Spike.

The focusing on good/bad events thing is part of my reasoning behind luck's existence if you believe in it. A lot of the time, somebody who is "lucky" simply is the person that does the little things that are practical, and brings that "luck" upon himself.

Also, who's to say that oddities in randomness AREN'T luck? Maybe that's what luck is - a factor influencing randomness.

Also, who's to say that oddities in randomness AREN'T luck? Maybe that's what luck is - a factor influencing randomness.

It could be. Taking the example of flipping a coin again, there is nothing to say that just because the odds are 50/50 the side of the coin must alternate on every flip. It simply means that out of 100 flips, around 50 should be heads and 50 tails. So I don't see much reason to believe someone getting even 5 or 6 of one in a row is special.

[Poll forthcoming, please be patient.]

I don't much believe in luck myself. I think it is simply random chance. While it may be true you have 50/50 odds of getting tails when flipping a coin, that doesn't mean you can't get 3 or 4 tails in a row, or 3 or 4 heads in a row. Likewise I think people sometimes attribute to lucky/unlucky streaks what are simply oddities of random chance.

To make matters more complicated, believing you have good or bad luck changes your perception of events. An optimist/lucky person may barely notice bad events because they focus on the good ones. A pessimist/unlucky person may focus on the bad events, and miss the good ones.

Anyhow. Your thoughts?

Well, I see luck as a specific aspect of mythology or symbolism. A believer of luck sees patterns in the world around him when there very well could be pure randomness.

I will believe in luck until the day I die, but my reasons for thinking that way... are... unique. So choice three could very well be true as well.

It could be. Taking the example of flipping a coin again, there is nothing to say that just because the odds are 50/50 the side of the coin must alternate on every flip. It simply means that out of 100 flips, around 50 should be heads and 50 tails. So I don't see much reason to believe someone getting even 5 or 6 of one in a row is special.


Exactly. A coin flip, or ten flips, or even a hundred, is/are just one/ten/100 in an infinite, neverending series of coin flips ... so there's bound to be somebody getting ten in a row of the same side at some point.

Perhaps "luck" could be thought of as what you call something that seems to defy randomness - such as flipping 8 heads out of 10 flips.

Well I thought I was having a pretty lucky week (won a cellphone, quiet nights at work, small things going right all over the place it seemed)

I fucked my knee at hockey practice tonight heh.

How do you fuck your own knee?

Luck is random. That's why some people are lucky and some aren't. Why one day you're lucky, and the next you're not. I believe in the Randomness of the unverse so therefor I believe in Luck.

If you've ever seen a few of episodes of Red Dwarf,...

The viral strain Felicitus Populi, commonly known as "luck".
A positive virus which most humans contract at some point in their lives for very short periods.

Makes some kind of sense to me

So I don't see much reason to believe someone getting even 5 or 6 of one in a row is special.
1/32 chance or 1/64 chance, respectively. Go to any school assembly and make every kid flip a coin 6 times. In a school of about 1000 kids, around 15 to 20 will get 6 heads in a row.

Exactly. A coin flip, or ten flips, or even a hundred, is/are just one/ten/100 in an infinite, neverending series of coin flips ... so there's bound to be somebody getting ten in a row of the same side at some point.
If I were very well versed in probability, I'd be able to tell you the chance of getting at least one set of 10-in-a-row if you flip a coin N times.

I need to brush up on my probability.

Perhaps "luck" could be thought of as what you call something that seems to defy randomness - such as flipping 8 heads out of 10 flips.
10! / ( 8! * 2! * 2^10 ) = 45 / 2^10 = 45 / 1024 chance. Approximately 4.5%. In a class of 30 kids, maybe one or two will get this.

8! = "eight factorial" = 1*2*3*4*5*6*7*8

So, yeah, these things seem to defy randomness, but they're really part of the random distribution. I would probably define "lucky" or "unlucky" as merely falling within the one of the extremes of the distribution.

Someday (if it hasn't happened already), there's going to be some poor schmuck who trips over his own shoelaces, gets a concussion, tries to get up to go get help for himself, gets hit by a passing bike, is picked up by medics and an ambulance to be taken to the hospital (because said medics were summoned by the emotionally distraught bicyclist), gets in a car crash while said ambulance is the the way to said hospital, and then gets hit by lightning when he's pulled from the wreckage by the second set of medics-in-an-ambulance.

Someday, there will also be a woman to whom this happens, and on top of all of that, she'll be having her monthly period at the time, to boot.

--The Democratic States of Cogitation
"Think about it for a moment."
Founder and Delegate of The Realm of Ambrosia

With luck it's all chance.

It's all relative.

It's all relative.
Actually, position, time, and velocity are relative.

Probability is absolute, and the probability of any event can be described as a real number between (and including) 0 and 1.

--The Jovial States of Cogitation

...

I assert the above for the purposes of using "nitpicking" as a form of humor. Nevertheless, I believe the substance of my statements to be factually correct.

Actually, position, time, and velocity are relative.

Probability is absolute, and the probability of any event can be described as a real number between (and including) 0 and 1.

--The Jovial States of Cogitation

...

I assert the above for the purposes of using "nitpicking" as a form of humor. Nevertheless, I believe the substance of my statements to be factually correct.


Why spend your time thinking that up...

Why spend your time thinking that up...
'cause it only takes me a moment to think it up. :D

--The Jovial States of Cogitation

bump

'cause it only takes me a moment to think it up. :D

--The Jovial States of Cogitation


Ok then...

So, yeah, these things seem to defy randomness, but they're really part of the random distribution. I would probably define "lucky" or "unlucky" as merely falling within the one of the extremes of the distribution.

That's pretty much what I was trying to get at.

luck is a judgement of the past not a predictor of the future

"i am lucky" means that if i look at the past events, they came out more often in my favor than not. i could still get run over by a bus tomorrow and then be judged quite unlucky

[Poll forthcoming, please be patient.]

I don't much believe in luck myself. I think it is simply random chance. While it may be true you have 50/50 odds of getting tails when flipping a coin, that doesn't mean you can't get 3 or 4 tails in a row, or 3 or 4 heads in a row. Likewise I think people sometimes attribute to lucky/unlucky streaks what are simply oddities of random chance.

To make matters more complicated, believing you have good or bad luck changes your perception of events. An optimist/lucky person may barely notice bad events because they focus on the good ones. A pessimist/unlucky person may focus on the bad events, and miss the good ones.



Yeah...

We all know that...




(hopefully...)


I can't see why you made this post to begin with... who do you expect to argue with you?


Or was this a team attempt to illustrate Cogitation's understanding of basic statistical calculations...