NationStates Jolt Archive

I am not asking who do you think should win.

Let's leave out the usual Shrub and Lurch comments! ;)

I really can't get a feel to the victor. The polls are too close and neither seems to have an advantage.

I think Ohio will probably shed light as I think history shows that there was only a Republican President if he carried Ohio.

Some of our Political historians can correct me on that.....

So who do you think and why?

I am trying to get a feel from areas of the country.....

"As Missiouri goes so goes the nation"
"The solid South"
"No president as of 50 years has won without at least one southern state"
And on it goes.

I think Bush will fall to the same mistakes of his father. Unfortunately, Kerry is no Bill Clinton (can you believe Kerry's now for the war on Iraq? What kind of a Democrat is this guy?)

I hate the two party system.

I am not asking who do you think should win.

Let's leave out the usual Shrub and Lurch comments! ;)

I really can't get a feel to the victor. The polls are too close and neither seems to have an advantage.

I think Ohio will probably shed light as I think history shows that there was only a Republican President if he carried Ohio.

Some of our Political historians can correct me on that.....

So who do you think and why?

I am trying to get a feel from areas of the country.....

lol, just try and keep the lurch/shrub comments out. They creep in, in some of the most rediculous threads....

I beleive that this election will be even more evenly divided than the last one, along traditional "red state/blue state" lines.

My state, OR, will probably go for Kerry.

While technically under a republican governator, I think Cali over here will go Kerry. We ARE a traditionally democratic state.

YOU aren't asking who we think but you are asking us who is?
I'm not hoping to surprise you but many of us NationStaters can't read/see the future. Some can do it but they can't do it on command.
But if you want me to be sarcastic Nadar will somehow gain enough signatures to run and be voted by all the moderates, thus winning him the election, and spurning the Repub and Demo parties.
Then once he is in power he takes off his mask. Its Osama Bin Laden, he was disrupting our election all along. The Two parties split into 3 and have another election after kicking Osama back to Afganistan.(why we didn't kill him I don't know.
The three parties are Democratic, Republicans(the original reoublican party that Jefferson, etc were part of), and New Republicans.(the current ones true name if you read history books)
McCain runs for election in Republican party by a landslide and wins beating Bush's new republican, and Kerry's Democratic parties.

While technically under a republican governator, I think Cali over here will go Kerry. We ARE a traditionally democratic state.

agreed

While technically under a republican governator, I think Cali over here will go Kerry. We ARE a traditionally democratic state.

He fully didn't get support because he's a republican.

He got it because of how awesome it sounds having Arnie running the place.

My guess is that Kerry's novelty is wearing off and the nation is going to stick with Bush.

It could go either way, but Democrats are working awfully hard this year to get rid of Bush..

I am going to make my prediction without basing it on any actual research. I am going to say it will be Bush by a landslide. What will be funny is if I am right.

My guess is that Kerry's novelty is wearing off and the nation is going to stick with Bush.

Zell Miller didn't do Kerry any favors! LOL!! He slammed Kerry to the ground.

Bush for 4 More Years.

He fully didn't get support because he's a republican.

He got it because of how awesome it sounds having Arnie running the place.

Oh, most definatly. We're california. We've got hollywood. There was no chance for anything else :p

Zell Miller didn't do Kerry any favors! LOL!! He slammed Kerry to the ground.

Bush for 4 More Years.

Why are you amazed by this?

Zell has been a republican all along....

Right now, the national polls look tight, but according to a recent Zogby poll--can't remember where I saw it (I look at so many)--Kerry has a substantial lead in the battlefield states. It's something like 7-11 points depending on which states you're looking at.

I'm not concerned. All Bush has--and this convention is proof positive of it--is the hope that he can convince the nation that Kerry's a bigger scumbag than he is, and that's a tall order when things are going well. Things are decidedly not going well right now, whether we're talking about the economy, job growth, or the war in iraq.

Right now, the national polls look tight, but according to a recent Zogby poll--can't remember where I saw it (I look at so many)--Kerry has a substantial lead in the battlefield states. It's something like 7-11 points depending on which states you're looking at.

I'm not concerned. All Bush has--and this convention is proof positive of it--is the hope that he can convince the nation that Kerry's a bigger scumbag than he is, and that's a tall order when things are going well. Things are decidedly not going well right now, whether we're talking about the economy, job growth, or the war in iraq.
Not to mention Bush has recently said he can't win war on terror to his supporters that sounds like he is admitting defeat.

Right now, the national polls look tight, but according to a recent Zogby poll--can't remember where I saw it (I look at so many)--Kerry has a substantial lead in the battlefield states. It's something like 7-11 points depending on which states you're looking at.

I'm not concerned. All Bush has--and this convention is proof positive of it--is the hope that he can convince the nation that Kerry's a bigger scumbag than he is, and that's a tall order when things are going well. Things are decidedly not going well right now, whether we're talking about the economy, job growth, or the war in iraq.

Ohio, Bush has the lead
Florida, Bush is expanding his lead
Other states, Bush either leads or has closed the gap!

As for the second paragraph, FALSE OH BUDDY! Kerry's numbers slip day by day. He is doing a shakeup of his staff. As for the Convention, its a bit better than the Democratic National Convention though I was impressed with it anyway. Kerry is going down the tubes and this late in an election year, that isn't good. I talked to a democrat yesterday who is a supporter of Kerry but when I said his numbers are slipping, she grimaced.

It will be an interesting election but on November 2, 2004, I firmly believe that George Walker Bush will win re-election.

So who do you think and why?

I'll go out on a limb and make a bold prediction: whoever has the most electoral votes will win.... :p

If Kerry's numbers hadn't slipped some after the Swiftboat bullshit attacks, I'd be worried. It would mean that something's seriously wrong. I expect Bush will take a small lead this week--after all, it's his convention. Then it's on.

Two things to consider--or not, if you're a Bush supporter. One, Kerry's always been a strong closer and two, in close races, undecideds almost always overwhelmingly break for the challenger. Why? Because if they're undecided before they go into the booth, that's usually because they don't like the incumbent, and they're more willing to back a new face when it comes down to it. It happens regardless of party affiliation--in close races, the undecideds go for the challenger.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Electoral%20College%20Projection.htm

Eliminitating all toss up states,

Bush Leads 213-207!

If Kerry's numbers hadn't slipped some after the Swiftboat bullshit attacks, I'd be worried. It would mean that something's seriously wrong. I expect Bush will take a small lead this week--after all, it's his convention. Then it's on.

It'll be on after Labor Day. Not saying things won't be done before hand, they will but the election will go full swing after labor day. Bush will get a lead, this I have no doubt. The question is, how much. He quickly took out Kerry's bounce so he'll get another one after this election.

Two things to consider--or not, if you're a Bush supporter. One, Kerry's always been a strong closer and two, in close races, undecideds almost always overwhelmingly break for the challenger. Why? Because if they're undecided before they go into the booth, that's usually because they don't like the incumbent, and they're more willing to back a new face when it comes down to it. It happens regardless of party affiliation--in close races, the undecideds go for the challenger.

That is true but the undecideds here may not go for Kerry. It'll be interesting to see how they go this time. They may very well go for Bush but we'll never know. Tradition does say what your saying but Kerry isn't doing very well now and most people believe that you shouldn't change leaders in a middle of a war.

Which still leaves both of them far short of the 270 they need.

Leaving all partisanship out of this, the only way I see Bush winning is in a blowout. If it's close, the undecideds will flow Kerry's way and he'll win. They typically go to the challenger in a ratio of 2 to 1 or 3 to 1. Bush has to be far enough ahead on election day that that won't hurt him. Otherwise, he goes down.

Which still leaves both of them far short of the 270 they need.

Leaving all partisanship out of this, the only way I see Bush winning is in a blowout. If it's close, the undecideds will flow Kerry's way and he'll win. They typically go to the challenger in a ratio of 2 to 1 or 3 to 1. Bush has to be far enough ahead on election day that that won't hurt him. Otherwise, he goes down.

We are just going to have to wait and see. It'll be very interesting to see what happens. I'm still forcasting a Bush victory.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=854

Mix bag for Bush but it looks like the undecideds are leaning towards him.

We are just going to have to wait and see. It'll be very interesting to see what happens. I'm still forcasting a Bush victory.I agree. It's still too early, although it's getting closer now. By the end of this month, the polls will really start to matter. By the middle of October, if Bush doesn't have a significant lead (five points nationally), then I think he's dead in the water.

Who do I think will win and why?

I think Bush will win comfortably because ultimately, people will vote on national security.

John Kerry is a fraud and a conformist! He changes his sides based on the current popular trends, not on what is best for our country! I personally think he would run our wonderful country to crap if he is elected. We need someone like Bush who sticks with his values and morals! God Bless America and God Bless President George W. Bush!

Who do I think will win and why?

I think Bush will win comfortably because ultimately, people will vote on national security.

That's why I think he'll lose.

As was stated before, a lot of undecided voters usually vote for the new guy. Now, I dunno the exact poll on it, but last I checked it was pretty evenly split on support for Iraq. My guess is that a lot of undecided voters will think about it, see it as a mistake, and vote Kerry.


I'm going for a Kerry win myself :p

John Kerry is a fraud and a conformist! He changes his sides based on the current popular trends, not on what is best for our country! I personally think he would run our wonderful country to crap if he is elected. We need someone like Bush who sticks with his values and morals! God Bless America and God Bless President George W. Bush!

To steal from Chess: Go go gadget republican propaganda!

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=854

Mix bag for Bush but it looks like the undecideds are leaning towards him.

I see people don't read links anymore.

35-10 so far on the undecided voters. Thirt-five Percent leaning towards Bush, 10 percent leaning towards Kerry, the rest for the other candidates though 38 Percent are still undecided.

Bush will win because of his National Security Stance. Kerry has changed his position on this issue more than once and people know this.

I'm not saying that Bush will win re-election. I think he will but in politics, nothing is certian. Same goes for Kerry! I dont think he'll win but he just might.

It could go either way, but Democrats are working awfully hard this year to get rid of Bush..
**SIGH** Unfortunately - so far - Kerry isn't helping them.

If Kerry's numbers hadn't slipped some after the Swiftboat bullshit attacks, I'd be worried. It would mean that something's seriously wrong. I expect Bush will take a small lead this week--after all, it's his convention. Then it's on.

Two things to consider--or not, if you're a Bush supporter. One, Kerry's always been a strong closer and two, in close races, undecideds almost always overwhelmingly break for the challenger. Why? Because if they're undecided before they go into the booth, that's usually because they don't like the incumbent, and they're more willing to back a new face when it comes down to it. It happens regardless of party affiliation--in close races, the undecideds go for the challenger.
Decent logic. Hopefully true of the middle and working classes. However the perception that the Democrats are potentially far left wing loonies has to be overcome by Kerry enough to nudge this tenency or they will side with Bush from fear of the leftist agenda.

I will win whether you like it or not ...

*shifty eyes*