NationStates Jolt Archive

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1285277,00.html
Well, it seems like the world demography is in for a big change. Europe, particularly Eastern Europe, will see their populations decline. India will surpass China as the most populous nation on the planet. And most disturbing is sub-Sahara Africa, gaining an additional 1 billion people, doubling their population. What do you think?

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C'mon, anyone?

Isn't this pretty much as expected?

Isn't this pretty much as expected?
Sure. But I have never seen it on these forums. This would have grave impacts on the world of tommarow, economically, politically, etc.

Britain is expected to grow faster than any other major European country. Within 20 years, the authors expect it to have four million more people, at which point its growth is expected to tail off, adding only a further 1.5 million in the next 25 years to eventually reach 65 million. By then it will have overtaken France as Europe's second or third largest country
I wonder how they came to that conclusion. Seeing as france has a higher birthrate then Britain.

Sure. But I have never seen it on these forums. This would have grave impacts on the world of tommarow, economically, politically, etc.

How so, though? Population in fully developed countries was always expected to grow slower or, indeed, go down while population in less developed countries was expected to rise, either slowly or significantly. I'm not sure how this is such startling news or changes any of the present arguments concerning the dangers of overpopulation world-wide.

It might have an interesting impact on China-India relations, however, if India has more bodies to throw at China and decides it's time to start knocking heads.

Britain is expected to grow faster than any other major European country. Within 20 years, the authors expect it to have four million more people, at which point its growth is expected to tail off, adding only a further 1.5 million in the next 25 years to eventually reach 65 million. By then it will have overtaken France as Europe's second or third largest country
I wonder how they came to that conclusion. Seeing as france has a higher birthrate then Britain.

Starting population?

It might have an interesting impact on China-India relations, however, if India has more bodies to throw at China and decides it's time to start knocking heads.
I doubt India would turn on China anytime soon. Pakistan, sure, but why should they attack China?

Starting population?
France has already a few hundred thousand more inhabitants then Britain.

How so, though? Population in fully developed countries was always expected to grow slower or, indeed, go down while population in less developed countries was expected to rise, either slowly or significantly. I'm not sure how this is such startling news or changes any of the present arguments concerning the dangers of overpopulation world-wide.

It might have an interesting impact on China-India relations, however, if India has more bodies to throw at China and decides it's time to start knocking heads.
That's what I'm thinking. Also, the US will at least double in size. This will mean that the US remains one of the top industrialized nations, but I expect that immigration may put some social strains on American institutions. But hey, it'll be no different than the second wave of immigrants at the turn of the last century, which I am decended from, and chances are that you are, too.

Britain is expected to grow faster than any other major European country. Within 20 years, the authors expect it to have four million more people, at which point its growth is expected to tail off, adding only a further 1.5 million in the next 25 years to eventually reach 65 million. By then it will have overtaken France as Europe's second or third largest country
I wonder how they came to that conclusion. Seeing as france has a higher birthrate then Britain.
Immigration? Despite France's open borders, Britain has looser immigration regulations. Don't they regularly grant asylum to 10,000 refuggees a month? That's quite significant for such a tiny country.

Immigration? Despite France's open borders, Britain has looser immigration regulations. Don't they regularly grant asylum to 10,000 refuggees a month? That's quite significant for such a tiny country.
Hmm yeah. I guess thats it.
10,000 a month? :eek:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1285277,00.html
Well, it seems like the world demography is in for a big change. Europe, particularly Eastern Europe, will see their populations decline. India will surpass China as the most populous nation on the planet. And most disturbing is sub-Sahara Africa, gaining an additional 1 billion people, doubling their population. What do you think?

Its called 'Stage 5' on the Demographic scale. Germany is already entering it.

Its called 'Stage 5' on the Demographic scale. Germany is already entering it.
Stage 5? :confused:

Stage 5? :confused:

http://www.main-vision.com/richard/demographic.htm

http://www.main-vision.com/richard/demographic.htm
Ah right. Thanks. Spain and Italy have entered this stage 5 as well.

Ah right. Thanks. Spain and Italy have entered this stage 5 as well.
And for that matter, most of Eastern Europe.

I doubt India would turn on China anytime soon. Pakistan, sure, but why should they attack China?

I doubt it as well, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility, particularly if India does indeed eclipse China in population. China/India relations have never been friendly and if India's infrastructure does indeed see a boom because of the influx of global corporations looking for a low cost country, then it's not hard to imagine them looking at China as a nice summer home. Indeed, given the situation, they might be able to count on at least the tacit backing of several heavy hitters in removing the last semi-successful Communist government.

That's what I'm thinking. Also, the US will at least double in size. This will mean that the US remains one of the top industrialized nations, but I expect that immigration may put some social strains on American institutions. But hey, it'll be no different than the second wave of immigrants at the turn of the last century, which I am decended from, and chances are that you are, too.


Nope. :) My people came over around 1830 and have since plunged ourselves into a seemingly never ending cycle of financial gain and squandering on drink and gambling. I'm "lucky" enough to be part of the rebuilding phase, which means I don't have money, but I'm also not prone to alcoholism or gambling addiction. So, really, it's a mixed blessing.

Like I said, though, I don't seen India doing anything about China or China doing anything about India in the near future (meaning the next 50 years or so). However, should China's government start to show the same strains that the U.S.S.R. did before it's collapse, all bets are off.

Oh, as for the US and expanding immigration, if the views of posters on this board are any judge, I don't think we'll have to worry about anyone wanting to immigrate to the States for quite some time. :)

Nope. :) My people came over around 1830 and have since plunged ourselves into a seemingly never ending cycle of financial gain and squandering on drink and gambling. I'm "lucky" enough to be part of the rebuilding phase, which means I don't have money, but I'm also not prone to alcoholism or gambling addiction. So, really, it's a mixed blessing.
Oh. German, I guess?

Like I said, though, I don't seen India doing anything about China or China doing anything about India in the near future (meaning the next 50 years or so). However, should China's government start to show the same strains that the U.S.S.R. did before it's collapse, all bets are off.
China is currently growing even faster than it's financial structure can keep up, and it's demand for all sorts of commodities make world prices extremely volatile. It's overheating, and it may explode into a recession soon. If it gets bad enough, there's no telling what China may do. But I'm betting that it won't happen until at least next summer, when oil prices are traditionally higher.

Oh, as for the US and expanding immigration, if the views of posters on this board are any judge, I don't think we'll have to worry about anyone wanting to immigrate to the States for quite some time. :)
I don't worry myself. But if enough immigrate here in a short period of time, the US may not be able to catch up. Then again, I've heard all sorts of wacky scenarios. For example, the Mexicans will annex the Southwestern states with a large enough immigrant population. That should be unlikely, though.

Oh. German, I guess?


Irish, actually. The initial spur to our arrival on these shores had something to do with a distant male relative, his unfortunately far-too obvious attentions to a married woman, a hot-tempered husband who finally caught the two of them in the middle of said attentions and an incorrectly used pitch-fork. At least, this is what I'm told by relatives. Who knows how true it is. After all, we may be Irish, but at least we're not Mormans. (and if that comment doesn't turn this into a flame thread, then I just don't know what will.)


China is currently growing even faster than it's financial structure can keep up, and it's demand for all sorts of commodities make world prices extremely volatile. It's overheating, and it may explode into a recession soon. If it gets bad enough, there's no telling what China may do. But I'm betting that it won't happen until at least next summer, when oil prices are traditionally higher.


Again, though, I don't think that even this will happen as soon as next summer if it does at all. I think it far more likely (although still not in any way certain) that China will make a move towards Taiwan or possibly slap down North Korea to draw attention away from any internal economic pressures it might face.


I don't worry myself. But if enough immigrate here in a short period of time, the US may not be able to catch up. Then again, I've heard all sorts of wacky scenarios. For example, the Mexicans will annex the Southwestern states with a large enough immigrant population. That should be unlikely, though.

Very unlikely, particularly if Bush expands NAFTA the way he wants to. I mean, what would be the point?

Irish, actually. The initial spur to our arrival on these shores had something to do with a distant male relative, his unfortunately far-too obvious attentions to a married woman, a hot-tempered husband who finally caught the two of them in the middle of said attentions and an incorrectly used pitch-fork. At least, this is what I'm told by relatives. Who knows how true it is. After all, we may be Irish, but at least we're not Mormans. (and if that comment doesn't turn this into a flame thread, then I just don't know what will.)
What a rich history you have. My great-grandparents came from Sicily in the twenties, and my grandparents have no idea why they came:).


Again, though, I don't think that even this will happen as soon as next summer if it does at all. I think it far more likely (although still not in any way certain) that China will make a move towards Taiwan or possibly slap down North Korea to draw attention away from any internal economic pressures it might face.
Probably more likely, though I hope they don't invade Taiwan. That may lead to WWIII, and it'd be economic suicide for China.


Very unlikely, particularly if Bush expands NAFTA the way he wants to. I mean, what would be the point?
I'll take it one step further: NAFTA will evolve into a political organization, something like what the EU is today. A single currency for the continent is almost a given in my lifetime. Perhaps Canada, Mexico, or both, may choose to politically intergrate with the US. I actually think that it may have some advantages for us all in the future. But I bet that's also unlikely.

What a rich history you have. My great-grandparents came from Sicily in the twenties, and my grandparents have no idea why they came:).


Like I said, I'm counting on what relatives tell me, so it may all be romanticized...well, except for the gambling and alcohol bits. :)


Probably more likely, though I hope they don't invade Taiwan. That may lead to WWIII, and it'd be economic suicide for China.

Exactly why I don't think China will do it, at least not any time soon.


I'll take it one step further: NAFTA will evolve into a political organization, something like what the EU is today. A single currency for the continent is almost a given in my lifetime. Perhaps Canada, Mexico, or both, may choose to politically intergrate with the US. I actually think that it may have some advantages for us all in the future. But I bet that's also unlikely.

Well, it sort of has to happen, at least in part, if the EU gels as a true trading bloc. We'll need to form a competative bloc and that will have to include pretty much all of North America.

Exactly why I don't think China will do it, at least not any time soon.
Well, when it comes to security issues, I'm a Reagan relic. To assume that MAD is a proper detterance is immoral, as America can assume that war with one nuclear power means destroying both nations completely. I support a missile shield so that a.) the US can stop nuclear attacks, and b.) there's less of a reason for the US to use its nukes on China. It'd still ravage China, but it might not carry such unacceptable casualties in either country.


Well, it sort of has to happen, at least in part, if the EU gels as a true trading bloc. We'll need to form a competative bloc and that will have to include pretty much all of North America.
The EU is also becoming a political bloc. North America would be wise to intergrate into one supercountry. In fact, I feel that if the two adopted the US constitution, as opposed to having us adopt Canada's or Mexico's, they'd be better off. States have a fair degree of rights, and both Canada and Mexico will be heavily represented in Congress, and in the electoral process. It'd be better for them to vote for a presedent through the electoral college than the popular vote, as the college allows for the two nations to retain some sort of identity. The US can really be a loose federation of states, if you think about it.

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Vanity, thy name is Purly Euclid. :)

Vanity, thy name is Purly Euclid. :)
Yes, that I am.

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,3604,1285277,00.html
Well, it seems like the world demography is in for a big change. Europe, particularly Eastern Europe, will see their populations decline. India will surpass China as the most populous nation on the planet. And most disturbing is sub-Sahara Africa, gaining an additional 1 billion people, doubling their population. What do you think?
Oh the times, they are a'changin!

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040818-105443-7992r.htm
This article shows how much larger India will get than China, in terms of population. And since India is a smaller country geographically, imagine the population density there.

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there is plenty of room things may get more crowded but there is room. Also a solution to third world issues exists, genetic foods and free trade etc. I am sure you have heard this and I am one of those who believes it can work giving people jobs, building economies and improving the world economy and thus the world !

http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040818-105443-7992r.htm
This article shows how much larger India will get than China, in terms of population. And since India is a smaller country geographically, imagine the population density there.
Can't be much worse then in the Netherlands.

there is plenty of room things may get more crowded but there is room. Also a solution to third world issues exists, genetic foods and free trade etc. I am sure you have heard this and I am one of those who believes it can work giving people jobs, building economies and improving the world economy and thus the world !
So do I. What I fear, however, is that the world is growing too fast to embrace these changes. Plus, as the world gets wealthier, more reliance on oil will be needed by third world countries. Today, the US uses 25% of the world's oil. Imagine if just the average Indian used as much oil as Americans do. It's likely that they'll prosper in the future, as I think oil is on its way out (natural gas should replace it as a primary fuel source by 2025), leaving room for third world nations to use it. Until then, and even after, it's likely that the stuff will be really expensive. Even natural gas will be expensive if they use it, as it is a fossil fuel, and thus finite. The result, of course, should be inflation.

So do I. What I fear, however, is that the world is growing too fast to embrace these changes. Plus, as the world gets wealthier, more reliance on oil will be needed by third world countries. Today, the US uses 25% of the world's oil. Imagine if just the average Indian used as much oil as Americans do. It's likely that they'll prosper in the future, as I think oil is on its way out (natural gas should replace it as a primary fuel source by 2025), leaving room for third world nations to use it. Until then, and even after, it's likely that the stuff will be really expensive. Even natural gas will be expensive if they use it, as it is a fossil fuel, and thus finite. The result, of course, should be inflation.
Luckily the brains, and even big cooperations, are considering hydrogen as a replacement for fossile fuels.

I don't really care what the human population's impact on humans is. Or the environment for that matter, but I think that's a bigger issue. Seriously, we're all going to die eventually anyway, but the more people there are, the less ashtetically pleasing the world will be...lots of resources are being wasted and more will be...but when has the earth ever NOT recovered? When we've all procreated our race into a shallow grave, things will get better for the rest of the world. Extinctions happen...we're accelerating that, but something new will always come around. It's just the way that the earth works. In the short term, i don't care what this means...in the long term, I just hope we're all gone.

Luckily the brains, and even big cooperations, are considering hydrogen as a replacement for fossile fuels.
Oh they are, and I've heard that fuel cell batteries for appliances may get into the market by the end of this year. It'll be worth $100 billion by 2010. However, a natural gas economy will be needed to help transisition.

Oh they are, and I've heard that fuel cell batteries for appliances may get into the market by the end of this year. It'll be worth $100 billion by 2010. However, a natural gas economy will be needed to help transisition.
I don't see why. Once they have figured out to use this technology in an economic way. By economic I mean payable for the general population.

I don't see why. Once they have figured out to use this technology in an economic way. By economic I mean payable for the general population.
The only economic way so far is through natural gas. Not even wind or solar made hydrogen is as cheap yet. Our best bet is to figure out how to shrink fuel cells, but make them just as potent. The current size makes it fine for powering small electronics (which models are already in the works), but what about energy intensive cars? Or buses?
Still, it holds promise. Despite having less weight, a hydrogen atom releases more energy than a carbon atom. In fact, assuming the US fleet was all powered by hydrogen fuel cells today, it's electrical generating capacity is 17 times that of the current US electrical production, the largest in the world. Imagine a world of no power plants.

Imagine a world of no power plants.
Not to mention with almost no polution.

Not to mention with almost no polution.
Right. But even if an economic solution is found tommarow, all of our cars, appliances, and electrical generating capacity won't change overnight. We're running on a fossil fuel economy that should take at least a couple of decades to refit. Not only that, but the grid will have to be refitted to carry such an extra load. I'm sure there's a lot of money in it, though. Hey, even oil companies support the idea, if only they pay it lip service right now.

I am worried more about Africa. The rapidly-expanding Sahel cannot support 1 billion humans. It can barely support those there now. Africa will continue to be plagued by instability if this happens. It is a bomb...in the process of exploding.

I am worried more about Africa. The rapidly-expanding Sahel cannot support 1 billion humans. It can barely support those there now. Africa will continue to be plagued by instability if this happens. It is a bomb...in the process of exploding.
It seems like that if 1.5 billion people live down there, they'll have an extremely hard time living together. It should mean far more wars, starvation, thirst, and probably plague. In fact, come 2050, I wouldn't be surprised if those in sub-Sahara Africa start dying in very large numbers.

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No more thoughs on this?

Oh, to hell with it, let's bump again.

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