NationStates Jolt Archive


Rivalry still exists between Moscow and the West

Drabikstan
17-08-2004, 17:39
Moscow matters in former Soviet Union

Kremlin exerts influence over republics to keep West at bay

By MARK MacKINNON

MOSCOW -- Lyudmila Grigorievna was just thinking about doing the laundry when the lights went out in her tiny village in southern Moldova last week.

The power outage in Cosnita was only a minor inconvenience at first. The 21-year-old student, who asked that her family name not be used, had to do her washing by hand. She didn't worry too much about it, since the electricity has a habit of cutting out from time to time.

The next morning though, the lights were still out, and life in Cosnita had ground to a halt. The sweet popcorn factory that employs many residents was shut down, meaning no work and no pay for much of the town that day.

Power had been cut not only to Cosnita, but to 120,000 residents across the tiny former Soviet republic. It was an attention-grabbing move by the pro-Russian junta that controls the breakaway enclave of Transdniestr in the east of the country to reinforce its point in a tit-for-tat battle over the use of the Cyrillic alphabet in schools. The lights stayed off for five days before a Spanish firm connected Cosnita to a different electricity grid.

As power was being restored in Cosnita, another pro-Russian mini-state was kicking up a fuss in Georgia, another corner of what was once the Soviet Union. Throughout Monday and Tuesday night of last week, rebel soldiers in South Ossetia engaged in a fierce artillery duel with federal troops that left three Georgian peacekeepers dead and dozens of civilians injured.

In Georgia, as in Moldova, the net effect was to remind the central governments in Tbilisi and Kishinev that, although the Soviet Union fell 13 years ago, they still have to worry about what Moscow thinks.

Many observers say Lyudmila and her family were pawns, not simply in a struggle between separatists in Transdniestr and Moldova's central government, but in a grander Cold-War-style game between Russia and the West that is taking place across the former Soviet Union as Russian President Vladimir Putin pursues a more assertive strategy in what he calls the country's "near abroad."

As a group, the former Soviet republics loosely grouped into the Commonwealth of Independent States are poor, unstable and not particularly desirable allies. But with the expansion of the European Union and North Atlantic Treaty Organization and no serious suggestion that Russia could join either any time soon, they're all the Kremlin has left, and are being jealously guarded.

"Russia's last line of defence is the CIS," said Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the Moscow-based USA-Canada Institute. He said it also plays well at home when Russia acts the part of big dog around its former empire. "There's a surge of nationalism in the country, a nationalism that rides very close to imperialism. It gives people pride to hear that we're rebuilding something like the Soviet Union."

After the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the United States, Mr. Putin was the first leader to call U.S. President George W. Bush and offer support. Shortly thereafter, U.S. military bases were established in places once thought forever inaccessible to U.S. troops -- former Soviet republics such as Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia.

The "war on terror," for the moment, had superseded old suspicions and rivalries. There was unprecedented goodwill between the Kremlin and the White House.

That situation is no more. Irritated by the continuing presence of the Central Asian bases two years after the serious fighting in Afghanistan is done and rattled by what many Russians view as a U.S.-sponsored revolution in Georgia last year, Moscow's foreign policy has taken a harsher edge that often clashes with U.S. interests in the region.

The next struggle is already taking shape around the looming presidential election in Ukraine, a country that is seen as being of unmatched strategic importance to Russia, but one tempted by the idea that it could one day join the EU and NATO.

With Western-leaning Viktor Yushchenko leading in polls and receiving substantial U.S. support, several political operatives with Kremlin ties have been dispatched to Kiev to promote the chances of the main pro-Russia candidate, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich. The vote is Oct. 31.

"Of course, the Kremlin is working to support Yanukovich," said Vyacheslav Nikonov, director of the Fond Politika think tank and an adviser to Mr. Putin's United Russia party. "It's in Russia's interest not to have anti-Russian presidents in neighbouring countries."

Ukraine is just the most important of many battles for influence being waged across the former Soviet Union. Late last year, Russia built an air base in Kyrgyzstan, just 50 kilometres from the U.S. base. Since the accession of the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to NATO this year, there has been expulsions of "spies" by both sides.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to ignore international calls to withdraw its "peacekeepers" from Georgia and Moldova.

"Putin perceives that Russian weakness in the post-Soviet space will result in others trying to fill that vacuum," a Moscow-based Western diplomat said. "Russia and the U.S. keep saying that everyone's getting along, but underlying that is a real rivalry."

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040817/RUSSIA17/TPInternational/Asia


Opinions?
Purly Euclid
17-08-2004, 19:55
I don't think Russia can sustain its campaign of quasi-imperialism much longer. For one, the Russian Army is nothing like it was twenty years ago. For another, the West has too many interests in the former Soviet Republics. The Baltic states have been the first to fully defect, being members of the EU. Of course, they still rely on Russia for electricity, but should the Russians act against them, they'll anger Brussels.
As for Central Asia, this is round 2 of the Great Game, with the US taking the role of Great Britain. The US has a military foothold in the area, and that has really pissed the Russians off. However, I see that the Russians can do little about US presence in Krygystan, or Turkmenistan. But as it is so far away from Afghanistan, they can have Kazakstan wrapped around their finger, and not worry about the US showing up and spoiling the fun, yet.
I'd also like to add that the Russians have a strategic interest in supporting the Iranian government, and maybe the Iraqis under Saddam Hussein. Because of those regimes, Russia is currently the only way to get the vast oil and gas reserves of Central Asia from East to their markets in the West, thus making Central Asia economically dependent on them. Should the Iranian crisis somehow lead to a US invasion, a pipeline route outside of Russia's influence opens. The Russians are trying to control their former republics in any way they can, if only to keep Russia on the world stage. If such is the case, then I'm afraid that Russia can't do it in the long run. The structure of the world today works against their favor.
Drabikstan
17-08-2004, 20:03
I don't think Russia can sustain its campaign of quasi-imperialism much longer. For one, the Russian Army is nothing like it was twenty years ago. For another, the West has too many interests in the former Soviet Republics. I disagree.

Russia has massive economic influence over the other former Soviet republics. Most of them depend on Russia for trade and utilities such as oil, gas and electricity. Russia has sustained this quasi-imperialism for 13 years since the end of USSR and it is only going to grow with Russia's economy improving.

What interests does the West have in places like Armenia, Belarus or Moldova?
Purly Euclid
17-08-2004, 20:14
I disagree.

Russia has massive economic influence over the other former Soviet republics. Most of them depend on Russia for trade and utilities such as oil, gas and electricity. Russia has sustained this quasi-imperialism for 13 years since the end of USSR and it is only going to grow with Russia's economy improving.

What interests does the West have in places like Armenia, Belarus or Moldova?
Don't know about those three, but the rest have lots of Western interests. The Baltic states look as if they are outside of Russia's sphere of influence for a long time to come. Central Asia is, of course, tricky. But as I said, the Caucasus may end up being an important transit point that doesn't use Russian territory. For the former Soviet republics of Eastern Europe, however, I don't see any reason why the West could want Russia out.
I also think that the Russian army is beginning to stretch itself thin. They have a war in Chechnya, and they need security forces in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Twenty years ago, this would've been no sweat for them, but the Russian military has been on a starvation diet. This may be too much for them to take on at once.