NationStates Jolt Archive

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=5989671
As this article shows, the opposition to Chavez is certainly a diverse and roudy bunch. I wonder if this means that they'll try to pull off another strike in the oil industry, or a coup. This may even turn into civil war. Do you think it's likely?

I doubt they'll go as far as to a Civil War....

I think it might head to civil war, too.

Civil war, definatly.

bump

I wish I were Superman.

I wish I were Superman.
Okay, I just said that to get your attention.

It's already been tried once, and probably would have succeeded if there hadn't happened to be a film crew around doing a documentary at the time--there's information about it online. I don't remember the site name, but the film was later released, titled "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised."

It should be noted that part of the reason Chavez so dislikes the Bush administration is because he'd been toppled all of about 2 hours and the Bush administration had already recognized the new government. He believes the US was, if not responsible, at least quietly encouraging it, and I don't blame him.

That said--I'm impressed by the nearly 80% turnout and the fact that the Carter Center is reporting that Chavez defeated the recall handily--that it wasn't even close. Let's hope it holds.

It's already been tried once, and probably would have succeeded if there hadn't happened to be a film crew around doing a documentary at the time--there's information about it online. I don't remember the site name, but the film was later released, titled "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised."

It should be noted that part of the reason Chavez so dislikes the Bush administration is because he'd been toppled all of about 2 hours and the Bush administration had already recognized the new government. He believes the US was, if not responsible, at least quietly encouraging it, and I don't blame him.

That said--I'm impressed by the nearly 80% turnout and the fact that the Carter Center is reporting that Chavez defeated the recall handily--that it wasn't even close. Let's hope it holds.
They could try it again. The opposition may be small, but they are fanatical, and include some of the nation's most influential people, including most of the oil workers. I guess Chavez may try to find scabs if they strike, though.

Oh I have no doubt they'll try it again--there's too much money at stake for them not to. But Chavez has really helped himself by taking advantage of the spike in oil prices to fund all his social programs, and the people at the bottom of the economy, who might as well have been serfs up till now, are willing to die for him. I think you're right--we haven't seen the end of this by a longshot, and I'll go one farther. Chavez will not die a peaceful death. He may survive until the end of his term, and maybe beyond for a bit, but he won't die in his sleep. He's made too many rich and powerful enemies.

Oh I have no doubt they'll try it again--there's too much money at stake for them not to. But Chavez has really helped himself by taking advantage of the spike in oil prices to fund all his social programs, and the people at the bottom of the economy, who might as well have been serfs up till now, are willing to die for him. I think you're right--we haven't seen the end of this by a longshot, and I'll go one farther. Chavez will not die a peaceful death. He may survive until the end of his term, and maybe beyond for a bit, but he won't die in his sleep. He's made too many rich and powerful enemies.
That's why I fear civil war. Both sides are fanatics.

i suspect that he will be assassinated. quite probably by the cia. we've played this game before.

i suspect that he will be assassinated. quite probably by the cia. we've played this game before.
Doubt it. It'd leave too much of a vacuum. I feel that ever since Chavez got into office, he's created the trappings of an Arab petrostate, and to make the long story short, a Latin American al-Qaeda could emerge. I think assasination would destabilize the country, and threaten the entire region. What may end up happening, I feel, is military intervention by the US a decade or so from now.

That's why I fear civil war. Both sides are fanatics.That's just it--I don't think Chavez or his followers are fanatics. They're people who believe that the natural resources of a country should be used to benefit the majority of the citizens, instead of just the privileged class. I agree.

That's just it--I don't think Chavez or his followers are fanatics. They're people who believe that the natural resources of a country should be used to benefit the majority of the citizens, instead of just the privileged class. I agree.
Too bad they don't know how to go about doing it.

Too bad they don't know how to go about doing it.
Who doesn't know? Chavez? He's done a pretty good job thus far, at least in the eyes of the majority of the people of Venezuela.

Who doesn't know? Chavez? He's done a pretty good job thus far, at least in the eyes of the majority of the people of Venezuela.
Of course. If you have someone squandering petrodollars that could be used to actually build for the future on handouts - handouts that are given to you, the impovershed class that Chavez has helped to expand - then you're going to like him, because you're increasingly dependent upon him.

You call it squandering--I call it building the infrastructure so a healthy mddle class can emerge. There was no middle class under the previous regimes--talk about squandering the wealth of the country. It went to energy companies and the Venezuelans who were already rich. Chavez is giving back to the people who have been shat on for decades, and I congratulate him for it.

Not only is Chavez screwing the rich, he's screwing everyone. Incomes are falling, GDP is shrinking, public debt is expanding, inflation is up (30% this year alone), unemployment up and labor costs down. Just about everything that could go wrong with the economy during this administration has. Of course there's going to be the answer that this was due to the strikes, which he admits he provoked

Crisis in Chinese means danger and opportunity. Sometimes the crisis has to be generated, and kept measured, of course. What we did in PDVSA was necessary...and we generated the crisis. When I blew the referee's whistle in 'Alo Presidente' and started to fire people, I was provoking the crisis. When I named Gaston Parra President of PDVSA and the new board, we were provoking the crisis. They responded and the conflict appeared. And this is where we are today. in his "Accountability Speech".

Substantive change always causes some short term pain. I happen to think that in the long run, the change will be for the good. After all, if you're at the bottom in Venezuela, there's not much farther down to go.

But regardless, the people there have spoken, and if we're going to give more than lip service to the idea of democracy around the world, then we ought to give Chavez our support and help instead of trying to undermine him in favor of our big oil friends.

Doubt it. It'd leave too much of a vacuum. I feel that ever since Chavez got into office, he's created the trappings of an Arab petrostate, and to make the long story short, a Latin American al-Qaeda could emerge. I think assasination would destabilize the country, and threaten the entire region. What may end up happening, I feel, is military intervention by the US a decade or so from now.

not if we already had somebody lined up to fill it. and i don't think the threat of instability matters much anymore

The oligarchs have crippled the Venezuelan economy in an attempt to overthrow Chavez. However, the rich elite's attempt to destroy a democratic revolution has failed.

Of course. If you have someone squandering petrodollars that could be used to actually build for the future on handouts - handouts that are given to you, the impovershed class that Chavez has helped to expand - then you're going to like him, because you're increasingly dependent upon him.So you're arguing that the majority of a countries population don't know what's best for that country? Do you support the coup attempt?

Link Time
The refendun
http://www.rte.ie/news/2004/0816/venezuela.html

CHAVEZ: INSIDE THE COUP
http://www.deckert-distribution.com...deckert_176.htm

More stuff on venezeula
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2790605.stm

Link Time
The refendun
http://www.rte.ie/news/2004/0816/venezuela.htmlThe US ultra right goverment questions the validity of the vote with no evidence. They would say that, wouldn't they. (And surely Bush is in no position to be questioning anyone else's popular mandate)

CHAVEZ: INSIDE THE COUP
http://www.deckert-distribution.com...deckert_176.htmNot working. :(

More stuff on venezeula
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/2790605.stmI can believe that- however it doesen't alter the fact that Chavez has the support of the majority of his population. Any one ignoring that is against democracy.

The US ultra right goverment questions the validity of the vote with no evidence. They would say that, wouldn't they. (And surely Bush is in no position to be questioning anyone else's popular mandate)

LOL it used to say EC supports chavez vote


Not working. :(
this should work http://www.deckert-distribution.com/films/deckert_176.htm

I can believe that- however it doesen't alter the fact that Chavez has the support of the majority of his population. Any one ignoring that is against democracy.
I agree

not if we already had somebody lined up to fill it. and i don't think the threat of instability matters much anymore
And I'm sure a hundred thousand armed militiamen will greet the successor with bullets. Even if he gets in, it'll be unlikely he can control much, and the country would undoubtedly slip into civil war.

I agree that it will take violence funded by the rich to get rid of Chavez.

The question is, if there is another coup, what course of action with other countries take, like neighbouring countries, the US, EU etc

I don`t think that the opposition is able after this defeat to launch a successful coup any time soon.
However in the medium term Venezuela is going to be in big trouble. The policy of the government is not sustainable. The victory of it was inshured by increased government spending. That was possible due to the high oil price. But if the oil price drops the structural problems of Venzuelas economy are going to become clear again. And that it is very likely that fighting brakes out again.

I don`t think that the opposition is able after this defeat to launch a successful coup any time soon.
However in the medium term Venezuela is going to be in big trouble. The policy of the government is not sustainable. The victory of it was inshured by increased government spending. That was possible due to the high oil price. But if the oil price drops the structural problems of Venzuelas economy are going to become clear again. And that it is very likely that fighting brakes out again.

Not necessarily as Chavez has or is attempting to secure a larger portion of the profits from the oil. From 16% to 30%.

Not necessarily as Chavez has or is attempting to secure a larger portion of the profits from the oil. From 16% to 30%.
Back up your claims!!!
It is a fact that only this year the Venezuelan government has increased spending almost 50% to secure its reelection. That is not sustainable.
And if the oil price drops this buble is going to burst and Chavez is going to be in big shit. Fighting would return than - since he would not voluntarily leave power.

And if the oil price drops this buble is going to burst and Chavez is going to be in big shit. Fighting would return than - since he would not voluntarily leave power.
And why should he? He was democratically elected to govern untill 2006.

Back up your claims!!!
It is a fact that only this year the Venezuelan government has increased spending almost 50% to secure its reelection. That is not sustainable.
And if the oil price drops this buble is going to burst and Chavez is going to be in big shit. Fighting would return than - since he would not voluntarily leave power.


http://forums2.jolt.co.uk/showpost.php?p=6798122&postcount=62

from

http://www.gregpalast.com

http://www.gregpalast.com/images/Chavez-5H.jpg

And why should he? He was democratically elected to govern untill 2006.
I doubt that he leaves in 2006. He is going to hold power like Mugabe in Zimbawe. He is acting like a mad man, especially with his economic policy. He has alionated the middle class and the upper class of the country. So he has divided the country. He makes a completly irresponsible policy, arming Bolivarian cycles (outside of the state infrastructure) in order to create his private army. Those groups are designed to keep him in power and to oppress every opposition. He follows the communists in Kuba. He is a desaster for his country. He is dividing it and the groups he alionated are not going to accept it. With his policy a conflict is inevitable.

I doubt that he leaves in 2006. He is going to hold power like Mugabe in Zimbawe. He is acting like a mad man, especially with his economic policy. He has alionated the middle class and the upper class of the country. So he has divided the country. He makes a completly irresponsible policy, arming Bolivarian cycles (outside of the state infrastructure) in order to create his private army. Those groups are designed to keep him in power and to oppress every opposition. He follows the communists in Kuba. He is a desaster for his country. He is dividing it and the groups he alionated are not going to accept it. With his policy a conflict is inevitable.

Back up your claims!!!

.

I doubt that he leaves in 2006. He is going to hold power like Mugabe in Zimbawe. He is acting like a mad man, especially with his economic policy. He has alionated the middle class and the upper class of the country. So he has divided the country. He makes a completly irresponsible policy, arming Bolivarian cycles (outside of the state infrastructure) in order to create his private army. Those groups are designed to keep him in power and to oppress every opposition. He follows the communists in Kuba. He is a desaster for his country. He is dividing it and the groups he alionated are not going to accept it. With his policy a conflict is inevitable.
Those who oppose him are the upper class who was making huge money under the previous government. Now they lost land they were not using and the government tells them that they not be making so much money on the back of Venezuela. Of course they will be upset! They're not making so much money. And, for the record they are to blame for the economic problems too: they organised strikes and made every attempt to kill the economy to show how Chavez was a bad administrator.

Whether you like it or not socialism is working in some countries, like here in Canada. Calling him a communist is uncalled for and a stretch of the truth.

, for the record they are to blame for the economic problems too:
Chavez provoked them deliberately. He used it as an excuse to take control of the oil industry, too.

Chavez is packing the Supreme Court with his allies. He expanded it by 12 members, I think, so if it came time in 2006, the Chavista camp wouldn't be in unfavorable conditions to stay in power.

Whether you like it or not socialism is working in some countries, like here in Canada. Calling him a communist is uncalled for and a stretch of the truth.
I was unaware Canada was socialists. I thought it had a liberal government. And liberals are usually standing for a liberal economy - and that is a free market economy. And that is the opposite of socialism. That is at least the case in Europe. But in North America things may be different.
Chavez is a commie. He is developing close ties to Cuba and is arming poor people - the Bolivarian circles - to fight for him. That shows that he acts against the law and the constituition by arming a militia. He is undermining the rule of law and the power monopoly of the state by illegaly creating his private army. That shows that he is willing to stay in power and is willing to use force. That is the atribute of a dictator.

I was unaware Canada was socialists. I thought it had a liberal government. And liberals are usually standing for a liberal economy - and that is a free market economy. And that is the opposite of socialism. That is at least the case in Europe. But in North America things may be different.
Chavez is a commie. He is developing close ties to Cuba and is arming poor people - the Bolivarian circles - to fight for him. That shows that he acts against the law and the constituition by arming a militia. He is undermining the rule of law and the power monopoly of the state by illegaly creating his private army. That shows that he is willing to stay in power and is willing to use force. That is the atribute of a dictator.
First, I'd like to see sources backing what you claim. Besides, having ties with Cuba does not make you a communist. And stating that Chavez is a communist without backing is like saying the sky is purple: it does not make it so.

Second, Liberal is just the name of the party in Canada. We have socialist policies. We ressemble more socialist counties like Denmark or Sweden than the capitalism of the US.

First, I'd like to see sources backing what you claim. Besides, having ties with Cuba does not make you a communist. And stating that Chavez is a communist without backing is like saying the sky is purple: it does not make it so.

Second, Liberal is just the name of the party in Canada. We have socialist policies. We ressemble more socialist counties like Denmark or Sweden than the capitalism of the US.
However, Canada is still predominatly capitalist, as you guys have free enterprise and private property. Not as capitalist as I want, perhaps, but capitalist, none the less. Some states in the US have socialist policies, but are they socialist?

However, Canada is still predominatly capitalist, as you guys have free enterprise and private property. Not as capitalist as I want, perhaps, but capitalist, none the less. Some states in the US have socialist policies, but are they socialist?
Well I did some research and I came to the conclusion that Canada is fairly central. It has free enterprise, but have nationalised some of them. It has social policies (social security, salaries for the unemployed) but not as much as some european countries. And our enterprise aren't as free as in the US. There's plenty of regulations and watchdog to look out for the little guy.We have a little of both.

Besides, since when does socialism = no private property?

Besides, since when does socialism = no private property?

since always. in the means of production and distribution anyways.

bump!

Well, with oil production at maximum capacity, curtosey of the Saudis, I feel there'll be a glut this winter. I heard that on top of large supplies, the winter in the Northeastern US will be very cold. It'd be interesting to see if Chavez can survive this winter. After all, the main moneymaker there, being his company Citgo, will see slow business, due to lack of driving.