NationStates Jolt Archive

http://www.iht.com/articles/534223.html
This article seems to suggest yes. War seems all but inevitable, and if that happens, as the article suggests, the nation will be f---ed up, and foreign intervention, possibly by the US, may be warranted.

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War sounds like it's going to happen.

Three break aways and the main country thinks it owns them.

I doubt the US will send troops. It would spoil a few of the EU youngsters complaining ability for this board but I could see them sending more money and weapons as well as "advisors."

Why the break aways? Those regions haven't been automous in almost forever.....

Sounds messy indeed. Fortunatly, some US troops are already in the country, so it won't threaten our interests.

War sounds like it's going to happen.

Three break aways and the main country thinks it owns them.

I doubt the US will send troops. It would spoil a few of the EU youngsters complaining ability for this board but I could see them sending more money and weapons as well as "advisors."

Why the break aways? Those regions haven't been automous in almost forever.....
Actually, they might, and here's why. The US, in order to protect economic interests, may intervene if things get hairy, because of a gas pipeline. To make the long story short, oil will be replaced by natural gas as the primary fuel source as early as twenty years from now. If the US wishes to maintain power in that market, they need a pipeline from the fields of Central Asia to the sea, but not through Russia or China. Afghanistan is out, but Georgia is possible. That's why intervention can't be ruled out.

Have any of you played Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell? The plot involves a corrupt Georgian govt invading Azerbijan, attacking the US w/some sort of cyberterrorism, and then attempting (but failing) to detonate a SADM (suitcase nuke) outside of DC

Have any of you played Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell? The plot involves a corrupt Georgian govt invading Azerbijan, attacking the US w/some sort of cyberterrorism, and then attempting (but failing) to detonate a SADM (suitcase nuke) outside of DC
No, but it sounds interesting. Hey, perhaps it's happening now.

Doesn't the US want a pipeline in Georgia? I hope it gets one. It was jipped with the decline of the Silk Road.

Wha? I'm in Atlanta right now, and I've heard nothing of this upcoming war.

Wha? I'm in Atlanta right now, and I've heard nothing of this upcoming war.
That's because, at the moment, it has no effect on anyone outside of Georgia. I, however, see this could have geopolitical consequences.

That's because, at the moment, it has no effect on anyone outside of Georgia. I, however, see this could have geopolitical consequences.

Look, someone had to make this joke sooner or later. Atlanta is in Georgia, you see.

Look, someone had to make this joke sooner or later. Atlanta is in Georgia, you see.
Oh, sorry. I'm tired right now, and didn't see the Atlanta part.

War sounds like it's going to happen.

Three break aways and the main country thinks it owns them.

I doubt the US will send troops. It would spoil a few of the EU youngsters complaining ability for this board but I could see them sending more money and weapons as well as "advisors."

Why the break aways? Those regions haven't been automous in almost forever..... The EU has less influcence in the Caucasus than the US does. Russia is still the boss in the Caucasus.

Actually, they might, and here's why. The US, in order to protect economic interests, may intervene if things get hairy, because of a gas pipeline. To make the long story short, oil will be replaced by natural gas as the primary fuel source as early as twenty years from now. If the US wishes to maintain power in that market, they need a pipeline from the fields of Central Asia to the sea, but not through Russia or China. Afghanistan is out, but Georgia is possible. That's why intervention can't be ruled out. Keep dreaming.

The US is not going to intervene. Why? Georgia is in Russia's strategic backyard. Russia provides military and economic aid to South Ossetia and Abkhazia while CIS 'peacekeepers' (mainly Russian) patrol the areas between the different factions. Basically, Russia has been supporting the separatist regions in Georgia since the collapse of the USSR.

Georgia is not going to risk upsetting Russia by starting a new conflict. Saakashvili talks alot but he knows that Russia has alot of influence over Georgian affairs. All Russia needs to do is cut electricity supplies for a few days to make its point.

Why the break aways? Those regions haven't been automous in almost forever.....

because russia went straight from a feudal empire to a stalinist one, with no real cultural integration between the conquerors and the subjugated. hell, in certain cases stalin had entire ethnic groups rounded up and shipped off to siberia.

and i don't think the length of time since independence necessarily lessens the passion for it. check out the basque sepratists.

Keep dreaming.

The US is not going to intervene. Why? Georgia is in Russia's strategic backyard. Russia provides military and economic aid to South Ossetia and Abkhazia while CIS 'peacekeepers' (mainly Russian) patrol the areas between the different factions. Basically, Russia has been supporting the separatist regions in Georgia since the collapse of the USSR.

Georgia is not going to risk upsetting Russia by starting a new conflict. Saakashvili talks alot but he knows that Russia has alot of influence over Georgian affairs. All Russia needs to do is cut electricity supplies for a few days to make its point.
In such a situation, however, the US would at least send a humanitarian force. Russia may be king, but if they retain their iron fist on the Caucasus, not only do they control their own natural gas supplies (the world's largest reserves), but also that of Central Asia. This could lead to Russia as a resurgent superpower, and with the current political situation in Russia, no one wants that.

I already posted an interesting article on the struggle for oil and gas reserves in post-Soviet Central Asia.

Find it here:

http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=345009


I assume it will be of some interest to you also. :)

I already posted an interesting article on the struggle for oil and gas reserves in post-Soviet Central Asia.

Find it here:

http://forums.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=345009


I assume it will be of some interest to you also. :)
I posted a bit on this in your other thread. To make the long story short, if the Iranian regime ever topples, and is replaced by a pro-Western one, then Russia can kiss Central Asia goodbye.