Cannot think of a name
30-07-2004, 02:34
Both sides of the coming election (sorry non-Americans, yet another thing about US elections......) speak with an almost absolute confidence about who is going to win, despite that the numbers are remarkably close.
Add to that the fact that predictions have so off recently weathermen are cracking jokes (predicted: Bush wins popular, Gore Electoral; Dean wins nominations; some other examples that would have driven my point home but I forgot.....dammit....) and I start to wonder, where is the confidence coming from? How is it people on both sides of the fence seem so rock solid sure they've got the pulse?
This isn't a convention criticism, your supposed to talk like your winning there, I'm talking the pundit on the street, the cat who believes you need to know his prediction, or you all-the ones that are laying the predictions down as gospel. Where is that coming from? Why is it close in every measure but your heads? What do you know that is being missed by every other means of measuring these prediction?
As a note, I should add that given the inaccurate predictions that should have been better detailed (..dammit..) the I question the standard methods of prediction as well.
In short (too late), what makes you so sure?
Add to that the fact that predictions have so off recently weathermen are cracking jokes (predicted: Bush wins popular, Gore Electoral; Dean wins nominations; some other examples that would have driven my point home but I forgot.....dammit....) and I start to wonder, where is the confidence coming from? How is it people on both sides of the fence seem so rock solid sure they've got the pulse?
This isn't a convention criticism, your supposed to talk like your winning there, I'm talking the pundit on the street, the cat who believes you need to know his prediction, or you all-the ones that are laying the predictions down as gospel. Where is that coming from? Why is it close in every measure but your heads? What do you know that is being missed by every other means of measuring these prediction?
As a note, I should add that given the inaccurate predictions that should have been better detailed (..dammit..) the I question the standard methods of prediction as well.
In short (too late), what makes you so sure?