Dalradia
29-07-2004, 16:25
Recently the EU completed its draft constitution, and one consideration that it made was the election of the President. When considering this matter myself I looked at the arguments had by the writers of the American constitution and was impressed by the Electoral College system.
I noticed recently however that there are many Americans on this forum who disagree with my observation of the elegance of their system, and I expect there are many of my fellow Europeans also, possibly for different reasons.
I would like therefore to present my argument in favour of the Electoral College, and why America should keep it. I would also propose a few reforms to the system, but not being American I must leave it to them to instigate any such changes.
Firstly it should be noted why the idea of a directly elected president was rejected in America:
“Direct election was rejected not because the Framers of the Constitution doubted public intelligence but rather because they feared that without sufficient information about candidates from outside their State, people would naturally vote for a "favourite son" from their own State or region. At worst, no president would emerge with a popular majority sufficient to govern the whole country. At best, the choice of president would always be decided by the largest, most populous States with little regard for the smaller ones.”*
This is clearly no longer the case in the USA, the advertising budgets for presidential elections is huge and everyone speaks the same language. In Europe however this is not the case, and an election could occur where the French vote for the French guy, the Germans for the German guy and the Brits for a British guy. No one would have any clear majority, and the German would get most votes every time, as Germany has the largest population.
The structure of the Electoral College can be traced to the Centurial Assembly system of the Roman Republic, so the system is in fact of European origin, and Italian to boot, so will be more acceptable to the old guard Europe. You would be surprised how many people would reject a system just because it was devised in America.
As I see it, there are two chief objections to in America to the Electoral College system:
1. The possibility of electing a president with a minority vote.
2. The failure to represent the national popular will.
The first concern is certainly well founded; there are two different ways in which this could happen.
1. If one candidate wins by a large majority in some states but loses by a whisker in others, so that the candidate winning many marginal states wins the election, despite the other candidate having more votes. This has only happened once, in 1888.
2. The votes could be split by a third party, taking votes from one or both major parties there is a possibility that no party receives more than 50% of the votes cast. This is a fairly frequent occurrence, but has only been controversial once: in 1824 when four candidates each got a similar share of the vote, the House of Representatives chose John Quincy Adams, despite Andrew Jackson having the most votes. It occurred that in 1912, 1916, 1948, 1960, 1968 and a further ten times in the 19th century, the president was elected with less than 50% of the vote, but in all these cases the winner was clear and the House had no trouble in deciding the outcome.
Part two of this problem can be dismissed at present (but will be returned to) as a directly elected president would face the same problem, and this is not a flaw in the Electoral College.
The occasion where the popular vote differs from the result of the Electoral College (as in 1888) we must consider the purpose of the Electoral College at a more fundamental level, which leads us logically to problem number two, the failure to represent the national popular will.
The Electoral College fails to represent the national popular will in two respects:
1. The weighting of votes favours the inhabitants of the least populous states. (example: the seven least populous states (Alaska, Delaware, DC, N.Dakota, S.Dakota Vermont and Wyoming) have a population of 3M, and has the same number of votes in the electoral college as Florida, population 9½M.)
2. The winner takes all policy (used by all states except Maine and Nebraska) that virtually eliminates any chance of third parties or independents winning an election. (example: a candidate has 25% of the popular vote spread evenly over the country, so wins no states and gets no votes in the electoral college.)
These issues are ones which must be addressed, but before I expound my reforms for the Electoral College, let me first outline why it should be kept.
The Electoral College succeeds in two major respects:
1. Creates greater cohesion in the country by requiring a distribution of votes over the nation.
2. Maintains a federal style of government.
I turn to William C. Kimberling, to expand upon these two points in greater fullness.
Firstly:
“Recognizing the strong regional interests and loyalties which have played so great a role in American history, proponents argue that the Electoral College system contributes to the cohesiveness of the country be requiring a distribution of popular support to be elected president, without such a mechanism, they point out, president would be selected either through the domination of one populous region over the others or through the domination of large metropolitan areas over the rural ones. Indeed, it is principally because of the Electoral College that presidential nominees are inclined to select vice presidential running mates from a region other than their own.
For as things stand now, no one region contains the absolute majority
(270) of electoral votes required to elect a president. Thus, there is an incentive for presidential candidates to pull together coalitions of States and regions rather than to exacerbate regional differences. Such a unifying mechanism seems especially prudent in view of the severe regional problems that have typically plagued geographically large nations such as China, India, the Soviet Union, and even, in its time, the Roman Empire.”*
On an even larger scale, the European Union
“This unifying mechanism does not however, come without a small price. The price is that in very close popular elections, it is possible that the candidate who wins a slight majority of popular votes may not be the one elected president - depending (as in 1888) on whether his popularity is concentrated in a few States or whether it is more evenly distributed across the States.”*
Only once in US history has this happened (not counting 2000 here, because this essay is long enough without that kind of argument), and in practical terms the difference in popular support is not significant enough to prevent either candidate governing effectively.
To address the second point:
“To abolish the Electoral College in favour of a nationwide popular election for president would strike at the very heart of the federal structure laid out in our Constitution and would lead to the nationalization of our central government - to the detriment of the States.”*
In the European context, it is vitally important to many citizens that their national identity be protected. The French will never stop being French, nor the Portuguese Portuguese, and to abolish the nations to which they belong is abhorrent to them. It can never happen, and will never happen. Europe will not form a unitary state, but must be a federation or confederation, and a system which protects this is not only desirable, but necessary, or there can be no system at all.
Now, hopefully this is sufficient reason to keep the college, but we must now address the important issue of popular representation. The system as it stands has two major flaws; the over representation of the inhabitants of some states, and the two party system.
The first problem is one that is inherent to the system. In order for the distribution of votes to be taken into account there must be some weighting of votes. In addition the original effect intend by the founding fathers is maintained today; the federal system is protected, as the interests of the smaller states must be taken into account.
As a side issue, I have never heard any call for the senate to be abolished, and the senate is far more biased in favour of the smaller states than the Electoral College. A truly “representative” congress would consist of a single house, elected from the entire population, using a proportional system. If the popular vote is ideologically so important, then surely the senate should be the first of the institutions to attack?
The issue of third parties is a controversial one in both the USA and the UK. It is my belief that a multi-party system best represents the views of the populace, and in an ideal system there would be no political parties, as every politician would represent a different point of view. Many disagree, and I respect their opinions, I have heard many good cases in favour of two or one party systems but my views remain unchanged. See my other thread “Party Politics”, to have that debate.
In order to give third parties a fair chance, there are a number of changes to the voting system which can be made.
1. Keeping the ‘winner takes all’ system, an ‘alternative vote system’ (AVS) can be used, which allows voter to give a preference to their vote. An American example of how this might work: A liberal is considering who to vote for. She can vote for Ralph Nader, who closely reflect her point of view, but she is afraid that George Bush may win in her state. Under the current system, in order to prevent Bush winning in her state she votes for John Kerry, who she doesn’t really like either, but considers better than Bush. Under and AVS system, she would place Nader first choice, and Kerry second. All the first choice votes are counted, and if it is a close run thing in this particular state, then the candidates who have no chance of winning are eliminated, and the second choice from their ballot is counted. In this system Nader does not split the Democrat vote, and our liberal gets to vote for who she wants. Such a system works for similar parties at the political right, and the system allows votes to show who they really want to elect without prejudice.
2. A state-wide proportional representation system, in which the electors are allocated from the party lists in proportion to their share of the vote. An American example: Democrats get 60% of the vote Republicans get 35% and Libertarians get 5%. If we are in California, under the current system the Democrats get 55 votes in the Electoral College. In a proportional system however: Democrats get 33, Republicans 19 and Libertarians 3 votes in the Electoral College. This then encourages third parties, while forcing the major parties to campaign in “safe” states. Whereas under the current system the Democrats needn’t bother campaigning in California, and the Republicans see it as a lost cause, under a proportional system the major parties would campaign as even a five per cent swing in California makes the same difference as winning or losing small state.
In the USA, either of these changes can be implemented by the state legislature, without a federal constitutional amendment. Democrats in California would want to implement option 1, whereas Republicans would prefer to switch to option 2. Either option would make elections fairer and more interesting.
With either these amendments I would support the adoption of the Electoral College as a means of electing a European President.
Now, if you have the attention span to have read all that, then you are probably smart enough to comment on it. I want to know what you think, so go ahead and post!
*Quotes from a paper published byWilliam C. Kimberling deputy director of FEC National Clearinghouse at time of writing. Views expressed are those of the individual writer, and not of the FEC.
I noticed recently however that there are many Americans on this forum who disagree with my observation of the elegance of their system, and I expect there are many of my fellow Europeans also, possibly for different reasons.
I would like therefore to present my argument in favour of the Electoral College, and why America should keep it. I would also propose a few reforms to the system, but not being American I must leave it to them to instigate any such changes.
Firstly it should be noted why the idea of a directly elected president was rejected in America:
“Direct election was rejected not because the Framers of the Constitution doubted public intelligence but rather because they feared that without sufficient information about candidates from outside their State, people would naturally vote for a "favourite son" from their own State or region. At worst, no president would emerge with a popular majority sufficient to govern the whole country. At best, the choice of president would always be decided by the largest, most populous States with little regard for the smaller ones.”*
This is clearly no longer the case in the USA, the advertising budgets for presidential elections is huge and everyone speaks the same language. In Europe however this is not the case, and an election could occur where the French vote for the French guy, the Germans for the German guy and the Brits for a British guy. No one would have any clear majority, and the German would get most votes every time, as Germany has the largest population.
The structure of the Electoral College can be traced to the Centurial Assembly system of the Roman Republic, so the system is in fact of European origin, and Italian to boot, so will be more acceptable to the old guard Europe. You would be surprised how many people would reject a system just because it was devised in America.
As I see it, there are two chief objections to in America to the Electoral College system:
1. The possibility of electing a president with a minority vote.
2. The failure to represent the national popular will.
The first concern is certainly well founded; there are two different ways in which this could happen.
1. If one candidate wins by a large majority in some states but loses by a whisker in others, so that the candidate winning many marginal states wins the election, despite the other candidate having more votes. This has only happened once, in 1888.
2. The votes could be split by a third party, taking votes from one or both major parties there is a possibility that no party receives more than 50% of the votes cast. This is a fairly frequent occurrence, but has only been controversial once: in 1824 when four candidates each got a similar share of the vote, the House of Representatives chose John Quincy Adams, despite Andrew Jackson having the most votes. It occurred that in 1912, 1916, 1948, 1960, 1968 and a further ten times in the 19th century, the president was elected with less than 50% of the vote, but in all these cases the winner was clear and the House had no trouble in deciding the outcome.
Part two of this problem can be dismissed at present (but will be returned to) as a directly elected president would face the same problem, and this is not a flaw in the Electoral College.
The occasion where the popular vote differs from the result of the Electoral College (as in 1888) we must consider the purpose of the Electoral College at a more fundamental level, which leads us logically to problem number two, the failure to represent the national popular will.
The Electoral College fails to represent the national popular will in two respects:
1. The weighting of votes favours the inhabitants of the least populous states. (example: the seven least populous states (Alaska, Delaware, DC, N.Dakota, S.Dakota Vermont and Wyoming) have a population of 3M, and has the same number of votes in the electoral college as Florida, population 9½M.)
2. The winner takes all policy (used by all states except Maine and Nebraska) that virtually eliminates any chance of third parties or independents winning an election. (example: a candidate has 25% of the popular vote spread evenly over the country, so wins no states and gets no votes in the electoral college.)
These issues are ones which must be addressed, but before I expound my reforms for the Electoral College, let me first outline why it should be kept.
The Electoral College succeeds in two major respects:
1. Creates greater cohesion in the country by requiring a distribution of votes over the nation.
2. Maintains a federal style of government.
I turn to William C. Kimberling, to expand upon these two points in greater fullness.
Firstly:
“Recognizing the strong regional interests and loyalties which have played so great a role in American history, proponents argue that the Electoral College system contributes to the cohesiveness of the country be requiring a distribution of popular support to be elected president, without such a mechanism, they point out, president would be selected either through the domination of one populous region over the others or through the domination of large metropolitan areas over the rural ones. Indeed, it is principally because of the Electoral College that presidential nominees are inclined to select vice presidential running mates from a region other than their own.
For as things stand now, no one region contains the absolute majority
(270) of electoral votes required to elect a president. Thus, there is an incentive for presidential candidates to pull together coalitions of States and regions rather than to exacerbate regional differences. Such a unifying mechanism seems especially prudent in view of the severe regional problems that have typically plagued geographically large nations such as China, India, the Soviet Union, and even, in its time, the Roman Empire.”*
On an even larger scale, the European Union
“This unifying mechanism does not however, come without a small price. The price is that in very close popular elections, it is possible that the candidate who wins a slight majority of popular votes may not be the one elected president - depending (as in 1888) on whether his popularity is concentrated in a few States or whether it is more evenly distributed across the States.”*
Only once in US history has this happened (not counting 2000 here, because this essay is long enough without that kind of argument), and in practical terms the difference in popular support is not significant enough to prevent either candidate governing effectively.
To address the second point:
“To abolish the Electoral College in favour of a nationwide popular election for president would strike at the very heart of the federal structure laid out in our Constitution and would lead to the nationalization of our central government - to the detriment of the States.”*
In the European context, it is vitally important to many citizens that their national identity be protected. The French will never stop being French, nor the Portuguese Portuguese, and to abolish the nations to which they belong is abhorrent to them. It can never happen, and will never happen. Europe will not form a unitary state, but must be a federation or confederation, and a system which protects this is not only desirable, but necessary, or there can be no system at all.
Now, hopefully this is sufficient reason to keep the college, but we must now address the important issue of popular representation. The system as it stands has two major flaws; the over representation of the inhabitants of some states, and the two party system.
The first problem is one that is inherent to the system. In order for the distribution of votes to be taken into account there must be some weighting of votes. In addition the original effect intend by the founding fathers is maintained today; the federal system is protected, as the interests of the smaller states must be taken into account.
As a side issue, I have never heard any call for the senate to be abolished, and the senate is far more biased in favour of the smaller states than the Electoral College. A truly “representative” congress would consist of a single house, elected from the entire population, using a proportional system. If the popular vote is ideologically so important, then surely the senate should be the first of the institutions to attack?
The issue of third parties is a controversial one in both the USA and the UK. It is my belief that a multi-party system best represents the views of the populace, and in an ideal system there would be no political parties, as every politician would represent a different point of view. Many disagree, and I respect their opinions, I have heard many good cases in favour of two or one party systems but my views remain unchanged. See my other thread “Party Politics”, to have that debate.
In order to give third parties a fair chance, there are a number of changes to the voting system which can be made.
1. Keeping the ‘winner takes all’ system, an ‘alternative vote system’ (AVS) can be used, which allows voter to give a preference to their vote. An American example of how this might work: A liberal is considering who to vote for. She can vote for Ralph Nader, who closely reflect her point of view, but she is afraid that George Bush may win in her state. Under the current system, in order to prevent Bush winning in her state she votes for John Kerry, who she doesn’t really like either, but considers better than Bush. Under and AVS system, she would place Nader first choice, and Kerry second. All the first choice votes are counted, and if it is a close run thing in this particular state, then the candidates who have no chance of winning are eliminated, and the second choice from their ballot is counted. In this system Nader does not split the Democrat vote, and our liberal gets to vote for who she wants. Such a system works for similar parties at the political right, and the system allows votes to show who they really want to elect without prejudice.
2. A state-wide proportional representation system, in which the electors are allocated from the party lists in proportion to their share of the vote. An American example: Democrats get 60% of the vote Republicans get 35% and Libertarians get 5%. If we are in California, under the current system the Democrats get 55 votes in the Electoral College. In a proportional system however: Democrats get 33, Republicans 19 and Libertarians 3 votes in the Electoral College. This then encourages third parties, while forcing the major parties to campaign in “safe” states. Whereas under the current system the Democrats needn’t bother campaigning in California, and the Republicans see it as a lost cause, under a proportional system the major parties would campaign as even a five per cent swing in California makes the same difference as winning or losing small state.
In the USA, either of these changes can be implemented by the state legislature, without a federal constitutional amendment. Democrats in California would want to implement option 1, whereas Republicans would prefer to switch to option 2. Either option would make elections fairer and more interesting.
With either these amendments I would support the adoption of the Electoral College as a means of electing a European President.
Now, if you have the attention span to have read all that, then you are probably smart enough to comment on it. I want to know what you think, so go ahead and post!
*Quotes from a paper published byWilliam C. Kimberling deputy director of FEC National Clearinghouse at time of writing. Views expressed are those of the individual writer, and not of the FEC.