NationStates Jolt Archive

http://www.strategypage.com//fyeo/qndguide/default.asp?target=ISRAEL.HTM

ISRAEL: Palestinian Civil War Breaks Out

July 19, 2004: The crises in the Palestinian territories has reached a boiling point as armed factions threaten more violence against what they see as a corrupt and ineffective Palestinian Authority. The uprising began in the 16th, when two militant Palestinian factions (the Jenin Martyr's Brigades and the Battalions of the Martyr Ahmed Abu al-Rish) kidnapped two senior Palestinian officials, and four French aid workers. All the captives were released in a few hours. But the point was made; the Palestinian Authority would have to clean up its act or be violently destroyed. On the 17th, several thousand Palestinians demonstrated against the Palestinian Authority. Many of the demonstrators were armed. On the 18th, demonstrators burned down the Palestinian Authority offices in Gaza. Several hundred armed men attacked a Palestinian Authority military intelligence in Rafah, leaving at least a dozen wounded.

I slmost hope they do manage to kick out that corrupt old SOB Arafat, but the replacements would be worse.

Any comments?

I tend to agree that while Arafat is hardly inspirational, there arent too many others who could hold the palestinian authority together. The hope would be that Israel might be more flexible with his successor....... wait a minute my ESP is kicking in....... fat chance while Sharon is around.

Once peace is made in the middle east, its time you brace yourself for the second coming.

I'd be happy to watch the Palestinian Civil War on pay-per-view.

I don´t think we are going to see a civil war. A civil war would break out if the Palestinina ruling class would really do somethin against terrorism and the organisations that arrange it (Hamas, Dschihad). But that is not going to happen. There are power fights, quarrels, shootings and other incidents. But this isn´t a civil war. Those are going to continue. After Arafats dead however a civil war may begins if nobody is able to position himself clearly as the successor. Thus far nobody exists.
And as long as the possible successor is not able to consolidate his position he is incapable to negotiate with Israel. Therefore the chances that an end of Arafats rule (which only would realisticly come due to his death by the way) would not lead to a stabilisation of the situation in the short run. The opposite may be the case.