Ilham
24-05-2004, 13:28
http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/commentary/story/0,4386,252534,00.html?
US must rethink sanctions on Myanmar
By David I. Steinberg
WHEN the military leaders of Myanmar convened a constitutional convention last Monday without the participation of the country's opposition party, they lost an opportunity for progress. United States President George W. Bush also lost a chance for influence when he extended political and economic sanctions against Myanmar for another year, in response to 'large-scale repression of the democratic opposition'.
ARTWORK BY ADAM LEE
While emotionally satisfying, such sweeping sanctions may hurt the US, its allies and Myanmar civilians. By isolating Myanmar, the US has neglected humanitarian concerns and driven Myanmar closer to China than might otherwise have been the case.
To understand why the US policy is counterproductive, consider the wider context. Myanmar is a strategic nexus. It flanks the two greatest regional powers in Asia - China and India. Although their present relations are benign, these two countries fought one war in 1962 and the Indian secretary of defence has indicated that China is India's potential enemy.
BALANCING CHINA'S INFLUENCE
MYANMAR links India to the rest of Asean, and for China it provides access to the Bay of Bengal and potentially to the Malacca Straits, the most important natural waterway in the world. This has obviously been of concern to Delhi, which tests its missiles on the Bay. Key Japanese officials have also indicated that a Myanmar closely allied with China is not in Japan's national interest. If it hopes to balance Chinese influence, the US should reconsider its policies.
China has been engaged in a most effective diplomatic and economic initiative in South-east Asia. It has close trade, investment and diplomatic relations with Asean, the region's collective grouping.
Individually, it has improved relations with each of the region's nations. Nowhere has this relationship been closer than with Myanmar.
China has supplied about US$2 billion (S$3.4 billion) for armaments that have made the Myanmar military, the second largest in South-east Asia after Vietnam, much more technically sophisticated. It has helped in the construction of roads, railroads, airfields, ports and dams throughout the country. Last year, China provided Myanmar with US$200 million in economic assistance.
Equally important are unrecorded Chinese influences: Chinese investment - probably the largest of any foreign country - is not found in international statistics. Border trade is also vastly under-reported, and illegal Chinese immigration has been extensive. Mandalay, the seat of Myanmar culture, is reported to be about 20 per cent Yunnanese Chinese, while Lashio - the most important city of northern Myanmar - is about 50 per cent Chinese.
Since the 1988 military coup, India has worried more than any regional power about the China-Myanmar connection. A Myanmar state dominated by China would place India at a distinct disadvantage: China to the north, China's ally Pakistan on the western flank, and a Chinese-influenced Myanmar to the east.
Yet, rather than seeking to isolate Myanmar, in recent years, India has offered economic and strategic support in order to counter China's influence.
Japan has also been anxious to provide assistance. Asean itself, concerned with the extent of Chinese penetration in Myanmar, admitted Myanmar in July 1997 to mitigate that influence.
In contrast, US policy towards Myanmar since 1988 has been consistent but narrowly focused. Immediately following the 1988 coup, the US cut off military and economic assistance. A few years later, it refused to nominate an American ambassador to Myanmar.
The US has demanded that the military leave power and honour the results of the May 1990 election, which was swept by the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD). Ms Aung San Suu Kyi, the general secretary of that party, received the Nobel Peace Prize and remains an international icon. She has been under house arrest on three separate occasions since 1989. Her current confinement has lasted almost a year.
In 1997, the US Congress passed legislation banning all new US investment. As a result of a government-sponsored ambush of Ms Suu Kyi's motorcade on May 30 last year, in which a large number of people were killed, Congress banned all imports - consisting mainly of textiles - from Myanmar (more than US$350 million annually).
President Bush issued an executive order freezing all Myanmar assets, effectively preventing financial exchanges involving the US banking system, and prohibiting visas to the US of higher-level Myanmar people associated with the regime. Mr Bush's recent announcement extends these policies.
STRICT ISOLATION POLICY
THE intent of sanctions has been to isolate Myanmar and force the military from power. But no other country has approved an isolation policy as strict as that of the US. Essentially, the US has called for 'regime change' in Myanmar, as a means of promoting democracy and human rights.
What possibility is there for reform on the Myanmar side?
A truncated National Convention - initiated by Myanmar's Prime Minister, General Khin Nyunt - began last Monday, with the goal of drafting a new national Constitution. All political parties and major minority groups with which the regime has ceasefire agreements were invited, in what was probably the most important chance for change in many years. But the NLD's refusal to participate has stripped the convention of international legitimacy.
In 2006, Myanmar will host the Asean Summit. It must assuage that grouping, for without change Myanmar would be an embarrassment and could be suspended or even expelled, although the latter seems unlikely.
The Thai prime minister and the Malaysian foreign minister have both expressed concern about the situation.
Whether there will be a new election and government with a multiparty system by that time is doubtful, although the military has eventually promised one. But even the military realises that by 2006, there needs to be a new Constitution ratified through the polls.
The US sanctions policy has failed. Instead of promoting the 'unconditional surrender' of the Myanmar military, it has strengthened Myanmar resolve to stand up to US pressure, as any government must do in a highly charged nationalistic environment. It has thrown Myanmar increasingly closer to China.
The US needs to rethink its policy, now essentially made in the Congress and not in the Department of State.
The writer is distinguished professor and director of Asian studies, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. Rights: YaleGlobal Online, www.yaleglobal.yale.edu
-----------------------------------
Think in the long-term.Engage Myanmar and let it open up slowly.I mean,it isn't a big change is it?You supported military dictatorships in Taiwan,Korea,South Vietnam and the Phillipines as well as Thailand.Why not this one?
Its making an attempt anyway,'persuaded' by the efforts of my nation,if anybody who has seen my previous psts already knows.
US must rethink sanctions on Myanmar
By David I. Steinberg
WHEN the military leaders of Myanmar convened a constitutional convention last Monday without the participation of the country's opposition party, they lost an opportunity for progress. United States President George W. Bush also lost a chance for influence when he extended political and economic sanctions against Myanmar for another year, in response to 'large-scale repression of the democratic opposition'.
ARTWORK BY ADAM LEE
While emotionally satisfying, such sweeping sanctions may hurt the US, its allies and Myanmar civilians. By isolating Myanmar, the US has neglected humanitarian concerns and driven Myanmar closer to China than might otherwise have been the case.
To understand why the US policy is counterproductive, consider the wider context. Myanmar is a strategic nexus. It flanks the two greatest regional powers in Asia - China and India. Although their present relations are benign, these two countries fought one war in 1962 and the Indian secretary of defence has indicated that China is India's potential enemy.
BALANCING CHINA'S INFLUENCE
MYANMAR links India to the rest of Asean, and for China it provides access to the Bay of Bengal and potentially to the Malacca Straits, the most important natural waterway in the world. This has obviously been of concern to Delhi, which tests its missiles on the Bay. Key Japanese officials have also indicated that a Myanmar closely allied with China is not in Japan's national interest. If it hopes to balance Chinese influence, the US should reconsider its policies.
China has been engaged in a most effective diplomatic and economic initiative in South-east Asia. It has close trade, investment and diplomatic relations with Asean, the region's collective grouping.
Individually, it has improved relations with each of the region's nations. Nowhere has this relationship been closer than with Myanmar.
China has supplied about US$2 billion (S$3.4 billion) for armaments that have made the Myanmar military, the second largest in South-east Asia after Vietnam, much more technically sophisticated. It has helped in the construction of roads, railroads, airfields, ports and dams throughout the country. Last year, China provided Myanmar with US$200 million in economic assistance.
Equally important are unrecorded Chinese influences: Chinese investment - probably the largest of any foreign country - is not found in international statistics. Border trade is also vastly under-reported, and illegal Chinese immigration has been extensive. Mandalay, the seat of Myanmar culture, is reported to be about 20 per cent Yunnanese Chinese, while Lashio - the most important city of northern Myanmar - is about 50 per cent Chinese.
Since the 1988 military coup, India has worried more than any regional power about the China-Myanmar connection. A Myanmar state dominated by China would place India at a distinct disadvantage: China to the north, China's ally Pakistan on the western flank, and a Chinese-influenced Myanmar to the east.
Yet, rather than seeking to isolate Myanmar, in recent years, India has offered economic and strategic support in order to counter China's influence.
Japan has also been anxious to provide assistance. Asean itself, concerned with the extent of Chinese penetration in Myanmar, admitted Myanmar in July 1997 to mitigate that influence.
In contrast, US policy towards Myanmar since 1988 has been consistent but narrowly focused. Immediately following the 1988 coup, the US cut off military and economic assistance. A few years later, it refused to nominate an American ambassador to Myanmar.
The US has demanded that the military leave power and honour the results of the May 1990 election, which was swept by the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD). Ms Aung San Suu Kyi, the general secretary of that party, received the Nobel Peace Prize and remains an international icon. She has been under house arrest on three separate occasions since 1989. Her current confinement has lasted almost a year.
In 1997, the US Congress passed legislation banning all new US investment. As a result of a government-sponsored ambush of Ms Suu Kyi's motorcade on May 30 last year, in which a large number of people were killed, Congress banned all imports - consisting mainly of textiles - from Myanmar (more than US$350 million annually).
President Bush issued an executive order freezing all Myanmar assets, effectively preventing financial exchanges involving the US banking system, and prohibiting visas to the US of higher-level Myanmar people associated with the regime. Mr Bush's recent announcement extends these policies.
STRICT ISOLATION POLICY
THE intent of sanctions has been to isolate Myanmar and force the military from power. But no other country has approved an isolation policy as strict as that of the US. Essentially, the US has called for 'regime change' in Myanmar, as a means of promoting democracy and human rights.
What possibility is there for reform on the Myanmar side?
A truncated National Convention - initiated by Myanmar's Prime Minister, General Khin Nyunt - began last Monday, with the goal of drafting a new national Constitution. All political parties and major minority groups with which the regime has ceasefire agreements were invited, in what was probably the most important chance for change in many years. But the NLD's refusal to participate has stripped the convention of international legitimacy.
In 2006, Myanmar will host the Asean Summit. It must assuage that grouping, for without change Myanmar would be an embarrassment and could be suspended or even expelled, although the latter seems unlikely.
The Thai prime minister and the Malaysian foreign minister have both expressed concern about the situation.
Whether there will be a new election and government with a multiparty system by that time is doubtful, although the military has eventually promised one. But even the military realises that by 2006, there needs to be a new Constitution ratified through the polls.
The US sanctions policy has failed. Instead of promoting the 'unconditional surrender' of the Myanmar military, it has strengthened Myanmar resolve to stand up to US pressure, as any government must do in a highly charged nationalistic environment. It has thrown Myanmar increasingly closer to China.
The US needs to rethink its policy, now essentially made in the Congress and not in the Department of State.
The writer is distinguished professor and director of Asian studies, School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University. Rights: YaleGlobal Online, www.yaleglobal.yale.edu
-----------------------------------
Think in the long-term.Engage Myanmar and let it open up slowly.I mean,it isn't a big change is it?You supported military dictatorships in Taiwan,Korea,South Vietnam and the Phillipines as well as Thailand.Why not this one?
Its making an attempt anyway,'persuaded' by the efforts of my nation,if anybody who has seen my previous psts already knows.