NationStates Jolt Archive

I heard over the weekend that John McCain was being mentioned as a possible running mate for Kerry. It's extremely doubtful that McCain would accept, but it is an interesting premise.
So, what opinions do we have out there regarding ...

A Kerry/McCain ticket

and/or ...

A possible split party ticket?

I'm personally a big fan of John McCain, in fact I wish he was running for President on the Democratic ticket to be honest. However, I believe if he would agree to the Veep spot with Kerry, they very well maybe un-stoppable (I believe because of McCain more then Kerry) I don't think it matters really any way.. As long as Kerry doesn't screw himself and just sits back right now, Bush is digging his own grave these days.. The new numbers out spell the end to Bush if we look at them from a historical point of view. The shift has taken place already. Bush is going to have to pull one hell of a trick out of his butt if he expects to win. I'm not seeing it.

I for one would love to see a Kerry/McCain ticket.

I'd love it! I'm not voting for Bush anyways and I'd feel a lot better about voting for Kerry if he had someone like McCain on the ticket. Too bad it won't happen though... =(

The new numbers out spell the end to Bush if we look at them from a historical point of view. The shift has taken place already. Bush is going to have to pull one hell of a trick out of his butt if he expects to win. I'm not seeing it.
I for one would love to see a Kerry/McCain ticket.
Actually, as long as Bush stays above 40%, historically he is totally viable. Right now, both Kerry is backed into a corner on his past contradicting comments. He needs a fresh issue for perspective or a major Bush political scandal to gain any real ground between now and November.

The new numbers out spell the end to Bush if we look at them from a historical point of view. The shift has taken place already. Bush is going to have to pull one hell of a trick out of his butt if he expects to win. I'm not seeing it.
I for one would love to see a Kerry/McCain ticket.
Actually, as long as Bush stays above 40%, historically he is totally viable. Right now, both Kerry is backed into a corner on his past contradicting comments. He needs a fresh issue for perspective or a major Bush political scandal to gain any real ground between now and November.

I'm sorry but you're incorrect.. as long as the sitting president stays above 50%.. not 40%... if we look at recent history.. Regean was over 50%.. he got re-elected.. Bush Sr. was around 38% he was defeated.. Ford was around 47% he was defeated. Clinton was around 55% he was re-elected.. Once they drop below 50% it's never a good sign..

Actually, I think it would be good for the country, overall. It sure would blur the strictly divided party lines we have now. As someone posted in one of the threads last week, I would love to see the fiscal conservatives from both parties split off and form a third party: Zel Miller, McCain, Lieberman...

It sure would spark some political interest in the country again.

[I'm sorry but you're incorrect.. as long as the sitting president stays above 50%.. not 40%... if we look at recent history.. Regean was over 50%.. he got re-elected.. Bush Sr. was around 38% he was defeated.. Ford was around 47% he was defeated. Clinton was around 55% he was re-elected.. Once they drop below 50% it's never a good sign..
I am not talking about only the last few elections around August numbers. The "magic" numbers are 40% and up for the spring before an election. It is a general rule of thumb that as the election comes closer, beginning in June/July, that the numbers for an incumbent will increase just a few points unless if a scandal breaks. This can be shown going back a hundred years with local general party affiliation as well.

[I'm sorry but you're incorrect.. as long as the sitting president stays above 50%.. not 40%... if we look at recent history.. Regean was over 50%.. he got re-elected.. Bush Sr. was around 38% he was defeated.. Ford was around 47% he was defeated. Clinton was around 55% he was re-elected.. Once they drop below 50% it's never a good sign..
I am not talking about only the last few elections around August numbers. The "magic" numbers are 40% and up for the spring before an election. It is a general rule of thumb that as the election comes closer, beginning in June/July, that the numbers for an incumbent will increase just a few points unless if a scandal breaks. This can be shown going back a hundred years with local general party affiliation as well.

Actually the numbers I just gave you came out the other day at where each of those presidents were at this time.. 6 months before the election. I'm sorry, but I am going to have to agree to disagree with you. The "magic" number is 50%

Steph is more or less right on the numbers. However, the earliest approval polls I can find only date back to FDR in 1939, so there is not really much of a record.

every incumbent president since Roosevelt who was at 50% approval or higher in April of his election year went on to win.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/2003-12-26-approval-ratings_x.htm

Actually the numbers I just gave you came out the other day at where each of those presidents were at this time.. 6 months before the election. I'm sorry, but I am going to have to agree to disagree with you. The "magic" number is 50%Yeah, I saw the same report and burst out laughing. This type of information is why US media news is so bad. They were using only the last few election statistics that were based on newspaper polls alone (many of them having margins more than +/-5%). That type of mis-informed reporting makes you ill when actually have a degree in the field and know how biased their sources for the reports are.

Actually the numbers I just gave you came out the other day at where each of those presidents were at this time.. 6 months before the election. I'm sorry, but I am going to have to agree to disagree with you. The "magic" number is 50%Yeah, I saw the same report and burst out laughing. This type of information is why US media news is so bad. They were using only the last few election statistics that were based on newspaper polls alone (many of them having margins more than +/-5%). That type of mis-informed reporting makes you ill when actually have a degree in the field and know how biased their sources for the reports are.

No one can argue, as it stands.. and with the abuse scandal going on, huge numbers of Americans seriously questioning the Iraq war all together, Bush is in trouble.

No one can argue, as it stands.. and with the abuse scandal going on, huge numbers of Americans seriously questioning the Iraq war all together, Bush is in trouble.I would disagree, again, with that statement. As long as it is May, he has time to recover. Six months is a long time for other things to get into the voter's head. Say, gas prices going down drastically and a small boom in the economy (not even a large one - but large enough for a stock market rally). American voters are seldom known for their sense of history...

No one can argue, as it stands.. and with the abuse scandal going on, huge numbers of Americans seriously questioning the Iraq war all together, Bush is in trouble.I would disagree, again, with that statement. As long as it is May, he has time to recover. Six months is a long time for other things to get into the voter's head. Say, gas prices going down drastically and a small boom in the economy (not even a large one - but large enough for a stock market rally). American voters are seldom known for their sense of history...

Hehe, I guess we are going to have to agree to disagree then. I believe the shift has already taken place. Since you're the one who brought up degrees.. I will have my Ph.D in less then a year in Political Science. I say Bush is done. All historical numbers would back up my assertions.. however, you never know, he could pull it off if Kerry screws up majorly.. or if some thing happens, like another terrorists attack on American soil for example, but short of some thing major.. Bush IS on his way out. Mark my words.. ;)

Dude I thought McCain was a Republican. But even at that I actually like the guy.

Dude I thought McCain was a Republican. But even at that I actually like the guy.McCain is one of those strange politicians who can't quite decide who he is actually affiliated with. Even when he picks a party, he never fully aligns with it.

I will have my Ph.D in less then a year in Political Science. Ahh, the evil science has claimed another victim! :lol: Believe me, I know your pain...

Dude I thought McCain was a Republican. But even at that I actually like the guy.

Thanks to steering us back to the topic, Cuneo! :)

He is Republican. That's what would cause such an uproar.
McCain denies he would do it, though.

Dude I thought McCain was a Republican. But even at that I actually like the guy.McCain is one of those strange politicians who can't quite decide who he is actually affiliated with. Even when he picks a party, he never fully aligns with it.

Well, I think after the way he was attacked by Bush's attack machine during the Republican race for the nomination.. I'm not all that surprised. However his core values are that of a moderate Republican. As opposed to the radicals that are now running the government. I think it has more to do with following what he believes rather then parroting the party line. I wince, but dare I say an honest politician is McCain? Perhaps one of the last few.

I like McCain. I think he's as honest as a politician can be, and I think by all rights, he should be president right now. If Rove and company hadn't played the racist push poll game in South Carolina in 2000, McCain would probably be sitting in the Oval Office cruising to reelection right now.

But I don't want him as Kerry's VP.

Here's why--the Senate is closely divided right now, and there's a very real chance that it could be tied again after the 2004 elections. Who holds the tie-breaking vote in the Senate? The VP. I don't want to have to worry about whether or not McCain is going to follow the will of his President or the will of his party if it comes to that. It's not good for him and it's not good for the country, and I respect the man too much to put him in that situation.

I wouldn't be opposed to McCain taking a place in Kerry's Cabinet, say, Secretary of Defense (especially since Arizona has a Democratic governor and we would pick up a seat there with McCain's replacement), but McCain shouldn't say yes if he's asked, and Kerry shouldn't ask him in the first place.

I'd so vote for those too.

My husband and I might go to a dinner that he's supposed to be at somewhere. If we can find one ya know, we've donated a lot to him.

Unfortunatly, John McCain would never run against his own party.

Then again, he was on Saturday Night Live once...

McCain is funny too, he is on the Daily Show alot, he isn't just funny for a politician, he is truly hillarious, he makes fun of democrats and republicans alike.