NationStates Jolt Archive

America arguably has an empire. Even though they don't own other nations, they accomplish the goal of having colonies quite easily.

1. They buy raw materials from other nations, and sell it back as finished products, or use other means of making huge amounts of money off them.
2. They have a network of military bases in strategic locations around the world (And they effectively control one of the two vital canals... Panama). I'm not completely sure, but the sun never sets on the American empire either. (US military bases are considered US soil.)

Now, traditionally an empire ends when it overextends itself and it's former conquests become free. So, when will it happen? Will the WOT influence it? Who will replace them?

I expect China will take the superpower throne some time in the next 20-50 years. The decline of the US will happen. Their hegemony is no more secure than any other superpower that ever reared its ugly head.

"This is the end.... My only friend, the end."

I can't see it happening anytime before 2024. More likely later than that.

America arguably has an empire. Even though they don't own other nations, they accomplish the goal of having colonies quite easily.

1. They buy raw materials from other nations, and sell it back as finished products, or use other means of making huge amounts of money off them.


Hmph sounds just like about every other nation. Ever look into what Japan is doing in Malaysia? Even in the US?


2. They have a network of military bases in strategic locations around the world (And they effectively control one of the two vital canals... Panama). I'm not completely sure, but the sun never sets on the American empire either. (US military bases are considered US soil.)


I doubt the Germans or the English are intimidated by our bases. The South Koreans are in debate. The old who remember the Korean war still want them around. The young want us gone. If the two countries can ever mend fences, they will tell us to get the hell out. It's slowly starting to happen as I last heard they are allowing relatives to visit each other now. Before, you were cut off....


Now, traditionally an empire ends when it overextends itself and it's former conquests become free. So, when will it happen? Will the WOT influence it? Who will replace them?

Overextention is part of the equation. Internal views are usually what lead to the downfall unless of course a newer more powerful force appears(for example the Phallanx of King Philip and later Alexander).

Simple answer to that question.

To fuel its dominance, the US sucks up vast quantities of energy resources. Its consumption of these resources is growing, while the world's ability to supply them is falling. Indeed, with natural gas, there are no feasible ways of importing sufficient quantites of it to prevent terminal shortages by the end of the decade.

Thus the decline of the US will be driven by fossil fuel supply capacity limits, which are kicking in now. Indeed, US natural gas reserves are in a pretty bad way, and it should have nationwide rotating blackouts every summer by 2010. Quite difficult to run a global empire when the lights won't stay on.

By 2020, the decline will be coming to an end and the fall beginning. Unless the US phases out cars and air conditioning. Talk of the Hydrogen Economy simply won't cut it.

America arguably has an empire. Even though they don't own other nations, they accomplish the goal of having colonies quite easily.

1. They buy raw materials from other nations, and sell it back as finished products, or use other means of making huge amounts of money off them.
2. They have a network of military bases in strategic locations around the world (And they effectively control one of the two vital canals... Panama). I'm not completely sure, but the sun never sets on the American empire either. (US military bases are considered US soil.)

Now, traditionally an empire ends when it overextends itself and it's former conquests become free. So, when will it happen? Will the WOT influence it? Who will replace them?Puerto Rico is a colony.

By their own choice :wink:

Puerto Rico is an island that doesn't want to become a state and doesn't want to be its own country.

Thus the decline of the US will be driven by fossil fuel supply capacity limits, which are kicking in now. Indeed, US natural gas reserves are in a pretty bad way, and it should have nationwide rotating blackouts every summer by 2010. Quite difficult to run a global empire when the lights won't stay on.


Hmph. Maybe that is why they want to export jobs to other countries! When the lights are out at home, the workers lights will still be on! :P

When it happens it happens. Just because the empire falls doesn't mean the nation will. The English empire is no longer around, yet the UK is still around.

America arguably has an empire.

Nope

Even though they don't own other nations, they accomplish the goal of having colonies quite easily.

Find a colony

1. They buy raw materials from other nations, and sell it back as finished products, or use other means of making huge amounts of money off them.

You mean trade? That would make us just as much a colony of theirs as vice versa.

2. They have a network of military bases in strategic locations around the world

Which we pay hefty sums for. We don't just occupy that land.

And they effectively control one of the two vital canals... Panama

We handed over control of that to Panama.

Now, traditionally an empire ends when it overextends itself and it's former conquests become free. So, when will it happen? Will the WOT influence it? Who will replace them?

Oh, this should be fun.

Thus the decline of the US will be driven by fossil fuel supply capacity limits, which are kicking in now. Indeed, US natural gas reserves are in a pretty bad way, and it should have nationwide rotating blackouts every summer by 2010. Quite difficult to run a global empire when the lights won't stay on.

Hmph. Maybe that is why they want to export jobs to other countries! When the lights are out at home, the workers lights will still be on! :P
Can't see the world wanting to keep money invested in a nation whose energy infrastructure is as reliable as that of India.

sorry, triple post.

sorry, triple post.

I expect China will take the superpower throne some time in the next 20-50 years. The decline of the US will happen. Their hegemony is no more secure than any other superpower that ever reared its ugly head.

I don't see China becoming the world superpower. I keep a close on world economics, and I have come to the conclusion that just too many things could go wrong. Right now, the Chinese government is working its butt of to slow the economy down so that onces things do slow down, it won't be a terribly hard landing. Stocks in Asian even tumbled today due to worry over the Chinese economy.

Still, the US can't hold the torch forever, but I highly doubt it will be passed to China.

The English empire is no longer around, yet the UK is still around.

What was this 'English Empire' of which you speak?

America arguably has an empire.

NopeWell, by saying that, you actually prove his statement right. Or are you saying it is unarguable that America has an empire? Not merely untrue, but actually unarguable.

The English empire is no longer around, yet the UK is still around.

What was this 'English Empire' of which you speak?At a guess he probably means the British Empire, but neglecting the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish people who built it as well.

I don't think the US 'empire' will ever decline, per se. By the time American dominance of the world is likely to wane, the current trend of globalization will have produced a large global alliance, likely more powerful and inclusive than organizations like the UN, NATO, or the EU. Now, I hope that Americans won't be so short sighted to allow the blatant disregard for world opinion to continue like it has under the Bush administration. Also, I hope that we will have repaired the breach between ourselves and the rest of the world to a point where we are allowed into such an organization. So, by the time that the American 'empire' is destined to fall, we will simply join the growing trend of world unification. I hope.

Thus the decline of the US will be driven by fossil fuel supply capacity limits, which are kicking in now. Indeed, US natural gas reserves are in a pretty bad way, and it should have nationwide rotating blackouts every summer by 2010. Quite difficult to run a global empire when the lights won't stay on.

Hmph. Maybe that is why they want to export jobs to other countries! When the lights are out at home, the workers lights will still be on! :P
Can't see the world wanting to keep money invested in a nation whose energy infrastructure is as reliable as that of India.

Ahh but they are changing that. I have been to Bangalore to set up an office. They want the business and are willing to spend the money to upgrade. For example, now they are spending a ton of money for paved roads going to the major cities! :shock:

The only time I found one complete freeway was on the road between New Delhi to Jaipor! Of course Japan built it for their tourists! ;)

I very much doubt the rest of the world will put up with US domination for too long, unless they completely change their policy, and start trying to be friends with the rest of the world.

Either the US will have to take drastic means to secure its hegemony, such as blatant invasion and occupation of other countries :? or a larger power will eventually appear, even if it takes the rest of the world a hundred years to put their differences aside.

Europe could be a contender, if it could overcome all the internal squabbling, and Southeast Asia also. I don't think any one individual country will do it, although the likes of China and Brazil are worth keeping an eye on.

I don't believe the US will fall through internal bickering, because its hard to imagine any state considering itself better off by seceding from the union.

I'd think the US exploits other nations a lot more than other nations exploit countries. Only other country would be Japan, or maybe China, who may replace America.

Macrohard-
The goal of the US 'Empire' and the British 'Empire' was to accomplish two things- Exploit other nations for profit, and use them as bases for military power. Brits did it. We just do it in a more 'PC' way.

Oh, and the thing about handing it over to Panama, if we tell them to cut off the canal to someone, think they're gonna say no?

My prediction? After the western world wastes the resources of the world, there will be a long period of time (Until someone can run a navy and airforce without petroleum) where nobody is really a superpower, or an empire.

My prediction? After the western world wastes the resources of the world, there will be a long period of time (Until someone can run a navy and airforce without petroleum) where nobody is really a superpower, or an empire.
I fully agree. A lot of people ask, if America's grip on the world loosens, what will replace it? The simple answer is, unless one looks deep into the long term, nothing. And there is nothing to say that anything has to. It will be a multipolar world with no state or alliance powerful enough to have that sort of dominance. And I think the world could use a break from imperialists of one sort or another taking turns dominating it.

Some legendary science/sci-fi guy (the name escapes me - Clarke? Sagan?) said that the Earth only has enough resources to give humanity a brief window to make one shot at spreading outwards through the cosmos, and that if the current civilisation fails to do it, then no civilisation will ever achieve this level of technology again, because the raw materials will simply not be there. The same limiting factor applies to empires. The more resources we consume, the more difficult the task facing any future imperial wannabe.

Indeed, there necessarily comes a point when resources are too scarce and diffuse to make the maintenance of a global empire possible. One day, regionalisation will replace globalisation as the hot topic of debate.

:idea:
Okay... Ive been following this conversation... and I think there is one thing that alot of us are not keeping in mind...

(if someone already mentioned what I am about to say.. I am sorry but I must have missed it then)

The United Nations

I have been listening and reading alot of commentary lately about the United Nations. There are those like Neal Boortz who feel the United Nations is a huge failure, waste of time, etc. There are some that feel that whatever country you belong to you are actually under the governance of the United Nations. I dont think that joining the United Nations (as it is currently formed) is saying that said country is under the sovereignty of the United Nations. The UN as its currently structured DOES have its problems. There is no doubt. But the over all idea/concept of the United Nations is not only brilliant... but it makes common sense.

I am going to sound like a total geek when I say this.. but I almost view what the UN could be as the same as Star Treks Federation of Planets. In fact... I would dare say that the UN should take a close look at the values and structure of that fictional organization (or is it? hmmmm) and begin to mold themselves after those concepts. Someday... we will all learn that we all share this planet together... as one... and we must also come to the realization that we must learn to govern it together as one. There are many things that present day society (in my opinion) could learn from the culture that exists within Star Trek. They have no currency (to me.. thats brilliant because I think money is the root of all evil and it motivates us all just so we can have more of it... where we should be motivated by learning new things... experiencing new things... growing as individuals... and our motivation is to better ourselves.. okay enough of that rant).

The present day UN is not perfect.. and change will not happen over night. But I believe in the concept of the UN.. and its possibilities. The first step is to get past the different religious, cultural and political barriers that exists within the UN. Only then can change begin and the UN take on the role it was truly meant for.

The English empire is no longer around, yet the UK is still around.

What was this 'English Empire' of which you speak?At a guess he probably means the British Empire, but neglecting the Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish people who built it as well.

:roll: Whatever. You know what I meant.

I disagree. The UN's failing is that it tries to include everyone, and ends up serving no-one. That or the dominant member.

I see the intermediate future as a weaker US, a stronger EU/Russia alliance and China in competition. With all the smaller players being variously ignored or crushed flat as per usual. This is in some ways the geopolitics of Orwell's 1984. But it's not such a bad thing.

For the UN to function harmoniously, the nations of the world would have to be a lot more equal in attitude and influence. Otherwise it is fatally unbalanced, as it has been since its creation. I can't see this changing for a few decades yet. If it is at all possible. Human nature being what it is . . .

Basically I think the US appears far more stronger than it really is. This is dangerous, because people are not aware of the decline, and when the collapse comes, it is wholly unexpected and chaos follows. Here is one scenario that can cause the collapse of the United States, or at least the democratic system:

Federal Government operates under defecit --> Prints more and more money to fund more international wars and/or national security projects --> Neglect of bad economic and social conditions worsen --> Inflation occurs --> Hyperinflation occurs --> Value of American dollar plummets --> World-wide shockwaves --> The people, already not content with the public health, education, and social security system, now coupled with galloping prices in every consumable good, are so discontent with the government that they riot --> Riots turn into revolution --> ...?

Piscea, your concept really reminds me of a sci-fi series I'm reading.

It predicts that by 2050 the world will be bankrupt with resources, and the UN nations are at tensions with Russia and America, who refuse to go along with their resource cutting programs. And then there's a war, washington gets bombed Baghdad style, and then some alien sh*t gets discovered on Mars and the moon and it basically goes pure sci-fi at that point.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that the US won't like getting pushed around by the UN, and they've shown they don't care what they say already... We keep getting Bushes for policy, and the UN goes like that, say hello WW3.

None of what I suggest is going to happen overnite by any means. They have lots of barriers to break aside from Americas and every other major power house... they gotta get past religious, political and cultural barriers first. It can happen. It must before its too late.

You know.... Im almost embarrassed that I posted my theory... not because I dont think its valid... or that it doesnt make common sense... I think because here I am comparing the UN to Star Trek! LOL

:roll: :D :lol:

1. I would have to agree.

2. However, especially with the coming induction of Russia into the Western nations' sanctuary, China will fall. I feel that their combination of strict totalitatrianism and social ignorance will result in collapse.

3.The EU will be an American ally, but absolutely not a puppet. They will be like the UK was in the mid-80's.

4. Also, America will not have that kind of economic collapse. We ran under deficits every year until the late 90's. Surpluses are fleeting and luxurious. Almost every nation that isn't barred from doings so spends on deficit, much as investors buy on margin. America will not allow its economy to tank so easily. Our integral part in the infrastructure of the world economy and huge amount of foreign loans mean that if we go down, everybody goes with us.