NationStates Jolt Archive

New Polls: President Bush Shows Tremendous Resiliency; Kerry Shows Fundamental Weakness

Despite pundit speculation that the President had been weakened over the course of the last month, the President’s ballot position has improved, he shows tremendous strength over Kerry on handling terrorism and Iraq and he has made significant gains on handling the other important issues of the day.

According to Gallup, the President holds a narrow lead over John Kerry. In yesterday's Gallup poll, the President leads John Kerry, 51% to 46%, among likely voters. Since the beginning of the general election race in early March, the President has gone from trailing Kerry by 8 points to leading him by 5—a net increase of 13 points. This turnaround is confirmed by yesterday's ABC News/Washington Post poll which shows the President going from trailing Kerry by 9 points in early March to leading him by 1 point, 49% to 48%.

The President’s job approval rating remains strong. In yesterday’s Gallup poll, 52% of Americans approve of the job President Bush is doing. This rating is in the same range as President Reagan’s 54% approval rating in April 1984 and President Clinton’s 56% approval rating in April 1996. This poll is also confirmed by the National Annenberg Election Survey which shows that the President’s approval rating at 53%, and yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll that shows the President’s approval rating at 51%.

Despite the recent violence in Iraq, Americans are firm in their support for the President’s policies. In yesterday’s Gallup poll, a majority of Americans, 57%, support the US sending troops to Iraq. A similar number, 58%, believe the recent events in Iraq mean the US should intensify its military efforts, not scale them back.

Americans are increasingly confident in President Bush’s leadership on the economy. In yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post poll, the President’s job approval on the economy increased by a net of 5 points since March and the number of Americans who say the economy is getting better increased by a net of 3 points. President Bush’s approval on the economy in yesterday’s Gallup poll increased to 46%, a net increase of 7 points since late March and exactly the same as President Clinton’s in the spring of 1996.

Voters have more confidence in President Bush on the important issues of terrorism and Iraq. The President has retained his commanding 21-point lead over Kerry on terrorism in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. Interestingly, President Bush has gone from trailing Kerry by 1 point on handling Iraq in early March to leading him by 11 points today.

In fact, as voters get to know John Kerry, they have less confidence in his ability to lead on the issues. Americans trust President Bush over John Kerry to handle the main challenges the nation will face by a margin of 49% to 44%, making for a net increase of 10 points since early March. On individual issues, the President now leads Kerry by 21 points on terrorism, 16 points on same-sex marriage, 11 points on Iraq, and 6 points on taxes.
http://www.georgewbush.com/images/poll042004.gif

The Bush-Cheney campaign has been successful at defining the race. In focus groups recently conducted in Florida, Ohio, and Oregon by Democracy Corps, swing voters cited the President’s resolve and steady leadership and saw John Kerry as indecisive and ready to raise taxes. Participants noted that:

“He [President Bush] performs well under pressure. You know, and he’s not afraid to make a tough decision”. (Florida, non-college educated man)

“He proved himself in a sticky situation and you don't know is this how the next person is going to handle it if it happens again, or something”. (Ohio, non-college educated woman)

“Participants could not point to any core convictions that defined Kerry.” Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg’s own analysis of the focus groups stated that voters were unable to cite Kerry’s basic principles. He also noted that “voters’ language reflected the [Bush] campaign’s assertions as many people said Kerry ‘flip flops’ on issues, is indecisive, and will raise taxes.” Individual participants also made the following comments:

“Well, he [Kerry] flips back and forth it seems. Initially, he was supposedly for us going to Iraq and now he’s screaming for us to get out of there.” (Oregon, college educated woman)

“I heard that in the past he has voted for a lot of tax raises.” (Florida, non-college educated woman)

"You got that vote for the taxes, the gasoline hike and now he switched back here. So, okay, where is he really on the gas hike?” (Ohio non-college educated woman)

Recent national polling confirms that Americans see John Kerry as unprincipled. In yesterday’s ABC News/Washington Post survey, 79% of Americans believe that President Bush “takes a position and sticks with it,” while just 41% say the same of Kerry. The President also leads Kerry by 8 points on the attribute of “always truthful in explaining his policies” and by 6 points on “is honest and trustworthy.”

the momentum is favoring Bush. Its all over for Kerry. The American public realize that nothing Kerry does defines who he is, he is just "not Bush."

John Kerry says, "A lot of people don't really know who I am."

Well, actually, a lot of people do.

Kerry’s hometown paper says, “In his continuing effort to be all things to all voters … John Kerry is engaging in a level of doublespeak that makes most voters wince.”

The Wall Street Journal said Kerry's tax plan “would mean increasing the tax burden again, which would likely kill the recovery."

On Iraq, The Washington Post said “Kerry’s attempts to weave a thread connecting and justifying [his] positions are unconvincing.”

The Union Leader says Kerry has “waffled” on historic education reforms he supported in 2001, but now opposes.

And the non-partisan National Journal magazine ranks Kerry the most liberal member of the Senate – more liberal than Hillary Clinton or Ted Kennedy.

John Kerry’s problem is not that people don’t know him.
It’s that people do.

Crazy me, I thought it was no where near over, I heard the election wasn't till November ;)

Crazy me, I thought it was no where near over, I heard the election wasn't till November ;)
And those polls that said Dean was a lock, or that...blah blah blah....polls are getting less and less accurate as time goes on.

I guess it is comforting for some people to call the race as soon as they get ahead. Whatever.

The way Iraq always is the lead into the nightly news, I do not see how Bush is gaining speed going into the summer. Iraq headlines dominate the news; but the economy is getting stronger, more people are getting jobs, and Kerry is viewed as flip-flopping.

The numbers show that Kerry's, and the traditional democratic, strengths are getting eaten away by Bush. Kerry only leads Bush by 4 points in Social security, health insurance by 6 points, and prescription drugs by only 3 points. If Kerry doesn't get an identity quick, it may be 4 more years of Bush.

who freaking cares what the polls say? This early in the year, they are not an accurate forcast...

Besides, the ones to really pay attention to are the polls applied to the electoral college.

We've been through this before. Anyone who starts getting exuberant or despondent about the polls today is in for a long and miserable summer. The fact is that the polls--all the polls--have had Bush somewhere between 46% and 51% for the last month, and have had Kerry in the exact same range for the same period. The only people really paying attention right now are the poli-geeks like me and a number of others who happen to populate this forum.

If someone is pulling away in late September or October, then I'll let my emotions get involved.

Gee..do you suppose this article was written by a Conservative?

It's April, for Christ's sake. Local elections haven't even happened yet. I'll start having interest in presidential polls in October.

Gee..do you suppose this article was written by a Conservative?
He used refrences to Reagan and Clinton, so who knows?

bump...

bump for what? It's still April, for crying out loud.

bump for what? It's still April, for crying out loud.
Kerry seems to be doing nothing but keeping to his defensive posture. if he keeps on, these polls look alot like the final results.

bump for what? It's still April, for crying out loud.
Kerry seems to be doing nothing but keeping to his defensive posture. if he keeps on, these polls look alot like the final results.Dude, we're on different sides, but this advice is for your own sanity. Don't look at polls now. Don't look at polls in May, June, July, August or September. Since the Republicans are having their convention in the early part of September this year, the poll numbers are going to be jittery as a virgin on prom night until about the third week in September at best, maybe until the early part of October. Getting het up about them any earlier is only going to get you an ulcer or worse. Bush will be up by 5-10 points and down by the same between now and then, probably more than once.

Dude, we're on different sides, but this advice is for your own sanity. Don't look at polls now. Don't look at polls in May, June, July, August or September. Since the Republicans are having their convention in the early part of September this year, the poll numbers are going to be jittery as a virgin on prom night until about the third week in September at best, maybe until the early part of October. Getting het up about them any earlier is only going to get you an ulcer or worse. Bush will be up by 5-10 points and down by the same between now and then, probably more than once.
I have no choice but to look at the polls. My expanded package is out with my cable and the cable co. is being assholes and saying {we'll get around to fixing it." Out of the 12 channels I have the only non-networks or CSPAN I recieve are VH1, CNN, CNNfn, HBO, and CMT.

And I am sick to death of "Remember the 80s"!!!

Dude, we're on different sides, but this advice is for your own sanity. Don't look at polls now. Don't look at polls in May, June, July, August or September. Since the Republicans are having their convention in the early part of September this year, the poll numbers are going to be jittery as a virgin on prom night until about the third week in September at best, maybe until the early part of October. Getting het up about them any earlier is only going to get you an ulcer or worse. Bush will be up by 5-10 points and down by the same between now and then, probably more than once.
I have no choice but to look at the polls. My expanded package is out with my cable and the cable co. is being assholes and saying {we'll get around to fixing it." Out of the 12 channels I have the only non-networks or CSPAN I recieve are VH1, CNN, CNNfn, HBO, and CMT.

And I am sick to death of "Remember the 80s"!!!

That's fair, but certainly you DO realize the polls at this point don't mean a whole lot.. I too watch them to follow trends.. but you certainly can't call the election, not just yet.. a lot of factors are still at play and we don't know how they will turn out. These factors, such as the economy, Iraq, National Security.. etc.. are still very much up in the air..

I had cable only because it was on when I moved into my apartment last September--when they cut it off a couple of months ago, I didn't get it hooked up again, and I've never regretted it.

Okay--watch the polls, but try not to read anything into them now and don't let them stress you out. We'll be screaming at each other over what they mean come October when they're actually relevant.

I had cable only because it was on when I moved into my apartment last September--when they cut it off a couple of months ago, I didn't get it hooked up again, and I've never regretted it.

Okay--watch the polls, but try not to read anything into them now and don't let them stress you out. We'll be screaming at each other over what they mean come October when they're actually relevant.I guess I'll have to contain myslef until October, unless I get DEATed before then.

The way Iraq always is the lead into the nightly news, I do not see how Bush is gaining speed going into the summer. Iraq headlines dominate the news...

If you have the time, check this out! (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1117142/posts) [i know that I spelled "press corps" wrong too.]

The way Iraq always is the lead into the nightly news, I do not see how Bush is gaining speed going into the summer. Iraq headlines dominate the news...

If you have the time, check this out! (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1117142/posts)

Well check it out if you wish, just know it's an extremely right-wing publication. The Free Republic is hardly known for it's objectiveness..lol :P

Bush riding a wave of popularity
Armstrong Williams
April 27, 2004 (http://www.townhall.com/columnists/Armstrongwilliams/aw20040427.shtml)


Coming off the worst week of his presidency - a week that included renewed violence in Iraq, claims by former terrorism czar Richard A. Clarke that the administration rushed to war in Iraq and intense scrutiny at home from the 9-11 commission - President Bush's poll numbers remain steady.

So says a recent news poll conducted by The Washington Post and ABC News, which reported that the president's approval rating remained at 51 percent, unchanged from five weeks ago. The poll revealed eroding support for Democratic challenger John Kerry, as well as overwhelming faith in the president's ability to rebuild Iraq and lead the war on terror - twin issues that half of the respondents ranked as the most important going into the election. Two-thirds of the respondents said the United States should remain in Iraq until order is restored and more than 60 percent approved of how the president is handling the war on terror.

The implications are profound. The poll proclaims that Americans are willing to stick it out in Iraq, despite rising casualties. It says they understand that this is an opportunity to change the basic problem of tyranny and poverty in the Middle East. Bush's steady approval rating, while in the midst of the bloodiest month since the U.S.-led invasion began in March 2003, reinforces the depth of his support and strongly suggests that he's going to be around for a while. Plainly, if a hundred U.S. combat deaths in April can't shake the president's popularity, it is unlikely that anything between now and November will.

That is a good thing. Because the only alternative would be to admit failure and tuck tail and run. That would reinforce the popular view abroad that America is a soft giant, unable or unwilling to defend its own interests. Surely that message would energize an entire generation of terrorists to take the war to us. The bombing in Madrid should be instructive here. Social division at home will only encourage attacks from abroad.

We cannot forget that there has not been a single terrorist attack on U.S. soil since this administration began taking it to the terrorists in earnest. We are winning this war. Building a pluralistic, democratic Iraq will create the sort of strong economic ties that restrain future war. For the first time in 50 years, we have the chance to turn the Middle East into something other than an anti-American incubator of hate.

This is a historic opportunity. So it would be nice if the Democrats who voted for this war would ease off of the Vietnam comparisons. Russia is not funneling funds and soldiers into Iraq. There is no overwhelming groundswell of support for the guerilla fighters. The Iraqi insurgents cannot stalemate indefinitely. They will fall and it will likely be soon. Perhaps Kerry doesn't get that. Thankfully the American people do.

One last note on the topic of popular opinion. More than one columnist has chortled at the president's belief in God. They use his faith as a pretext to suggest that the president spares himself the rigors of closely examining complex issues in Iraq, opting instead to plow blindly - faithfully - forward. This isn't informed comment, its religious prejudice and a shortcut to thinking. The war on terror and the rebuilding of Iraq are serious issues that affect millions. It would be nice if the liberals could contribute something other than anti-religious rhetoric.