NationStates Jolt Archive

Is it likely the Conservatives will win?
What will effect the outcome?
Will Labour still have an absolute majority?
Will Blair still be PM?

im preparing a knoose for myself if tony.B liar stays in

Can I join?

Realistically he may though, although the last time the polls were this close Major(Con.) won.

In all likelihood, Blair will once again be Prime Minister. Considering there has been a major terror bust recently, this is likely to give him a much-needed poll jolt.

(And I'm not British, I'm a pro-Blair Yank)

Sorry for being ignorant of the facts.

Is it likely that the conservatives will win?

I met Mr. Howard (i believe he is now head of the loyal opposition) back in the 80s when i was temporily assigned to the British fleet. We were in a civilian political meeting, and after sharing my perspecitve someone called me a "cowboy", and "crackers".

I quickly learned that the american brand of conservative is very different than the british brand.

the cowboy i take as a badge of honor (since i grew up on a ranch and was in fact a cowboy--some of us still practice that modified code derived from Spanish chivalry), but i think crackers was meant to be taken as an insult. ;)

:)

Good luck on your upcoming elections.

Well, there is of course another option. Unlike the American system it is not unheard of in the UK for Blair's party to vote him out as leader of the party come the convention even though he's a sitting incumbent. We all know that he has become quite unpopular even within his own party, not to mention with the people. So, it is an option that might also happen.

If he had lost the first readin on the top up fees bill their would, most likely have been a confidance vote. The problem at the moment is that Brown isn't doing anything, which means the party is unite as the heads of it appear to be.

I doubt that the Conservatives will get in. They need a 14% swing just to get a one seat majority. So I think it is doubtful that Howard will ever be PM. I think the next election will result in Labour losing its landslide majority but staying in power, with the Lib-Dems and Conservatives making considerable gains (and, I hope the Lib-Dems get far more MPs than they already do).

If he had lost the first readin on the top up fees bill their would, most likely have been a confidance vote. The problem at the moment is that Brown isn't doing anything, which means the party is unite as the heads of it appear to be.

Did anyone hear about Brown planning to move to the IMF? If that happens I think Labour are pretty much screwed, because if Brown goes I cannot think of a likely, able successor to Blair (Prescott :shock: ?). But then again I'm hardly an expert on the Labour Party.

If Prescott becomes leader of Labour, I think they stand no chance of election, I can't help but think the media hate him.

Tony Blair is not going to be voted out by his own party, he's possibly their most successful PM ever given the size of their election victories and whilst he may not be particularly popular amongst his back benchers he's survived top up fees, foundation hospitals, the war in Iraq and the Hutton inquiry I fail to see why he might get voted out now, particularly when there is virtually no-one calling for him to do so. (Clare Short doesn't count). Regardless whether or not you agree with his policies, his personal skills make him labours biggest asset.

Looking at the polls Labour still have a comfortable lead and I think Tony Blair still has a lot more support than most people seem to think. I can see nothing other than a Labour victory in the coming election (well the one in just under 2 years time), they have successfully occupied the centre ground of politics now and neither the Tories nor the Lib Dems seem able to capitalise on the dissent among various sections of the public.

Burcemia had better go and get himself some rope.