NationStates Jolt Archive

To: Members of the NationStates United Nations
Re: Repeal of the "40 Hour Workweek"

As of 10:30 P.M. EST, the Pilot United Nations News Service has issued the following projection:
We are now ready to project that the current resolution before the United Nations, the Repeal of U.N. Resolution #59 "The 40 Hour Workweek" will fail, by a percentage of 52% to 48%. This prediction is based upon comprehensive vote analysis backed by historical trends and inside polling.
PUNNS projections have a five percentage point margin of error.

Since being formed in late 2002, the Pilot United Nations News Service has correctly projected seventeen out of twenty-two resolutions. Most recently, it correctly projected the passage of U.N. Resolution #82 "Stem Cell Research Funding", but incorrectly projected its final percentages.

These have become some of my favorite posts! :)

I honestly hope the PUNNS is correct once again.

~EBN Intergalactic News Broadcast~
I'm Mary Bragglestein and you're watching the Enigma Bragging Network.

Today, a DLE-based group called Cheap Ripoff Of PUNNS, or CROPUNNS, has announced its prediction on the current repeal being voted on by the UN. It has predicted the repeal will pass 52% in favor to 48% opposed.

The entire scientific community of the Empire has called into question the methods used by CROPUNNS. CROPUNNS creates its predictions by making a dartboard with proportions of pass versus fail equal to the current voting division. Then, 1000 people from the street are kidnapped, gotten drunk, and forced to throw darts at the dartboard. The number of hits per voting option are counted up and divided into percentages. Of course, only darts that actually hit the board count. Scientists accuse this method of being unscientific, though there is not evidence CROPUNNS is relying on science for its methods.

Dictator Enigma has stated a public apology to PUNNS over the name and methods of CROPUNNS, but feels the unscientific methods used by the group represent those who do not wish to rely on scientific evidence, such as those working for PUNNS and all of its supporters, accurately.

And now, back to poking fun at the leaders of random nations.
~End Transmission~

OOC: Yes, I actually throw darts at a dartboard to get my figures for CROPUNNS. It's not my fault I throw darts like a drunken man.

Thought I would share this, as it supports DLE's claims

~From the AP News~

Ambassador Crag made an emergency return to AP for the treatment of wounds recieved while in the Dead Zone.

Apparently the Ambassador and a mistress were taken off the street while oggling an anti-matter propelled transport vehicle. While looking into the window, the door opened and the couple were forced inside from behind by two unseen assailents.

Injuries were recieved when the Ambassador, in an inubriated state, passed out while reciting his favorite drinking song, show me the way to go home. The way, it turned out, was by landing on a pile darts, puncturing his left lung.

After an emergency surgery the Ambassador is doing well; and holds no ill-will toward his captors. In fact, he is now advocating social research reform within the Empire, Stating: "There is no better way to fulfil your civic duty than to be drunk while doing it." The battle cry is garnering immense public support.

Anti Pharisaism Associated Press

To: Members of the NationStates United Nations
Re: Repeal of the "40 Hour Workweek"

As of 10:30 P.M. EST, the Pilot United Nations News Service has issued the following projection:

PUNNS projections have a five percentage point margin of error.

Since being formed in late 2002, the Pilot United Nations News Service has correctly projected seventeen out of twenty-two resolutions. Most recently, it correctly projected the passage of U.N. Resolution #82 "Stem Cell Research Funding", but incorrectly projected its final percentages.

Well, 52-48 is well within the margain of error. I'm putting it in my 'too close to call' column, but with a gut feeling that it will pass.

Methinks it will pass because of the lemming vote.

Limits work time? Hardly, they are limited to an 80 hour work week... the resolution simply states that an employer can't force them to work more then 40...... A worker can work as long as he likes as long as the employer is willing to pay..... 80 hours a week is nuts, thats 16 hours a day in a 5 day week...... No one needs to work that long.... This simply protects the workers right not to be forced into working 12 hours a day.

I predict this resolution will pass... unfortantaly.....

To: Members of the NationStates United Nations
Re: Repeal of the "40 Hour Workweek"

Saturday Night Report, 10:30 PM EST

As PUNNS originally predicted, the trend toward "Against" for this proposal continues to come into shape. Early on Friday morning, the amount of votes in favor of the resolution outnumbered votes against by a count of 1,054. Just this morning, that ratio was widened to about twelve hundred votes. However, this afternoon, the votes against received a major boost, sliming the margin to about two hundred. For several hours tonight, our monitoring teams have watched that playing field narrow in between the range of thirty to forty votes. While the resolution would still pass if voting ended right now, we predict that another serge of votes will occur gradually overnight. Our forecasting models show a similar margin of around two hundred votes by Sunday daybreak. Our original prediction called for a margin against passing the resolution by 52% to 48%, however, it looks like it will shape up to be an extreamly close 51% to 49%, or even less.

We will continue to monitor the voting and will issue further reports if conditions warrant.

~ PUNNS Press Office Director Micheal Fox

"Against" seems to have pulled ahead . . .

. . . finally. :rolleyes:

Votes For: 8,330
Votes Against: 9,135

It would seem that the PUNNS prediction has presently formed itself rather well, with 53.5% leveling votes against the repeal, with a significant chance that the levelling of a vote by the Pacific delegate FOR (which has somewhat of a possibility) would bring the numbers into direct alignment with estimated values. A truly impressive display of precision, no matter the outcome, and another clear mark for PUNNS accuracy. Truly impressive.

Methinks it will pass because of the lemming vote.Hmmm, the U.N. needs a cliff me-thinks ...

>.>

<.<

* Yes, this is looking bloody accurate indeed at this rate, O_o

Methinks it will pass because of the lemming vote.
Heh. Monkey see monkey do and all that.

So how does this PUNNS thing actually work? This is the first time I've seen it.

To: Members of the NationStates United Nations
Re: Repeal of the "40 Hour Workweek"

Sunday Morning Report, 9:30 PM EST

Our monitoring team has observed a large number of nations and delegates that voted against the original resolution now voting against its repeal. That is the reason we are seeing a 1,200+ margin against passing the repeal instead of the 200+ that PUNNS has originally projected. However, it is clear now that, barring a similar shift toward the "Favor", this repeal cannot mathematically pass.

If the percentages are to stay near the same levels they are at now, this will be PUNNS third most accurate projection. It is only the first resolution that was projected to fail when the voting tallies showed a largin margin in favor of passing the resolution.

How the hell does he do it????

So this is indeed the first time any resolution has switched voting stances?

Holy cow, all those telegrams did pay off... :) :D

How the hell does he do it????

So this is indeed the first time any resolution has switched voting stances?

Holy cow, all those telegrams did pay off... :) :D

No, it's happened before. Most notably on the resolution the current resolution is trying to repeal. In the last 10 seconds, my (Europe's) delegate changed votes. His 83 votes were enough to swing the result in the other direction. Just goes to show that every vote really does count!

It's probably be a study of how the major delegates go. I think this shift against is the delegates who hold regional polls coming down against.

Pixiedance, delegate of The North Pacific has gone against. I think this will come down to individual delegate votes.

To: Members of the NationStates United Nations
Re: Repeal of the "40 Hour Workweek"

For those of you wondering, the first initial shift against this resolution came from a delegate shift. At 10:13 PM, Advanced Weaponry, holding 20 votes, shifted a 32 vote positive favoring the repeal to a 12 vote against the repeal. Sicne then, the votes against the repeal have received major bolsters from Star City, The Shaft, Berhamphore and 1 Infinite Loop. Those five are the major reasons why this resolution will fail.

Aha... then the telegrams paid off indeed.

Thanks, Myrth.

For reference:

Star City is the delegate of The Proletariat Coalition. It was pretty much a foregone conclusion that said region would vote against.

The Shaft, Berhampore, 1 Infinite Loop, and Pixiedance are delegates of the large feeder regions and determine their UN votes via polls on their respective regional fora.

I have no clue how the delegate from Unlimited determines his UN vote.

Lord Michael Evif
UN Ambassador
The People's Free State of Bawlmer

To: Members of the NationStates United Nations
Re: Repeal of the "40 Hour Workweek"

For the eighteenth time out of twenty-three projections, PUNNS has accurately projected the path of "The 40 Hour Workweek" repeal. Our original projection called for a 52% to 48% margin, with a five percentage point error mark; The actual totals were 54.4% to 45.6% - well within that range.

On record, this is our sixth most accurate projection and the second projection made when the resolution had a margin of 2,000+ votes in favor of the opposite outcome than our prediction.

The statistical lingo is bloody amazing. But more to the point, all the telegrams and posts against the repeal paid off :p (I would have been pissed off if they hadn't - spent a fair bit of time on those!) :cool:

No, it's happened before. Most notably on the resolution the current resolution is trying to repeal. In the last 10 seconds, my (Europe's) delegate changed votes. His 83 votes were enough to swing the result in the other direction. Just goes to show that every vote really does count!

Ooooh! CONSPIRACY!!!

How the hell does he do it????

So this is indeed the first time any resolution has switched voting stances?

Holy cow, all those telegrams did pay off... :) :D

First, I'm doublely pleased. My government likes to see the PUNNS reports and of course was opposed to this repeal.

As for how Pilot does it, in the past Pilot has explained that their news service actually sends out random telegrams. I think you can also look at past voting patterns and observe the feeder region debates to get a pretty good feel for how NationStates will behave as an ensemble.

Wow, nice work PUNNS. I had hoped you were wrong, but you did it again!