NationStates Jolt Archive

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"We'd like to see a rival bid"
Krytenia-Rennidan bid thread

You wanted it. Even they wanted it. Now we deliver. The alternative option to Krytenia-Rennidan. Who hosts? You decide.

About the bidders

Kura-Pelland are bidding to host their second World Cup after WC38 (with Vephrall). The user would become the first five-time host in World Cup history, having also hosted three times as Kaze Progressa (WC12 with Lemmitania, WC17 with Vilita, WC25 with Audioslavia), as whom he also devised the KPB ranking system (with Bedistan, user now RPs as Vephrall). He pioneered the use of ranking points over sequential ranks for scorination purposes (WC12) and the use of style modifiers in the World Cup (WC25).

Candelaria And Marquez are bidding to host their first World Cup. They are presently hosting the 7th Di Bradini Cup for under-21 teams, and have also hosted a Cup of Harmony.

Scorination mechanics

In a return to World Cup roots, this bid will use a spreadsheet for scorination. Why do that in an age of NSFS? Simple. It's easier to transfer an .xls document around and use it on multiple computers than it is to do the same for NSFS. That allows scorination on computers other than the main PC of the scorinator, such as a university library, with far less hassle, and hence more reliable schedule-keeping even in worse-case scenarios. It has also been proven in daily scorination of the CMSC (although NSFS is now used, the principle remains).

The formula will be based on that CMSC spreadsheet formula (which in turn is a modification of the WC25 formula, which itself was the basis for NSFS's default formula), although some modifications may be made to adjust to the unique circumstances of Valanora's publically-expressed unease at his elven hegemony. Full disclosure of tests, including theoretical probability of outcomes, will be revealed before 0100 UTC on the 27th.

RP bonus will be based upon the three previous matchdays, with the most recent RPs rated most heavily. It will be set at a level such that a heavily-RPing newbie fresh from a Baptism of Fire run will play roughly equivalently to a non-RPing mid-ranked side. This makes first-time qualifying almost impossible but allows active RPers to make an impact right away (allowing a realistic qualification shot next time around especially with a good CoH run in between), and also means that RPing will have a significant impact across the rankings. This formula is copied unedited from World Cup 38.

Style modifiers will be present, with a range to be determined based upon testing.

Format and timing

The preference is for groups of at most eight teams.

In a fun symbolic move that should not be taken as politically motivated, the finals are tentatively scheduled to start on January 20, Inauguration Day. This is due to the happy coincidence of there being as many NSWCs as there are Presidents (Obama will be the 44th, in case you didn't know). Qualification will likely start around New Year, such that the final qualification matches (which may or may not be playoffs) take place on January 17. This is all as tentative as post-2000 network projections, though.

Fun stuff

Stadia will be actual proper unique designs that aren't RL stadia. As for other fun, that's a guarantee with any WC. Especially a well-RPed one.

Kind-of-tentative (read: not really tentative at all) endorsement from C&M's CoH co-hosts from WC42.

Testing at the world-renowned Margaret Institute for Sports Research at the University of Fariynuff has produced the following findings for the beta version of the WC44 scorinator:

* The average goals-per-game is 2.4, plus or minus 0.2628 goals per point of style modifier. A home-team effect of +1 on the style modifier is automatically activated, which is primarily to ensure (probably realistically) the Proper is a bit lower-scoring than qualification. The style modifier range is suggested to be +5 to -5, meaning two +5 style teams would average about five goals per game.

* A 'safety mechanism' ensures every team has at least the slimmest chance to score (0.1% for each of twelve 'attacks' in the formula). This serves two purposes: no team is guaranteed a win, ever; no game is ever guaranteed to be goalless. (Between two evenly matched -5 teams, there is a 2.37% chance of the game producing a goal. But teams never seem to like negative style modifications anyway.)

* In a match between Valanora and a newb, assuming no RP bonus or style modifications, Valanora will win a little under 95% of the time; this increases to around 96% with maxed-out RP bonus. More attacking style modifiers have no real effect, although they increase the likelihood of a greater winning margin.

* In a match between Valanora and teen-ranked Ad'ihan, Valanora wins at home about 72% of the time, Ad'ihan winning about 9% of the time. On neutral ground (i.e. in the Proper) that changes to 59% and 16%, and in Ad'ihan that becomes 50% and 25%. RP bonus helps Ad'ihan a bit more than Valanora. Attacking style modifiers makes the weaker side more likely to pull an upset, but not by very much at all: if both sides played all-out-attack Ad'ihan would have a 30% chance of winning at home, but would maintain their 50% chance of losing and that defeat would be more likely to be heavy. With Valanora at home their win percentage drops to 67% and Ad'ihan's rises to 17%, but Valanora have a 21% chance of knocking in at least five and an almost 6% chance of winning by five.

* In a match between a non-RPing newb and a typical BoF side with max RP bonus, the latter wins at home 60% of the time (losing 16%); without that RP bonus that becomes 46% and 28%. Away from home, the RPer wins 53% of the time and loses 22% of the time; sans bonus, those numbers would be 41% and 31%. Similar impact with style mods.

What about a match beytween a Non Rping newb and a respected top 40 team.

*checks out the numbers*

Get ready, because we're about to make a projection!

*CNN election music*

And we can project that the mid-ranked team would win approximately 63% of the time at home, losing 14% of the time. Away from home, those numbers change to 55% and 20%.

A small RP bonus for the top-40 team will improve those numbers by about 2% in their favour, a maximal RP bonus would increase win percentage by double digits.

I was voting for you eiither way

Is the government of Candelaria And Marquez still trying to conceal the existence of sapient non-humans from its people? If so, then how would it cope with the arrival of an Ursine team (or a team from any other non-human people) to play a match in one of its stadia?

C&M have their own... canny ways of dealing with this problem. They've already had non-human teams play against them at home, but how they'll deal with this is anyone's guess.

Of course the actual scorination will be unaffected, but there will be IC stuff about this, I'm sure...

Is the government of Candelaria And Marquez still trying to conceal the existence of sapient non-humans from its people? If so, then how would it cope with the arrival of an Ursine team (or a team from any other non-human people) to play a match in one of its stadia?

Sir,

May I first take the trouble to thank you for a question which did not involve faintly sinister numerical jiggery-pokery, and which the CAMAFA – in our role as the Tess Daly to Kura-Pelland’s Brucie – can make a realistic fist of answering without first entering into an altered state.

Equally, apologies for the delay in responding, caused by… er… adverse weather conditions, and… um…

Anyway, the confederated clans can rest assured that Candelaria And Marquez is as open and tolerant a nation as one could wish for, and that – in the admittedly unlikely event of a qualification this time around by Bea… um… by your nation – the travelling footballers and supporters would be welcomed with open arms, providing – as always – they respected locals laws and customs wherever possible.

Should the stars aline, we might need to have a private talk about blankets, at some point, and the merits of closely-cropped hair during the sweltering Candelariasian Spring, but such things can wait.

Yours in respectful terror,

Mamdooh Momtaz
An Official Bid Ambassador for KPC&M44

OOC: Heh! Well, we'll see (or not)...

Ok, If i'm reading things right, Valanora would basically walkover everyone. Even in an example of a mid-teens ranked Team Z was a +5 and had a Max RP bonus, while Valanora was a -5 and no RP bonus, Valanora would still win about (overall) 60-70% of the time no matter where the game was played.

Wrong.

I shall detail the exact situation you describe. Valanora with a -5 style modifier and no RP bonus, Ad'ihan (as example of team in the mid-teens) +5 with max RP bonus.

Valanora do win 60-70% (66%) of the time at home, but away that drops to just 41%, with a 32% chance of defeat. On neutral ground, Valanora would have a 52% chance of winning in 90 minutes and a 22% chance of losing in 90 minutes, and that's before you account for the higher RP bonus planned for the Proper.

And to win the tournament again, Valanora would have to overcome probably four opponents at least this highly ranked. They would be by no means shoo-ins for the title.

Wrong.

I shall detail the exact situation you describe. Valanora with a -5 style modifier and no RP bonus, Ad'ihan (as example of team in the mid-teens) +5 with max RP bonus.

Valanora do win 60-70% (66%) of the time at home, but away that drops to just 41%, with a 32% chance of defeat. On neutral ground, Valanora would have a 52% chance of winning in 90 minutes and a 22% chance of losing in 90 minutes, and that's before you account for the higher RP bonus planned for the Proper.

And to win the tournament again, Valanora would have to overcome probably four opponents at least this highly ranked. They would be by no means shoo-ins for the title.

I stand corrected. :$

Bumping this thread upon confirmation that the bid has been successful.

Thanks to all 16 who voted for us!

More details will be added soon including stadium details.

World Cup 44 Stadia in Candelaria And Marquez (and Green Island, to be completely accurate, but let’s not worry about that).


The Big Ol’ Map of the Candelarias (http://i176.photobucket.com/albums/w175/candelariaandmarquez/candelarias3.png)



Albrecht (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Albrecht) (South-east Candelaria) ~ Solidarity Stadium (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Albrecht_Turkish#Home_stadium) ~ cap. 66,200
Opening ceremony, one Group A game, two Group B games, second round match, semi-final

http://i26.tinypic.com/9i4h34.png

Allemali (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Allemali) (South-east Candelaria) ~ New Sausages Arena (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Candelaria-Allemali#Home_stadium) ~ cap. 46,208
One Group A game, two Group B games, quarter-final match

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Caires (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Caires) (North-east Candelaria) ~ Storie Park (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Caires_City#Home_stadium) ~ cap. 40,144
One Group B game, two Group A games, second round match

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Rose of Sharon (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Rose_of_Sharon) (North-east Candelaria) ~ The White Palace (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=KT_Hotspur#Home_stadium) ~ cap. 41,472
One Group A game, two Group B games

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Arrigo (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Arrigo) (West Coast Marquez) ~ Estadio Arrigo Nacional (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Arrigo_Portuguese#Home_stadium) ~ cap. 50,138
One Group D game, two Group C games, second round match, third-place play-off match

http://i40.tinypic.com/2crrk21.png

El din (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=El_din) (West Coast Marquez) ~ The Marble Ground (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=El_din_Marbles#Home_stadium) ~ cap. 40,052
One Group D game, two Group C games

http://i44.tinypic.com/jkva5z.png

Onwere (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Onwere) (South Marquez) ~ La Escalera Naranja (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Marquez-Onwere#Home_stadium) ~ cap. 56,512
One Group C game, two Group D games, quarter-final match

http://i41.tinypic.com/qqrho5.png

Zapata (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Zapata) (Green Island) ~ Marlow Park (http://www.nswiki.net/index.php?title=Green_Island_(football_club)#Home_stadium) ~ cap. 40,144
One Group C game, two Group D games, second round match

http://i44.tinypic.com/9puovn.png

ok. Know right before the end of qualifying with all rps put in what are the chances of each of these happening.

I beat West Zirconia
Sarz beats Val
both happen
Both dont
I win he loses.
And whats the chances that Kos will beat adi and advance.

Don't think it would be appropriate for the hosts to give this information now at all.

okay how about after the games. I just want to know what the possibilities of each event happenng were...

ok. Know right before the end of qualifying with all rps put in what are the chances of each of these happening.

I beat West Zirconia
Sarz beats Val
both happen
Both dont
I win he loses.
And whats the chances that Kos will beat adi and advance.

I don't think that the hosts had in mind odds calculators when they made their scorinator.

Anyway, the confederated clans can rest assured that Candelaria And Marquez is as open and tolerant a nation as one could wish for, and that – in the admittedly unlikely event of a qualification this time around by Bea… um… by your nation – the travelling footballers and supporters would be welcomed with open arms, providing – as always – they respected locals laws and customs wherever possible.
Hah! Here we come... ;)