NationStates Jolt Archive

Election 2008: Kura-Pelland Decides

Preview

Since the Trilan terrorist attack, the National Democrats have been given power unrivalled in the short history of the Unified Democratic Republic of Kura-Pelland. Security and prosperity was gained, but at the expense of widespread social inequality and infringed civil liberties. The National Democrats have recently suffered significant Parliamentary defeats, however, and some of their flagship policies have been overturned by their own Liberal Party coalition partners, who are now widely expected to gain power in this election. But will the National Democrats’ plea for stability and their play to terrorist threats have any impact in the new political environment? And can the Workers’ Party carry opposition to the flat tax all the way to office? And then there’s the Morality Party’s Christian conservatism, and the Green Party’s paranoid brand of environmentalism – with a coalition likely to be required, could their views make the difference?

The electoral system

Members of Parliament are elected by constituency and on a national list. There are 125 three-member constituencies, voted for using a modified Borda count where only the first five preferences count; each party can have up to two representatives stand in each constituency and to increase proportionality a 25% penalty is incurred on the less popular of the two. An additional 126 seats are elected on a closed party list system, on a separate ballot, but again the modified Borda count (this time with a three-preference limit) is used, and the resultant Borda points tally is used as the number of ‘votes’ in the d’Hondt formula. There is no ‘top-up’ principle – these seats are entirely separate. This system is roughly the Japanese model with the Borda count implemented instead of plurality voting, and the intention is to ensure a degree of proportionality and diversity while maintaining local MPs and a broadly centrist executive.

It failed on the last case when the post-attack elections returned a majority for the National Democrats, who promptly ruled with what was terrifyingly close to an iron fist at times. An initially favourable populace slowly turned against the party, but economic prosperity – and a divided Liberal Party – ensured a second term, this time in coalition government with the Morality Party and the CapitaliZt Party. That, however, became a minority government when the Liberal Party and the Workers’ Party each won special elections in seats vacated by the deaths of two elder National Democrat MPs. The coalition could not hold, and when the Farmers’ Party and Noorde Nationale refused to offer support Andrew McCauley decided he would seek a mandate and call an election. It is expected to be his last act in power – a Liberal victory is almost assured, or so it seems…

The key issues

Taxation. Obviously. The flat tax is hated to the point of nearly causing riots, and the nearly is because of the well-funded (some say oppressive) police. The National Democrats will try and turn this into a referendum on the flat tax, the Workers’ Party will do the same for the opposite reasons, and the Liberals – and others – will probably quietly oppose it while trying as best they can to look business-friendly. The Liberals have settled on ‘tax cuts for the poor, no tax increases for the rich’, and the Morality Party will likely call for sin taxes.

Education. The National Democrats have tried and failed to cut spending in this area – it’s about all they have failed at – and their new trick is to privatise schools, starting with ‘failing’ schools. The Workers’ Party say the privatised schools will teach a capitalist doctrine, and call for a universal national curriculum, which the National Democrats claim is state-sponsored propaganda, which the Workers’ Party say is hypocrisy. The Liberals prefer to stay out of this and focus on spending reform, although as they’ve opposed most National Democrat plans they’re vulnerable to an attack here, while the Morality Party are tied up in their usual knots about religious and sex education.

Media ownership. The National Democrats want unfettered private ownership, the Workers’ Party say NTV must be renationalised and tight controls should be inflicted on major media congolomerates, the National Democrats say the Workers’ Party want a propaganda network, the Workers’ Party say the National Democrats already have one. The Liberals want NTV renationalised with a clause emphasising strict political neutrality. The Morality Party want tighter regulation on sex, swearing and violence, and say that NTV should be nationalised if they fail to deliver on that promise. The Noorde Nationale Partij (NNP) are calling for a guarantee of Dutch-language television and radio coverage nationwide – at present, NTV operates in both languages in Noorde (and in Italian in Sudesti) but nowhere else (there are also Dutch and Italian privately-owned media companies in the appropriate regions).

National security. This is how the National Democrats got into power and they’re staying there with it if they can: as they’d put it, under the last administration there was an attack, under this one there has not been. ‘Emergency’ powers have been renewed and the National Democrats want them to be permanent; the Liberals have called for immediate repeal and the Workers’ Party for a review. The Morality Party support most of the powers, but also call for a review.

The parties

National Democrats

Leader: Andrew McCauley
Heartland regions: Wealthy rural areas especially near Lake Branagh and Trilan, some big-city suburbs, the northern Pelland peninsula
Last election: 204 MPs (152 constituency MPs, 52 party list MPs)
Currently: 202 MPs (-2 constituency MPs)

Formerly a just-right-of-centre party whose core values were pragmatism, stability and respect for business. Then came the Trilan attack and they swiftly metamorphosed into a solidly authoritarian-right party, bordering on fascist at first before moderating. With the help of a supportive/paranoid media, they won a majority in subsequent elections, and some of their key policies – in particular the flat income tax – have not been overturned despite fierce opposition in some quarters.

Key manifesto pledges: New powers for police to tackle violent crime, replacement of the ‘confusing’ electoral system with a simpler plurality model, agricultural reform, trade sanctions with Lovisa
What they’ll be targeting: Clinging onto power by remaining the largest party and arguing to death that a coalition without the largest party is undemocratic.
How they can do it: Making the country fear almost every other party. Except that would mean that any combination bar a National Democrat-Morality coalition would never happen, and the other parties would probably fall over themselves to create a coalition that excluded the National Democrats.

Liberal

Leader: Charley Olsen
Heartland regions: Inner cities, Sudesti
Last election: 127 MPs (91 constituency MPs, 36 party list MPs)
Currently: 128 MPs (+1 constituency MP)

Charley is looking to become the first female leader of Kura-Pelland. That she’s a telegenic blonde isn’t hurting, if only because it gives certain media a shallow reason to stop any National Democrat love-in. The party have started to unite around populist just-right-of-centre economic policies after being almost literally torn apart by economics in the past between a liberal-socialist wing and a libertarian wing. They are unified in their disdain for the ‘politics of fear’ practised by the National Democrats with regard to terrorism, and that holds them together.

Key manifesto pledges: Tax cuts on earnings under K50,000 ($38,000) and no tax increases on earnings above that ceiling; repeal of all National Democrat-instigated counter-terrorism legislation; reform of education spending; shorter prison sentences and no new jails to be built
What they’ll be targeting: Becoming the largest party is not so much targeted as demanded – a majority would be great but most unlikely.
How they can do it: Present themselves as the party who will undo the illiberalism of the National Democrats while respecting their economic success

Workers’ Party

Leader: Robert Cottee
Heartland regions: cities on the industrial west coast
Last election: 103 MPs (80 constituency MPs, 23 party list MPs)
Currently: 104 MPs (+1 constituency MP)

If the Liberals were held together by the worst excesses of the National Democrats, the Workers’ Party were practically turned into class warriors by it. Indeed, the National Democrats allegedly considered an attempt to ban the party on spurious national security grounds, only to think better of it. Robert Cottee is a moderate by the party’s standards, and is looking to expand his party’s support base to those who oppose the National Democrats’ economic policies but are not true socialists and are also wary of the Liberal Party’s social policy.

Key manifesto pledges: A complete overhaul of taxation to increase income equality; investment in frontline public services including fully nationalised healthcare; re-nationalisation of NTV
What they’ll be targeting: The complete destruction of the National Democrats, in the eyes of many. The official goal is 125 MPs.
How they can do it: Present themselves as the party who will undo the inequality of the National Democrats while respecting their national security success

Morality Party

Leader: Luke Summers
Heartland regions: Poor rural areas
Last election: 41 MPs (32 constituency MPs, 9 party list MPs)
Currently: 41 MPs

That such an overt Christian conservative party can still thrive even with the National Democrats heading in that direction is worrying. The difference, though, is that the National Democrats worship Mammon more than God. It’s a small enough difference that the two have been in coalition for the last few years, though.

Key manifesto pledges: Ban on sex education; military expansion; tighter media regulation
What they’ll be targeting: To be large enough that no coalition can work without them
How they can do it: Get out their core vote, because nobody else will vote for them

Farmers’ Party

Leader: Christian Bellotti
Heartland regions: Rural areas, obviously enough
Last election: 9 MPs (7 constituency MPs, 2 party list MPs)
Currently: 9 MPs

“The Party of the Rural Economy” appeals to traditionalists who think Kura-Pelland should look a bit more like rural Vephrall used to. They’ve taken on a bit of an environmentalist streak as a result, particularly with opposing the expansion of Mambaro, but remain primarily a popular single-issue party. Their insistence on farming subsidies deterred the National Democrats from using them to save their coalition, although Farmers’ Party MPs did save some National Democrat bills.

Key manifesto pledges: Increased subsidies for farmers; opposition to urban expansion in rural areas by introducing Green Belts for all towns and cities with population above 100,000
What they’ll be targeting: Staying put, to be honest
How they can do it: Get-out-the-vote efforts will again be critical

Noorde Nationale Partij

Leader: Pym van Essen
Heartland regions: Noorde, obviously enough
Last election: 8 MPs (7 constituency MPs, 1 party list MP)
Currently: 8 MPs

The NNP (as they tend to be known by Anglophone media sources) are almost a single-issue party, calling for independence for the Noorde region. Their other policy proclamations are pretty broad-brush stuff.

Key manifesto pledges: Noorde independence, or at least a referendum; repeal of the flat tax; reduce government waste
What they’ll be targeting: A lucky break whereby they are a required part of any coalition, and can call for an independence referendum as a condition
How they can do it: Cross their fingers real hard

CapitaliZt Party

Leader: Lee Tarbuck
Heartland regions: Big cities and some nearby rural areas, but their support is thinly spread
Last election: 7 MPs (4 constituency MPs, 3 party list MPs)
Currently: 7 MPs

They take their lead from the UCS and you can guess what they want.

Key manifesto pledges: Abolish income tax, privatise the hell out of everything
What they’ll be targeting: 10 MPs
How they can do it: Bribing the populace and hoping it’s legal. They are actually expected to lose seats in this election

There are also two independent MPs, who are both expected to keep their seats.

Here's a map (http://www.prism.gatech.edu/~gth681k/ns/vephrall/VephrallMap.png), for reference. It also includes Vephrall, the larger-in-area-but-not-really-in-population neighbour of Kura-Pelland.

liberals all the way

The latest meta-analysis of opinion polls from the blog election501.kpl projects the following election result:

National Democrats: 138 MPs (98 constituency MPs, 40 party list MPs)
Liberal: 180 MPs (129 constituency MPs, 51 party list MPs)
Workers' Party: 126 MPs (101 constituency MPs, 25 party list MPs)
Morality Party: 37 MPs (31 constituency MPs, 6 party list MPs)
Farmers' Party: 7 MPs (6 constituency MPs, 1 party list MP)
NNP: 7 MPs (6 constituency MPs, 1 party list MP)
CapitaliZt Party: 5 MPs (3 constituency MPs, 2 party list MPs)
Independents: 2 MPs (2 constituency MPs, 0 party list MPs)

The Liberals would probably form either a minority government or a coalition with the Workers' Party - relations with the National Democrats having dramatically soured in the last few years - if this came to pass. They wouldn't touch the Morality Party with a barge-pole, and the other minority parties combined would still leave them far short of the necessary 251.

Meanwhile, the Liberals have also picked up the first open declaration of international support, from Miroxia.

Well the Taeshani government on first news of the new election in KP has decided to su;pp ort all independent cantidates.

You're listening to statewide public radio. Which does do more than comment on other countries' elections, although none of that has reached the outside world.

"The Unified Democratic Republic of Kura-Pelland is preparing for nationwide elections. The most recent elections of this scale took place only weeks after dozens were killed in a terrorist attack in Trilan, the nation's capital, and saw the authoritarian National Democrats take power. But public opposition to their policies has grown, and the Liberal Party is considered likely to take over leadership in the parliament. We sat down with some Zwangzug residents for their opinions on the election, and the best choice for the future of Kura-Pelland."

It sounds like a little old lady speaking, although she's not actually all that old. "Ooh, I'm so glad I don't have to worry about those ballots anymore! I tell you, they make this system look easy."

"Um...yes. Which party would you support, though, if you were voting?"

"Er...the Morality Party," she replies with surprising confidence.

"Oh? Could you tell us why that is?"

"They can really crack down on the, the problems with society these days."

"What sort of problems?"

"Hmm...sex, drugs, the excessively shiny. How am I supposed to get to sleep at night, eh?"

"It's a conflicted world, yes. Clara Fawkes, from the southeastern exurbs, thanks for joining us."

"You're welcome."

"Rafael, meanwhile, defends the incumbent party."

"Of course the Democrats aren't perfect. But they understand how to run the country, and I can't say the same for anyone else. The world's not getting any kinder, and Kura-Pelland has to stand up for itself if it wants to be taken seriously."

"Opinions are mixed in Canbix."

"Gotta be the Liberals," says a midde-aged man pleasantly.

"How's that gonna work?" replies a somewhat younger woman. "Tax cuts and no increases, they're just asking for debt."

"Not if they cut spending. Get rid of the ridiculous "anti-terrorism" laws-"

"I'm with you there-"

"and reform education spending, that'll cut spending too."

"Reform, sure. The problem lies in the curriculum."

"Like you'd know."

"Anyway, Cottee's the best choice."

"In a coalition, sure."

"I'd be more comfortable with the Workers in general if it wasn't for the media nationalization-"

"You realize we're on public radio, right?"

The interviewer takes over. "We're actually not financed by the government, but rather by annoying and increasingly frequent pledge drives. On that note, let's take it back to the studio..."

The Holy Monastic Republic is not in the habit of interfering in the affairs of other nations, and doesn't plan to start now, but were the Holy Synod's opinion to be solicited, we would urge all Orthodox Kura-Pelland voters to shun the heterodox, and possibly heretical, Morality Party. While their views on the cause of society's ills are not entirely without virtue, their overt militarism renders them anathema to the Orthodox voter.

The Holy Monastic Republic is unable to fully endorse the views of any party - and probably wouldn't even if could - but the Holy Synod sees much to admire in the environmentally-friendly agragrian policies of the Farmers' Party, and would commend them to Orthodox Kura-Pelland voters so long as said party remains neutral on religious issues.

The key constituencies

Some constituencies can be adequately predicted to produce two MPs of one party, one of another, and a solid chunk of points for the party list vote. Briany Bay Central, for instance, is assured to produce two Workers' Party MPs and a Liberal; the isolated mountain constituency of Gulston Valley in north-west Lakeland is assured to produce two for the National Democrats and one for the Morality Party. But while the electoral system would appear likely to always produce two of one party and one of another, because the less-popular member of each party faces a 25% points penalty - and because the parties generally field two candidates from different 'wings' of the party in many constituencies - this is by no means assured. And there are some that are exceedingly close in often three or even more directions. Here's some of the constituencies to watch:

ENSKA AND IBRAJEN
Last election: Horton (NatDem) 269942, Goorten (NNP) 199503, van Helden (Morality) 156474, Bentley (Liberal) 122600, Goldworthy (NatDem) 119115.75 (from 158821), Tikstrom (CapitaliZt) 118500
(Total votes 80489, allocated points 1207335)

Note how Goldworthy would have defeated van Helden but for the 25% 'proportionality adjustment', and instead has a non-round number of 'points'. (The National Democrats lost out on a second seat in their post-attack landslide here by a full 0.75 points!) The National Democrats' popular Kevin Horton is safe in this mountainous Noorde constituency, but the Liberals - with new young candidate Kylie Meadows - will be targeting van Helden, who is sometimes dismissed here as the party's 'token Dutch-speaker'. The National Democrats are advising their supporters here to vote Morality Party as their second choice, and the Workers' Party are not fielding a candidate at all here, instead supporting Meadows. The CapitaliZts are not expected to be a force this time.

EL ARAPUCERA SOUTH-WEST AND GULHILL CLIFFS
Last election: Hurtado (NatDem) 370252, Helstead (Liberal) 270944, Donnelly (NatDem) 210411.75 (from 280549), Coulton (Liberal) 150487.5 (from 200650), Filbourne (Workers') 125902
(total votes 95032, allocated points 1425480)

Stupid name I know. But it is an accurate description of the area, split between the rural clifftop area - a National Democrat heartland - and the outer suburbs, which lean Liberal. The National Democrats picked up two seats last time, but the Liberals could easily do so this time. The Workers' Party may well pick up an MP here too, as they didn't really contest it last time and now have a much more popular candidate in Hispanic union leader Peter De La Cruz.

TURLBROOK
Last election: Jolson (Liberal) 350009, Belling (NatDem) 285403, Yapham (CapitaliZt) 240507, Brigg (NatDem) 208118.25 (from 277491), King (Liberal) 149850 (from 199800), Cristofferson (Workers') 138906
(Total votes 99,525, allocated points 1492875)

This commuter-belt seat north-east of Trilan - the M60 Trilan orbital motorway runs through its western fringes - is effectively suburban in nature, the kind of area squarely in Liberal sights this year. Mickey Jolson is a popular local MP and his seat is secure, likewise that of Jamie Belling, but Dan Yapham is looking certain to lose his seat after being embroiled in a fraud case, so this is a straight shootout between the three main parties, and gaining a lot of attention as a result. Liam King is currently quoted as a marginal favourite on election501.kpl, but with less than a 50% chance of winning - Cristofferson is a danger thanks to union support and also a threat is new National Democrat representative Lisa Payton (seen as more moderate than the outspoken Brigg, who gained the seat in the post-attack election and lost it to Yapham last time).

The Tsar of Myedvedeya, in the interest of promoting worldwide executive power, and promoting military strength, declares his support for the National Democratic party in this election. He would also like to voice his support for the environmental policies of the Farmer's Party.

The Church fathers of Myedvedeya sanction this approval, with the caveat that if any religious issues come into play, their approval could be removed at any time.

The new potential hot-button topic is the Kura-Pellandi World Cup hosting bid with Candelaria And Marquez. The Workers' Party fear a heavily commercialised tournament but welcome job opportunities in construction and hospitality, though are wary of its temporary nature; deputy leader Oscar Perona has outright opposed the bid, although most in the party are supportive and leader Robert Cottee has expressed delight at the bid being with C&M and not a 'corporate state'. The National Democrats welcome the bid, the Liberals haven't said anything much but seem to support it, the Farmers' Party oppose it out of fear of new roads 'bulldozing through our countryside', the Morality Party didn't say a thing.

International endorsements have started coming in; the Tsar of Myedvedeya has declared support for the National Democrats, and also praises the Farmers' Party for their concern on green issues, as does the Holy Synod of The Archregimancy. The big 'endorsement', however, was the anti-endorsement from the Holy Synod of the Morality Party, who were dubbed 'possibly heretical' for their pro-military stance; the Morality Party are expected to have lost some votes from left-leaning churchgoers and will probably rely on second-preference votes from the National Democrats to make up for it.

election501.kpl latest projection with eight days to the big night:

National Democrats: 139 MPs (99 constituency MPs, 40 party list MPs)
Liberal: 175 MPs (127 constituency MPs, 48 party list MPs)
Workers' Party: 132 MPs (105 constituency MPs, 27 party list MPs)
Morality Party: 33 MPs (28 constituency MPs, 5 party list MPs)
Farmers' Party: 8 MPs (6 constituency MPs, 2 party list MP)
NNP: 7 MPs (6 constituency MPs, 1 party list MP)
CapitaliZt Party: 5 MPs (3 constituency MPs, 2 party list MPs)
Independents: 2 MPs (2 constituency MPs, 0 party list MPs)

The prior meta-analysis was mistaken in that it inadvertently gave four constituency votes in the Youngtown constituency in outer Porterbridge - two to the National Democrats, one to the Liberals, one to the Workers' Party. This was due to a supposed tie in the calculations between the second National Democrat and the Workers' Party primary candidate.

The Albrecht Herald Online>Global Edition>International News
Anderson joins Liberal campaign trail
By Luca Russo

One of C&M’s most popular MPs finally dropped any charade of neutrality in the Kura-Pellandi general election with just days to go, taking to the streets in his adopted home city of Parwood to campaign for the leading opposition party.

With immigration not widely considered one of this election’s hot topics, Michael Anderson and the Kura-Pellandi Liberals will be hoping to avoid any backlash aimed at this high-profile foreigner’s declaration of support – a still-possible phenomenon, especially considering that this particular foreigner is an overseas lawmaker.

Anderson, 56, became the first directly elected member of the C&M House of Representatives from the new Candelariasians Overseas Constituency in May, having lived in Parwood with his family for almost two years. His short tenure has not been without controversy – including an unsuccessful challenge from the SD&GP on behalf of their candidate vanessaelliot, who had secured a plurality of the forty regional block votes, nine to Anderson’s eight, once the final postal votes had been counted. The courts ruled in Anderson’s favour, the Modern Liberal Party candidate having received the highest percentage of the votes at the predetermined time of declaration; and the Brayton-born millionaire has since emerged as one of the MLP’s most bankable assets – consistently attending a majority of parliamentary debates and votes via vidiscreen whilst embarking on an unending tour of Candelariasian communities across Atlantian Oceania and beyond. Seen increasingly in C&M as the acceptable face of liberal capitalism, Anderson has been spoken of as a future cabinet member and even MLP leader – providing he opts to return ‘home’ in due course.

Returning from a brief sojourn in Beningrad and Rothsbere last week; Anderson, his wife Laura, and eldest son Tom, could be seen doorstepping across suburban Parwood yesterday, backed by banners displaying the now ubiquitous ‘liberals all the way’ slogan. Talking to TV1, Anderson condemned the ‘climate of fear and restrictions on civil liberties engendered by the sitting government throughout his time in Kura-Pelland’, and called for a Liberal-led coalition to ‘return the country to its natural state as a global leader in the promotion of individual autonomy and prosperity’. Laura Anderson was quick to add that a day when ‘women named Robyn and Charley were the leaders of C&M and Kura-Pelland respectively’ was ‘one worth living for’.

Traditionally, C&M party leaders – and governments in particular – remain neutral on elections within friendly democracies, and Anderson’s MLP has given no formal indication of support for their supposed Kura-Pellandi counterparts. The ideological differences between the modern parties are clear, particularly between the MLP and Liberal’s national security agendas – the Candelariasian government must be particularly mindful of how, as with their National Democratic counterparts, their return to power was assisted considerably by the post-terror fallout. The grassroots and even parliamentary presence of the MLP is arguably to the left of the Liberals however, while President Morton’s leadership arguably places them to the right of any future Prime Minister Olsen administration – but the Candelariasian leader is widely believed to have offered Olsen her support during a telephone conversation last week.

The current parliamentary leaders of the Unionists and SD&GP are similarly quiet, though both are likely to have sympathies with the moderate Workers’ Party. The Candelariasian Workers Party leader Adi Randall held talks on a range of issues with Robert Cottee and Oscar Perona prior to the C&M elections, and has publicly praised his Kura-Pellandi counterparts on numerous occasions, though Randall’s party can claim some 102 fewer MPs in the Candelariasian legislature than their ideological allies. Pym van Essen and Jorge Estevéz, the leaders of the Noorde Nationale Partij and Partido Nacionalista Marquez respectively, are also known to have spoken previously, though the only Candelariasian party leader to formally back a contender or party thus far has been Alessandro Bracco, the 2008 presidential candidate for the Partito di Liberazione Italionao, who has spoken up for both the Liberals and NNP’s friendly stances towards minority languages as moral examples to Candelariasian leaders.

There is no seat directly reserved for ex-pats though the Kura-Pellandi embassy in Albrecht, which currently also serves as the permanent mission to Rushmore as a whole, expects to receive a steady flow of spoiled ballot papers and ham sandwiches from Kura-Pellandi natives baffled by the current electoral system. The majority of the émigré community is spread across the region’s most economically powerful cities and the population as a whole remains relatively small, despite a spike in new arrivals following both the Trilan bombings and subsequent victory for the National Democrats. In the years that have followed, the large majority of these individuals have either returned home or relinquished their Kura-Pellandi citizenship, with their most notable countrymen in C&M being current and former sportspeople – something the National Democrats have been keen to exploit, with the El din Marbles player-coach and defensive hardman Larry Torrell-Whyte appearing in region-wide ads on commercial television.

If anything however, the Lovisan community in the Candelarias has been more vocal in recent weeks – a curious development, from one of the islands’ more taciturn populations – with popular light entertainment presenter Celina Michniewicz imploring Kura-Pellandi voters in an Albrecht Herald column last week to avoid ‘becoming seduced by crass xenophobia’.

For the majority of Candelariasians however, the single concern is how the elections will affect the World Cup 44 bid – with the CAMAFA today allaying concerns that a Liberal victory would damage the country’s commitment towards hosting the costly event. “By the time the new parliament is finalised, the WC44 voting will already be decided one way or another,” CAMAFA spokesman Freddie Painter told TV1, “so they haven’t got much choice either way. Fans and other concerned individuals may rest assured that CAMAFA and the C&M government will continue to work closely with the next Kura-Pellandi administration whatever the outcome of either vote.”

Andrew McCauley has rolled the dice and made a short keynote speech from the Prime Minister's Office, which aired on national radio (http://www.zshare.net/audio/52040512bee57f4b/) and television simultaneously at 8pm tonight.

The Liberal and Workers' Parties have already launched a joint statement stating that McCauley is 'acting like a dictator', although only the Liberals are attacked in the speech.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Party have surprised many by appearing to consider electoral reform. They propose the creation of an independent Electoral Commission to organise elections, including constituency boundaries and the system itself.

Canning breaks with party line, backs K-P Workers

City of Ad’ihan, AD’IHAN— Prime Minister Alex Canning, fresh off the back of successful elections for his Green Ad’ihan party, has broken with party lines for the second time in a year to endorse a foreign party not aligned with his own.

Less than a year ago, Mr Canning voiced support for Candelaria And Marquez's Modern Liberal Party in the build up to Candelarasian presidential elections, a move which cost him the support of the Parti populaire ad’ihanais in the old Senate until the two parties reconciled following the recent elections.

The party charter of Green Ad’ihan, the party founded by Mr Canning, states support for "all other environmentally-inclined, green parties around the globe in their multiple green endeavours regardless of political ideology", although the party has not directly endorsed any foreign party at any time. By this standard, Green Ad’ihan would be supporting the Farmers' Party. However, Mr Canning has once again decided to split from the party line, officially endorsing the Kura-Pellandi Workers' Party.

Mr Canning was keen to avoid confrontation with the Parti populaire again and thus chose not to endorse any right-of-centre parties, said a government source close to Mr Canning on the condition of anonymity.

Another source, from within the Green Ad’ihan party, admitted there had been some unease amongst party members at Mr Canning's abrupt departure from party lines for the second time in under a year, and that there had been minority voices within the party calling for Mr Canning to step down as Green Ad’ihan leader.

In what is being seen as tension among Green members of parliament, the highest-ranking Green Ad’ihan MP after Mr Canning, his deputy prime minister, Phillipe Dubois, has publicly endorsed the K-P Farmers' Party, marking an astounding admission of friction within Ad’ihan's ruling party, all over the matter of Mr Canning's repeated interference in foreign politics.

However, while the effect of the two endorsements are still yet to be known, it seems unlikely that the internal party conflict is likely to grow worse, and most people will admit that party members are still deeply loyal to the Prime Minister.

Mr Dubois, though, is likely to find himself being demoted when Mr Canning announces his new Cabinet later this week, with Parti populaire ad’ihanais leader John Baines expected to become Mr Canning's new deputy.

In an interesting move, newly re-elected Ad'ihan Prime Minister Alex Canning has endorsed the Workers' Party while his deputy Phillipe Dubois has come out in favour of the Farmers' Party.

Canning's move was widely unexpected and has caused significant controversy in Ad'ihan, especially with the split with Dubois and his Green Ad'ihan party line - the Farmers' Party are generally seen as the closest to a Green Party in Kura-Pelland, and have been making that more apparent in this campaign to expand their appeal to more urban areas. But the Workers' Party deputy leader Oscar Perona, a relative firebrand, has pointed out the party's environmental credentials, in particular with regard to corporate regulation. Perona has drawn attention for opposing the World Cup 44 bid, and a National Democrat spokesperson has said that the endorsement from Canning 'is naive and reflective of a lack of understanding of the party's true nature'.

For her part, Charley Olsen is still campaigning, today taking in suburban Trilan. She started the day in Turlbrook - a constituency where all three main parties are set to fight for a seat almost certain to be lost by disgraced CapitaliZt MP Dan Yapham - and this afternoon will visit the White Hope Stadium, site of one of the Trilan terrorist attacks, to give a keynote speech on national security. The Aurlington seat in which the stadium sits has elected two National Democrats in each of the last two elections, having previously been a three-way split in which the Liberals were the most popular party.

It's Election Eve, and election501.kpl have their final projection. The Liberals appear not to have gained from Michael Anderson's intervention, while the Farmers' Party have benefitted from the attention drawn to them by international endorsements and the National Democrats have made unexpected gains after Andrew McCauley's recent media blitz. The big losers from this campaign are the Morality Party, who have been seen as effectively representing the extreme wing of the National Democrats. 'Nobody expected the Morality Party support to be so soft,' claimed Michael Wilson, who runs election501.kpl, 'and I still believe on gut instinct they will do better than this, but the numbers are clear on this - this will not be a good election for the Morality Party.' The CapitaliZts seem certain to fare even worse, with the latest projection being for just one party list MP.

National Democrats: 142 MPs (101 constituency MPs, 41 party list MPs)
Liberal: 175 MPs (127 constituency MPs, 48 party list MPs)
Workers' Party: 131 MPs (104 constituency MPs, 27 party list MPs)
Morality Party: 30 MPs (26 constituency MPs, 4 party list MPs)
Farmers' Party: 10 MPs (7 constituency MPs, 3 party list MP)
NNP: 7 MPs (6 constituency MPs, 1 party list MP)
CapitaliZt Party: 4 MPs (3 constituency MPs, 1 party list MPs)
Independents: 2 MPs (2 constituency MPs, 0 party list MPs)

In today's final campaign day, Andrew McCauley is visiting various Trilan constituencies, while Charley Olsen will make a speech from the World Cup Media Centre in Mambaro to emphasise her support for the World Cup bid ahead of tonight's WCC vote and the Workers' Party will campaign in Parwood, with some party members planning to picket the headquarters of Parwood-based television network PBS, who are seen as the National Democrats' strongest media allies.

It's election night at the WCC, and it's election day across Kura-Pelland.

47 million voters are eligible to cast their vote, and it is expected close to 40 million will. Various media projections seem to be suggesting an extremely close race with one poll for PBS News showing the National Democrats as the largest party. The Morality Party appear to be fading fast, though, so either way the National Democrats can easily be squeezed out of office by a Liberal-Workers' Party coalition. There is still no word on whether either would be willing, and the result of the election will determine a great deal.

'There is a significant gulf between those two parties. But if it is the only available way to get to 251 I am sure they will eventually take it,' reported analyst Michael Walton on the NTV News at Six last night. 'It will probably be a fractious coalition and that is precisely not what this country needs right now, but it could easily happen.'

Charley Olsen frantically rewrote her script for her speech in Mambaro's World Cup Media Centre, which took place an hour after that interview, and launched a scathing attack on 'the politicised media', saying that 'we now have a propaganda network that many dictatorships would envy, and this country has allowed itself to quietly accept that'. Michael Wilson on election501.kpl says that speech was 'straight out of the Workers' Party playbook - easily the strongest hint yet at a red-yellow coalition'. His own projection suggests only a red-yellow coalition can produce a majority government, as the Liberals plus all other parties would still fall well short and in any event the Liberals would not be able or willing to command Morality Party support.

'The maths all campaign have been saying that two things can happen: red-yellow coalition or Liberal minority government. A lot of you (commenters on the site) have been saying that it all comes down to what Charley Olsen and Robert Cottee want. Are they prepared to overcome their differences - and in Cottee's case the stick-in-the-mud class warrior Oscar Perona - for the sake of keeping the National Democrats firmly out of the corridors of power?' General consensus amongst these comments is that it depends on how far left Charley Olsen is prepared to go; tax raises for the rich would be a likely demand of the Workers' Party but contradicts Olsen's much-trumpeted policy of ensuring tax cuts below K50,000 and no increases above it. Some have suggested an increase in the tax-free personal allowance from K4,000 to K4,372. The reason for such a precise level of increase - 9.3% - is still unknown, although numerologists say it has sporting connotations.

Which leads onto the World Cup bid. That vote ends at 10pm, an hour after Kura-Pellandi polls close; the National Democrats have accused their rivals of opposing and hence jeopardising the bid, and by implication of lack of patriotism. The Liberals spoke out against this with fury, pertinently speaking at the media centre built for World Cup 38 in Mambaro and handing out national flags along with the 'liberals all the way' banners. 'Patriotism, as far as I understand it, is about being loyal to your fellow citizens. And let me tell all of you, I am loyal to the people of Kura-Pelland, and recognise that the vast majority of this country is strongly in favour of hosting the 44th World Cup twelve years after the success of hosting the 38th, and I believe that accusing your political opponents of holding a position they do not hold is far from patriotic. Far better to call it what it is - shameless, baseless political opportunism!'

The response was perhaps the biggest roar of the election campaign. Was this the speech of a winner, a PM-in-waiting? Quite possibly, some said. Much of the media said no and continued to accuse her of lack of patriotism, as well as offering distracting comments on her outfit.

That comment on the media she shoehorned into the speech at the last moment could well have been the most pertinent comment of all.

The polls have closed, and votes are being counted across the country.

Exit polls have been released by three television networks: PBS project an ultra-tight race with the National Democrats on 164 MPs, the Liberals on 167 and the Workers stuck on just 111; Tele3 (through their news subsidary TNN) project 140 for the National Democrats, 175 for the Liberals and 126 for the Workers; NTV project 144 for the National Democrats, 170 for the Liberals and 127 for the Workers.

General consensus states that the election will be a sufficiently close three-way fight that the main point of interest is whether Charley Olsen will be prepared to opt for a red-yellow coalition or whether she will instead go it alone in minority government. It has been suggested she needs at least a 25-seat cushion over the National Democrats to even consider the latter option.

First results have come in, in the ultra-safe Workers' Party heartlands of Briany Bay North and Parwood Multon, both densely populated inner-city areas. They increased their margins somewhat further, and the Liberals deepened their grip on the third seat in each case.

And now we go to real-time live text updates.

2253: Vote in in Briany Bay South. Workers Party hold two, Liberals hold one. No surprise, and margins increase again.

2258: Also announcing are two inner-city Trilan seats, Trilan Rotherton and Trilan Whelksworth. Two for the Workers in each, Whelksworth keeps its Liberal, Rotherton re-elects its personally popular National Democrat Michael Junton. He's seen as a potential future moderate leader if the party gets battered tonight.

2300: The first expected key tests are in Parwood Coulsworth, a gentrified inner-city area that split three ways last time. The National Democrats could lose to either party in that one. Also watch out for Falnor, where the National Democrats have two seats, but only just, and could lose both.

2304: Parwood Coulsworth reports and this is a big one - Liberals gain one seat from National Democrats. The winning margin was just 327 points but it's enough. The Liberals now have two seats in the constituency and the National Democrats none.

2309 One of the more interesting three-way races is in Daryfield West - where the sitting Workers MP Zach Tuncliffe is unpopular but the National Democrat MP Will Kingsley is facing the national trend against him. The Liberals may get two seats here and the Workers still believe they can...

2311: Unexpectedly quick declaration, due to low turnout it seems, in the west Trilan constituency of Bollgrave - the expected result but it is a switch. Liberals gain one seat from National Democrats - that's now a three-way split between the parties.

2318: Falnor is in. This is a big one - Workers gain one seat from National Democrats. That was one that was expected to be very close but in the end there were more than 3,500 points in it. In fact the Liberal second candidate was within 4,000 of taking the other National Democrat seat!

2321: This is a theme of the night folks. Liberals gain one seat from National Democrats in Assiri Deloraniri, a suburb which was split evenly between the big three. Meanwhile, Workers gain from National Democrats in Bentonwood in inner-city Trilan. That was split evenly, but the Workers now have two.

2325: Porterbridge Coulton produces the expected Liberals gain from National Democrats, while Daryfield West is in - and there is an intra-party flip as Zach Tuncliffe loses his seat, not to any other party, but to the other Workers candidate there, Marlene Keynes. She becomes the first female MP ever in the city.

2328: Based on party list votes in constituencies announcing so far relative to previous elections the Liberals are on for 50 party list seats, ahead of most expectations. However, all these are urban districts where voting is quicker to count. The rural pattern may, and likely will, be different - the Liberals have put a huge effort into swinging suburban constituencies. And here's another one where they've got reward for it - the Trilan suburb of Melksham sees a Liberals gain from National Democrats, the fifth already tonight.

2330: Ouch. Smilendorf South was a target for the Liberals, wanting a second seat in a constituency where the big three have one each, but the Workers' Party MP holds off the second Liberal candidate by just 96.75 points. The sitting Liberal overtakes the sitting National Democrat but that counts for nothing.

2332: 'We are still the party of this nation's true heart, the hills and small towns up and down this great country. We are still on track to win this election and believe that even if we do not, our place as this country's natural party of government will be very quick to resume after a disastrous Olsen administration'
Andrew McCauley, at the National Democrat election headquarters

Meanwhile Liberals gain from National Democrats in the Trilan suburb of Pickett Field. That borders the constituency with Trilan Airport, where one of the terror attacks took place. Significant that these flips are heavily in Trilan and not in Parwood or the eastern cities?

2340: All eyes are now on Turlbrook, the outer Trilan suburb which also borders Trilan Airport. The CapitaliZt MP Dan Yapham is sure to lose his seat thanks to fraud charges against him, but while the National Democrats were easily fourth with their second candidate here, the other two parties are going all out for it. Could this be the election-changing constituency?

A couple of Prangren suburbs seen as potential Liberal targets have come in and have not flipped.

2343: There's a flip in Prangren. Liberals gain from National Democrats in Prangren Woolston, but by far less than expected - just 995 points.

2346: It seems as though the received wisdom for the National Democrats holding firm around Lake Branagh but being destroyed in Trilan is thus: the Lakeland area has long been insecure and the eastern cities are grateful to the National Democrats for providing security and prosperity. In Trilan, what we're seeing is seats the National Democrats gained purely due to the fear of terrorist attacks reverting to a more natural yellower tinge, costing the National Democrats a lot of 'second seats' in suburban constituencies.

Right on cue, Turlbrook comes in - Liberals gain from CapitaliZts. That's a massive result - the National Democrat candidate wasn't even close, beaten by the Workers candidate and barely beating scandal-embroiled Lapham for fifth with fewer points than last time. That's a humiliation and no mistake.

2358: 'The plan is working, and while it is too early to say we will win, I believe it is not too early to say that voters have turned out in cities across the country and in Trilan in particular to reject fear and accept freedom.'
Charley Olsen, speaking at the Liberal election headquarters

Parwood Meadowlands, as expected, flips - Liberals gain from National Democrats.

0003: This is a big one. El Arapucera South-West and Gulhill Cliffs stays as it was, despite expectations of a flip from the National Democrats to the Liberals or - less likely - the Workers' Party. The swing away from the National Democrats was about half the level expected.

0006: So far the Liberals have gained nine seats, the Workers have gained two and the National Democrats have lost ten.

0008: A couple more Liberal gains from National Democrats in Wulting Stunthorpe and Yarzoya Westway. Both entirely expected.

0018: Helton Heath in Trilan sees a Workers gain from National Democrats by a far wider margin than anticipated.

0033: And by contrast Porterbridge Mulsworth is a Liberal gain from National Democrats by a paper-thin margin - it wasn't expected to be anything like as close as 176 points. And Youngtown, just outside Porterbridge, does not flip. That was a close one between all three parties - election501.kpl had it as a tie for third at one point - but the National Democrats hold their second seat by 1093 points.

0050: Not quite expected this, but El Arapucera North, Wulting Marldsen and Bargoiten Shore are all Liberal gains from National Democrats. That's huge - few would have expected all three to go that way. The gains in Trilan are spreading.

Official Announcement by the World Cup Committee President

We interrupt this election broadcast with an exclusive live feed from the Holy Monastery of the Great Lavra, where World Cup Committee President Fr. Polycarp the Venerable is announcing the results of the World Cup 44 co-host voting.

"Brothers, heterodox, heretics, heathens, atheists, and miscellaneous other,

It gives me great pleasure to announce that the winners of the right to host World Cup 44, with over two thirds of all votes cast, are Kura-Pelland and Candelaria and Marquez.

May God have mercy on their souls."


We now return you to this exciting election broadcast from Kura-Pelland, where a probable Liberal Party - Workers Party coalition increasingly looks like winning power in a stunning landslide

OOC: brilliant! And that's just the result! :) As this election would have been announced at 0845 local time, I'll have it actually come in on the breakfast show in my RP as it happens.

IC

0055: We're now hearing that the World Cup Committee are not expected to announce their election results any time soon, probably not until breakfast time at the earliest. Voting closed at 2200, as it did here. Will we get a clear result here before the World Cup bid? Unlikely, due to the nature of this election; nobody's going to get a majority out of this.

0059: Just before the top of the hour we have a Liberal gain from National Democrats in Assiri South Shore. That's fifteen of those so far tonight - and the National Democrats have also lost three to the Workers.

0103: Make that four. Workers gain from National Democrats in Varlona Central, flipping the balance of a seat in which the National Democrats held two, the Workers one and the Liberals are nowhere for some reason.

0108: First flip in Cardim is immediately followed by one just outside it - Workers gain from National Democrats in Cardim Landsdowne to make that a three-way seat, and Liberals gain from Morality in Earls Coast just to the north-west, an area that has been rapidly suburbanising and growing in population of late.

OOC: I think it's more interesting now to cut to the chase, as it were, rather than do loads more specific updates that all look the same...

IC

Charley Olsen is set to become Kura-Pelland's first female Prime Minister after leading the Liberals to a historic general election victory.

With only one constituency left to declare, the Liberals have 127 constituency MPs and are expected to add 47 MPs from their party list, for a total of 174 - some way short of the 251 required for a majority but comfortably ahead of the National Democrats, who suffered heavy losses particularly in suburban areas of the capital Trilan. They presently have 104 constituency MPs and a projected 42 party list MPs - though are assumed to be picking up two more in the remaining constituency of Boldrewood Forest, which is recounting votes for what is believed to be a close race for third between scandal-hit Morality Party MP Clive Harper-Collins, his fellow party member Will Benson and Liberal challenger Alex James.

The Workers Party also gained, though not to the extent some had predicted, with 95 constituency MPs and a projected 25 party list MPs. The Morality Party lost dramatically on the party list - based on nationwide votes - but maintained most of their support in their rural heartlands despite gains from the Farmers Party, who doubled their share of the nationwide vote but only gained one more MP. Analysts say the party picked up some support from urban-based environmentalists in constituencies where the party did not field a local candidate.

Speculation now runs riot as to whether Olsen will organise a 'red-yellow' coalition with the Workers Party or form a minority government. The former has been subject to intense speculation, particularly after Olsen took after a Workers Party campaign theme of media bias in a speech on the eve of the election, but a spokesperson for the Liberal Party say talks are ongoing. An informal offer of support without coalition government is seen as likely, with the main sticking point for coalition being the Liberals' tax-cutting manifesto; while both parties oppose the flat tax introduced by the National Democrats, the Liberals are dedicated to maintaining that rate or lower for all workers, while the Workers' Party want tax increases on high incomes.

Olsen addresses a crowd at Shanvley Stadium later tonight to celebrate her election and the success of the World Cup 44 hosting bid. Shanvley is expected to host its second World Cup final in this tournament.