NationStates Jolt Archive

THE GRUMPY OLD FOGEYS WC34 HOSTING BID

ARIDDIA – ALASDAIR I FROSTICUS

Tradition, maturity, reliability, respect.

These are all words in the Oxford English Dictionary.


Meanwhile, in the slightly less tangible world of NationStates, Ariddia and Alasdair I Frosticus (aka the Holy Empire) are bidding to host World Cup 34.

These are two of the nations with the longest-standing traditions in the World Cup. While neither nation has participated in every tournament, they are the only currently active nations to have participated in the very first World Cup. Ariddia are famously the World Cup founders and World Cup 1 hosts, while the Holy Empire hosted World Cup 2 and – with Ariddia – were the co-founders of the original World Cup Committee (Holy Empire puppet The Archregimancy also co-hosted WC28).

By voting for this bid you have the opportunity to return the tournament to its historic roots. Well, some of them. We won’t be using dice to scorinate.

Both nations have rich and detailed RP environments that we hope to be able to place at your disposal throughout the World Cup through the use of ‘official World Cup RP themes’ tied to our nations’ backgrounds and environments. Nations will not be required to participate in these themes, nor will they be rewarded for doing so. These themes will merely be at your disposal so as to offer ideas for RP and the potential for interweaving ongoing plots and subplots throughout the World Cup. Full details of these RP themes will be forthcoming should we be awarded the tournament, but just to give you an idea…. Both nations have superb to world benchmark civil liberties and good to world benchmark political freedoms – one RP theme might be to offer players from less free nations political asylum in our nations, where desired. Another definite theme will be celebrating the designer of our scorinator.


Speaking of scorinators…. We bring you the Zwangzug Scorinator (or, in RP terms, the Zwangzug World Cup Organisation Software).

Now, neither Ariddia nor myself are anything close to Excel whizzes (though I stumble through marginally more efficiently than my co-host), hence the need for an outside scorinator. I have worked out more or less how it works in detail, but since I’m unable to describe it in mathematical terms, we’ll simply provide a practical demonstration through scorination of a hypothetical World Cup qualification group.

Here is a hypothetical group using pre-World Cup 30 ranks and KPB points (not current ranks or points):

rank KPB points
STARBLAYDIA 1 57.71
THE ARCHREGIMANCY 25 26.67
LISBURN MATEYS 67 8
SATIVAVILLE 89 5.63
ALASDAIR I FROSTICUS 138 2.32
UNRANKEDISTAN n/a 0

Here are the scores for all of the matches. These were scorinated without any RP bonuses or style modifiers – this example is based on KPB points only.

Star Lis 5 1 Lis Star 1 0
Sativa Arch 1 1 Arch Sativa 4 0
AIF Unranked 3 2 Unranked AIF 0 4

Star Sativa 2 1 Sativa Star 1 4
Lis Unranked 0 1 Unranked Lis 1 1
AIF Arch 0 0 Arch AIF 3 0

Star Arch 0 0 Arch Star 1 3
Lis AIF 0 2 AIF Lis 2 1
Sativa Unranked 6 1 Unranked Sativa 1 3

Star AIF 5 0 AIF Star 1 2
Unranked Arch 0 4 Arch Unranked 4 0
Lis Sativa 0 1 Sativa Lis 0 3

Star Unranked 4 1 Unranked Star 1 2
Lis Arch 1 4 Arch Lis 0 1
Sativa AIF 2 2 AIF Sativa 0 3

The final group table reads:

p w d l f a pts
STAR 10 8 1 1 27 8 25
ARCH 10 5 3 2 21 5 18
SATIVA 10 4 2 4 18 18 10
AIF 10 4 2 4 14 18 14
LIS-MAT 10 3 1 6 9 16 14
UNRANK 10 1 1 8 8 31 4

As can be seen, there is room for upsets, but a KPB point-only scorination provides realistic results that largely pan out along the lines anticipated. Lisburn Mateys didn’t do too well, but in the lower middle ranks there’s not that much difference between them and AIF. The addition of style modifiers and RP bonuses would have provided different results, but the example above shows the basics.

The mechanics of the RP bonus must, of course, remain secret, but if any two nations can be relied upon to distinguish between spaam and quality RP, it’s surely us. We’ve been there since the beginning – we know the difference. Rest assured that the RP bonus is constructed in such a way so as to offer nations consistently writing quality RP an increased chance of qualification without in any way guaranteeing said qualification. Which is as it should be. The Excelites among you are well aware that in the end it’s all random numbers.

Style modifiers will be available between -3 to +3


In terms of qualification organisation, the precise size of each qualification group will depend on how many teams sign up. We’re inherently flexible about this. Whether or not there are playoffs for some teams also depends on the number of nations signing up, and whether or not they’re necessary to guarantee groups of equal numbers of teams. We will stress, however, that this is going to be a standard qualification format: several groups of the same number of teams, the top two or three of whom will qualify for the World Cup.

Stadia to follow.....

AIF's said it all really. We're very grateful to Zwangzug for his Zwangzug World Cup Organisation Software (ZWCOS? That has to be the worst acronym ever. I like it.) We've tweaked it a little bit to get it just the way we wanted, but full credit goes to Zwangzug.

We're hoping to bring in a touch of nostalgia - the "good old days", but with modern technology instead of dice - combined with new ideas. Namely, new aspects of roleplaying. Details will follow, but one will be (as AIF hinted) to play on granting / encouraging asylum to players from poor and/or repressive countries. To my knowledge, it's never been done before (except once, when I had one of my athletes defect to Casari during the Ylompics). It will be entirely up to each of you, of course, but the idea is to provide new bases for roleplay development, with an emphasis on interaction between participating countries. Hopefully that will stimulate RPing.

Stadia to follow shortly.

Ariddia: stadia and setting

Ariddia has six stadia fit for international matches.

* Stade National Rêvane-Sud (Rêvane (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/R%C3%Aavane), Ocea island)
* Darras Olympic Stadium (Darras, near Rêvane, Ocea island)
* Haven-Port-Nouveau Stadium (Haven ( http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Haven_%28city%29), Se’asho island)
* Wavecrest City Stadium (Wavecrest ( http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Wavecrest), Wueliw island)
* ubhashinim Ahwa'u Stadium (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Ubhashinim_Ahwa%27u_Stadium) (Ahwa’u island)
* Arctic National Stadium (Ata’eatu, Haenojol island, Ariddian Arctic Islands ( http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Ariddian_Arctic_Islands))

Stade National Rêvane-Sud, Darras Olympic Stadium, Haven-Port-Nouveau Stadium and Wavecrest City Stadium have been in use for World Cup matches since World Cup 25. The Arctic National Stadium was added for World Cup 26, and ubhashinim Ahwa’u Stadium (yes, spelt with a small ‘u’, and named after ubhashinim (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Ubhashinim)) for World Cup 31.

Location of Ariddia’s cities:
http://members.home.nl/b.h.b.peeters/ariddia.gif

Ahwa’u is the smallest of the islands in the top left-hand corner.

For the location of Ata’eatu in the Ariddian Arctic Islands, see here (http://img62.imageshack.us/my.php?image=aaisoutline2fk.png).


Stade National Rêvane-Sud
& Darras Olympic Stadium

Ariddia’s national (and largest) stadium is, logically enough, located in the capital. Rêvane ( http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/R%C3%Aavane) is, like all Ariddian cities, very clean, and has many pleasant parks. Supporters may stay in the relatively luxurious Hotel Rêvane Central ( http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Hotel_R%C3%AAvane_Central)… or they may opt for something cheaper, and choose one of the Backpackers’ Red Houses ( http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Backpackers%E2%80%99_Red_House). Numerous other hotels, as well as bed & breakfasts and private accomodation will be ready to welcome a flow of supporters from around the world.

Rêvane was founded in 1758, and part of the city still has an eighteenth-century feel to it. More recent parts are filled with skyscrapers. Rêvane has been expanding upwards rather than outwards to house its growing population, and the thick, pristine, semi-tropical forest goes right up to the very edges of the city in some places. Hikes into Ariddia’s beautiful natural environment are available, and conveniently not too far away from the bustling city life.

Rêvane is home to Ariddia’s two iconic monuments: Progress Tower (http://img451.imageshack.us/img451/9568/progresstowerhp7.jpg) (information here (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Progress_Tower)) and Harmonia (information here (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Harmonia)).

http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/4693/harmonia2kj2.jpg
Harmonia, one of the symbols of Ariddia

It is also very much an international city, with numerous embassies, the headquarters of PINA (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Public_International_News_Ariddia), and the building housing the regional Uhuhland Council. Foreign students studying at the University of Rêvane (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/University_of_R%C3%Aavane) contribute to this “international touch”.

If you’re looking for a cultural experience, Rêvane houses numerous museums – including the National History Museum and the Museum of Consumerism. If you’re looking to enjoy city life and a good night out, Avenue Weyle'e has shops, cinemas, theatres, libraries, restaurants, and night-clubs.

Darras, home of Darras Olympic Stadium, is within easy access of Rêvane by public transport.


Haven-Port-Nouveau Stadium

Haven (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Haven_%28city%29) is the main city on the island of Se’asho. It has its own international airport, albeit a small one. Its main monument is arguably its statue of Sylvia (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Sylvia), a female personification of the country, going back to the colonial era. The statue stands facing the sea to welcome visitors. If you have sharp eyes, you may see it from the plane as you come in to land.

Like most of Ariddia, Haven (founded in the late seventeenth century) is a very cultural city. It is home to the Wymgani Cultural Centre, which coordinates Wymgani (Indigenous Ariddian) cultural exhibitations and events throughout the city and the nation, and contains a permanent indoor and outdoor museum dedicated to Wymgani culture, history, society, beliefs, way of life and art. Haven is also the home of Abel Moeaki (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Abel_Moeaki), Ariddia’s most internationally famous writer.

For visitors who haven’t got time for the cultural stuff, Haven’s Pacific Botanical Gardens are a must-see. You can spend an entire morning, after-noon or evening strolling through their peaceful and beautiful setting with friends or loved ones.


Wavecrest City Stadium

Wavecrest (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Wavecrest) may be a fairly isolated spot – located on the smallish island of Wueliw, the most remote from the Ariddian mainland – but it has its own small international airport too. And its beaches attract a great many tourists every year.

Wavecrest has a higher percentage of Indigenous population than the rest of the country, and many Indigenous Ariddians on Wueliw live a traditional lifestyle which has barely changed since before the colonial era. One of them has reached international fame partly for that reason: Ke Sho (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Ke_Sho), star defender of the Rouge-et-Noirs, is from Wueliw.

For visitors interested in nature, the virtually untouched, semi-tropical forest here too touches the very edges of the city. And the waters around the island reveal fascinating flora and fauna to divers. Fishing, however, is strictly forbidden.

On the cultural side, Wavecrest houses a Numismatics Museum and several other fairly small museums. Parts of the city date back to the late seventeenth century, making it a museum in itself. Wavecrest is also famous as the location of the headquarters of Santé! (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Sant%C3%A9%21).

Wavecrest City Stadium also has a darker chapter to its history. It was here that the Rouge-et-Noirs played against the Holy Empire in a friendly match prior to World Cup 25… which resulted in almost the entire Frostican team, as well as thousands of Frostican citizens, dying from a disease contracted after their prolonged absence from ordinary reality. A memorial can be found near the stadium.


ubhashinim Ahwa’u Stadium

ubhashinim Ahwa’u Stadium (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Ubhashinim_Ahwa%27u_Stadium) is located far from any major city, but very close to beautiful forests and equally beautiful beaches. Unlike Ariddia’s other stadia, it offers an experience of Ariddian “small town life” for foreign visitors.

It is also the most modern and best equipped at present, although the country’s other stadia will undergo modernisation should the Old Fogeys’ bid be chosen to host World Cup 34.

The stadium is named in honour and memory of Errinundrian player ubhashinim ( http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Ubhashinim).


Arctic National Stadium

You thought Ariddia’s climate was warm, damp and overall semi-tropical? That’s because you’d never heard of the Ariddian Arctic Islands (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Ariddian_Arctic_Islands). Welcome to Ariddia’s far-flung colony, where it’s really, really cold.

The Arctic Islands were discovered by Ariddians in 1478, and annexed in 1868, but they’ve been inhabited for at least 38,000 years… much longer than Ariddia itself. Indigenous Arctic Islanders have their own unique language, culture and traditions, although the Islands have been multicultural for centuries now.

The stadium is on the island of Haenojol, in the small capital town, Ata’eatu. In winter, Haenojol is trapped in ice, and all but isolated from the world. Fortunately, any matches here will be held in summer.

The Arctic National Stadium will only be used for a very small number of games.

Could you provide more information about the RP bonus, Such as example's in scorination of The following scenario:

rank KPB points [RP Bonus]
STARBLAYDIA 1 57.71 [None]
THE ARCHREGIMANCY 25 26.67 [None]
LISBURN MATEYS 67 8 [None]
SATIVAVILLE 89 5.63 [None]
ALASDAIR I FROSTICUS 138 2.32 [None]
N00BISTAN n/a 0 [None]
DEBUTSVILLE n/a 0 ["MAX"]


It would be great to have a 10 match sequence against each team in the group, 60 matches total, if possible, so as to allow a comparison of the overall effect of the RP Bonus without having to go so far as quantifying it, which, I myself understand is never ideal.

[will do my best to answer Vilita's query later today, but in the meantime....]

THE HOLY EMPIRE: Stadia and Setting

The Holy Empire is one of the more unusual nations regularly participating in the World Cup. It is located in the Dreamed Realm, a mysterious region lying outside Ordinary Reality which is continuously dreamed into existence by huge numbers of sleeping monks.

As such, reality often operates in unexpected ways in the Holy Empire.

For the purposes of this World Cup, reality will be stable for the duration of the tournament finals so as to minimise discomfort and inconvenience to visitors. However, what we consider to be stable reality may not always conform to your expectation of reality - as will be seen in the description of the first round venues.

Travel to the Holy Empire will be through portals, as it is impossible to reach the Empire through ordinary means. The Holy Empire has no physical boundaries - it is simultaneously spherical and flat. This is a nation where people see the phrase 'Euclidean geometry', reach for the dictionary, and throw it away. Walking off one 'edge; will merely find you returned to the opposite 'edge'

[OOC - I will be intentionally limiting the ability of visiting teams to manipulate Dreamed Realm reality for this tournament. This will not be like the infamous Cup of Harmony Dream Bubble. Minor temporary disruptions (for example, all of the supporters at a match have their skin turned the colour of one of the teams for the duration of that match only) will be tolerated - any attempts to seriously disturb reality for the Dreamed Realm or either team will be extremely strictly controlled]

Stadia

The primary stadium used for the World Cup will be the Imperial Hippodrome.

This magnificent 100,000 gilded and bejewelled ground lies within the walls of the Imperial City of Alasdairopolis, adjacent to the Great Palace and the Imperial Basilica of the Holy Wisdom. The Imperial City is an extraordinary sight - an ancient description from a wandering monk follows:

We went on to a city of indescribable beauty. Its walls were built of twelve courses, each of a different precious stone, and its gates were of gold and silver. Within the gates we found a golden pavement, golden houses, golden seats. The city was filled with a strange light and a sweet smell. At the edge of the town we came to a wonderful palace, and we entered a hall as broad as a stone's throw. From one end of it to the other stretched a table of porphyry round which many guests were reclining. A spiral staircase, situated at one end of the hall, led to an internal balcony. Two eunuchs, resplendent as lightning, appeared at this balcony, and indicated that we too were to join the guests at the table....

Note that any attempt to remove gems and precious metals from the Holy Empire will fail unless said items are an official gift; all such items removed unofficially will turn to base metal and glass once they leave the Dreamed Realm.

The Imperial Hippodrome will host all first round matches in the Holy Empire.

"How?", you quite rightly ask... By having the dreaming monks bend time and space so that matches can take place simultaneously within the very same ground through the use of temporarily split timelines. If it makes your head hurt just thinking about the implications, don't worry, most Imperial citizens feel the same way. They get by by trying not to think about it.

Quarterfinals in the Holy Empire will take place in two other grounds, each of which was used in World Cup 2:

1) Stadium Tzimisces, Philadelphia: a 60,000 seater located in the capital of the vast and underpopulated Chaco region, which produces a disproportionate number of the Holy Empire's footballers. The Chaco is a huge raised plateau where the searing heat of the dry season alternates with the suffocating humidity of the wet season. The quarterfinal will be in the dry season.

2) The Meteora, St. Mary's City: a 55,000 seater located in the third city of the Empire, which itself lies adjacent to the steep cliffs dividing the Imperial Plains from the Chaco. The Meteora seems almost suspended in the air in the cliffs immediately above St. Mary's; on three sides it (mostly) faces stone, but the fourth side (one of the long sides) juts out into thin air from the cliffs, providing spectacular views. It is reached by cable cars, walking paths and lifts [elevators]

Those who want an additional indicator of the 'feel' of Holy Empire are invited to read the following work by a noted Imperial poet:

THE IMPERIAL EPIC
By Guillermo B. Yeatses

The unpurged images of day recede;
The Emperor's drunken soldiery are abed;
Night resonance recedes, night-walkers' song
After great cathedral gong;
A starlit or a moonlit dome disdains
All that man is,
All mere complexities,
The fury and the mire of human veins.

Miracle, bird or golden handiwork,
More miracle than bird or handiwork,
Planted on the starlit golden bough,
Can like the cocks of Hades crow,
Or, by the moon embittered, scorn aloud
In glory of changeless metal
Common bird or petal
And all complexities of mire or blood.

At midnight on the Emperor's pavement flit
Flames that no faggot feeds, nor steel has lit,
Nor storm disturbs, flames begotten of flame,
Where blood-begotten spirits come
And all complexities of fury leave,
Dying into a dance,
An agony of trance,
An agony of flame that cannot singe a sleeve.

Astraddle on the dolphin's mire and blood,
Spirit after spirit! The smithies break the flood,
The golden smithies of the Emperor!
Marbles of the dancing floor
Break bitter furies of complexity,
Those images that yet
Fresh images beget,
That dolphin-torn, that gong-tormented sea.

Ours is no country for old men. The young
In one another's arms, birds in the trees
- Those dying generations - at their song,
The salmon-falls, the mackerel-crowded seas,
Fish, flesh, or fowl, commend all summer long
Whatever is begotten, born, and dies.
Caught in that sensual music all neglect
Monuments of unageing intellect.

An aged man is but a paltry thing,
A tattered coat upon a stick, unless
Soul clap its hands and sing, and louder sing
For every tatter in its mortal dress,
Nor is there singing school but studying
Monuments of its own magnificence;
And therefore I have sailed ‘cross dreams and come
To the holy city of Alasdairopolis.

O sages standing in God's holy fire
As in the gold mosaic of a wall,
Come from the holy fire, perne in a gyre,
And be the singing-masters of my soul.
Consume my heart away; sick with desire
And fastened to a dying animal
It knows not what it is; and gather me
Into the artifice of eternity.

Once out of nature I shall never take
My bodily form from any natural thing,
But such a form as Imperial goldsmiths make
Of hammered gold and gold enamelling
To keep a drowsy Emperor awake;
Or set upon a golden bough to sing
To lords and ladies of the Holy Empire
Of what is past, or passing, or to come.

The darkness drops again. And know I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle.
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?

ICly, I've attributed the scorinator to Charles Turing. Careful readers of my RP may remember his frustration with untitledspreadsheet.xls and his broadcast partner (Alan Babbage)'s suggestion to add one to the annoying numbers that are less than one. Obviously, it worked.

Could you provide more information about the RP bonus, Such as example's in scorination of The following scenario:

rank KPB points [RP Bonus]
STARBLAYDIA 1 57.71 [None]
THE ARCHREGIMANCY 25 26.67 [None]
LISBURN MATEYS 67 8 [None]
SATIVAVILLE 89 5.63 [None]
ALASDAIR I FROSTICUS 138 2.32 [None]
N00BISTAN n/a 0 [None]
DEBUTSVILLE n/a 0 ["MAX"]



I'll do my best. In the following hypothetical campaign, as requested, Debutsville has been given the maximum RP bonus each day, while the other nations have been given no RP bonus.

Star - Arch 3 1 Arch - Star 2 1
LisMat - Sativa 0 2 Sativa - LisMat 1 1
AIF - Noob 3 2 Noob - AIF 1 2
Debut - bye bye - Debut

Arch - Lis-Mat 2 0 LisMat - Arch 1 2
Sativa - AIF 0 0 AIF - Sativa 1 3
Noob - Debut 2 3 Debut - Noob 1 2
bye - Star Star - bye

LisMat - AIF 3 1 AIF - LisMat 2 2
Arch - Noob 2 2 Noob - Arch 1 3
bye - Sativa Sativa - bye
Debut - Star 2 3 Star - Debut 1 3

Sativa - Noob 3 2 Noob - Sativa 1 3
Debut - LisMat 0 0 LisMat - Debut 4 1
Arch - bye bye - Arch
Star - AIF 4 1 AIF - Star 0 4

AIF - Debut 2 2 Debut - AIF 0 2
bye - LisMat LisMat - bye
Noob - Star 1 4 Star - Noob 6 0
Sativa - Arch 2 4 Arch - Sativa 5 1

bye - AIF AIF - bye
Noob - LisMat 1 2 LisMat - Noob 1 1
Arch - Debut 5 2 Debut - Arch 0 4
Sativa - Star 1 1 Star - Sativa 2 1

Star - LisMat 1 2 LisMat - Star 2 4
Arch - AIF 4 1 AIF - Arch 0 1
Sativa - Debut 4 2 Debut - Sativa 2 4
Noob - bye bye - Noob

Here is the final table from the above campaign:

p w d l f a pts
ARCH 12 10 1 1 35 14 31
STAR 12 8 1 3 34 16 25
SATIVA 12 6 3 3 25 21 21
LIS-MAT 12 4 4 4 18 18 16
AIF 12 3 3 6 13 26 12
DEBUT 12 2 2 8 18 33 8
NOOB 12 1 2 9 16 33 5

The big difference from the previous campaign is that Starblaydia had a comparatively poor run, qualifying in second, while the Archregimancy did comparatively better (woo-hoo!)

On the face of it, Debutesville didn't do that much better than Noobistan, but I think this is slightly misleading, because the obvious big difference between the two is that Debutesville defeated Starblaydia. At Starblaydia.

I decided that this was worth looking at more closely, so here are 20 results for Starblaydia v. Debutesville, with the latter getting the full RP bonus, and the former getting none. Wins for Debutesville are bolded, draws in italics.

5 1
2 3
5 1
4 2
1 2
3 1
1 2
4 0
3 0
3 0
1 1
3 0
4 2
1 2
5 1
5 1
2 2
2 1
4 1
2 1

This suggests that an unranked team with the absolute maximum RP bonus can beat a top-ranked team with no RP bonus about 20% of the time, with the top-ranked team winning 70% of the time.

Compare this to Starblaydia playing Noobistan in Starblaydia, with both teams having no RP bonus:

2 1
3 0
2 1
1 0
3 1
2 2
1 1
5 0
3 1
3 1
2 1
5 1
2 1
3 1
4 0
3 2
2 1
4 2
2 1
5 0

Here the unranked team wins 0% of the matches (though they do squeak two against the odds draws), and the top-ranked team wins 90% of the time.

The RP bonus clearly improves the chances of an unranked team against a top-ranked team, and even gives them the chance of an improbable away win, but it doesn't do so to the extent that things get silly - and note that the unranked team's wins tend to be much narrower than the top-ranked team when they do occur.

Does this adequately answer the question?

[will do my best to answer Vilita's query later today, but in the meantime....]

THE HOLY EMPIRE: Stadia and Setting


[OOC - I will be intentionally limiting the ability of visiting teams to manipulate Dreamed Realm reality for this tournament. This will not be like the infamous Cup of Harmony Dream Bubble.
[/CENTER]

Darn.. so no matches taking place inside of an ice cream cone huh?

The stadium is on the island of Haenojol, in the small capital town, Ata’eatu. In winter, Haenojol is trapped in ice, and all but isolated from the world. Fortunately, any matches here will be held in summer.

Darn.. so no matches taking place inside of an ice cream cone huh?

Maybe if Haenojol has a really cold summer, perhaps it could be possible to play inside an ice cream cone over there?

As Zwangzug created the scorinator, perhaps I could politely ask what exactly the formula is. And why it happens to have the World Cup 30 rankings on it as opposed to, say, the World Cup 33 rankings?

AIF,

Could you run a similiar set of scores for AIF versus Debutville with full RP bonus.
I think a good RP bonus shouldn't lead to the #1 team losing to an unranked team with much regularity but should lead to an unranked team with full RP beating a low ranked team with no RP a good percentage of the time. I'm troubled by the fact that AIF finished four points ahead of Debutsville in this example simulation. Similarly I don't like that Sativaville finished 13 points ahead of them.

In my mind RP bonus shouldn't lead to big upsets very often, but should in most cases lead good RPing teams to finish 2-3 places ahead of where rank would indicate they finish quite often.

Ropa-Topia: No, sorry. ;)

Schiavonia: Unless I'm mistaken, the exact formula is rarely released, so as not to reveal how the RP bonus is going to work. In any case, we've been tweaking Zwangzug's formula slightly, to generate more realistic results and to give low-ranked RPing teams a slightly greater opportunity to win or tie against non-RPing opponents. As for using the WC30 rankings in the example... It's just an example. We could have used any. But the WC30 ones were readily available. (I used them too when running simulation tests on Zwangzug's formula.)

Az-cz... Well, see just above. We're trying to make it as fair as possible, adjusting it accordingly. Obviously we can't hope for everyone to agree with the end result (some players will have diametrically opposed expectations), but our aim is to make it fair, and to give a reasonable reward to RPing.

I'll run that test for you if I have time before AIF does (I'm a little busy right now catching up on other things... most notably a TG campaign for a proposal I've submitted to the UN, due to expire tomorrow). I take it you mean full RP bonus for AIF and none for the unranked team?

no I meant full RP for the unranked team and none for AIF. Alternatively, or in addition, you could run AIF with full RP against Sativaville. Or up along the board. What I'd like to see is how often a lower ranked team with a big RP bonus advantage beats the teams ranked close to them. My personal preference for RP bonuses is for steady progress rather than big jumps.

Upsets are good. If a top-player doesn't RP, they should have a good risk of an upset. I'm not saying all the time, but they are good.

As Zwangzug created the scorinator, perhaps I could politely ask what exactly the formula is. And why it happens to have the World Cup 30 rankings on it as opposed to, say, the World Cup 33 rankings?

You'll have to ask Zwangzug for the formula, but as to why I used World Cup 30 rankings....

Because those are the rankings provided by the KPB ranking link on the NS wiki page - it hasn't been updated since. Rather than hunt around for the current rankings, I saved time [I've been doing this at work, naughty me] by just using the ones I was immediately able to find. Surely it doesn't matter which rankings are used for a hypothetical test run so long as everyone knows what the ranking points are?

For the World Cup proper, we would obviously use the latest ranking points.

Az-Cz-requested simulation coming up....

no I meant full RP for the unranked team and none for AIF.

Right....

Az-Cz is concerned about some details of the final table in the hypothetical example.

The requested scenario here is a low-ranked team (AIF, KPB points 2.32) playing at home, but with no RP bonus, versus an unranked team ('Debutesville', KPB 0) playing away, with maximum RP bonus.

Unranked team wins in bold, draws in italics.

1 2
3 1
1 2
2 3
3 1
2 2
1 1
1 2
1 2
1 1
4 0
3 1
3 3
5 0
1 2
1 1
1 3
1 0
5 3

The unranked RP'ing away team has climbed from 10% of wins to 30% of wins. The ranked non-RP'ing home team has fallen from 70% of wins to 35% of wins - just marginally ahead of the RP'ing team. The percentage of draws has increased from 10% to 25%.

Again, this shows a clear progression from the previous run of results where the unranked RP'er was losing to a top-ranked non-RP'er 70% of the time instead of 35% of the time.


For comparison, here is the home low-ranked team versus an unranked team away, where neither has any RP bonus:

2 1
3 2
4 1
3 1
4 1
4 1
4 1
2 1
2 0
2 0
1 2
2 2
2 0
3 1
1 2
1 1
5 0
3 1
2 1

Here, the low-ranked team wins 80% of the time, the unranked team wins 10% of the time, and 10% are draws.

Again, the progression from the previous samples is clear.



My inner statistician (and in my line of work, we all have an inner statistician) will always caution that a 20 run sample isn't as good for statistical purposes as a 100 run sample (for which I simply don't have the time at work). I'll therefore add the disclaimer that while all the examples I've provided serve as a useful general guide, neither Ariddia nor myself can guarantee that every World Cup result will precisely follow the statistical pattern outlined above.

Could I politely ask that requests for me to scorinate test results end here? I've been fairly accommodating so far - in fact have arguably been asked to present more of a burden of scorination proof than any WC bid in recent history - but this has to end somewhere. This is the bid we're presenting, the scorinator works (even if not everyone will agree with the precise impact of the RP bonus - as Ariddia notes, we'll never keep everyone happy), and until one of the other bids can get it's act together and post a bid thread, it's also the only bid going.

Could I politely ask that requests for me to scorinate test results end here? I've been fairly accommodating so far - in fact have arguably been asked to present more of a burden of scorination proof than any WC bid in recent history - but this has to end somewhere.

This comment seems a bit odd to me as you've only been asked to provide two similar sets of scorination.

Asking questions of the hosts is paramount to the bidding process, and historically far too much "Trust us it works" is accepted in the bid process, then when things go wrong, the public only have themselves to blame for not questioning the hosts when the bid thread was up.

Now the potential hosts are finally being questioned and they are asking for it to stop? After just two sample scorinations, the fact that you are already fed up with doing it does not make me a confident voter for you in a bid where we are deciding who we think is going to be best to provide far more scorinations than this over double-digits in matchdays plus finals.

If you don't wish to scorinate them I would suggest, politically, that you just say nothing and let your bid partner Ariddia handle them, instead of letting everyone know that you really are a Grumpy Old Fogey who would rather let their reputation vote them into the bid instead of letting the numbers do the talking at the voters request.



Just my opinion, of course, I could be wrong :D

This comment seems a bit odd to me as you've only been asked to provide two similar sets of scorination.

Asking questions of the hosts is paramount to the bidding process, and historically far too much "Trust us it works" is accepted in the bid process, then when things go wrong, the public only have themselves to blame for not questioning the hosts when the bid thread was up.

Now the potential hosts are finally being questioned and they are asking for it to stop? After just two sample scorinations, the fact that you are already fed up with doing it does not make me a confident voter for you in a bid where we are deciding who we think is going to be best to provide far more scorinations than this over double-digits in matchdays plus finals.

If you don't wish to scorinate them I would suggest, politically, that you just say nothing and let your bid partner Ariddia handle them, instead of letting everyone know that you really are a Grumpy Old Fogey who would rather let their reputation vote them into the bid instead of letting the numbers do the talking at the voters request.



Just my opinion, of course, I could be wrong :D


Point taken, though I'll point out in turn that I've provided three separate scorinations, including two full hypothetical group scenarios and two complete scorinations of further double test runs (one of each of which overlap).

This is the most complete range of scorination scenarios provided by any bid thread I can remember in recent memory, and hardly indicates that either of us are asking anyone to just trust us, or take it on faith that things work.

My polite request that hypothetical scorination should end here doesn't mean that I'm 'fed up' with scorination - my organisational record in WC28 as the Archregimancy should amply demonstrate otherwise.

I'm merely noting that I think we've provided enough evidence while also allowing for, perhaps rather awkwardly and imperfectly, the fact that I have other RL things to worry about today specifically. If Ariddia disagrees that this is ample burden of proof, he can always reply differently.


Of course, if you have a substantive objection to how the hypothetical results have panned out, you are free to share this with all of us in this thread, and we'll reply accordingly. So.... what was that substantive objection again? And in what way do you believe the other current bids are superior?

In all honesty, this isn't the most test results we've seen in a bid thread, depending on how you interpret that. I'm sure there was a bid last time with a list of the results of loads of simulations (I think it was Casari).

As for the formula, if it's a new one, I know I include it in any bid I make, just so people know exactly what they're letting themselves in for.

In all honesty, this isn't the most test results we've seen in a bid thread, depending on how you interpret that. I'm sure there was a bid last time with a list of the results of loads of simulations (I think it was Casari).

As for the formula, if it's a new one, I know I include it in any bid I make, just so people know exactly what they're letting themselves in for.

I stand corrected on the test results.

I will ask Zwangzug by e-mail if he's able to provide a specific formula for the scorinator that can be posted in this thread as I appreciate the importance of this.

Failing that, I would also be happy to send a copy of the scorinator via e-mail to anyone who wants a copy to play around with themselves. Just TG me with your e-mail address, and I'll send it on. Again, I appreciate the importance of people having confidence in the scorinator mechanics.

[whoops - posting with wrong nation! Please TG AIF, not the Archregimancy, if you want a copy of the scorinator]

The score of the team with the more KPB points is the rounding to the nearest integer of:

a random number (0 to 1) times twice a constant (1 in this case) plus another constant (.125, I believe) times the combined styles of the two teams, all multiplied by an RP-bonus factor and 1 plus the natural log of the ratio of 1 plus each team's KPB points. If this last number exceeds three (this, and other constants, can be modified at the hosts' whims), its natural log is taken and added to one, the output being used as a coefficient instead. The score of the team with fewer points is the same thing, without that final factor added in.

...You may just want to e-mail AIF, though I'll put it on the wiki eventually.

This comment seems a bit odd to me as you've only been asked to provide two similar sets of scorination.

Asking questions of the hosts is paramount to the bidding process, and historically far too much "Trust us it works" is accepted in the bid process, then when things go wrong, the public only have themselves to blame for not questioning the hosts when the bid thread was up.

Now the potential hosts are finally being questioned and they are asking for it to stop? After just two sample scorinations, the fact that you are already fed up with doing it does not make me a confident voter for you in a bid where we are deciding who we think is going to be best to provide far more scorinations than this over double-digits in matchdays plus finals.

If you don't wish to scorinate them I would suggest, politically, that you just say nothing and let your bid partner Ariddia handle them, instead of letting everyone know that you really are a Grumpy Old Fogey who would rather let their reputation vote them into the bid instead of letting the numbers do the talking at the voters request.



Just my opinion, of course, I could be wrong :D

I concur.

The score of the team with the more KPB points is the rounding to the nearest integer of:

a random number (0 to 1) times twice a constant (1 in this case) plus another constant (.125, I believe) times the combined styles of the two teams, all multiplied by an RP-bonus factor and 1 plus the natural log of the ratio of 1 plus each team's KPB points. If this last number exceeds three (this, and other constants, can be modified at the hosts' whims), its natural log is taken and added to one, the output being used as a coefficient instead. The score of the team with fewer points is the same thing, without that final factor added in.

...You may just want to e-mail AIF, though I'll put it on the wiki eventually.

This is why I'll never be able to create a scorinator...:confused:...well I am taking Statistics next year...I guess that might help...-_-

The score of the team with the more KPB points is the rounding to the nearest integer of:

a random number (0 to 1) times twice a constant (1 in this case) plus another constant (.125, I believe) times the combined styles of the two teams, all multiplied by an RP-bonus factor and 1 plus the natural log of the ratio of 1 plus each team's KPB points. If this last number exceeds three (this, and other constants, can be modified at the hosts' whims), its natural log is taken and added to one, the output being used as a coefficient instead. The score of the team with fewer points is the same thing, without that final factor added in.

...You may just want to e-mail AIF, though I'll put it on the wiki eventually.
(bold added)

So, if team A has a KPB score of 19 and a n00b has a KPB score of 0, then the last number will be ln((1 + 19)/(1 + 0)) = ln(20) ≈ 2.996? And if team B has a KPB score of 20 and the n00b has a KPB score of 0, then the last number will be ln((1 + 20)/(1 + 0)) = ln(21) ≈ 3.045, which will then be adjusted to 1 + ln(3.045) ≈ 2.114, giving the higher-ranked team B a smaller chance than team A of beating a n00b?

(bold added)

So, if team A has a KPB score of 19 and a n00b has a KPB score of 0, then the last number will be ln((1 + 19)/(1 + 0)) = ln(20) ≈ 2.996? And if team B has a KPB score of 20 and the n00b has a KPB score of 0, then the last number will be ln((1 + 20)/(1 + 0)) = ln(21) ≈ 3.045, which will then be adjusted to 1 + ln(3.045) ≈ 2.114, giving the higher-ranked team B a smaller chance than team A of beating a n00b?

Buh.....

Righty-ho, I freely admit that I'm out of my depth here.

If this is the case, then I freely concede we have a problem.

While Zwangzug earlier raised a similar issue with me, it was my strong impression that the issue had been addressed in the final version used to scorinate the test results in this thread (and other test results not posted).

I reiterate my offer to send the scorinator to anyone who wants a copy so this can be re-examined by a neutral party if necessary. We'll try and let everyone know by Monday whether or not we believe a problem exists.

I'll also send Z an e-mail to make sure that he's aware of Commerce Heights' question above, so he can reply directly before Monday if possible.

I'd like to thank CH for bringing this potential problem to our attention, and we'll sort it out whether or not it is a problem ASAP.

If the problems are considered to severe, an updated version of the World Cup 30 scorinator should be ready by early next week. If that would be of any use.

(bold added)

So, if team A has a KPB score of 19 and a n00b has a KPB score of 0, then the last number will be ln((1 + 19)/(1 + 0)) = ln(20) ≈ 2.996? And if team B has a KPB score of 20 and the n00b has a KPB score of 0, then the last number will be ln((1 + 20)/(1 + 0)) = ln(21) ≈ 3.045, which will then be adjusted to 1 + ln(3.045) ≈ 2.114, giving the higher-ranked team B a smaller chance than team A of beating a n00b?Short answer yes, medium answer I'll fix it soon, long answer it's still in mode like 0.64. 1.0 is...coming. Just like the natural logarithm graph, it grows slowly but eventually eclipses any given real value.

Well maybe not just like ln(x), but close enough to make the metaphor work.

EDIT: POTENTIAL SOLUTION

Or, one could simply default to 1+ln(1+ln(ratio))) regardless of the inner value. This would reduce scores, but my tests don't make that reduction seem dramatic: I'll send a version to AIF for tests. Hosts could adjust the first constant if they wanted to raise the scores up again, of course.

*glance at post count* Meet version .65.

Can we have a scenario where a middle-ranking team with quite a lot of RP plays a slightly above middle-ranking team who misses alternate games with RP, but with a sort of baroque feel to the score?

Can we have a scenario where a middle-ranking team with quite a lot of RP plays a slightly above middle-ranking team who misses alternate games with RP, but with a sort of baroque feel to the score?

Leaving aside the issue of a baroque feel (a what?), and using our scorinator as it currently is, I've done a quick simulation. I can redo it with slightly different specifications if you want. These are the specifications I used:

* Team A is ranked 38th; Team B is ranked 25th.
* I haven't factored in home advantage.
* Both teams have a style modifier of 0.

Do bear in mind that we will be rewarding quality of RPs, not just quantity. So the difference in bonus may be extremely slight (in your example) if quality compensates quantity. For the sake of testing it, I've run two tests. In the first, Team A, which RPs a lot, does good quality RPs, as does Team B, which RPs less somewhat frequently (but does RP, using your specifications). In the second, Team A's RPs (i.e., those of the lower-ranked team who posts more frequently) have a qualitative edge over Team B's.

These are the results. Team A's score comes first in each case.

Test run 1:
1-1
1-2
1-0
0-3
0-1
1-0
0-1
1-1
1-2

Test run 2:
1-1
0-0
1-1
0-2
0-2
0-2
0-0
0-0
0-1

Can we have a simulation with Uncle Ted at the side of the house, but you can still see the front of the house?

In response to Zwangzug's post, which precedes this one chronologically, but is, thanks to the magic of timewarp, on the next page:

So? It gives me an opportunity to re-test the scorinator. ;)

http://img181.imageshack.us/img181/8854/simulationfw0.jpg

The eighth notes are not just "broke", they're "baroque".

(...I am assuming these nonsensical requests are humorous, and responding in kind. If I'm missing something, please let me know.)

Nonsensical? Me? When I had the presence of mind to ask for a sponge?

These are the results. Team A's score comes first in each case.

Test run 1:
1-1
1-2
1-0
0-3
0-1
1-0
0-1
1-1
1-2

Test run 2:
1-1
0-0
1-1
0-2
0-2
0-2
0-0
0-0
0-1

Is there something in the formula that prevents goals from being scored as well?

Are we going to return to the leagionistic ways of World Cup 13 when poor little old RP your heart out newcomers don't even have a single goal to RP about until Matchday 9? :)

And also that there's do to be very little movement, regardless of RP. Looking at those results the #38 team posted 2 wins, 7 Draws and 11 losses against the number 25 team. In percentages 10% wins, 35% draws, 55% losses. Those numbers are disappointingly low I think. A gap from 38 to 25 shouldn't be that big. If the lower ranked team had an RP advantage it definitely shouldn't be that big.

It definitely does seem from all of the results posted that this scorinator will lead to a cup where mostly everybody plays to rank. Which is unfortunate.

Nonsensical? Me? When I had the presence of mind to ask for a sponge?

Pfftt, I'd ask for a towel, you know how useful towels are... *nod*

And for something completely different.. A simulation with the following:

Team A (ranked 5th) Nevers posts at all.
Team B (ranked 20th) posts once every 4 matches
Team C (ranked 40th) posts once every 3 matches
Team D (ranked 65th) posts every other match
Team E (ranked 90th) posts every match.

To the teams that correspond to these ranks, i apologize if i offend.

And for something completely different.. A simulation with the following:


Notes:
* style modifiers considered to be 0 for all teams involved
* home advantage factored in
* RPs considered to be of similar quality, since - I repeat - quality is a factor, not just quantity.


Group Test 1 Test 2 Test 3 Test 4
Team A Team E 4-3 4-1 6-2 5-2
Team B Team D 1-2 1-2 1-0 4-2
Team A Team C 4-2 1-2 3-2 5-2
Team B Team E 5-1 3-1 4-1 4-1
Team A Team D 1-0 4-3 4-2 5-2
Team B Team C 1-2 1-1 1-1 2-1
Team A Team B 0-2 1-1 2-2 1-1
Team C Team D 3-1 0-0 2-0 3-2
Team C Team E 5-1 1-2 2-1 4-3
Team D Team E 2-2 1-1 3-2 4-2
Team E Team A 3-2 3-6 1-3 1-2
Team D Team B 3-3 2-0 2-3 1-5
Team C Team A 2-3 2-2 1-3 1-5
Team E Team B 3-1 3-5 2-4 0-3
Team D Team A 0-4 3-3 2-3 2-0
Team C Team B 2-3 1-1 0-3 0-4
Team B Team A 0-1 2-3 2-2 0-1
Team D Team C 0-3 1-1 3-3 2-3
Team E Team D 0-0 0-3 0-3 1-3
Team E Team C 2-2 1-4 1-3 2-3

Group standings based on Test 1 results
W D L GF GA Pts Position
Team A 6 0 2 19 12 18 1st
Team B 3 1 4 16 14 10 3rd
Team C 4 1 3 21 15 13 2nd
Team D 1 3 4 8 17 6 5th
Team E 2 3 3 15 21 9 4th

Ok thanks.

Any bid that ranks me first in testing deserves some credit :D

You'll be giving me that rank again if you do actually get to host, right? ;)

Nat-

erm...

Naturally. But don't tell anyone. :D

Any further ideas about group organization?

Any further ideas about group organization?

Well, that would depend of course on the number of signups. As stated by my esteemed colleague, there may or may not be play-offs, depending on the number of sign-ups (which will determine the number of groups / teams per group). We want to be flexible, and to adapt to allow as many teams as possible to sign up

(Unlike what I did in World Cup 1, when I limited the number of signups to 32. Although the positive consequence of that was a number of nations waiting and eager for there to be a World Cup 2. :p)

Ladies and Gentlemen,

We bring you the latest ever-so-slightly-tweaked version of the scorinator (for the benefit of those with a copy of the scorinator, field C2 - g/s/g - has been increased by a single decimal point to 1.1; all other fields are as in Z's corrected version).

As before, the group is:

rank KPB points
STARBLAYDIA 1 57.71
THE ARCHREGIMANCY 25 26.67
LISBURN MATEYS 67 8
SATIVAVILLE 89 5.63
ALASDAIR I FROSTICUS 138 2.32
NOOBISTAN (no RP) n/a 0
DEBUTSVILLE (max RP) n/a 0

Star - Arch 3 2 Arch - Star 2 2
LisMat - Sativa 2 1 Sativa - LisMat 2 1
AIF - Noob 4 2 Noob - AIF 2 2
Debut - bye bye - Debut

Arch - Lis-Mat 3 1 LisMat - Arch 1 1
Sativa - AIF 1 0 AIF - Sativa 1 3
Noob - Debut 1 2 Debut - Noob 2 2
bye - Star Star - bye

LisMat - AIF 1 1 AIF - LisMat 2 3
Arch - Noob 4 1 Noob - Arch 2 4
bye - Sativa Sativa - bye
Debut - Star 0 2 Star - Debut 5 0

Sativa - Noob 3 2 Noob - Sativa 0 4
Debut - LisMat 2 3 LisMat - Debut 5 1
Arch - bye bye - Arch
Star - AIF 1 0 AIF - Star 1 4

AIF - Debut 0 1 Debut - AIF 3 1
bye - LisMat LisMat - bye
Noob - Star 1 3 Star - Noob 3 1
Sativa - Arch 1 0 Arch - Sativa 4 0

bye - AIF AIF - bye
Noob - LisMat 2 2 LisMat - Noob 4 0
Arch - Debut 2 3 Debut - Arch 1 3
Sativa - Star 2 4 Star - Sativa 1 2

Star - LisMat 4 1 LisMat - Star 1 0
Arch - AIF 1 0 AIF - Arch 0 2
Sativa - Debut 1 2 Debut - Sativa 0 2
Noob - bye bye - Noob

Final table:

p w d l f a pts
STAR 12 9 1 2 32 13 28
SATIVA 12 8 0 4 22 17 24
ARCH 12 7 2 3 28 15 23
LISMAT 12 6 3 3 25 19 21
DEBUT 12 5 1 6 17 27 16
AIF 12 1 2 9 12 24 5
NOOB 12 0 3 9 16 37 3


Note the significant increase in the fortunes of the RP'ing new nation Debutesville - but not a ridiculous increase.

The other positions are more or less as predicted by ranking points, except that Sativa does slightly better than expected. But not ridiculously better.


I know this is late in the process, but I am happy to simulate whatever test runs might be requested.

Thanks to everyone for their patience and suggestions - I appreciate the need to make sure a brand new scorinator works, and I do think we have this spot on now.

I apologise to everyone concerned that my health over the weekend stopped me from posting this in detail prior to Baz announcing the vote - but my health is under control now.

with Version 1.1 up, pleaser try this senario.

Team A (ranked 7th) Nevers posts at all.
Team B (ranked 21st) posts about 10%
Team C (ranked 42th) posts about 25%
Team D (ranked 63th) posts about 50%
Team E (ranked 91st) posts about 80%
Team F (Debutistan) Max RP

thanks

and by "posts 10%" what Qazox means is "gets 10% of the RP bonus".

Oh, how are penalty kicks going be handled? When it comes to penalty shoot-outs, I keep on losing them. I win something like 10% of all game settled on them - in any competition.

I'll scorinate Qazox's request later today (during lunch) to the best of my ability, though the RP bonus doesn't work in a way that precisely fits Qaz's model. But I'll try my best to simulate something close to his model, and where it differs I'll try and explain how without revealing all of the RP bonus mechanics. In particular, there's a built in anti-spaam feature to the RP bonus that doesn't really fit Qaz's percentage model, but again, I'll see what I can do.

Incidentally, I'll also stress that my complete group scorination on the previous page involves a minor tweak done after Ariddia's earlier test runs on the same page. Both use the same corrected version of Z's scorinator, but my test run - which supercedes Ariddia's test runs - has a teensy tiny tweak to one of the score generation fields which happens to increase scores ever so slightly and also avoids having quite as many draws. And yes, Ari and myself are now using precisely the same version.

Oh, how are penalty kicks going be handled? When it comes to penalty shoot-outs, I keep on losing them. I win something like 10% of all game settled on them - in any competition.

Penalties are only an issue from the second stage of the finals onwards (they might conceivably also be necessary in a playoff tie, but we'll assume the real issue is the knock-out stages of the finals).

We have mechanisms in place for both extra time and penalties.

Essentially penalties involve quickly scorinating five results, and using those to determine whether a team scores a penalty or not over the five attempts.

As penalties are a crapshoot in real life, these five results are scorinated without bonuses, giving both teams an equal chance of winning the penalty shootout. Even Jeruselem stands a 50/50 chance of winning on penalties if a match gets that far.

Note that 'an equal chance of winning the penalty shootout' does _not_, however, equate with 'an equal chance of winning the match'. Full bonuses, ranking points, etc. still apply to the inital generation of the match score, which therefore still initially favours the team with the best combination of KPB points and RP bonus.

with Version 1.1 up, pleaser try this senario.

Team A (ranked 7th) Nevers posts at all.
Team B (ranked 21st) posts about 10%
Team C (ranked 42th) posts about 25%
Team D (ranked 63th) posts about 50%
Team E (ranked 91st) posts about 80%
Team F (Debutistan) Max RP

thanks

Here's the raw data I've scorinated. It's 1am and I'm up early for work tomorrow, so I'll give you the tables later. ;)

Home advantage has been factored in. Home team is listed first.

I've run 6 tests for each match, to help you get an overall statistical view.


Test 1 Test 2 Test 3 Test 4 Test 5 Test 6
Team A Team B 0-1 1-0 0-0 3-1 1-2 1-1
Team C Team D 3-1 0-2 3-3 3-2 2-2 2-0
Team E Team F 5-3 6-0 5-1 1-1 5-2 2-0
Team A Team F 3-2 0-2 0-0 2-2 5-3 5-3
Team B Team D 2-0 4-1 3-1 0-2 3-0 3-0
Team C Team E 1-2 2-0 3-3 2-0 4-2 0-1
Team A Team C 3-1 2-0 2-1 3-1 1-3 3-2
Team B Team E 2-2 0-2 5-2 3-2 2-3 3-3
Team D Team F 2-0 5-0 6-2 5-0 3-0 4-1
Team A Team D 4-2 4-2 5-2 3-1 4-3 3-1
Team B Team F 6-2 3-0 3-1 1-0 6-2 6-2
Team A Team E 1-0 1-2 4-1 2-2 2-1 2-1
Team B Team C 0-1 2-2 3-2 1-2 4-0 2-0
Team C Team F 4-3 3-2 3-1 6-1 6-2 2-3
Team D Team E 2-0 3-2 1-1 1-3 2-1 2-1
Team B Team A 0-2 2-2 1-1 0-1 2-2 2-0
Team D Team C 3-3 3-3 2-2 1-3 2-1 2-2
Team F Team E 2-6 0-4 2-0 1-3 2-6 1-3
Team F Team A 2-5 2-3 0-5 3-4 2-5 2-2
Team D Team B 3-1 1-1 2-2 1-4 2-0 0-4
Team E Team C 1-0 0-2 3-2 1-0 1-3 2-1
Team C Team A 1-1 3-2 1-2 2-3 2-1 1-0
Team E Team B 3-3 2-3 0-4 1-2 1-2 1-2
Team F Team D 3-1 2-4 2-0 1-3 1-2 2-4
Team D Team A 1-2 0-1 2-4 0-4 0-3 2-3
Team F Team B 1-6 0-2 2-1 0-2 2-4 1-1
Team E Team A 1-5 0-3 3-4 1-0 2-2 1-1
Team C Team B 1-1 3-2 2-0 2-1 3-1 2-1
Team F Team C 3-5 0-2 1-1 3-2 2-4 2-4
Team E Team D 3-3 3-3 2-3 2-2 0-1 2-4

Penalties are only an issue from the second stage of the finals onwards (they might conceivably also be necessary in a playoff tie, but we'll assume the real issue is the knock-out stages of the finals).

We have mechanisms in place for both extra time and penalties.

Essentially penalties involve quickly scorinating five results, and using those to determine whether a team scores a penalty or not over the five attempts.

As penalties are a crapshoot in real life, these five results are scorinated without bonuses, giving both teams an equal chance of winning the penalty shootout. Even Jeruselem stands a 50/50 chance of winning on penalties if a match gets that far.

Note that 'an equal chance of winning the penalty shootout' does _not_, however, equate with 'an equal chance of winning the match'. Full bonuses, ranking points, etc. still apply to the inital generation of the match score, which therefore still initially favours the team with the best combination of KPB points and RP bonus.

Thanks, I hope my luck gets better. I've lost count how many games I lose in penalties.

with Version 1.1 up, pleaser try this senario.

Team A (ranked 7th) Nevers posts at all.
Team B (ranked 21st) posts about 10%
Team C (ranked 42th) posts about 25%
Team D (ranked 63th) posts about 50%
Team E (ranked 91st) posts about 80%
Team F (Debutistan) Max RP

thanks

While Ariddia's asleep, I'll post my own supplemental answer to his reply to Qazox's request for a simulation, using data I generated earlier today.

While I'll do only one test run, as opposed to Ariddia's six, I'll provide a little more detail on the KPB ranks and methods used.

The teams - again using pre-World Cup 30 stats, simply because they're on my harddrive and are therefore easy to access - are:

rank KPB points
NEW MONTREAL STATES 7 44.76
THE ISLANDS OF QUTAR 21 29.56
THE MACABEES 42 12.92
ATHEISTIC RIGHT 63 5.63
ELVES SECURITY FORCES 91 5.14
DEBUTISTAN n/a 0

The RP bonus percentages requested by Qazox don't quite fit our RP bonus model, so - without giving away too much - the RP bonuses in this simulation are:

NEW MONTREAL STATES - no RP bonus
THE ISLANDS OF QUTAR - no RP bonus on matchdays 1,2,3,7,8,9; 25% RP bonus on matchdays 4,5,6,10
THE MACABEES - 25% RP bonus throughout
ATHEISTIC RIGHT - 50% RP bonus throughout
ELVES SECURITY FORCES - 75% RP bonus throughout
DEBUTISTAN - 100% RP bonus throughout

The scores are (with matchdays, for the purposes of Qutar RP bonus calculation, reading down each column; column 1 includes MDs 1-5, column 2 MDs 6-10):

NMS - QUTAR 1 1 MAC - NMS 1 1
MAC - AthR 0 1 QUTAR - DEBUT 1 2
ESF - DEBUT 5 1 AthR - ESF 1 2

NMS - AthR 3 2 ESF - NMS 1 2
ESF - QUTAR 3 3 MAC - QUTAR 1 4
DEBUT - MAC 2 2 AthR - DEBUT 3 2

NMS - DEBUT 3 0 QUTAR - NMS 1 2
QUTAR - AthR 4 3 AthR - MAC 1 2
MAC - ESF 0 0 DEBUT - ESF 0 1

NMS - MAC 2 1 AthR - NMS 1 4
DEBUT - QUTAR 1 1 QUTAR - ESF 2 3
ESF - AthR 1 2 MAC - DEBUT 1 1

NMS - ESF 4 2 DEBUT - NMS 1 1
QUTAR - MAC 3 1 AthR - QUTAR 1 2
DEBUT - AthR 2 2 ESF - MAC 1 5

The final table is:

p w d l f a pts
NMS 10 7 3 0 23 11 24
QUTAR 10 4 3 3 22 18 15
ESF 10 4 2 4 19 20 14
AthR 10 3 1 6 17 22 13
MAC 10 2 4 4 14 16 10
DEBUT 10 1 5 4 12 20 8

The lessons of which - from admittedly just one run - would appear to be:

1) The maximum RP bonus won't help a noob too much if the other low- to middle-ranked teams are themselves RP'ing reasonably consistently - though there's still room for upsets, such as Debutistan's shock 2-1 away upset of non-RP'ing Qutar.

2) But those low- to middle-ranked teams do themselves get a considerable improvement to their qualification chances, and in the middle of this Qazox-requested data run, things do rather even out - in this simulation, the Elves came desperately close to knocking off Qutar, and Atheistic Right also gained a good boost.

3) At the same time, a very-highly ranked team with a considerable KPB lead over the other teams in the group, in this case NMS, can still be expected to do well.


Additional runs can be done on request. Ariddia's asleep right now, but I'll be intermittently on-line for another 6-8 hours - I'll certainly make a last check this evening for simulation requests at 8:30PM Melbourne time, and might check as late as 10:00PM Melbourne time.

That sim looks pretty reasonable. Considering that it's mostly the middle teams who never RP that a team like Debustan should actually move up. Mostly what I want is a system that guarantees steady progress for the best RPers. Clearly I don't mind that I went from BoF to Top 10 in four cups, but I don't think that's a reasonable expectation for the progress of most teams. I'm much more comfortable with your scorinator after seeing these numbers than I was at first.

That sim looks pretty reasonable. Considering that it's mostly the middle teams who never RP that a team like Debustan should actually move up. Mostly what I want is a system that guarantees steady progress for the best RPers. Clearly I don't mind that I went from BoF to Top 10 in four cups, but I don't think that's a reasonable expectation for the progress of most teams. I'm much more comfortable with your scorinator after seeing these numbers than I was at first.

(posting as wrong nation again, sigh...)

Thanks.

I freely concede that, in retrospect, we had a couple of issues with the first version of the scorinator posted here, but the discussion in this thread helped to identify and iron out those difficulties, and with everyone's help, we've emerged at the other end with a much stronger scorination process.

And that's one of the things this thread is for, right?

Whether that'll be enough to see this bid win - especially given that voting's been underway for a couple of days now - is another matter, but I still hope that the combination of the richness of the RP environment we can offer, the putative hosts' experience, and the improved new scorinator will encourage people to consider the strengths of this bid.


I'm off to bed now - Ariddia can take over until tomorrow.

Table based on the first test of my most recently posted stats:


Team W D L GF GA Points Position
Team A 8 1 1 26 11 25 1st
Team B 4 3 3 22 15 15 3rd
Team C 4 3 3 20 18 15 4th
Team D 3 2 5 18 21 11 5th
Team E 4 3 3 23 22 15 2nd
Team F 1 0 9 21 43 3 6th

FTWP Approvs this Bid

FTWP Approvs this Bid

Great! Now that we know that, we can just call off the voting, no point in pressing an issue that is already solved.

Great! Now that we know that, we can just call off the voting, no point in pressing an issue that is already solved.

Now, now Vil.... no need to get grumpy about a competing bid... we're the grumpy old fogeys. By our standards, you're merely a slightly grumpy middle-aged fart.

And besides, West Pasco's noobish endorsement of our bid pales in comparison next to Sel Appa's profound and searingly incisive endorsement of the ESF/Clans bid.

Now, now Vil.... no need to get grumpy about a competing bid... we're the grumpy old fogeys. By our standards, you're merely a slightly grumpy middle-aged fart.


Don't worry, it's got nothing to do with being a competing bid, I've already got myself fairly convinced that as far as the WC is concerned, Vilita and Turori are two seperate entities and barely related. They don't speak for each other when it comes to situations as this :)

The Grumpy Old Fogeys bid: even Idealistic Young Newbies support it!

The Grumpy Old Fogeys bid: even Idealistic Young Newbies support it!

Actually, its not any old newbie ... its The Mushroom Kingship / A million other names. Probably one of the worst endorsements a bid could have :P

Vil,

Is it really TMK? How could that possibly be a bad endorsement? Clearly it shows that all types of people can enjoy the game. Both nations that are using nations that they used long ago (Ariddia and AIF) and people who drop their nations at alarming rates of speed.

Vil,

Is it really TMK? How could that possibly be a bad endorsement?

Do you know TMK? He is the one who set the bar that Okie, Ikeea and Sel Appa only strive to reach one day :) ...

My pet hamster would give a better endorsement than TMK. And that's really saying something, as I don't have a set hamster! :p

[OOC - I will be intentionally limiting the ability of visiting teams to manipulate Dreamed Realm reality for this tournament. This will not be like the infamous Cup of Harmony Dream Bubble. Minor temporary disruptions (for example, all of the supporters at a match have their skin turned the colour of one of the teams for the duration of that match only) will be tolerated - any attempts to seriously disturb reality for the Dreamed Realm or either team will be extremely strictly controlled]
No way! I loved that aspect of the Dreamed Realm...

...So much potential for violent settings and improbable events...

And it was infamous? Er...I didn't have anything to do with that, did I?

Actually, its not any old newbie ... its The Mushroom Kingship / A million other names. Probably one of the worst endorsements a bid could have :P
*Clears voice*

Do you know TMK? He is the one who set the bar that Okie, Ikeea and Sel Appa only strive to reach one day :) ...
*Okie scoffs*
*Okie sets a bar of n00bdom unrivaled in NS, through my complete scorinator illiteracy, bad spelling and total lack of appreciation for this sport you call "football".