NationStates Jolt Archive

Welcome, to those staring in horror and cowering in the back, to the

CasFM World Cup Thirty-three Bid Thread

You've been warned.

=Format=

The format will be a two-round structure.

Round One will feature however-many necessary groups of six playing all group members home and away, seeded by initial rankings based on the World Cup's own KPB system. If the number of teams signed up surpasses 84, 60 teams will move on from this round to round two. If we get less than 84 signups, 55 teams will move on from this round. To determine qualifiers, the top finishers will be accommodated until the group finishing in a particular position cannot enter as a whole, from which point the teams with the highest point total will qualify for the next round. For example, if there are, say... Thirteen Groups, all First, Second, and Third seeds will move on. Then, all Fourth seeds will be ranked on a single table and the top seven will be allowed into the next round. If 15 groups were used, the top four finishers in their group would be allowed through to the next round. In the case of 17 groups, all first, second and third place finishers will be allowed through, and the top 9 in a table of all the fourth place finishers will be allowed into round two.

Round Two will be either 11 (in the case of 55) or 12 (in the case of 60) groups of five, ranked by their performance in Round One alone. These teams will play each of their group opponents once, although each team will have two home and two away games. The top thirty will move on to the World Cup Finals. In either case, the first and second place teams from each group will qualify, and the third place teams will be organized into a single table and seeded top-vs-bottom for playoffs. In the case of an 11 team group, the top five teams on this table will get an automatic finals spot and the bottom six will playoff for the remaining three. In the case of 12, all teams will play a playoff match.

=Scorination=

The scorinator for this bid will be YCAC, which is another evil creation of Casari. Tiebreaks will be, of course, GD, GF, Number of wins, and Head-to-Head results.

Now, of course, I'd like to show a bit of evidence. In a test series of the following teams:

Team KPB
A 40
B 20
C 12
D 8
E 5
F 3

4,150 test groups were done with these teams, resulting in the following distribution of positions: (Note: Any ties that would have gone to head-to-head results to break were in these tests allowed to stand, as that's a lot more work that I cared to do)

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
A 2638 930 356 147 61 18
B 852 1372 857 562 341 166
C 332 782 1003 885 683 465
D 183 490 828 951 947 751
E 103 348 626 894 1069 1110
F 46 231 476 723 1040 1634


In percents, these work out to:

1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th
A 63.57% 22.41% 8.58% 3.54% 1.47% 0.43%
B 20.53% 33.06% 20.65% 13.54% 8.22% 4.00%
C 8.00% 18.84% 24.17% 21.33% 16.46% 11.20%
D 4.41% 11.81% 19.95% 22.92% 22.82% 18.10%
E 2.48% 8.39% 15.08% 21.54% 25.76% 26.75%
F 1.11% 5.57% 11.47% 17.42% 25.06% 39.37%


From this, it's apparent that even the most unlikely team has a non-negligable chance to qualify, and even win it's group, which is something I like. It's also observable that the top seed, team A, was considerably likely to move on, which was something that made a lot of sense to me personally.

Any test groupings can be requested of Casari in this thread. But ask politely.

=Roleplaying=

Aah, Roleplaying. Without it, the World Cup is a thankless and boring persuit.

The System: The RP-counting system will go on a range of 1 to 10 RP points, each of which counts for 0.075 of a KPB point. Now, before your mouths water about exactly how much of an improvement you can get when you get 10s every day, the scale is intended to have considerable amounts of room at the top, and 10s every day would constitute you writing the Great American novel (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_American_novel) on the subject of an imaginary soccer team competing in an imaginary World Cup.

However, there are a list of ideas that will be looked for, from most to least. The first three are important, the second two not so much, but still are enouraged.

-Creativity
-Originality
-International Cooperation (A storyline that has more than one nation involved in it will be thought of higher than a storyline that's just about one nation)
-Length
-A tenuous connection to the World Cup or the game of Soccer as a whole

OOC Comments: There are to be no OOC comments in any IC thread. Hense, why it's an IC thread. If there are any OOC comments to be said, the place for those would be in the discussion thread and not the RP thread. If you spot something, say, wrong in a table, or a schedule, or something else, feel free to TG us or take a good IC shot at us.

The Scores Thread: Posting in the Scores thread without the express written permission of the hosts will result in the loss of any accumulated RP bonus for it's first offense and forfeiture of the next match for all offenses afterward. If it is after a person's elimination from the World Cup, polite conversations will take place on the topic of punishment.

=Questions=

Feel free to phrase them nicely and ask. :)

OK, I've got a question... What the hell is with the crazy qualifying? I'm all for an experiment with having more than one round of qualifying, but only in the way that the lower ranked teams play each other in order to get rid of all the non-RPing n00bs. This, in my eyes, appears to be a bit of a ramshackle structure.

11 groups, too? Surely cutting the field to 50 and having 10 groups is better?

The choice of the structure was for a few reasons.

1) That all nations should get a window of significant enough size to establish a certain level of RPing and participation before deciding who get cut. Having to deal with a situation on the opposite end of the spectrum in a Cherry Cup where all the new people were forced to be in a two-leg play in series that resulted in six being eliminated on the third day seemed unfair to no end, and even more, made me go "Damn, if I lost and got kicked out right away, I'd probably never go back."

2) In the same breath, there's no real reason for anyone to get a free ticket partway through qualifying other than the belief that they've performed well enough in the past that they think they deserve it. It gives the same opportunities to everyone to lay out exactly how much they want to participate before sending some to go play with themselves.

3) 55 was chosen to make the number of teams shed in both rounds more or less equal, under the assumption that we'll make it to 82 before the cup starts. Assuming that participation stays at the same level it has for the last several cups, and we get 92 teams entered, the cut to 60 was chosen for the same reason.

Thanks for asking nicely, too. :p

I protest that RP bonus scores of 10 for writing the Great American novel unfairly discriminate against RPers who may want to write the great Canadian (including Quebecois), Australian, European, British, New Zealander, Singaporean or miscellaneous other novel.

Oh look, you'd be weirdly cranky too if you were facing 30 hours on Korean airlines from DC to Melbourne in the next couple of days.

While I can understand the desire to write the Great Non-American Novel in our non-American participants, I have to state that as American, my knowledge of your literary ideals are spotty at best. :p But feel free to substitute your own unattainable literary goal.

Sounds good, but a couple of quick questions.. (1)for each leg of the qualifying, will the same RP bonus be applied for each round? and (2) will you re-seed the 2nd round of qualifing i.e the better record during 1st part= better seed in the 2nd part or will they both be rank-based ?

1) The RP bonus will be applied and be built on throughout the entire competition, i.e. it won't be reset or anything at any point.

2) The first round seedings will be rank-based, and the second round seedings will be based only on a team's record from the first round, independent of ranks.

1) The RP bonus will be applied and be built on throughout the entire competition, i.e. it won't be reset or anything at any point.

2) The first round seedings will be rank-based, and the second round seedings will be based only on a team's record from the first round, independent of ranks.

Ok. thanks... especially on the 2nd question. This two-tiered format intrigues me, as it could possibly lead to "regional" qualifiers.

My questions on this two qualifier thing:

Are there byes?

Then if so, who gets the byes?

Is this like the CONCACAF qualifying format? (minus the first 2 leg rnd part)

Can you give us an example of how such a schedule would work? With tables and the like.

If there were byes, I would have said there were byes. :p No byes.

It's not a lot like the CONCACAF format. There they have the first knockout round, then a round of three groups of four, and then the final round with a group of six.

Guessing, because it's the easiest to automate, that we will have a more or less typical entry level of 92, 90 teams were selected to fill the field. A field of 12 BoF nations were assigned 0 to 1.13 KPB points, the max possible to get from the BoF tournement, and named BoF1 to BoF12. Four rankless teams were also added, named Noob1 to Noob4. The rest of the field was filled with a quasi-random selection of teams and used their Pre-32 KPB rankings. Note the seed is not the team's rank, but the number the team would be assigned in a draw situation.

Seed Team KPB
1 Squornshelous 56.84
2 Krytenia 53.17
3 Oliverry 52.63
4 Starblaydia 51.97
5 New Montreal States 50.42
6 Liverpool England 45.89
7 Ariddia 40.9
8 Jeruselem 38.33
9 Commerce Heights 37.17
10 Milchama 36.59
11 Rejistania 35.92
12 Schiavonia 35.87
13 Bettia 35.27
14 The Archregimancy 33.56
15 The Islands of Qutar 31.98

16 Bazalonia 31.58
17 Spaam 30.89
18 Spruitland 28.36
19 Quakmybush 27.91
20 The Lowland Clans 26.13
21 Northern Caesarea 26.02
22 Tadjikistan 25.61
23 Cuation 24.71
24 Turori 23.3
25 Az-cz 22.42
26 Qazox 21.02
27 Chicanada 20.92
28 Errinundera 20.75
29 Nedalia 20.1
30 Vilita 18.67

31 Geisenfried 18.49
32 Andossa Se Mitrin Vega 18.49
33 Cataduanes 17.17
34 Tynelia 16.76
35 Aurendia 16.49
36 Becquerelia 16.4
37 Total n Utter Insanity 15.93
38 Wentland 15.27
39 Demot 15.04
40 Dance 2 Revolution 13.39
41 Elves Security Forces 13.39
42 Green wombat 13.36
43 Magnus Valerius 13.06
44 McPsychoville 12.71
45 Lisburn Mateys 12.66

46 Rorysville 12.54
47 Sativaville 12.43
48 Yafor 2 12.19
49 Marceau State 11.03
50 Tessan 11.01
51 Ropa-Topia 10.88
52 The Mice of Miceland 10.61
53 Kericia 10.44
54 Haraki 10.42
55 Anathematic Republics 10.05
56 Vuam and Isma 9.96
57 Dorian and Sonya 9.93
58 Hockey Canada 9.43
59 Nebuleux 9.3
60 Alasdair I Frosticus 8.79

61 Spindomia 8.71
62 Iansisle 8.53
63 The Mushroom Kingship 8.4
64 Backwardistan 8.14
65 Eseck 7.22
66 Harlesburg 7.1
67 Sel Appa 6.45
68 Rordia 5.85
69 Commerce Heights JSY 4.5
70 Bushes Been Quaked 3.61
71 Bostopia 3
72 Assegai Developments 2.75
73 Cafundeu 2.44
74 Benlandngdo 1.93
75 BoF1 1.13

76 BoF2 1
77 BoF3 1
78 BoF4 0.88
79 BoF5 0.75
80 BoF6 0.63
81 BoF7 0.63
82 BoF8 0.5
83 BoF9 0.5
84 BoF10 0.38
85 BoF11 0.13
86 BoF12 0.12
87 Noob1 0
88 Noob2 0
89 Noob3 0
90 Noob4 0

These teams were drawn into 15 groups of six, and their groups were simmed, to get the following results:

Rank Group 1 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Errinundera 17 10 5 2 3 3 14 11
2 Milchama 14 10 3 5 2 3 15 12
3 Magnus Valerius 14 10 3 5 2 1 17 16
4 Rorysville 13 10 3 4 3 0 12 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 BoF1 10 10 2 4 4 0 17 17
6 BoF8 10 10 2 4 4 -7 11 18

Rank Group 2 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 The Lowland Clans 22 10 7 1 2 12 18 6
2 Krytenia 20 10 6 2 2 15 21 6
3 Sativaville 16 10 5 1 4 -2 9 11
4 Benlandngdo 15 10 4 3 3 -1 9 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Green wombat 7 10 1 4 5 -12 10 22
6 BoF12 4 10 1 1 8 -12 6 18

Rank Group 3 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Starblaydia 26 10 8 2 0 18 23 5
2 Nedalia 13 10 3 4 3 -2 10 12
3 Noob2 12 10 3 3 4 -3 8 11
4 The Mushroom Kingship 12 10 3 3 4 -8 7 15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Andossa Se Mitrin Vega 9 10 2 3 5 -2 6 8
6 Kericia 9 10 2 3 5 -3 9 12

Rank Group 4 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Oliverry 24 10 7 3 0 14 18 4
2 Eseck 13 10 3 4 3 1 13 12
3 Tessan 13 10 2 7 1 1 9 8
4 Az-cz 13 10 3 4 3 -1 9 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Noob3 8 10 2 2 6 -7 7 14
6 Demot 8 10 2 2 6 -8 6 14

Rank Group 5 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Spaam 21 10 7 0 3 10 17 7
2 Total n Utter Insanity 19 10 6 1 3 4 17 13
3 The Islands of Qutar 19 10 6 1 3 2 13 11
4 Alasdair I Frosticus 13 10 4 1 5 -1 9 10
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 BoF6 13 10 4 1 5 -2 12 14
6 Bushes Been Quaked 3 10 1 0 9 -13 6 19

Rank Group 6 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Rejistania 20 10 6 2 2 15 20 5
2 Anathematic Republics 19 10 6 1 3 8 16 8
3 Geisenfried 15 10 4 3 3 1 16 15
4 Tadjikistan 12 10 3 3 4 -7 7 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Backwardistan 12 10 3 3 4 -8 10 18
6 BoF2 5 10 1 2 7 -9 5 14

Rank Group 7 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Jeruselem 19 10 5 4 1 12 20 8
2 Rordia 18 10 5 3 2 2 15 13
3 Chicanada 15 10 4 3 3 2 15 13
4 Dorian and Sonya 14 10 4 2 4 0 12 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Elves Security Forces 11 10 3 2 5 -2 12 14
6 BoF11 5 10 1 2 7 -14 8 22

Rank Group 8 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Quakmybush 22 10 7 1 2 11 21 10
2 The Archregimancy 21 10 6 3 1 7 15 8
3 Aurendia 13 10 3 4 3 2 16 14
4 Vuam and Isma 12 10 3 3 4 -5 11 16
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Sel Appa 8 10 2 2 6 -5 12 17
6 BoF3 6 10 1 3 6 -10 11 21

Rank Group 9 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Commerce Heights 18 10 5 3 2 5 10 5
2 Lisburn Mateys 17 10 5 2 3 4 17 13
3 Turori 16 10 4 4 2 2 10 8
4 Hockey Canada 15 10 4 3 3 4 18 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Bostopia 10 10 2 4 4 -5 10 15
6 BoF4 4 10 0 4 6 -10 8 18

Rank Group 10 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 New Montreal States 21 10 6 3 1 7 17 10
2 Dance 2 Revolution 19 10 6 1 3 9 14 5
3 Vilita 17 10 5 2 3 4 16 12
4 Nebuleux 16 10 5 1 4 0 13 13
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 BoF5 8 10 2 2 6 -10 5 15
6 Iansisle 4 10 1 1 8 -10 5 15

Rank Group 11 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Qazox 20 10 6 2 2 8 19 11
2 Liverpool England 19 10 6 1 3 11 17 6
3 The Mice of Miceland 19 10 6 1 3 7 15 8
4 Wentland 13 10 4 1 5 -6 12 18
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Assegai Developments 8 10 2 2 6 -11 7 18
6 Noob1 7 10 2 1 7 -9 8 17

Rank Group 12 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Bazalonia 28 10 9 1 0 15 23 8
2 Ariddia 19 10 6 1 3 10 19 9
3 Yafor 2 14 10 4 2 4 3 15 12
4 McPsychoville 12 10 3 3 4 -5 7 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Cafundeu 6 10 1 3 6 -12 12 24
6 Noob4 5 10 1 2 7 -11 7 18

Rank Group 13 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Schiavonia 25 10 8 1 1 15 18 3
2 Cuation 21 10 6 3 1 10 14 4
3 Harlesburg 15 10 4 3 3 -2 8 10
4 Tynelia 9 10 3 0 7 -11 11 22
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 BoF10 8 10 2 2 6 -8 11 19
6 Marceau State 7 10 2 1 7 -4 10 14

Rank Group 14 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Spruitland 20 10 6 2 2 10 17 7
2 Bettia 20 10 6 2 2 5 14 9
3 Haraki 18 10 6 0 4 3 14 11
4 Commerce Heights JSY 12 10 3 3 4 1 15 14
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Becquerelia 11 10 3 2 5 -5 7 12
6 BoF9 3 10 0 3 7 -14 7 21

Rank Group 15 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Squornshelous 24 10 7 3 0 15 20 5
2 Spindomia 16 10 4 4 2 3 16 13
3 Cataduanes 13 10 3 4 3 1 16 15
4 Northern Caesarea 12 10 3 3 4 -2 10 12
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Ropa-Topia 11 10 3 2 5 -5 10 15
6 BoF7 5 10 1 2 7 -12 8 20

Cutting 30 teams for the second round, the top 4 from each are grouped and reseeded based on their first round performance.

Rank Group 1 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Starblaydia 7 4 2 1 1 2 5 3
2 Harlesburg 6 4 2 0 2 -3 2 5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Haraki 5 4 1 2 1 1 4 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Total n Utter Insanity 5 4 1 2 1 0 3 3
5 Wentland 4 4 1 1 2 0 6 6

Rank Group 2 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 The Lowland Clans 9 4 3 0 1 3 9 6
2 Vilita 7 4 2 1 1 1 4 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Dance 2 Revolution 5 4 1 2 1 0 6 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 McPsychoville 5 4 1 2 1 0 5 5
5 Aurendia 1 4 0 1 3 -4 3 7

Rank Group 3 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Krytenia 10 4 3 1 0 7 7 0
2 Chicanada 7 4 2 1 1 3 5 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Rorysville 6 4 2 0 2 2 7 5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Anathematic Republics 4 4 1 1 2 -6 3 9
5 Noob2 1 4 0 1 3 -6 2 8

Rank Group 4 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Spaam 9 4 3 0 1 6 10 4
2 The Islands of Qutar 9 4 3 0 1 1 8 7
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Spindomia 5 4 1 2 1 2 4 2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Alasdair I Frosticus 4 4 1 1 2 -3 5 8
5 Cataduanes 1 4 0 1 3 -6 2 8

Rank Group 5 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Ariddia 10 4 3 1 0 5 11 6
2 Cuation 7 4 2 1 1 3 6 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Commerce Heights 7 4 2 1 1 1 4 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Northern Caesarea 2 4 0 2 2 -3 4 7
5 Benlandngdo 1 4 0 1 3 -6 2 8

Rank Group 6 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 The Archregimancy 9 4 3 0 1 3 4 1
2 Az-cz 7 4 2 1 1 1 4 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Geisenfried 5 4 1 2 1 -1 2 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Turori 4 4 1 1 2 0 3 3
5 Jeruselem 3 4 1 0 3 -3 1 4

Rank Group 7 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Oliverry 9 4 3 0 1 7 9 2
2 Hockey Canada 7 4 2 1 1 1 2 1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Milchama 7 4 2 1 1 -2 2 4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Rejistania 6 4 2 0 2 1 6 5
5 Commerce Heights JSY 0 4 0 0 4 -7 1 8

Rank Group 8 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Rordia 9 4 3 0 1 3 6 3
2 Squornshelous 7 4 2 1 1 3 6 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Spruitland 6 4 2 0 2 0 4 4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Tadjikistan 4 4 1 1 2 1 4 3
5 Magnus Valerius 3 4 1 0 3 -7 3 10

Rank Group 9 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 New Montreal States 12 4 4 0 0 7 9 2
2 Nebuleux 7 4 2 1 1 0 3 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Vuam and Isma 4 4 1 1 2 0 3 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 The Mice of Miceland 4 4 1 1 2 -2 3 5
5 Tessan 1 4 0 1 3 -5 1 6

Rank Group 10 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Errinundera 8 4 2 2 0 7 8 1
2 Schiavonia 8 4 2 2 0 5 8 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Bettia 5 4 1 2 1 -2 4 6
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Yafor 2 4 0 3 1 -2 3 5
5 The Mushroom Kingship 1 4 0 1 3 -8 4 12

Rank Group 11 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Dorian and Sonya 8 4 2 2 0 3 6 3
2 Nedalia 7 4 2 1 1 1 5 4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Liverpool England 4 4 1 1 2 1 6 5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Bazalonia 4 4 1 1 2 -2 3 5
5 Sativaville 3 4 0 3 1 -3 4 7

Rank Group 12 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Quakmybush 8 4 2 2 0 2 4 2
2 Qazox 7 4 2 1 1 2 5 3
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Eseck 5 4 1 2 1 -1 3 4
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Lisburn Mateys 4 4 1 1 2 -1 4 5
5 Tynelia 3 4 1 0 3 -2 4 6

The Top Two from each group qualify for the Finals, while the third place teams are reseeded and play at the home of the higher ranked team for the final six spaces.

Commerce Heights 0:1 Vuam and Isma
Milchama 1:0 Liverpool England
Rorysville 1:2 Bettia
Spruitland 3:1 Geisenfried
Spindomia 1:0 Eseck
Haraki 1:0 Dance 2 Revolution

And that makes the field. To look back on who qualified, the breakdown is, with a star indicating nations who qualified:

1 Squornshelous 56.84 *
2 Krytenia 53.17 *
3 Oliverry 52.63 *
4 Starblaydia 51.97 *
5 New Montreal States 50.42 *
6 Liverpool England 45.89
7 Ariddia 40.9 *
8 Jeruselem 38.33
9 Commerce Heights 37.17
10 Milchama 36.59 *
11 Rejistania 35.92
12 Schiavonia 35.87 *
13 Bettia 35.27 *
14 The Archregimancy 33.56 *
15 The Islands of Qutar 31.98 *

16 Bazalonia 31.58
17 Spaam 30.89 *
18 Spruitland 28.36 *
19 Quakmybush 27.91 *
20 The Lowland Clans 26.13 *
21 Northern Caesarea 26.02
22 Tadjikistan 25.61
23 Cuation 24.71 *
24 Turori 23.3
25 Az-cz 22.42 *
26 Qazox 21.02 *
27 Chicanada 20.92 *
28 Errinundera 20.75 *
29 Nedalia 20.1 *
30 Vilita 18.67 *

31 Geisenfried 18.49
32 Andossa Se Mitrin Vega 18.49
33 Cataduanes 17.17
34 Tynelia 16.76
35 Aurendia 16.49
36 Becquerelia 16.4
37 Total n Utter Insanity 15.93
38 Wentland 15.27
39 Demot 15.04
40 Dance 2 Revolution 13.39
41 Elves Security Forces 13.39
42 Green wombat 13.36
43 Magnus Valerius 13.06
44 McPsychoville 12.71
45 Lisburn Mateys 12.66

46 Rorysville 12.54
47 Sativaville 12.43
48 Yafor 2 12.19
49 Marceau State 11.03
50 Tessan 11.01
51 Ropa-Topia 10.88
52 The Mice of Miceland 10.61
53 Kericia 10.44
54 Haraki 10.42 *
55 Anathematic Republics 10.05
56 Vuam and Isma 9.96 *
57 Dorian and Sonya 9.93 *
58 Hockey Canada 9.43 *
59 Nebuleux 9.3 *
60 Alasdair I Frosticus 8.79

61 Spindomia 8.71 *
62 Iansisle 8.53
63 The Mushroom Kingship 8.4
64 Backwardistan 8.14
65 Eseck 7.22
66 Harlesburg 7.1 *
67 Sel Appa 6.45
68 Rordia 5.85 *
69 Commerce Heights JSY 4.5
70 Bushes Been Quaked 3.61
71 Bostopia 3
72 Assegai Developments 2.75
73 Cafundeu 2.44
74 Benlandngdo 1.93
75 BoF1 1.13

76 BoF2 1
77 BoF3 1
78 BoF4 0.88
79 BoF5 0.75
80 BoF6 0.63
81 BoF7 0.63
82 BoF8 0.5
83 BoF9 0.5
84 BoF10 0.38
85 BoF11 0.13
86 BoF12 0.12
87 Noob1 0
88 Noob2 0
89 Noob3 0
90 Noob4 0


So, there were 8 qualifying upsets in this round.

So, there were 8 qualifying upsets in this round.


Actually, I find this disturbing and think it shows that work needs to be done.

The fact that 4 of the top 11 ranked teams failed to advance to the finals is a sign of a scorinator that needs work.

Remember, upsets should reward teams that have RPed. These simulations do not factor in RP. On the whole, one would assume that a scorinator should be set up where, before considering RP, the higher ranked team should be favored, especially when they are in the top 10-11 rankings possible. It should be when a higher ranked team lacks RP and a lower ranked team has lots of it that upsets should be happening.

Your system, as it appears now, seems as if it would simply be random as to which teams suffered from upsets and which teams would advance in their place, because it doesnt seem as if there is any current structure that allows the unaffected results to come out properly.

In your simulation, in the first round of qualifying, the top 4 teams advance. Therefore, a #3 seed should typically advance. Again, with only rank as the seperator, in general the groups should go to form with the odd tie of course, maybe 2 or 3 sways from normal - but 5 - FIVE #3 seeds did not advance thats 1 in 3.

These numbers would be fine if these were teams that did not RP, but they are disturbing with the knowledge that the only factor separating these squads is rank. These type of results suggest that the level of random is to the point where RPing teams could actually suffer more as a result of random rather than benefit, because there seems little strong correlation on the base simulations that they would be RPing to affect.


Additionally, just by analyzing the percentages you provide in the opening thread, with no RP considered, the bottom ranked team advanced to the second stage 35% of the time. I do not believe that a n00b nation that has 1 career post, its sign up post, should have a 35% chance of advancing to round 2, and should not have a nearly 7% chance of finishing in the top 2 of their group. Without RP, I am of the opinion that the % chance of a non-RPing bottom ranked side finishing in the top 2 should be under 1%. 7% in a 15 team group means, by probability, one of the groups (1 Group = 6.67% of the 16 groups) is likely to have a non-RPing n00b nation with one lifetime post winning the group. This, again, does not in any way win over my support. I don't mind RPing low ranked teams advancing, they should, but to say that one n00b nation with no RPs is going to finish in the top 2 in their qualifying group? No, that should not be.

You know, it's a wonder why people actually bother to bid.

Rank Group 11 Pts GP W D L GD GF GA
1 Qazox 20 10 6 2 2 8 19 11
2 Liverpool England 19 10 6 1 3 11 17 6
3 The Mice of Miceland 19 10 6 1 3 7 15 8
4 Wentland 13 10 4 1 5 -6 12 18
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
5 Assegai Developments 8 10 2 2 6 -11 7 18
6 Noob1 7 10 2 1 7 -9 8 17



(Jokingly....)Any way that you can ensure this result???? lol

As long as you're able to stay lightened up to a considerable amount, anything is possible. :p

Casari,

You didn't say, in your simulation, that no RP bonuses were applied. I presume they weren't. In the actual Cup they would be. That being so, in response to Vilita, noobs not RPing would do worse than your sim suggests, simply because some of the other nations in the group would be RPing.

Casari,

You didn't say, in your simulation, that no RP bonuses were applied. I presume they weren't. In the actual Cup they would be. That being so, in response to Vilita, noobs not RPing would do worse than your sim suggests, simply because some of the other nations in the group would be RPing.

And if no one RPed - do you think that the n00b should qualify 35% of the time?

The point does not lie in the n00b qualifying, the point lies in the fact that, in order for a scorinator to properly reward RP nations, it must first perform in a more predictable nature without RP. This scorinator does not seem to do this, so since the base scorinations are much more extremely varied - this increases the possibility that the effect a nation would gain due to its RP would be negated by the vast extremes relevant in the base scorination.

These numbers the Casari presents are good numbers - if these were results considering high RP low ranked teams. I think these are good numbers to shoot for in an end product - but not in a raw base product. The numbers should be lower, with the current levels of success achievable through RP, not gifted without a post.

This should not stand in the way of the bid, because there are plenty of scorinators out there that provide decent result trends and have been through many trials - but if they plan to use this new scorinator then it would simply have to be improved before I considered voting for the bid, whether or not i support the rest of it

Scorinators like what, VSS? :p That did a spectacular job rewarding RPing nations.

Scorinators like what, VSS? :p That did a spectacular job rewarding RPing nations.
Glad you agree with the rest of us :)

And if no one RPed - do you think that the n00b should qualify 35% of the time?
Well, if no-one RPd, would anyone notice?

Scorinators like what, VSS? :p That did a spectacular job rewarding RPing nations.

Like SIS. With a bigger bonus. ;)

Well, if no-one RPd, would anyone notice?
Just because someone isn’t RPing doesn’t mean they aren’t paying attention to the Cup…

Could you provide a table similar to that in the first post, but with a low RP bonus for team A (i.e., what they might get for posting a match report every few days) and a high RP bonus for team B (i.e., what they might get for having insane amounts of time like Az-cz)? It’d be nice to see how the RP bonus affects the chances of established RPing teams getting eliminated and non-RPing n00bs advancing.

In this set of 5000 first group test sims, Team A was given an RP bonus reflecting a few fair-to-middling RPs, and Team B was awarded an RP bonus reflecting massive RPing on a level that suggests having no life whatsoever.

The results of the sims were as follows (note the table has it's axes-or-whatever are reversed)

A B C D E F
1st 3318 1214 263 131 51 24
2nd 1134 2135 810 496 278 151
3rd 402 943 1418 1056 720 461
4th 105 445 1208 1299 1035 909
5th 32 194 830 1156 1466 1320
6th 9 69 471 862 1450 2135


This results in the following percentages, with the bottom row being the total for all the first round qualifying positions:

A B C D E F
1st 66.36% 24.28% 5.26% 2.62% 1.02% 0.48%
2nd 22.68% 42.70% 16.20% 9.92% 5.56% 3.02%
3rd 8.04% 18.86% 28.36% 21.12% 14.40% 9.22%
4th 2.10% 8.90% 24.16% 25.98% 20.70% 18.18%
5th 0.64% 3.88% 16.60% 23.12% 29.32% 26.40%
6th 0.18% 1.38% 9.42% 17.24% 29.00% 42.70%
99.18% 94.74% 73.98% 59.64% 41.68% 30.90%


Just for reverence, then, this last one looks at the change from the first set of data:

A B C D E F
1st 2.79% 3.75% -2.74% -1.79% -1.46% -0.63%
2nd 0.27% 9.64% -2.64% -1.89% -2.83% -2.55%
3rd -0.54% -1.79% 4.19% 1.17% -0.68% -2.25%
4th -1.44% -4.64% 2.83% 3.06% -0.84% 0.76%
5th -0.83% -4.34% 0.14% 0.30% 3.56% 1.34%
6th -0.25% -2.62% -1.78% -0.86% 2.25% 3.33%
1.08% 6.96% 1.64% 0.55% -5.81% -4.67%


Funny, RPing seemed to help, particularly the second seed. An interesting thing that popped up is that it made the third and fourth seeded teams slightly more likely to finish on the top part of the table as well.

And yet the first seed is still 3 times more likely to win the group... Don't know if thats an ideal situation...

Aye, it's fascinating that the first seeds are most likely to win a group that gets them to... the second qualifying round, which is by nature at a bit higher tension level than the first.

How does a multi-tiered qualifiers interact with the KpB? What are your thoughts on what should happen to the rankings if your (or the JSY-Hurd bid) is successful?

The sim also cut LE from the finals.

Gets my vote. :p

My thought is that the rankings are the rankings. With this bid, everyone plays a minimum of ten meaningful games. In my view, the rankings in this case could and should work in an identical fashion as they would in a normal qualifying round.

And if you don't like the KPBs, this is your chance at making inroads into them and gutting them. :p

so what you're saying is that all of the matches would count regularly towards the qualifiers and if you get eliminated early, tough luck?

I believe that that's fair, or at least much more so than either having each match count more for teams which don't make the second round and less for teams that do, or the top seeds having a great amount of KPB points resting on 3 results.