NationStates Jolt Archive

This is an IC poll connected with events described here: http://forums2.jolt.co.uk/showthread.php?t=354264&page=36&pp=15

It consists of three seperate but related referendums.

The first posts the question: Should Saxmere be an independent nation?
There are two possible answers to the questions: Yes, it should be independent or no, it should remain part of the Confederation of Soveriegn States.

The second question is: If Saxmere remains in the Confederation should it maintain the status quo or should it have the status of an autonomous region within the Confederation?
Again, there are two answers: Either maintain the status quo or opt to be an autonomous region.

The final question is: Whether an indepent or autonomous Saxmere should return to the status of a Grand Duchy?
The two answers are: No, it should remain republican or yes, it should restore the grand ducal throne.

Please vote only once for each question.

Thanks.

bump

OOC: I don't think you're going to get a particularly clear result here because a lot of people will answer the poll before they read the first post, and it is hardly straight forward just from the poll.

OOC: I think I'll feed the poll results into the spreadsheet I use for elections and see how it comes out.

OOC: bad idea dude. These polls are waaaay too fraud-sensitive.

OOC: What I'll do is plug the numbers in as a randomizing element in a district-by-district spreadsheet to calculate the vote.

OOC: After running this poll through my election spreadsheet, here are the tallies so far:

For Independence: 50%
For union with Confederation: 48.6%

For the Status Quo in a union: 27.5%
For Autonomy in a union: 60.6%

For a republican government: 46.99%
For a grand ducal government: 47.77%

These numbers seem to feel right to me given Saxmere's composition. As everyone can see, the vote is very, very close to the first and third points, so keep voting in the poll!

OOC: Booh.

OOC: Yay!

OOC: Yay!

bump

OOC: I object to Knoot's cheating in the poll. ;)

OOC: Pfffft.

OOC:

Latest update after running the "raw" numbers through my election generator:

For independence: 50.7%
For remaining in the C.S.S.: 47.3%

For the status quo (if no independence): 29.2%
For autonomy (" " "): 59.2%

For a republic: 46.9%
For a grand duchy: 49.6%

Still very, very close on the first and second questions...

OOC: Do you just invert the results? 0_o

Well, Knoot, if you had an election and everyone voted for the social conservatives, how would you RP it? :P

OOC: Do you just invert the results? 0_o

OOC:

Well, it is like the program I use to do my elections. I give each party an advantage/disadvantage based on RP, and have some advantage for some parties in their "blue ribbon" seats (Constantinople Party in the country, PSA in industrial working class areas, LCF in New Rome, PFP in Montmanuel). Then I added in the numbers provided by the poll (although given that last time, that poll was rigged, this time I will be just getting people I RP with to TG me what their votes would be in such a poll). The final modifiers to the randomiser were substantially different from the poll results, but the poll results did have a big impact.

Given that IC there is little doubt that independence with the Grand Duke is the more popular option, I would suggest that the poll results are having a strong impact on the IC referenda results, Knooty.

Panto's system is sooo detailed. *Oggles it*

OOC:

Actually, I think my system may be even more complicated...

I have broken my countries into several different demographic groups - business elites, white collar, blue collar, unionists, farmers, religious voters, government/military types and intellectuals. Then I assign preferences for each party (or referendum option) to each group. The preference is weighted 2/3 for what I instinctually assign each group (i.e. in Saxmere business elites want to stay in the Confederation while unionists want out) and 1/3 for the poll results.

Then, I have created each voting district in the country (for example, there are 100 districts in Excalbia) and assigned each district a demographic distribution - that is how many business elites compared to how many unionists. Then, the vote in each district is determined by the preferences of the demographic groups and the distribution of the demographic groups. So, an affluent suburb might vote to stay in Confederation while a working class neighborhood will vote for independence.

I plan to use the same system to determine the next Excalbian election. (Shameless add: Keep an eye out for the Cycle Begins thread; soon there will be a question and answer session for the parties...)

P.S. Yes, I guess I am a geek...

Wow...just wow. I love Excalbia now. :)

Damn, Excalbia's system is more complicated.

Oh well, I still wrote mine in C++ instead of wimping out and using a spreadsheet! :P

;)

Well, I may be a geek, but I'm no programmer!

OOC:

Syskeyia posts and magically there are almost 10 votes and ALL in favour of the monarchy JUST before the poll is closed. There has been fraud and I move that a public poll is established because this is just no fair.

Also its ridicilous that the Grand Duke would be more popular based on RP. Absolutely ridicilous.

Well, Knoot, if you had an election and everyone voted for the social conservatives, how would you RP it? :P

I would discount it because you would have committed fraud, as you have now. ;)

OOC: Or, well, do it but I will ICly and OOCly consider the poll to have been fraudulent.

OOC:

OK, to avoid talk of cheating, OOCly or ICly, I'll call for a public vote. Please post your votes here. I'll give everyone 24 hours, then I'll announce the results. That way we can have a vote that ICly will be recognized as legit - since that's what Saxmere wants to have: a legit vote.

I'll start by posting votes for the "involved parties" I RP:

"Saxmere" votes for Independence for Autonomy and for the Grand Duchy.

The "C.S.S." votes for Union for Autonomy and for a Republic.

Please post your votes.

Cheers.

OOC: There is no IC basis on which to regard the poll IC fradulent, but do as you wish.

Frankly, I believe that a large amount of fraud has happened both ways with the poll OOC, including you using your own puppets. Public polls are fraught with this sort of problem as I found out in the Pantocratorian elections.

Ultimately, Excalbia is free to take the results of these polls anyway he wants OOC and put them into his spreadsheet and do whatever with them, since we are talking about his country.

As for one side of the debate decrying the other about fraud, I would suggest that is a case of the pot calling the kettle black. I voted only with Pantocratoria, all I can say is that I committed no fraud, and that is all anybody can say in this sort of a poll.

"Pantocratoria" votes for Independence, Autonomy, and for the Grand Duchy.

Sorry, I wrote that last post before I saw Saxmere's post - Saxmere posted while I was still typing the thing!

OOC: Look just dont use a poll. It is silly.

Besides, you involved FAR more people who are for monarchy anyway so it has nothing to do with the will of the people of Saxmere. Rather the fact that I have stupidly agreed to play the part that isn't popular with the general OOC opinion.

Can't you just have a divided poll which is what you said their would be in telegrams to me before when I questioned the sanity of Knootian involvement anyway when it became apparent (or when I felt it become apparent) that I was not getting ANY IC popular support despite the rather stupid idea of people randomly supporting an new monarch who is obviously a puppet of foreign masters. You then assured me that Saxmere WAS in fact divided and I agreed to move on.

If I am to play the shallow "objectivist insurgents" atheist villains part that Syskeyia wants me to play then get someone else to be villains and I'll just have Knootians withdraw from the whole stupid situation which is what the majority of the OOC people want anyway. I mean, come on, if the Saxmere people are divided how can they ALL vote in favour of EVERY OOCly popular option?

I wash my hands of Panto accusations. Syskeyia has quite obviously committed massive voter fraud, perhaps even making new puppets specifically for this purpose. I have just 3 puppets which I used to compensate initially, but I refuse to hold all those votes overnight wihch are all Monarchy for a fair play.

Uhhh, okay...

Can I make a couple small suggestions? First, let's all remember this is a game with no bearing on our RL existence. I for one do this to relax and not to get stressed. Second, the poll was just a way of introducing a randomizing factor to see if it might nudge the results to something unexpected. If someone went back to the RP and read through it, I think they'd conclude that the vote would likely be close with a bare majority voting for independence. The vote on being a grand duchy I'd expect to be even closer, while the vote for autonomy would be pretty easy to predict. Oddly enough, those are just about the same results I'm seeing with my election spreadsheet.

Now, seeing as how things have kind of broken down with the poll, I'm thinking of just pulling the plug. I can randomize some other way and post the results ICly at the appropriate time in the New Order Rising thread. And the results will have clear IC implications. For instance, if the final vote for independence or a grand duchy end up being less that 51%, I suspect that there will quite a lot of controversy in Saxmere, including demands to invalidate the referenda.

So, even if you are on the "losing" side of the referendum, don't give up. The vote is just the beginning, not the end.

Finally, to Panto: your point is proven. When I hold Excalbia's elections there will be no poll; instead I'll ask those I've RP'd with and who show interest in my election thread to tg me their votes.

Syskeyia has quite obviously committed massive voter fraud, perhaps even making new puppets specifically for this purpose.
I voted once. That's all. I promise you that. If I have committed voter fraud, may the mods (with evidence to prove said fraud) ban me and all my countries.

As for my vote:

Independance, autonomy, and the Grand Duchy.

Independance, autonomy, and the grand duchy

Non-Independance, Autonomy, Republican.

Of course, my IC opinion might differ from that. Just found that selection interesting from an OCC perpective.

Uhhh, okay...

Can I make a couple small suggestions? First, let's all remember this is a game with no bearing on our RL existence. I for one do this to relax and not to get stressed. Second, the poll was just a way of introducing a randomizing factor to see if it might nudge the results to something unexpected. If someone went back to the RP and read through it, I think they'd conclude that the vote would likely be close with a bare majority voting for independence. The vote on being a grand duchy I'd expect to be even closer, while the vote for autonomy would be pretty easy to predict. Oddly enough, those are just about the same results I'm seeing with my election spreadsheet.

Now, seeing as how things have kind of broken down with the poll, I'm thinking of just pulling the plug. I can randomize some other way and post the results ICly at the appropriate time in the New Order Rising thread. And the results will have clear IC implications. For instance, if the final vote for independence or a grand duchy end up being less that 51%, I suspect that there will quite a lot of controversy in Saxmere, including demands to invalidate the referenda.

So, even if you are on the "losing" side of the referendum, don't give up. The vote is just the beginning, not the end.

Finally, to Panto: your point is proven. When I hold Excalbia's elections there will be no poll; instead I'll ask those I've RP'd with and who show interest in my election thread to tg me their votes.

I hold a poll in my own elections but this is solely for my own amusement. Polls in NS are just a disaster. And as I have a system of proportional representation in the DDR, there is really little point in establishing a coded system unless I would indeed go and code for every focus group.

If all RP was about OOC popularity contests I might as well stop roleplaying in NS entirely, being OOCly about as hated as can be without being Alllanea. If RP was about that sort of shit then I wouldn't be participating.

You'll also get a TG now.

I don't hate you, Knoot! *cuddles*

I like it when you're the "bad guy" because you make the best kind of bad guy. When you're doing something evil and imperialist, you're a country pursuing a geopolitical and to some extent ideological agenda by unscrupulous means. You're not some cartoonish supervillain or madman or demon lord or fascist fundamentalist lunatic. You're a measured, realistic adversary and that's the best kind. Being your ally and a typical "good guy", it also gives me more tension to roleplay that way.

Of course, if you don't want to be the bad guy in rps anymore, stop taking bad guy roles. You can stop being the infiltrator, secret society guy or the prince blackmailing guy and further Knootian interests by more accepted means.

Of course, good guy and bad guy are matters of perspective on NS anyway. But, if something about your nation or how you fit into rps bothers you, just change it. Hell, look at how much I changed recently.

Either way, much love.

EDIT: But the name of my capital is TARANA. Tanara is someone else's nation name. Bad Knooty!

Of course, if you don't want to be the bad guy in rps anymore, stop taking bad guy roles. You can stop being the infiltrator, secret society guy or the prince blackmailing guy and further Knootian interests by more accepted means.

Well, from an outsider's perspective, I figured that in this thread everybody was trying to do the same: install a puppet government in Saxmere. Bad everybody!http://www.elite-games.ru/conference/images/smiles/old.gif

And since I have like 10 hours left to vote... I shall vote:

Against Independence, Status-quo, Republic

OOCly - just because.

ICly - because the small, but very noisy Europolis(former small Knootian possession where inhabitants have dual citizency) minority in the Dutch-speaking Democratic Conservative Party would prod the rest of the lazy DCP (composed by far and large by the Dutchies of Vortex Corp. origin) into prodding the Conservative Party into supporting such a motion in Parliament. Which they would, because as crazy as it sounds, but a several dozen millenia old monarchy where the divine right to rule is obvious as daylight in, well, day (the Grand Duke has to give an oath of faith to the Seven Deities before being entrusted with the Sword of Rulers, aka the Taraskovyan equivalent for crown) has more ties to the DDR than to the various monarchies at game here. Well, anyway, since the CP holds more than 50% of both chambers of the Parliament all by itself, it is obvious what kind of recommendation on foreign policy in this particular case it will issue to the Government. And since the Government is, basicly, the Grand Duke and some guys he can dismiss anytime, and the Grand Duke is chaps with the CP (they aren't leading the Loyalist Coalition for nothing, eh?), he would follow the recommendation.
http://www.elite-games.ru/conference/images/smiles/eyes.gif
But then again, all this would be done only if there was an absolute necessity for the Grand Duchy (three-quarters Eastern Orthodox, with the Patriarchate playing quite a big role, obviously) to intervene in a hornet nest of Catholics, Protestants and... Handists... Whateverists <.<

Now how about that for an IC excuse? :p
A-ah... I feel inspired at 5am in the morning.
*goes back to trying to kill insomnia by falling asleep*

P.S. Those who didn't understand anything in the IC excuse thing (which wouldn't surprise me because I got confused myself upon rereading), this (http://ns.goobergunch.net/wiki/index.php/Tarasovka#Politics) and the various links included within should help. I hope :confused: